FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on FloSports

UNCW def. Elon 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: UNCW 54.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UNCW beat visiting Elon 3-0 (25-16, 25-23, 29-27) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Sam Vanda and Elaina Murphy led UNCW with 9 kills each; Elon's Cameron Lanier had a match-high 12.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set123Sets
ELON1623270
UNCW2525293

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UNCW held Elon to .105 hitting.

Win probability never moved more than 6.9 points on one rally; Elon topped out at 44% in Set 2. Pre-match, RallyIQ had UNCW at 55%.

ElonUNCW
  • Break %+10.4 pts
    35.846.2

    Points won on own serve: 36 of 78 vs 24 of 67. Elon sided out 53.8% of the time.

  • Hitting+.255
    .105.360

    41 kills, 10 errors vs 32 kills, 23 errors.

  • Longest run+-1
    65

    Up 19–15 in the first set, UNCW scored 5 straight to make it 24–15. That set ended 25–16.

UNCW above 50Elon belowMax swing 6.9%

ElonUNCW

Aces
Elon 7·UNCW 7
Serve err
Elon 6·UNCW 16
Blocks
Elon 4·UNCW 91 BS · 6 BA vs 1 BS · 16 BA
Digs
Elon 25·UNCW 28

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UNCW above 50 · Elon below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+6.9% UNCWrally 145 · set 3

Biggest swing: 6.9% to UNCW — set 2, ELON 23-25 UNCW. Attack error by Courtney Graham. UNCW win probability 82% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ELON 39.2%60.8% UNCW

Elon wins

3-0
8.5%
3-1
14.3%
3-2
16.5%

UNCW wins

3-0
17.6%
3-1
23.2%
3-2
19.9%
ELON break %
41.3% vs this opp
UNCW break %
43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Courtney GrahamAttack error+6.9%

    Attack error by Courtney Graham

    Set 2 · ELON 23-25 UNCW · UNCW 82% → 89%

  2. 02

    Kill by Nadia Wasilewski (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 3 · ELON 23-24 UNCW · UNCW 88% → 94%

  3. 03

    Cameron Lanier stuffed by Gaby Zovko & Courtney Graham

    Set 3 · ELON 27-29 UNCW · UNCW 94% → 100%

  4. 04

    Caroline Berlekamp stuffed by Elaina Murphy & Courtney Graham

    Set 2 · ELON 20-21 UNCW · UNCW 71% → 77%

  5. 05
    Anna SewellAttack error+5.3%

    Attack error by Anna Sewell

    Set 2 · ELON 20-22 UNCW · UNCW 77% → 82%

  6. 06
    Elaina MurphyKill+5.2%

    Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 2 · ELON 22-24 UNCW · UNCW 80% → 85%

  7. 07
    UNCWAce+5.0%

    UNCW ace

    Set 2 · ELON 20-20 UNCW · UNCW 66% → 71%

  8. 08

    Kill by Cameron Lanier (set by Kayla Palmer)

    Set 3 · ELON 24-24 UNCW · ELON 6% → 10%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Elonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312627.2221217110115
39314.42904260010.513.5
34110.30000000010.54.5
3329.111000000214
33031.000140010010.53.5
3000–010220001
3000–101610000
3000–1302200000
21918-.44400001010.51.5
2025-.400000000000
2000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals322386.105297625716466
UNCWhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39324.2502242302112
35313.15414300052.511.5
37012.58301310132.510.5
39317.35310141010.59.5
38012.6672802600219
3317.28600020031.54.5
3001.000000300000
3000–103610000
2000–000420000
Team totals411086.36033716287116979

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Elon vs UNCW

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 ELON · UNCW 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 ELONUNCW 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 ELONUNCW 5

Set 3

27-29

Longest run 6 ELONUNCW 4

Bars above the line = UNCW leads, below = Elon leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Elon

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
50%7/14
2
35%7/20
20%2/10
3
88%7/8
13%1/8
4
78%7/9
42%5/12
5
47%7/15
36%4/11
6
46%6/13
42%5/12
All
54%42/78
36%24/67

UNCW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
56%9/16
2
100%8/8
50%8/16
3
64%7/11
46%6/13
4
54%7/13
13%1/8
5
58%7/12
53%8/15
6
100%6/6
40%4/10
All
64%43/67
46%36/78

