Morgan State vs Mercyhurst Volleyball: Mercyhurst Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026 · Neutral site

0:3

Mercyhurst beat Morgan St. 3-0 (26-24, 25-23, 25-22) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026 at a neutral site. Mercyhurst's Julia Shepherd led with 11 kills, and Kelsie Gaiter-Davis added 9 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Sep 18

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MORGAN	24	23	22	0
MERCYH	26	25	25	3

Win probability

Mercyhurst above 50 · Morgan St. below

Biggest swing: 11.5% to Mercyhurst — set 2, MORGAN 23-25 MERCYH. Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova. MERCYH win probability 72% → 83%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MORGAN 60.1%39.9% MERCYH

Morgan St. wins

3-0

17.3%

3-1

23.0%

3-2

19.9%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

8.7%

3-1

14.5%

3-2

16.6%

MORGAN break %: 45.3% vs this opp
MERCYH break %: 43.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
MercyhurstAce+11.5%
Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 2 · MORGAN 23-25 MERCYH · MERCYH 72% → 83%
02
Julia ShepherdKill+11.0%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 2 · MORGAN 23-24 MERCYH · MERCYH 61% → 72%
03
MercyhurstAce+10.3%
Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 1 · MORGAN 24-26 MERCYH · MERCYH 50% → 61%
04
Morgan St.Ace+9.9%
Morgan St. ace
Set 1 · MORGAN 24-24 MERCYH · MORGAN 48% → 58%
05
Ava CarneyKill+8.0%
Kill by Ava Carney (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 2 · MORGAN 23-23 MERCYH · MERCYH 53% → 61%
06
Morgan St.Service error+7.9%
Morgan St. service error
Set 1 · MORGAN 24-25 MERCYH · MERCYH 42% → 50%
07
Roslyn GuerraKill+6.5%
Kill by Roslyn Guerra (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 1 · MORGAN 21-23 MERCYH · MERCYH 47% → 54%
08
MercyhurstAce+6.5%
Mercyhurst ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 1 · MORGAN 21-22 MERCYH · MERCYH 41% → 47%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Morgan St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Aubrey WilsonMB	3	8	1	9	.778	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	9
8Tre'Niya MillerMB	3	6	2	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
1Jada WilliamsMB	3	4	6	18	-.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
4Isabelle BrownS	3	3	0	5	.600	26	0	3	10	0	0	0	0	3
9Michaela PanekovaOH	2	6	3	16	.188	0	0	1	5	4	1	1	1.5	7.5
10Nathalia MoraisOH	2	6	3	16	.188	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
5Bailey SwintonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
21Kira DevriezeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
6Tameary WardlawL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	0
2Azra ArslanogluOH	2	5	2	15	.200	2	0	1	5	1	1	0	1	6
16Zayda ThomasOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
13Alaina WalkerS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	20	102	.186	36	2	11	39	7	3	6	6	69

Mercyhursthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Ava CarneyMB	3	9	1	14	.571	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	12.5
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	11	5	20	.300	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
8Madison MinerOH	3	3	2	16	.063	2	0	3	5	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	0	–	19	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	3
26Anna LoganDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	3	3	17	.000	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
9Payton MelinOPP	2	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
4Aliyah AngeliciS	2	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Mya ComerS	2	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
7Kalyani OliveOH	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Sarah BarnumMB	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		36	19	100	.170	32	7	8	38	2	3	6	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MORGAN · MERCYH 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 MORGANMERCYH 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 MORGANMERCYH 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 MORGANMERCYH 4

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Morgan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Morgan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%8/21	30%3/10
2	67%8/12	47%7/15
3	75%6/8	43%6/14
4	46%6/13	40%4/10
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	43%6/14	33%3/9
All	53%40/75	41%29/70

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	47%7/15
2	47%8/17	58%11/19
3	60%6/10	25%2/8
4	67%6/9	40%4/10
5	46%6/13	33%3/9
6	75%6/8	57%8/14
All	59%41/70	47%35/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

