FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayMEAC

0:3

HomeNEC

Mercyhurst def. Morgan St. 3–0

(26-24, 25-23, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MORGAN	24	23	22	0
MERCYH	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERCYH above 50 · MORGAN below

Biggest swing: 9.4% to Morgan St. — set 1, MORGAN 24-24 MERCYH. Morgan St. ace on Team. MERCYH win probability 69% → 59%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MORGAN 40.7%59.3% MERCYH

Morgan St. wins

3-0

9.0%

3-1

14.9%

3-2

16.8%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

16.8%

3-1

22.6%

3-2

19.8%

MORGAN break %: 43.7% vs this opp
MERCYH break %: 45.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MORGAN serverAce+9.4%
Morgan St. ace on Team
Set 1 · MORGAN 24-24 MERCYH · MORGAN 31% → 41%
02
MERCYH serverAce+9.1%
Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 1 · MORGAN 24-26 MERCYH · MERCYH 67% → 76%
03
Julia ShepherdKill+8.7%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 2 · MORGAN 23-24 MERCYH · MERCYH 74% → 82%
04
MERCYH serverAce+8.3%
Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 2 · MORGAN 23-25 MERCYH · MERCYH 82% → 91%
05
MORGAN serverService error+7.6%
Morgan St. service error
Set 1 · MORGAN 24-25 MERCYH · MERCYH 59% → 67%
06
Ava CarneyKill+6.7%
Kill by Ava Carney (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 2 · MORGAN 23-23 MERCYH · MERCYH 67% → 74%
07
MERCYH serverAce+6.2%
Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 1 · MORGAN 21-22 MERCYH · MERCYH 58% → 64%
08
Roslyn GuerraKill+5.9%
Kill by Roslyn Guerra (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 1 · MORGAN 21-23 MERCYH · MERCYH 64% → 70%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Morgan St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Aubrey WilsonMB	3	8	1	9	.778	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	9
8Tre'Niya MillerMB	3	6	2	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
1Jada WilliamsMB	3	4	6	18	-.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
4Isabelle BrownS	3	3	0	5	.600	26	0	3	10	0	0	0	0	3
9Michaela PanekovaOH	2	6	3	16	.188	0	0	1	5	4	1	1	1.5	7.5
10Nathalia MoraisOH	2	6	3	16	.188	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
5Bailey SwintonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
21Kira DevriezeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
6Tameary WardlawL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	0
2Azra ArslanogluOH	2	5	2	15	.200	2	0	1	5	1	1	0	1	6
16Zayda ThomasOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
13Alaina WalkerS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	20	102	.186	36	2	11	39	7	3	6	6	69

Mercyhursthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Ava CarneyMB	3	9	1	14	.571	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	12.5
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	11	5	20	.300	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
8Madison MinerOH	3	3	2	16	.063	2	0	3	5	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	0	–	19	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	3
26Anna LoganDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	3	3	17	.000	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
9Payton MelinOPP	2	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
4Aliyah AngeliciS	2	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Mya ComerS	2	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
7Kalyani OliveOH	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Sarah BarnumMB	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		36	19	100	.170	32	7	8	38	2	3	6	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 MORGAN · MERCYH 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 MORGANMERCYH 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 MORGANMERCYH 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 MORGANMERCYH 4

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Morgan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Morgan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%8/21	30%3/10
2	67%8/12	47%7/15
3	75%6/8	43%6/14
4	46%6/13	40%4/10
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	43%6/14	33%3/9
All	53%40/75	41%29/70

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	47%7/15
2	47%8/17	58%11/19
3	60%6/10	25%2/8
4	67%6/9	40%4/10
5	46%6/13	33%3/9
6	75%6/8	57%8/14
All	59%41/70	47%35/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

