Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026

Ohio def. Mercyhurst 3–1

Ohio beat visiting Mercyhurst 3-1 (25-22, 25-16, 16-25, 25-20) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026. Ohio's Torre Kildow led with 14 kills.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
MERCYH221625201
OHIO252516253

Win probability

Ohio above 50 · Mercyhurst below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.0% MERCYHrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.0% to Mercyhurst — set 4, MERCYH 14-11 OHIO. Attack error by Emily Waddell. OHIO win probability 93% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCYH 2.5%97.5% OHIO

Mercyhurst wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.7%
3-2
1.6%

Ohio wins

3-0
64.4%
3-1
26.4%
3-2
6.7%
MERCYH break %
34.8% vs this opp
OHIO break %
49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Emily WaddellAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Emily Waddell

    Set 4 · MERCYH 14-11 OHIO · MERCYH 7% → 9%

  2. 02
    Rose MahinAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Rose Mahin

    Set 4 · MERCYH 17-17 OHIO · MERCYH 3% → 5%

  3. 03
    MercyhurstAce+1.6%

    Mercyhurst ace

    Set 4 · MERCYH 9-2 OHIO · MERCYH 11% → 12%

  4. 04
    Rose MahinKill+1.6%

    Kill by Rose Mahin (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 4 · MERCYH 14-13 OHIO · OHIO 92% → 94%

  5. 05
    MercyhurstAce+1.6%

    Mercyhurst ace on Gentry Brown

    Set 4 · MERCYH 7-0 OHIO · MERCYH 10% → 11%

  6. 06
    Madison MinerKill+1.6%

    Kill by Madison Miner

    Set 4 · MERCYH 10-2 OHIO · MERCYH 12% → 14%

  7. 07
    Rose MahinAttack error+1.5%

    Attack error by Rose Mahin

    Set 4 · MERCYH 6-0 OHIO · MERCYH 8% → 10%

  8. 08
    Torre KildowKill+1.5%

    Kill by Torre Kildow (set by Darbi Ricketts)

    Set 4 · MERCYH 18-20 OHIO · OHIO 96% → 98%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413426.3460004000013
410334.20610181010.510.5
46318.16700010031.57.5
43211.09100220010.53.5
4102.50022211100003
4113.000011200002
45618-.05600020111.56.5
4419.333000001015
41011.0001010300002
4015-.200000010211
4000–300000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–001000000
4000–000000000
4000–2001100000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–303410000
4000–000000000
Team totals4421127.181414948328683
Ohiohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414429.34500031111.515.5
411320.40002030010.513.5
49322.2730125012212
47732.00010361111.58.5
45110.40000010132.57.5
4000–1801600000
44313.07700000313.57.5
4315.400230010010.53.5
4125-.200100410001
4000–000000000
4000–201000000
4000–000000000
4000–201800000
4000–100500000
22Lacy MarxL/DS
4000–000800000
4000–000000000
Team totals5424136.22148385047101291

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MERCYH · OHIO 4

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 MERCYHOHIO 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 MERCYHOHIO 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 4 MERCYHOHIO 3

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 7 MERCYHOHIO 4

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = Mercyhurst leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercyhurst

No clean sets to split.

