Final · 4 setsTue, Oct 20, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Gardner-Webb def. N.C. Central 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Gardner-Webb 89.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 20, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Gardner-Webb beat visiting N.C. Central 3-1 (25-18, 25-18, 22-25, 25-13) on Tue, Oct 20, 2026. Gardner-Webb's Sarina Galyean led with 16 kills, and Kiera Vazquez added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 20

Set1234Sets
NC CEN181825131
G WEBB252522253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

N.C. Central hit .113. Gardner-Webb held them there all match.

Win probability never moved more than 1.9 points on one rally; N.C. Central topped out at 12% in Set 1. Gardner-Webb went in as RallyIQ's 89% pick.

N.C. CentralGardner-Webb
  • Break %+14.8 pts
    37.352.1

    50 of 96 on serve vs 28 of 75, so N.C. Central's sideout was 47.9%.

  • Hitting+.151
    .113.264

    54 kills, 17 errors vs 36 kills, 21 errors.

  • Longest run+5
    49

    Up 7–6 in the fourth set, Gardner-Webb scored 9 straight to make it 16–6. The set finished 25–13.

Gardner-Webb above 50N.C. Central belowMax swing 1.9%

N.C. CentralGardner-Webb

Aces
N.C. Central 10·Gardner-Webb 8
Serve err
N.C. Central 11·Gardner-Webb 10
Blocks
N.C. Central 7·Gardner-Webb 93 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 14 BA
Digs
N.C. Central 60·Gardner-Webb 74

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Gardner-Webb above 50 · N.C. Central below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.9% NC CENrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.9% to N.C. Central — set 4, NC CEN 4-2 G WEBB. Ace by Hailey Gibbons. G WEBB win probability 91% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NC CEN 13.6%86.4% G WEBB

N.C. Central wins

3-0
2.0%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
7.3%

Gardner-Webb wins

3-0
38.9%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
16.0%
NC CEN break %
39.9% vs this opp
G WEBB break %
48.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Hailey Gibbons

    Set 4 · NC CEN 4-2 G WEBB · NC CEN 9% → 11%

  2. 02
    Aniah BassKill+1.7%

    Kill by Aniah Bass (set by Hailey Gibbons)

    Set 4 · NC CEN 3-2 G WEBB · NC CEN 7% → 9%

  3. 03
    Kayla RileyKill+1.7%

    Kill by Kayla Riley (set by Breylan Fairley)

    Set 3 · NC CEN 24-22 G WEBB · NC CEN 4% → 6%

  4. 04

    Kill by Sarina Galyean (set by Aleina Manaois)

    Set 4 · NC CEN 4-4 G WEBB · G WEBB 90% → 92%

  5. 05

    Ace by Tabitha Newlin on Ella Moss

    Set 2 · NC CEN 16-14 G WEBB · NC CEN 8% → 10%

  6. 06

    Ace by Aleina Manaois

    Set 4 · NC CEN 4-5 G WEBB · G WEBB 92% → 94%

  7. 07

    Kayla Riley stuffed by Alexis Maesch & Milla Lugo

    Set 2 · NC CEN 16-16 G WEBB · G WEBB 92% → 93%

  8. 08

    Ace by Tabitha Newlin

    Set 2 · NC CEN 15-14 G WEBB · NC CEN 6% → 8%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411227.333030111010.514.5
411744.09101182010.512.5
47938-.05313370010.510.5
4418.375100201226
4000–1921600002
2103.33300330111.52.5
4105.2005122120002
4002.00090010010.50.5
2126-.16700110111.52.5
Team totals3621133.11335101160838774
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416534.3240001100016
43316.00012250010.55.5
4001.00019231000002
310127.33302111002113
35013.385000400638
2215.20010020010.52.5
4001.0006021510000
4000–000100000
12Ella MossL/DS
3000–301610000
28114.500000001019
2318.25000000031.54.5
2406.66700000010.54.5
2001.000910600001
2001.000900500000
1227.000010320003
1034-.750000201011
1102.500000000001
1000–001000000
1000–000320000
1000–000000000
Team totals5417140.264488107410214997

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

N.C. Central vs Gardner-Webb

Season series · Gardner-Webb leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NC CEN · G WEBB 9

