Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 10, 2026

Butler def. Bellarmine 3–1

Butler beat visiting Bellarmine 3-1 (25-14, 25-18, 25-27, 25-18) on Thu, Sep 10, 2026. Zoe McDonald led Butler with 9 kills; Bellarmine's Mady Yaden had a match-high 13.

Data through · final Sep 10

Set1234Sets
BELLAR141827181
BUTLER252525253

Win probability

Butler above 50 · Bellarmine below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.0% BELLARrally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.0% to Bellarmine — set 3, BELLAR 27-25 BUTLER. Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes). BUTLER win probability 91% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BELLAR 23.6%76.4% BUTLER

Bellarmine wins

3-0
4.1%
3-1
8.0%
3-2
11.5%

Butler wins

3-0
28.2%
3-1
29.1%
3-2
19.1%
BELLAR break %
39.4% vs this opp
BUTLER break %
44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Erika SmithKill+4.0%

    Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 3 · BELLAR 27-25 BUTLER · BELLAR 9% → 13%

  2. 02

    Raegan Durbin stuffed by Maddie Carnes & Erika Smith

    Set 3 · BELLAR 26-25 BUTLER · BELLAR 5% → 9%

  3. 03
    ButlerAce+3.2%

    Butler ace on Abby Julius

    Set 3 · BELLAR 24-25 BUTLER · BUTLER 94% → 97%

  4. 04
    Erika SmithKill+2.6%

    Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 3 · BELLAR 24-23 BUTLER · BELLAR 6% → 9%

  5. 05
    BellarmineService error+2.6%

    Bellarmine service error

    Set 3 · BELLAR 24-24 BUTLER · BUTLER 91% → 94%

  6. 06
    Natalie BlandKill+2.6%

    Kill by Natalie Bland (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 4 · BELLAR 2-0 BUTLER · BELLAR 15% → 18%

  7. 07
    Mary HermanKill+2.4%

    Kill by Mary Herman (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 4 · BELLAR 1-0 BUTLER · BELLAR 13% → 15%

  8. 08
    Zoe McDonaldKill+2.4%

    Kill by Zoe McDonald (set by Kaylee Finnegan)

    Set 4 · BELLAR 2-2 BUTLER · BUTLER 84% → 86%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4131038.0791003112215
47517.118003501229
47621.048000200218
45527.000100620005
44222.091001100004
42010.20028151000214
4139-.222101210001
4001.000004400000
4000–003400000
4000–4002710000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals3931145.0553511764628677
Butlerhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49019.4740144026515
47418.16700010052.59.5
47431.097000141031.58.5
46527.037000100006
4112.0001514300002
3409.444000100426
44516-.06310020031.55.5
4000–5122100001
3001.000014500001
3000–811900001
2001.000800100000
1417.42900000010.54.5
1114.000000000001
1000–010000001
Team totals4321135.1633761562122213100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Bellarmine vs Butler

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 BELLAR · BUTLER 6

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 BELLARBUTLER 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 BELLARBUTLER 4

Set 3

27-25

Longest run 3 BELLARBUTLER 4

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 4 BELLARBUTLER 5

Bars above the line = Butler leads, below = Bellarmine leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Bellarmine

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
44%7/16
2
82%9/11
25%3/12
3
39%9/23
18%2/11
4
75%9/12
18%2/11
5
56%9/16
44%7/16
6
44%7/16
33%4/12
All
53%52/99
32%25/78