Ohio

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#MERCYH-OHIOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1OHIOOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+0.3
20-2OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.3
31-2OHIOMERCYH×3Serve errOhio+0.2
42-2MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errBailey Blair+0.4
53-2MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errTorre Kildow+0.4
63-3MERCYHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+0.3
74-3OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.4
84-4MERCYHOHIO×4Serve errMercyhurst+0.3
94-5OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
104-6OHIOOHIO×4KillMadison Miner+0.3
114-7OHIOOHIO×4KillTorre Kildow+0.3
125-7OHIOMERCYHServe errOhio+0.2
13–146-8MERCYH · OHIO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
156-9MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Mya Comer+0.2
167-9OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Miner+0.2
178-9MERCYHMERCYHKillPayton Melinset Mya Comer+0.4
188-10MERCYHOHIOKillRowan Kellyset Kendall Hickey+0.3
199-10OHIOMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+0.3
209-11MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst+0.3
2110-11OHIOMERCYHAttack errRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+0.3
2210-12MERCYHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+0.3
2311-12OHIOMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Sydney Forcht+0.3
2411-13MERCYHOHIOKillRose Mahin+0.3
2512-13OHIOMERCYHBlockedBailey Blairblk Madison Miner, Ava Carney+0.4
2612-14MERCYHOHIOBlockedJulia Shepherdblk Torre Kildow, Emily Waddell+0.3
2712-15OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+0.4
2813-15OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+0.3
2913-16MERCYHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+0.3
3014-16OHIOMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+0.3
3114-17MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.3
3215-17OHIOMERCYHBlockedOlivia Gardnerblk Roslyn Guerra+0.3
3316-17MERCYHMERCYHAttack errRose Mahin+0.6
3416-18MERCYHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.4
3517-18OHIOMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Mya Comer+0.5
3618-18MERCYHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.9
3718-19MERCYHOHIOBlockedRoslyn Guerrablk Rose Mahin+0.6
3819-19OHIOMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+0.8
3919-20MERCYHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Lillie Meinhart+0.7
4019-21OHIOOHIOBlockedJulia Shepherdblk Torre Kildow+0.8
4120-21OHIOMERCYHServe errOhio+0.6
4220-22MERCYHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Lillie Meinhart+0.6
4321-22OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Miner+0.6
4421-23MERCYHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+0.7
4522-23MERCYH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
4622-24MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.9
4722-25OHIOOHIOBlockedRoslyn Guerrablk Olivia Gardner, Rowan Kelly+0.5
Set 2
10-1MERCYHOHIOKillCienna Lapsley+0.1
20-2OHIOOHIOBlockedAva Carneyblk Cienna Lapsley+0.2
31-2MERCYH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
42-2MERCYHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+0.2
52-3MERCYHOHIO×4Attack errRoslyn Guerraset Bailey Blair+0.1
62-4OHIOOHIO×4Attack errRoslyn Guerra+0.2
72-5OHIOOHIO×4BlockedJulia Shepherdblk Bailey Blair, Cienna Lapsley+0.1
82-6OHIOOHIO×4KillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
93-6OHIOMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+0.1
103-7MERCYHOHIOBlockedMadison Minerblk Bailey Blair+0.1
114-7OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.1
124-8MERCYHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
135-8OHIOMERCYH×3Serve errOhio+0.1
146-8MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errTorre Kildow+0.2
157-8MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Rose Mahin+0.2
167-9MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.2
178-9OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Mya Comer+0.2
189-9MERCYHMERCYHBlockedEmily Waddellblk Mia Mattingly, Roslyn Guerra+0.3
199-10MERCYHOHIOKillRose Mahin+0.2
209-11OHIOOHIOAttack errMadison Miner+0.3
2110-11OHIOMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Mya Comer+0.2
2210-12MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst+0.2
2310-13OHIOOHIOAttack errRoslyn Guerra+0.2
2411-13OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Miner+0.2
2512-13MERCYHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.3
2612-14MERCYHOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Gentry Brown+0.2
2712-15OHIOOHIO×3BlockedAva Carneyblk Cienna Lapsley+0.2
2812-16OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.2
2913-16OHIOMERCYHServe errOhio+0.1
3013-17MERCYHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
3113-18OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
3214-18OHIOMERCYHAttack errEmily Waddellset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
3314-19MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst+0.1
3414-20OHIOOHIOAttack errMia Mattingly+0.1
3515-20OHIOMERCYHAttack errRowan Kellyset Torre Kildow·
3615-21MERCYHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly·
3716-21OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Mya Comer·
3816-22MERCYHOHIO×4KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly·
3916-23OHIOOHIO×4KillCienna Lapsleyset Rowan Kelly·