145 rallies

Rally log

#	MORGAN-MERCYH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
2	1-1	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.9
3	2-1	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
4	2-2	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.9
5	3-2	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+2.0
6	4-2	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+2.5
7	5-2	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+2.5
8	5-3	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
9	5-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Jada Williams		+2.5
10	5-5	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+2.5
11	5-6	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Michaela Panekova	+2.6
12	6-6	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Tameary Wardlaw	+2.1
13	7-6	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Michaela Panekova		+2.7
14	8-6	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Anna Logan	blk Aubrey Wilson	+2.8
15	8-7	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+2.1
16	9-7	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+2.3
17	9-8	MORGAN	MERCYH	Bad set	Kira Devrieze		+2.2
18	9-9	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Jada Williams		+2.8
19	10-9	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+2.4
20	10-10	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Roslyn Guerra, Ava Carney	+2.4
21	10-11	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.0
22	11-11	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+2.4
23	11-12	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+2.5
24	12-12	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+2.5
25	13-12	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Bailey Swinton	+3.3
26	13-13	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Nathalia Morais	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+2.6
27	13-14	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alaina Walker	+3.4
28	14-14	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Alaina Walker	+2.7
29	14-15	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+2.8
30	15-15	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+2.9
31	15-16	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+3.0
32	16-16	MERCYH	MORGAN×4	Serve err	MERCYH server		+3.0
33	17-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Sydney Forcht		+4.1
34	18-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Kira Devrieze	+4.1
35	19-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+3.8
36	19-17	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+2.5
37	19-18	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+3.9
38	19-19	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Payton Melin	+4.6
39	19-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+4.9
40	20-20	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Alaina Walker	+4.0
41	21-20	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova		+5.6
42	21-21	MORGAN	MERCYH×3	Serve err	MORGAN server		+4.4
43	21-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Michaela Panekova	+6.2
44	21-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+5.9
45	22-23	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+3.6
46	22-24	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney		+5.6
47	23-24	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+3.3
48	24-24	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Team	+9.4
49	24-25	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+7.6
50	24-26	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Michaela Panekova	+9.1
Set 2
1	0-1	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Madison Miner	+1.7
2	1-1	MERCYH	MORGAN	Attack err	Julia Shepherd	blk Tre'Niya Miller, Michaela Panekova	+1.7
3	1-2	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.7
4	2-2	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+1.7
5	3-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Madison Miner		+2.3
6	3-3	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.8
7	4-3	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+1.9
8	5-3	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Julia Shepherd	blk Azra Arslanoglu	+2.3
9	5-4	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
10	6-4	MERCYH	MORGAN×4	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
11	7-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Payton Melin		+2.4
12	8-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Mia Mattingly	blk Michaela Panekova	+2.3
13	9-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+2.1
14	9-5	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.4
15	9-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Isabelle Brown	+2.0
16	10-6	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+1.9
17	10-7	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Jada Williams		+1.6
18	11-7	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Azra Arslanoglu	+1.9
19	12-7	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Payton Melin		+2.1
20	12-8	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.4
21	12-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+2.1
22	12-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+2.4
23	12-11	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney		+2.7
24	13-11	MERCYH	MORGAN×5	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+2.4
25	14-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Tameary Wardlaw	+2.9
26	15-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Azra Arslanoglu	+2.6
27	16-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+2.2
28	17-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+1.8
29	17-12	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.0
30	18-12	MERCYH	MORGAN	Attack err	Kalyani Olive		+1.4
31	18-13	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.9
32	19-13	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Kira Devrieze	+1.4
33	19-14	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.9
34	19-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Jada Williams		+1.5
35	19-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+2.1
36	19-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+2.8
37	20-17	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+3.0
38	21-17	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kalyani Olive		+3.0
39	21-18	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+1.6
40	22-18	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+2.4
41	22-19	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.4
42	22-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller	blk Ava Carney	+2.8
43	23-20	MERCYH	MORGAN	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+3.5
44	23-21	MORGAN	MERCYH×5	Serve err	MORGAN server		+2.0
45	23-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+4.3
46	23-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+6.7
47	23-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+8.7
48	23-25	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Michaela Panekova	+8.3
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Nathalia Morais	+1.3
2	0-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+1.2
3	1-2	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+1.0
4	2-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Ava Carney	blk Zayda Thomas, Tre'Niya Miller	+1.3
5	2-3	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Madison Miner	+1.1
6	2-4	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.3
7	3-4	MERCYH	MORGAN	Attack err	Madison Miner	blk Tre'Niya Miller, Zayda Thomas	+1.0
8	4-4	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+1.4
9	4-5	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+1.1
10	5-5	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.1
11	5-6	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Sydney Forcht	+1.1
12	6-6	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.2
13	6-7	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.2
14	7-7	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.2
15	7-8	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+1.2
16	8-8	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.2
17	9-8	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Tameary Wardlaw	+1.6
18	9-9	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Mya Comer	+1.3
19	10-9	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.3
20	11-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
21	12-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+1.6
22	12-10	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+1.2
23	13-10	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	MERCYH server		+1.4
24	13-11	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Azra Arslanoglu	blk Ava Carney	+1.2
25	14-11	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+1.4
26	15-11	MORGAN	MORGAN	Bad set	Alyssa Krause		+1.6
27	15-12	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+1.0
28	15-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Azra Arslanoglu	+1.6
29	16-13	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+1.5
30	16-14	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+1.3
31	17-14	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Mya Comer	+1.6
32	17-15	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Sarah Barnum	set Mya Comer	+1.3
33	17-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+2.0
34	17-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+2.2
35	17-18	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Azra Arslanoglu		+2.3
36	18-18	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
37	18-19	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+2.0
38	18-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Roslyn Guerra	+2.4
39	19-20	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
40	19-21	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+2.1
41	19-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller		+2.2
42	19-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Ava Carney, Madison Miner	+1.5
43	19-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Tameary Wardlaw	+0.7
44	20-24	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
45	21-24	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.4
46	22-24	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.0
47	22-25	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8

Score shown after each rally, Morgan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.