145 rallies

#	MORGAN-MERCYH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+1.8
2	1-1	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
3	2-1	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
4	2-2	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.9
5	3-2	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
6	4-2	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+2.3
7	5-2	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+2.2
8	5-3	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.7
9	5-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Jada Williams		+2.3
10	5-5	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+2.5
11	5-6	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Michaela Panekova	+2.7
12	6-6	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Tameary Wardlaw	+2.1
13	7-6	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Michaela Panekova		+2.6
14	8-6	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Blocked	Anna Logan	blk Aubrey Wilson	+2.6
15	8-7	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+2.0
16	9-7	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.1
17	9-8	MORGAN	MERCYH	Bad set	Kira Devrieze		+2.1
18	9-9	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Jada Williams		+2.8
19	10-9	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+2.3
20	10-10	MORGAN	MERCYH	Blocked	Jada Williams	blk Roslyn Guerra, Ava Carney	+2.3
21	10-11	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.1
22	11-11	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+2.4
23	11-12	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+2.6
24	12-12	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+2.5
25	13-12	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Bailey Swinton	+3.2
26	13-13	MORGAN	MERCYH	Blocked	Nathalia Morais	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+2.6
27	13-14	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alaina Walker	+3.5
28	14-14	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Alaina Walker	+2.7
29	14-15	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+2.9
30	15-15	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.8
31	15-16	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+3.1
32	16-16	MERCYH	MORGAN×4	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+3.0
33	17-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Sydney Forcht		+3.9
34	18-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Kira Devrieze	+3.8
35	19-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+3.4
36	19-17	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+2.2
37	19-18	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+3.7
38	19-19	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Michaela Panekova	blk Payton Melin	+4.5
39	19-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+5.1
40	20-20	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Alaina Walker	+3.9
41	21-20	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova		+5.5
42	21-21	MORGAN	MERCYH×3	Serve err	Morgan St.		+4.3
43	21-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Michaela Panekova	+6.5
44	21-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+6.5
45	22-23	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+3.7
46	22-24	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney		+6.1
47	23-24	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+3.6
48	24-24	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	Morgan St.		+9.9
49	24-25	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+7.9
50	24-26	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Michaela Panekova	+10.3
Set 2
1	0-1	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Madison Miner	+2.1
2	1-1	MERCYH	MORGAN	Blocked	Julia Shepherd	blk Tre'Niya Miller, Michaela Panekova	+2.1
3	1-2	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+2.2
4	2-2	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.1
5	3-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Madison Miner		+2.7
6	3-3	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+2.2
7	4-3	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.2
8	5-3	MORGAN	MORGAN	Blocked	Julia Shepherd	blk Azra Arslanoglu	+2.7
9	5-4	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.1
10	6-4	MERCYH	MORGAN×4	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+2.2
11	7-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Payton Melin		+2.6
12	8-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Blocked	Mia Mattingly	blk Michaela Panekova	+2.3
13	9-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+2.1
14	9-5	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.4
15	9-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Isabelle Brown	+2.2
16	10-6	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.9
17	10-7	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Jada Williams		+1.7
18	11-7	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Azra Arslanoglu	+2.0
19	12-7	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Payton Melin		+2.1
20	12-8	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Serve err	Morgan St.		+1.4
21	12-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+2.2
22	12-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+2.7
23	12-11	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney		+3.1
24	13-11	MERCYH	MORGAN×5	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+2.7
25	14-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Tameary Wardlaw	+3.1
26	15-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Azra Arslanoglu	+2.7
27	16-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Ace	Morgan St.	aced Roslyn Guerra	+2.2
28	17-11	MORGAN	MORGAN×5	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+1.7
29	17-12	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+1.0
30	18-12	MERCYH	MORGAN	Attack err	Kalyani Olive		+1.3
31	18-13	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+0.9
32	19-13	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Kira Devrieze	+1.2
33	19-14	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.8
34	19-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Jada Williams		+1.5
35	19-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+2.2
36	19-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+3.1
37	20-17	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+3.1
38	21-17	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kalyani Olive		+3.0
39	21-18	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+1.6
40	22-18	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+2.4
41	22-19	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+1.4
42	22-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Tre'Niya Miller	blk Ava Carney	+3.0
43	23-20	MERCYH	MORGAN	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+3.6
44	23-21	MORGAN	MERCYH×5	Serve err	Morgan St.		+2.2
45	23-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+4.9
46	23-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+8.0
47	23-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+11.0
48	23-25	MERCYH	MERCYH×5	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Michaela Panekova	+11.5
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Nathalia Morais	+1.9
2	0-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+2.0
3	1-2	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.5
4	2-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Blocked	Ava Carney	blk Zayda Thomas, Tre'Niya Miller	+2.0
5	2-3	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Madison Miner	+1.6
6	2-4	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.1
7	3-4	MERCYH	MORGAN	Blocked	Madison Miner	blk Tre'Niya Miller, Zayda Thomas	+1.6
8	4-4	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+2.0
9	4-5	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+1.7
10	5-5	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
11	5-6	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Sydney Forcht	+1.7
12	6-6	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
13	6-7	MORGAN	MERCYH	Serve err	Morgan St.		+1.8
14	7-7	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
15	7-8	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+1.8
16	8-8	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.8
17	9-8	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Tameary Wardlaw	+2.3
18	9-9	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Mya Comer	+1.8
19	10-9	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
20	11-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+2.3
21	12-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+2.1
22	12-10	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+1.6
23	13-10	MERCYH	MORGAN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.7
24	13-11	MORGAN	MERCYH	Blocked	Azra Arslanoglu	blk Ava Carney	+1.6
25	14-11	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+1.8
26	15-11	MORGAN	MORGAN	Bad set	Alyssa Krause		+2.0
27	15-12	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+1.3
28	15-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Azra Arslanoglu	+2.1
29	16-13	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
30	16-14	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+1.7
31	17-14	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Mya Comer	+2.0
32	17-15	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Sarah Barnum	set Mya Comer	+1.8
33	17-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+2.7
34	17-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+3.2
35	17-18	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Azra Arslanoglu		+3.6
36	18-18	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+2.8
37	18-19	MORGAN	MERCYH	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+3.1
38	18-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Roslyn Guerra	+3.9
39	19-20	MERCYH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+2.7
40	19-21	MORGAN	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.4
41	19-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller		+3.7
42	19-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Jada Williams	blk Ava Carney, Madison Miner	+2.6
43	19-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Tameary Wardlaw	+1.3
44	20-24	MERCYH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Azra Arslanoglu	set Isabelle Brown	+0.3
45	21-24	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.8
46	22-24	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
47	22-25	MORGAN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+3.0

Score shown after each rally, Morgan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Mercyhurst def. Morgan St. 3–0