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

145 rallies

#ELON-UNCWSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UNCWUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Gaby Zovko+2.4
20-2UNCWUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.4
31-2UNCWELONAttack errCourtney Graham+1.8
41-3ELONUNCW×4Serve errElon+1.8
51-4UNCWUNCW×4Attack errAllie Schultz+2.4
61-5UNCWUNCW×4Attack errCameron Lanier+2.2
71-6UNCWUNCW×4KillGaby Zovkoset Courtney Graham+1.9
82-6UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset April Rice+1.3
92-7ELONUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.5
103-7UNCWELONKillCatherine Ruckerset Kayla Palmer+1.3
114-7ELONELONKillCatherine Rucker+2.0
124-8ELONUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Annie Harney+1.7
135-8UNCWELON×3KillAnna Sewellset Kayla Palmer+1.5
146-8ELONELON×3Attack errLauren Lewis+2.4
157-8ELONELON×3KillCaroline Berlekamp+2.7
167-9ELONUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Sam Vanda+2.1
177-10UNCWUNCW×3Attack errAnna Sewell+2.7
187-11UNCWUNCW×3KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+2.4
198-11UNCWELONServe errUNCW+1.6
208-12ELONUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.8
218-13UNCWUNCWBlockedAnna Sewellblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+2.1
229-13UNCWELONServe errUNCW+1.3
239-14ELONUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Gaby Zovko+1.6
249-15UNCWUNCWAttack errCameron Lanier+1.7
2510-15UNCWELONBlockedSam Vandablk April Rice, Caroline Berlekamp+0.9
2610-16ELONUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.2
2711-16UNCWELONServe errUNCW+0.9
2811-17ELONUNCWServe errElon+1.2
2912-17UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset Kayla Palmer+0.8
3013-17ELONELONAttack errSam Vanda+1.6
3113-18ELONUNCWAttack errAnna Sewell+1.6
3213-19UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Anna Sewell+1.5
3314-19UNCWELONServe errUNCW+0.7
3415-19ELONELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+1.4
3515-20ELONUNCW×5Attack errAnna Sewell+1.5
3615-21UNCWUNCW×5BlockedCaroline Berlekampblk Nadia Wasilewski+1.3
3715-22UNCWUNCW×5Attack errAllie Schultz+0.7
3815-23UNCWUNCW×5Attack errAnna Sewell+0.3
3915-24UNCWUNCW×5BlockedAnna Sewellblk Courtney Graham, Nadia Wasilewski+0.1
4016-24UNCWELONBlockedSam Vandablk Caroline Berlekamp, Anna Sewell·
4116-25ELONUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko·
Set 2
11-0ELONELON×4BlockedCourtney Grahamblk Cameron Lanier+2.4
22-0ELONELON×4KillCameron Lanierset April Rice+2.4
33-0ELONELON×4KillCameron Lanierset April Rice+2.3
44-0ELONELON×4Attack errElaina Murphy+2.2
54-1ELONUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.5
65-1UNCWELONKillCaroline Berlekampset April Rice+1.7
75-2ELONUNCW×3KillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.5
85-3UNCWUNCW×3AceUNCWaced Lindsey Murphy+2.3
95-4UNCWUNCW×3AceUNCWaced Cameron Lanier+2.4
106-4UNCWELONServe errUNCW+2.0
117-4ELONELONServe errElon+2.5
127-5ELONUNCWServe errElon+1.7
138-5UNCWELON×3Serve errUNCW+1.9
149-5ELONELON×3AceElonaced Sam Vanda+2.4
1510-5ELONELON×3KillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+2.2
1610-6ELONUNCWServe errElon+1.3
1711-6UNCWELONBlockedElaina Murphyblk Catherine Rucker, Allie Schultz+1.6
1811-7ELONUNCWBlockedAnna Sewellblk Nadia Wasilewski, Lauren Lewis+1.3
1912-7UNCWELONServe errUNCW+1.7
2012-8ELONUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.3
2113-8UNCWELON×3Serve errUNCW+1.7
2214-8ELONELON×3KillCameron Lanierset April Rice+1.8
2315-8ELONELON×3AceElonaced Sam Vanda+1.4
2415-9ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.7
2516-9UNCWELONKillCaroline Berlekampset April Rice+1.0
2616-10ELONUNCW×4Attack errCameron Lanier+0.7
2716-11UNCWUNCW×4KillLauren Lewisset Lindsey Murphy+1.3
2816-12UNCWUNCW×4Bad setAllie Schultz+1.7
2916-13UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCWaced Lindsey Murphy+2.2
3017-13UNCWELONKillCatherine Ruckerset April Rice+2.1
3117-14ELONUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.7
3218-14UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset Kayla Palmer+2.2
3318-15ELONUNCWAttack errAnna Sewell+1.6
