FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

0:3

HomeASUN

Bellarmine def. Butler 3–0

(25-18, 25-17, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUTLER	18	17	23	0
BELLAR	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BELLAR above 50 · BUTLER below

Biggest swing: 7.5% to Bellarmine — set 3, BUTLER 23-25 BELLAR. Butler service error. BELLAR win probability 93% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUTLER 65.9%34.1% BELLAR

Butler wins

3-0

20.6%

3-1

25.3%

3-2

20.0%

Bellarmine wins

3-0

6.9%

3-1

12.2%

3-2

15.0%

BUTLER break %: 43.9% vs this opp
BELLAR break %: 40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
BUTLER serverService error+7.5%
Butler service error
Set 3 · BUTLER 23-25 BELLAR · BELLAR 93% → 100%
02
Mady YadenKill+5.6%
Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Raegan Durbin)
Set 3 · BUTLER 20-22 BELLAR · BELLAR 86% → 92%
03
Mady YadenKill+5.5%
Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 3 · BUTLER 22-24 BELLAR · BELLAR 90% → 96%
04
BUTLER serverService error+4.7%
Butler service error
Set 3 · BUTLER 21-23 BELLAR · BELLAR 89% → 93%
05
Mady YadenKill+4.5%
Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 1 · BUTLER 17-19 BELLAR · BELLAR 39% → 43%
06
Erika SmithKill+4.4%
Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 1 · BUTLER 17-18 BELLAR · BELLAR 34% → 39%
07
Mady YadenKill+4.3%
Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 1 · BUTLER 18-21 BELLAR · BELLAR 44% → 48%
08
Maria NixKill+4.1%
Kill by Maria Nix (set by Ava Hunter)
Set 3 · BUTLER 18-18 BELLAR · BUTLER 14% → 18%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Butleraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Raegan DurbinOH	3	8	2	21	.286	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	8
11Sawyer JonesOH	3	6	2	16	.250	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	7
16Elise WardOH	3	6	4	21	.095	1	1	5	2	0	0	0	6
13Carly SlusserMB	3	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
17Zoe McDonaldMB	2	3	3	10	.000	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	4
9Kaylee FinneganS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
10Maria NixOH	3	5	4	20	.050	2	0	1	0	1	2	2	7
4Ava HunterS	3	1	0	1	1.000	13	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
5Jersey LoyerDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
6Aesha VogtDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Sarah KempfS	2	0	0	0	–	12	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
3Chase LemmingOH	1	3	0	6	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
14Karen DutroMB	1	1	1	3	.000	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	2
7Ellery ReesMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Marin ThaxtonDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	17	103	.184	36	8	36	4	2	8	6	58

Bellarminehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Mady YadenOH	3	18	3	32	.469	0	0	0	1	1	1	1.5	19.5
22Mya WhiteOH	3	9	2	22	.318	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9
3Erika SmithMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
20Mary HermanMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	1	2	1	2	2	6
2Natalie BlandOH	3	4	8	23	-.174	1	0	2	7	0	2	1	5
7Maddie CarnesS	3	2	1	5	.200	34	1	0	5	0	0	0	3
12Abbie LyttleDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
11Abby JuliusOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
24Ava LongDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	8	0	0	0	1
4Payton ParsonsL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	18	107	.252	39	4	3	41	2	6	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 BUTLER · BELLAR 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 5 BUTLERBELLAR 6

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 BUTLERBELLAR 8

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 BUTLERBELLAR 8

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = Butler leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Butler

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	30%3/10
2	50%6/12	20%2/10
3	43%6/14	54%7/13
4	67%6/9	40%4/10
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	42%5/12	14%1/7
All	51%37/73	35%21/60