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 NC CENG WEBB 3

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 NC CENG WEBB 5

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 NC CENG WEBB 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 3 NC CENG WEBB 9

Bars above the line = Gardner-Webb leads, below = N.C. Central leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

N.C. Central

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
38%5/13
2
69%9/13
40%6/15
3
54%7/13
40%6/15
4
44%7/16
30%3/10
5
37%7/19
36%4/11
6
38%6/16
36%4/11
All
48%46/96
37%28/75

Gardner-Webb

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
64%14/22
2
69%9/13
40%6/15
3
67%8/12
38%5/13
4
50%7/14
42%5/12
5
78%7/9
56%9/16
6
54%7/13
61%11/18
All
63%47/75
52%50/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#NC CEN-G WEBBSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1G WEBBG WEBBKillMilla Lugoset Olivia Lefebvre+1.0
21-1G WEBBNC CENAttack errCaroline Franklin+0.9
32-1NC CENNC CENKillTabitha Newlinset Breylan Fairley+1.2
42-2NC CENG WEBB×3KillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.9
52-3G WEBBG WEBB×3Bad setAniah Bass+1.1
62-4G WEBBG WEBB×3Attack errTabitha Newlin+1.0
73-4G WEBBNC CENKillTabitha Newlinset Hailey Gibbons+0.8
83-5NC CENG WEBB×3BlockedTabitha Newlinblk Caroline Franklin, Samia Sayd+0.8
93-6G WEBBG WEBB×3KillCaroline Franklinset Aleina Manaois+0.9
103-7G WEBBG WEBB×3KillSamia Saydset Aleina Manaois+0.7
114-7G WEBBNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+0.6
124-8NC CENG WEBBKillCaroline Franklinset Aleina Manaois+0.6
134-9G WEBBG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Aleina Manaois+0.6
145-9G WEBBNC CENServe errCaroline Franklin+0.4
155-10NC CENG WEBB×3KillMilla Lugoset Aleina Manaois+0.5
165-11G WEBBG WEBB×3KillParker LaFontaineset Olivia Lefebvre+0.5
175-12G WEBBG WEBB×3KillPeyton Sloneset Olivia Lefebvre+0.3
186-12G WEBBNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.2
196-13NC CENG WEBBAttack errMilla Lugo+0.3
206-14G WEBBG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Kiera Vazquez+0.2
217-14G WEBBNC CEN×3Attack errSarina Galyean+0.1
228-14NC CENNC CEN×3AceBreylan Fairleyaced Kiera Vazquez+0.3
239-14NC CENNC CEN×3AceBreylan Fairleyaced Sarina Galyean+0.4
249-15NC CENG WEBBServe errBreylan Fairley+0.4
2510-15G WEBBNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+0.3
2610-16NC CENG WEBBKillParker LaFontaineset Olivia Lefebvre+0.4
2710-17G WEBBG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Aleina Manaois+0.3
2811-17G WEBBNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.2
2911-18NC CENG WEBBServe errAllyson Rouse+0.2
3012-18G WEBBNC CENKillTabitha Newlinset Peyton Jenkins+0.2
3112-19NC CENG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Aleina Manaois+0.2
3213-19G WEBBNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Lusiana Damuni+0.1
3313-20NC CENG WEBBServe errTabitha Newlin+0.2
3414-20G WEBBNC CENAttack errParker LaFontaine+0.1
3514-21NC CENG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Olivia Lefebvre+0.2
3615-21G WEBBNC CENServe errPeyton Slone+0.1
3716-21NC CENNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.2
3816-22NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.3
3916-23G WEBBG WEBBKillSarina Galyean+0.1
4017-23G WEBBNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley·
4117-24NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.1