4016-24OHIOOHIO×4KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly·
4116-25OHIOOHIO×4Attack errPayton Melin·
Set 3
11-0OHIOMERCYH×4Attack errTorre Kildow+0.1
22-0MERCYHMERCYH×4KillJulia Shepherdset Kelsie Gaiter-davis+0.1
33-0MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errCienna Lapsley+0.2
44-0MERCYHMERCYH×4AceMercyhurstaced Torre Kildow+0.2
54-1MERCYHOHIOKillCienna Lapsleyset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
65-1OHIOMERCYH×4Serve errOhio+0.1
76-1MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errTorre Kildow+0.2
87-1MERCYHMERCYH×4KillKelsie Gaiter-davis+0.2
98-1MERCYHMERCYH×4KillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+0.2
108-2MERCYHOHIOKillCienna Lapsleyset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
119-2OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.2
129-3MERCYHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
1310-3OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Sydney Forcht+0.2
1410-4MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.1
1511-4OHIOMERCYHBlockedRose Mahinblk Payton Melin+0.2
1612-4MERCYHMERCYHAttack errGentry Brown+0.2
1712-5MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.1
1813-5OHIOMERCYHKillPayton Melinset Aliyah Angelici+0.2
1914-5MERCYHMERCYHAttack errCienna Lapsley+0.2
2014-6MERCYHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.1
2115-6OHIOMERCYH×3Attack errBailey Blairset Gentry Brown+0.1
2216-6MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedCienna Lapsleyblk Kalyani Olive, Ava Carney+0.1
2317-6MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errRose Mahin+0.1
2417-7MERCYHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart·
2518-7OHIOMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+0.1
2618-8MERCYHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart·
2719-8OHIOMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause·
28–2920-9MERCYH · OHIO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
3020-10MERCYHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rose Mahin·
3121-10OHIOMERCYHKillMadison Miner·
3221-11MERCYHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Bryn Janke·
3321-12OHIOOHIOAttack errMia Mattingly·
3422-12OHIOMERCYHKillPayton Melinset Aliyah Angelici·
3522-13MERCYHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Bryn Janke·
3622-14OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
3722-15OHIOOHIO×3BlockedKalyani Oliveblk Cienna Lapsley·
3823-15OHIOMERCYHKillAlyssa Krauseset Madison Miner+0.1
3923-16MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst·
4024-16OHIOMERCYHBlockedGentry Brownblk Ava Carney, Kalyani Olive·
4125-16MERCYHMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause·
Set 4
11-0MERCYHMERCYH×7Attack errRose Mahinset Darbi Ricketts+0.8
22-0MERCYHMERCYH×7KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.0
33-0MERCYHMERCYH×7KillJulia Shepherdset Kelsie Gaiter-davis+1.2
44-0MERCYHMERCYH×7Ball handlingLillie Meinhart+1.3
55-0MERCYHMERCYH×7KillAnna Loganset Alyssa Krause+1.5
66-0MERCYHMERCYH×7Attack errRose Mahin+1.5
77-0MERCYHMERCYH×7AceMercyhurstaced Gentry Brown+1.6
87-1MERCYHOHIOBlockedJulia Shepherdblk Bailey Blair, Olivia Gardner+0.8
97-2OHIOOHIOAttack errAnna Logan+1.2
108-2OHIOMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.2
119-2MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst+1.6
1210-2MERCYHMERCYH×3KillMadison Miner+1.6
1310-3MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst+0.8
1411-3OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.2
1511-4MERCYHOHIO×4KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+0.7
1611-5OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
1711-6OHIOOHIO×4KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.3
1811-7OHIOOHIO×4KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.4
1912-7OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.4
2012-8MERCYHOHIO×4KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.0
2112-9OHIOOHIO×4KillRowan Kellyset Mya Comer+1.5
2212-10OHIOOHIO×4Attack errMadison Miner+1.5
2312-11OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
2413-11OHIOMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+1.3
2514-11MERCYHMERCYHAttack errEmily Waddell+2.0
2614-12MERCYHOHIO×4Serve errMercyhurst+1.1
2714-13OHIOOHIO×4KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.6
2814-14OHIOOHIO×4AceOhioaced Kalyani Olive+1.5
2914-15OHIOOHIO×4AceOhioaced Sydney Forcht+1.3
3015-15OHIOMERCYHKillRose Mahin+1.1
3115-16MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst+1.0
3215-17OHIOOHIOBlockedAva Carneyblk Olivia Gardner+1.2
3316-17OHIOMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Mya Comer+0.9
3417-17MERCYHMERCYHAttack errRose Mahin+1.7
3517-18MERCYHOHIOBlockedRoslyn Guerrablk Olivia Gardner, Rose Mahin+1.2
3618-18OHIOMERCYHBad setRowan Kelly+1.4
3718-19MERCYHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.3
3818-20OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Darbi Ricketts+1.5
3919-20OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.1
4019-21MERCYHOHIOServe errMercyhurst+1.2
4120-21OHIOMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.1
4220-22MERCYHOHIO×4KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.3
4320-23OHIOOHIO×4Ball handlingMya Comer+1.2
4420-24OHIOOHIO×4KillEmily Waddellset Mya Comer+0.5
4520-25OHIOOHIO×4KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Mercyhurst first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).