3418-16UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Casey Brower+2.9
3519-16UNCWELONServe errUNCW+2.8
3619-17ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.2
3719-18UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.8
3820-18UNCWELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+3.5
3920-19ELONUNCW×5Serve errElon+3.0
4020-20UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCW+5.0
4120-21UNCWUNCW×5BlockedCaroline Berlekampblk Elaina Murphy, Courtney Graham+5.5
4220-22UNCWUNCW×5Attack errAnna Sewell+5.3
4320-23UNCWUNCW×5KillGaby Zovkoset Casey Brower+4.2
4421-23UNCWELONServe errUNCW+1.8
4522-23ELONELONAttack errCourtney Graham+4.3
4622-24ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+5.2
4723-24UNCWELONServe errUNCW+3.0
4823-25ELONUNCWAttack errCourtney Graham+6.9
Set 3
10-1UNCWUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.5
21-1UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset April Rice+1.1
31-2ELONUNCW×4KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.1
41-3UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCW+1.5
51-4UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vanda+1.4
61-5UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.3
72-5UNCWELONKillCatherine Ruckerset April Rice+0.9
82-6ELONUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.0
93-6UNCWELONServe errUNCW+0.9
104-6ELONELONAceElonaced Elaina Murphy+1.4
114-7ELONUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.1
125-7UNCWELONServe errUNCW+1.0
135-8ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.1
145-9UNCWUNCWAttack errCaroline Smith+1.4
156-9UNCWELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+0.9
166-10ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.1
177-10UNCWELONKillApril Riceset April Rice+0.9
187-11ELONUNCWAttack errCameron Lanier+1.1
198-11UNCWELONKillAllie Schultzset April Rice+1.0
209-11ELONELONKillApril Riceset Cameron Lanier+1.5
219-12ELONUNCW×3BlockedCatherine Ruckerblk Courtney Graham, Sam Vanda+1.3
229-13UNCWUNCW×3BlockedCameron Lanierblk Sam Vanda, Lauren Lewis+1.5
239-14UNCWUNCW×3KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.3
2410-14UNCWELONServe errUNCW+0.8
2510-15ELONUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Lindsey Murphy+1.0
2611-15UNCWELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+0.7
2711-16ELONUNCWAttack errAllie Schultz+1.0
2812-16UNCWELONServe errUNCW+0.7
2913-16ELONELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+1.3
3013-17ELONUNCWBlockedCaroline Smithblk Nadia Wasilewski, Lauren Lewis+1.2
3114-17UNCWELON×6Serve errUNCW+1.0
3215-17ELONELON×6AceElonaced Morgan Esmie+1.7
3316-17ELONELON×6AceElonaced Annie Harney+2.1
3417-17ELONELON×6Attack errElaina Murphy+2.5
3518-17ELONELON×6AceElonaced Morgan Esmie+2.7
3619-17ELONELON×6AceElonaced Sam Vanda+2.7
3719-18ELONUNCW×3KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.8
3819-19UNCWUNCW×3KillGaby Zovko+2.9
3919-20UNCWUNCW×3KillGaby Zovko+3.1
4020-20UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset April Rice+2.3
4120-21ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.6
4221-21UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset April Rice+2.5
4322-21ELONELONKillApril Riceset Casey Brower+4.0
4422-22ELONUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Sam Vanda+2.9
4523-22UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset April Rice+3.6
4623-23ELONUNCWKillSam Vandaset Elaina Murphy+3.4
4723-24UNCWUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+5.9
4824-24UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset Kayla Palmer+4.4
4924-25ELONUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+4.4
5025-25UNCWELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+4.4
5125-26ELONUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+4.4
5226-26UNCWELONKillAllie Schultzset Kayla Palmer+4.4
5326-27ELONUNCWServe errElon+4.4
5427-27UNCWELONKillCameron Lanierset April Rice+4.4
5527-28ELONUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+4.4
5627-29UNCWUNCWBlockedCameron Lanierblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+5.8

Score shown after each rally, Elon first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).