Butler

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
50%8/16
2
75%9/12
53%10/19
3
82%9/11
50%9/18
4
90%9/10
50%9/18
5
47%8/17
25%3/12
6
73%8/11
50%8/16
All
68%53/78
47%47/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#BELLAR-BUTLERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yaden+1.5
21-1BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+1.4
31-2BUTLERBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+1.9
42-2BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+1.4
52-3BELLARBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+1.4
63-3BUTLERBELLARAttack errChase Lemming+1.5
73-4BELLARBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+1.4
84-4BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+1.5
94-5BELLARBUTLER×3Serve errBellarmine+1.5
104-6BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errNatalie Bland+1.9
114-7BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errErika Smith+1.7
125-7BUTLERBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.2
135-8BELLARBUTLER×3KillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.2
145-9BUTLERBUTLER×3BlockedErika Smithblk Ellery Rees, Raegan Durbin+1.5
155-10BUTLERBUTLER×3KillEllery Reesset Ava Hunter+1.2
166-10BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+0.8
177-10BELLARBELLARAttack errRaegan Durbin+1.4
187-11BELLARBUTLERAttack errMary Herman+1.1
198-11BUTLERBELLARBlockedSawyer Jonesblk Mady Yaden, Mary Herman+1.0
208-12BELLARBUTLERBad setNatalie Bland+1.1
219-12BUTLERBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.0
2210-12BELLARBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Payton Parsons+1.8
2310-13BELLARBUTLER×6BlockedNatalie Blandblk Sawyer Jones, Zoe McDonald+1.4
2410-14BUTLERBUTLER×6AceButleraced Natalie Bland+1.7
2510-15BUTLERBUTLER×6KillZoe McDonald+1.3
2610-16BUTLERBUTLER×6KillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+0.9
2710-17BUTLERBUTLER×6Attack errMary Herman+0.6
2810-18BUTLERBUTLER×6BlockedNatalie Blandblk Maria Nix, Zoe McDonald+0.4
2911-18BUTLERBELLARAttack errChase Lemming+0.2
3011-19BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+0.2
3112-19BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+0.1
3212-20BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+0.2
3313-20BUTLERBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.1
3413-21BELLARBUTLER×3KillEllery Reesset Sarah Kempf+0.2
3513-22BUTLERBUTLER×3KillEllery Reesset Ava Long+0.1
3613-23BUTLERBUTLER×3BlockedErika Smithblk Ellery Rees, Raegan Durbin·
3714-23BUTLERBELLARServe errButler·
3814-24BELLARBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Ava Hunter·
3914-25BUTLERBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Jersey Loyer·
Set 2
10-1BELLARBUTLERAttack errMady Yaden+1.0
20-2BUTLERBUTLERAceButleraced Mady Yaden+1.3
31-2BUTLERBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Mady Yaden+1.0
41-3BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+1.0
52-3BUTLERBELLARAttack errMaria Nix+1.0
62-4BELLARBUTLER×3KillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.0
72-5BUTLERBUTLER×3KillRaegan Durbinset Maria Nix+1.3
82-6BUTLERBUTLER×3BlockedNatalie Blandblk Zoe McDonald, Maria Nix+1.1
93-6BUTLERBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+0.8
103-7BELLARBUTLERAttack errNatalie Bland+0.8
114-7BUTLERBELLAR×4Serve errButler+0.8
125-7BELLARBELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.3
136-7BELLARBELLAR×4BlockedMaria Nixblk Mady Yaden+1.5
147-7BELLARBELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.7
157-8BELLARBUTLERAttack errMady Yaden+1.2
168-8BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.3
178-9BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+1.3
189-9BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.4
199-10BELLARBUTLER×4BlockedMady Yadenblk Ellery Rees, Sawyer Jones+1.3
209-11BUTLERBUTLER×4BlockedMady Yadenblk Sawyer Jones, Zoe McDonald+1.7
219-12BUTLERBUTLER×4Attack errMary Herman+1.5
229-13BUTLERBUTLER×4KillZoe McDonald+1.3
2310-13BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.8
2410-14BELLARBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Ava Hunter+0.9
2511-14BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+0.8
2611-15BELLARBUTLER×3Serve errBellarmine+1.0
2711-16BUTLERBUTLER×3AceButleraced Natalie Bland+1.0
2811-17BUTLERBUTLER×3Bad setMaddie Carnes+0.7
2912-17BUTLERBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Payton Parsons+0.4
3012-18BELLARBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+0.5
3113-18BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+0.3
3213-19BELLARBUTLER×3Attack errMady Yaden+0.5
3313-20BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errErika Smith+0.4
3413-21BUTLERBUTLER×3AceButleraced Payton Parsons+0.2
3514-21BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+0.1
3614-22BELLARBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Jersey Loyer+0.1
3714-23BUTLERBUTLERKillTaylor Wathenset Ava Hunter·
3815-23BUTLERBELLAR×4BlockedSawyer Jonesblk Mady Yaden, Mary Herman·
3916-23BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errSawyer Jones·
4017-23BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errTaylor Wathen+0.1
4118-23BELLARBELLAR×4KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.1
4218-24BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+0.2
4318-25BUTLERBUTLERAttack errMady Yaden+0.1
Set 3
10-1BUTLERBUTLERKillEllery Rees+0.7
21-1BUTLERBELLAR×3Bad setAva Hunter+0.6
32-1BELLARBELLAR×3AceMaddie Carnesaced Raegan Durbin+0.8
43-1BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errSawyer Jones+0.9
53-2BELLARBUTLERServe errMaddie Carnes+0.6
64-2BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Payton Parsons+0.7
75-2BELLARBELLARAttack errChase Lemming+0.9