Bellarmine

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	54%7/13
2	78%7/9	65%13/20
3	50%6/12	60%9/15
4	60%6/10	25%2/8
5	60%6/10	25%2/8
6	67%6/9	33%3/9
All	65%39/60	49%36/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	BUTLER-BELLAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BUTLER	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+1.7
2	0-2	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+2.4
3	0-3	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+2.5
4	1-3	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.6
5	1-4	BUTLER	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+1.9
6	1-5	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Payton Parsons	+2.4
7	1-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.3
8	2-6	BELLAR	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.4
9	3-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Bad set	Maddie Carnes		+2.2
10	4-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+2.4
11	4-7	BUTLER	BELLAR	Attack err	Maria Nix	blk Mary Herman, Natalie Bland	+2.0
12	4-8	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.6
13	5-8	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+1.6
14	5-9	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.9
15	6-9	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+1.6
16	6-10	BUTLER	BELLAR	Attack err	Raegan Durbin		+2.0
17	7-10	BELLAR	BUTLER	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+1.7
18	7-11	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Ava Long	+2.0
19	7-12	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden		+2.5
20	8-12	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Jersey Loyer	+1.4
21	8-13	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+1.8
22	9-13	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.4
23	10-13	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Payton Parsons		+2.4
24	10-14	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+2.2
25	11-14	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.7
26	11-15	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.2
27	12-15	BELLAR	BUTLER×5	Serve err	BELLAR server		+1.7
28	13-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Mya White		+2.9
29	14-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+3.3
30	15-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Jersey Loyer	+3.6
31	16-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+3.7
32	16-16	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+2.7
33	17-16	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+2.8
34	17-17	BUTLER	BELLAR×3	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+2.9
35	17-18	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+4.4
36	17-19	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+4.5
37	18-19	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+2.8
38	18-20	BUTLER	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+3.6
39	18-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+4.3
40	18-22	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden		+3.3
41	18-23	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+1.9
42	18-24	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Natalie Bland	+0.8
43	18-25	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Raegan Durbin	+0.2
Set 2
1	1-0	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Sarah Kempf	+2.0
2	2-0	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Sarah Kempf	+2.6
3	2-1	BUTLER	BELLAR×4	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.9
4	2-2	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+2.8
5	2-3	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Elise Ward	+3.0
6	2-4	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+3.1
7	3-4	BELLAR	BUTLER	Attack err	Mary Herman		+2.1
8	4-4	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Zoe McDonald, Maria Nix	+3.0
9	4-5	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.3
10	5-5	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+2.2
11	5-6	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.4
12	6-6	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+2.3
13	6-7	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.4
14	7-7	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Maria Nix	+2.3
15	7-8	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.5
16	8-8	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Sarah Kempf	+2.4
17	8-9	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Ava Long	+2.6
18	9-9	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Sarah Kempf	+2.5
19	9-10	BUTLER	BELLAR	Attack err	Elise Ward	blk Mary Herman, Mady Yaden	+2.7
20	10-10	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Sarah Kempf	+2.6
21	10-11	BUTLER	BELLAR×8	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.8
22	10-12	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Elise Ward		+3.9
23	10-13	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Maria Nix		+3.8
24	10-14	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Kill	Mya White	set Abbie Lyttle	+3.5
25	10-15	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Maria Nix		+3.0
26	10-16	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Zoe McDonald	blk Natalie Bland, Erika Smith	+2.5
27	10-17	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maria Nix	+1.8
28	10-18	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+1.2
29	11-18	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Ava Hunter	set Elise Ward	+0.5
30	11-19	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.8
31	11-20	BELLAR	BELLAR	Attack err	Raegan Durbin		+0.6
32	12-20	BELLAR	BUTLER	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Maria Nix, Zoe McDonald	+0.2
33	12-21	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.4
34	13-21	BELLAR	BUTLER	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.1
35	13-22	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
36	14-22	BELLAR	BUTLER×3	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+0.1
37	15-22	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Sarah Kempf	+0.2
38	16-22	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+0.4
39	16-23	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.6
40	17-23	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Sarah Kempf	+0.2
41	17-24	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+0.4
42	17-25	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Sarah Kempf	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Mary Herman	blk Carly Slusser	+2.2
2	1-1	BUTLER	BELLAR×8	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+1.6
3	1-2	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Carly Slusser	blk Mady Yaden	+2.3
4	1-3	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Bad set	Carly Slusser		+2.4
5	1-4	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Elise Ward	blk Mary Herman	+2.4
6	1-5	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Maria Nix		+2.4
7	1-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Attack err	Elise Ward		+2.2
8	1-7	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Elise Ward	+2.0
9	1-8	BELLAR	BELLAR×8	Kill	Mya White	set Ellery Rees	+1.7
10	2-8	BELLAR	BUTLER	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+1.0
11	2-9	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.3
12	3-9	BELLAR	BUTLER×4	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	+1.0
13	4-9	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Jersey Loyer	+1.6
14	5-9	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Attack err	Mya White		+1.9
15	6-9	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Maria Nix	+2.2
16	6-10	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+1.9
17	7-10	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+1.6
18	7-11	BUTLER	BELLAR×3	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+2.0
19	7-12	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Karen Dutro		+2.4
20	7-13	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Team	+2.0
21	8-13	BELLAR	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+1.1
22	9-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Sarah Kempf	+1.9
23	10-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Sawyer Jones, Karen Dutro	+2.3
24	11-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Karen Dutro, Sawyer Jones	+2.7
25	12-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Maddie Carnes		+3.0
26	12-14	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.5
27	13-14	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Sarah Kempf	+2.2
28	14-14	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Erika Smith		+3.3
29	14-15	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+2.6
30	14-16	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+3.7
31	15-16	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Jersey Loyer	+2.4
32	15-17	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+2.9
33	16-17	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+2.5
34	16-18	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+3.0
35	17-18	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	+2.6
36	18-18	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+4.1
37	18-19	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+3.4
38	19-19	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Maria Nix	+3.2
39	19-20	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+3.7
40	20-20	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+3.5
41	20-21	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+4.1
42	20-22	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Raegan Durbin	+5.6
43	21-22	BELLAR	BUTLER	Serve err	BELLAR server		+3.2
44	21-23	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+4.7
45	22-23	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+3.3
46	22-24	BUTLER	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+5.5
47	23-24	BELLAR	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+3.1
48	23-25	BUTLER	BELLAR	Serve err	BUTLER server		+7.5

Score shown after each rally, Butler first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.