85-3BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+0.6
96-3BUTLERBELLAR×3Attack errChase Lemming+0.7
107-3BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errMaria Nix+1.0
118-3BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errChase Lemming+0.9
128-4BELLARBUTLERBlockedAbby Juliusblk Zoe McDonald, Maria Nix+0.5
139-4BUTLERBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+0.7
149-5BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+0.6
1510-5BUTLERBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+0.7
1610-6BELLARBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+0.6
1711-6BUTLERBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+0.7
1811-7BELLARBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Ava Hunter+0.6
1911-8BUTLERBUTLERAttack errMady Yaden+0.9
2012-8BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.8
2112-9BELLARBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.6
2213-9BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.8
2313-10BELLARBUTLER×4KillZoe McDonaldset Ava Hunter+0.6
2413-11BUTLERBUTLER×4Attack errMaddie Hagan+1.0
2513-12BUTLERBUTLER×4Bad setMaddie Carnes+1.1
2613-13BUTLERBUTLER×4Attack errMary Herman+1.2
2714-13BUTLERBELLARBlockedRaegan Durbinblk Mary Herman+0.9
2814-14BELLARBUTLER×4KillChase Lemmingset Jersey Loyer+0.9
2914-15BUTLERBUTLER×4AceButler+1.2
3014-16BUTLERBUTLER×4KillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+1.1
3114-17BUTLERBUTLER×4BlockedAbby Juliusblk Zoe McDonald+0.9
3215-17BUTLERBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Abby Julius+0.6
3316-17BELLARBELLARKillAbby Juliusset Zoe McDonald+1.1
3416-18BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+0.9
3517-18BUTLERBELLARBlockedRaegan Durbinblk Maddie Carnes, Erika Smith+0.8
3618-18BELLARBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.4
3718-19BELLARBUTLERBlockedErika Smithblk Ellery Rees, Raegan Durbin+1.1
3819-19BUTLERBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Natalie Bland+1.1
3920-19BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Jersey Loyer+1.9
4020-20BELLARBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Ava Hunter+1.3
4121-20BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.5
4221-21BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+1.4
4322-21BUTLERBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.7
4422-22BELLARBUTLERAttack errMaddie Hagan+1.6
4523-22BUTLERBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Payton Parsons+2.1
4623-23BELLARBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Kaylee Finnegan+1.9
4724-23BUTLERBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+2.6
4824-24BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+2.6
4924-25BUTLERBUTLERAceButleraced Abby Julius+3.2
5025-25BUTLERBELLAR×3Serve errButler+2.3
5126-25BELLARBELLAR×3BlockedRaegan Durbinblk Maddie Carnes, Erika Smith+3.5
5227-25BELLARBELLAR×3KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+4.0
Set 4
11-0BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.4
22-0BELLARBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.6
32-1BELLARBUTLER×5Serve errBellarmine+1.8
42-2BUTLERBUTLER×5KillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+2.4
52-3BUTLERBUTLER×5BlockedMady Yadenblk Sawyer Jones, Zoe McDonald+2.3
62-4BUTLERBUTLER×5BlockedMary Hermanblk Zoe McDonald+2.2
72-5BUTLERBUTLER×5KillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+2.0
83-5BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+1.4
93-6BELLARBUTLERServe errBellarmine+1.4
103-7BUTLERBUTLERAttack errAbby Julius+1.7
114-7BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+1.2
124-8BELLARBUTLER×3Serve errBellarmine+1.3
134-9BUTLERBUTLER×3KillMaria Nixset Ava Hunter+1.5
144-10BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errErika Smith+1.2
155-10BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+0.7
165-11BELLARBUTLERKillAva Hunterset Jersey Loyer+0.8
176-11BUTLERBELLAR×4KillMaddie Carnesset Marin Thaxton+0.7
187-11BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errMaria Nix+1.3
198-11BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errAva Hunter+1.7
209-11BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errMaria Nix+2.1
219-12BELLARBUTLERKillKaren Dutroset Ava Hunter+1.7
2210-12BUTLERBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.6
2310-13BELLARBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+1.7
2410-14BUTLERBUTLERAttack errMady Yaden+2.0
2511-14BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.3
2611-15BELLARBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.5
2712-15BUTLERBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.3
2813-15BELLARBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.3
2913-16BELLARBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.9
3014-16BUTLERBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.8
3114-17BELLARBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+2.0
3215-17BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+1.8
3315-18BELLARBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Ava Hunter+2.1
3416-18BUTLERBELLARServe errButler+1.8
3516-19BELLARBUTLER×3KillKaren Dutroset Ava Hunter+2.2
3616-20BUTLERBUTLER×3BlockedMady Yadenblk Karen Dutro, Sawyer Jones+2.3
3716-21BUTLERBUTLER×3KillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+1.5
3817-21BUTLERBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.6
3918-21BELLARBELLARAttack errKaren Dutro+1.5
4018-22BELLARBUTLER×4KillKaren Dutroset Marin Thaxton+1.6
4118-23BUTLERBUTLER×4KillSawyer Jonesset Jersey Loyer+1.2
4218-24BUTLERBUTLER×4KillKaren Dutroset Maddie Carnes+0.4
4318-25BUTLERBUTLER×4KillChase Lemmingset Kaylee Finnegan+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Bellarmine first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).