4218-24G WEBBNC CENKillTabitha Newlinset Breylan Fairley·
4318-25NC CENG WEBBServe errAllyson Rouse·
Set 2
11-0NC CENNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Breylan Fairley+0.8
21-1NC CENG WEBB×3KillAubrey Jordanset Kiera Vazquez+0.6
31-2G WEBBG WEBB×3Attack errTabitha Newlin+0.7
41-3G WEBBG WEBB×3Attack errTabitha Newlin+0.7
52-3G WEBBNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+0.5
63-3NC CENNC CEN×3BlockedSarina Galyeanblk Allyson Rouse+0.8
74-3NC CENNC CEN×3KillAniah Bass+0.9
84-4NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.7
95-4G WEBBNC CENKillAllyson Rouseset Breylan Fairley+0.8
106-4NC CENNC CENAttack errCaroline Franklin+1.1
116-5NC CENG WEBBAttack errTabitha Newlin+0.7
127-5G WEBBNC CENKillAniah Bassset Lusiana Damuni+0.9
137-6NC CENG WEBB×3KillPeyton Sloneset Ivey Lucas+0.8
147-7G WEBBG WEBB×3KillAlexis Maeschset Ivey Lucas+1.0
157-8G WEBBG WEBB×3KillPeyton Sloneset Caroline Franklin+0.9
168-8G WEBBNC CENBlockedPeyton Sloneblk Allyson Rouse, Lusiana Damuni+0.8
178-9NC CENG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Ella Moss+0.7
189-9G WEBBNC CENServe errOlivia Lefebvre+0.8
199-10NC CENG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Olivia Lefebvre+0.7
2010-10G WEBBNC CENKillAniah Bassset Hailey Gibbons+0.8
2110-11NC CENG WEBBKillMilla Lugoset Olivia Lefebvre+0.8
2210-12G WEBBG WEBBKillAubrey Jordanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.9
2311-12G WEBBNC CENServe errKiera Vazquez+0.7
2411-13NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.7
2512-13G WEBBNC CENAttack errSarina Galyean+0.8
2612-14NC CENG WEBBAttack errTabitha Newlin+0.8
2713-14G WEBBNC CEN×4KillTabitha Newlinset Lusiana Damuni+0.8
2814-14NC CENNC CEN×4KillKayla Rileyset Hailey Gibbons+1.2
2915-14NC CENNC CEN×4AceTabitha Newlin+1.5
3016-14NC CENNC CEN×4AceTabitha Newlinaced Ella Moss+1.6
3116-15NC CENG WEBB×4Attack errKayla Riley+1.1
3216-16G WEBBG WEBB×4BlockedKayla Rileyblk Alexis Maesch, Milla Lugo+1.5
3316-17G WEBBG WEBB×4KillAlexis Maeschset Ivey Lucas+1.4
3416-18G WEBBG WEBB×4KillAlexis Maesch+1.2
3517-18G WEBBNC CENKillTabitha Newlinset Lusiana Damuni+1.0
3617-19NC CENG WEBBServe errAllyson Rouse+1.0
3717-20G WEBBG WEBBAttack errKayla Riley+1.1
3818-20G WEBBNC CENServe errOlivia Lefebvre+0.7
3918-21NC CENG WEBB×5KillAubrey Jordanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.9
4018-22G WEBBG WEBB×5AcePeyton Sloneaced Kayla Riley+0.7
4118-23G WEBBG WEBB×5KillMilla Lugoset Olivia Lefebvre+0.4
4218-24G WEBBG WEBB×5AcePeyton Sloneaced Kayla Riley+0.1
4318-25G WEBBG WEBB×5BlockedAniah Bassblk Aubrey Jordan·
Set 3
11-0G WEBBNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.3
22-0NC CENNC CENBlockedSarina Galyeanblk Aniah Bass, Peyton Jenkins+0.4
32-1NC CENG WEBBKillAubrey Jordanset Kiera Vazquez+0.3
43-1G WEBBNC CEN×3Serve errKiera Vazquez+0.4
54-1NC CENNC CEN×3BlockedAubrey Jordanblk Peyton Jenkins+0.5
65-1NC CENNC CEN×3AceKayla Riley+0.5
75-2NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.3
85-3G WEBBG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Kiera Vazquez+0.4
96-3G WEBBNC CENKillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.4
106-4NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Ivey Lucas+0.4
116-5G WEBBG WEBBAttack errMorgan Wingo+0.5
127-5G WEBBNC CEN×3KillAniah Bassset Tabitha Newlin+0.4
138-5NC CENNC CEN×3AceAniah Bassaced Isabel Sandstrum+0.6
149-5NC CENNC CEN×3KillTabitha Newlinset Lusiana Damuni+0.6
159-6NC CENG WEBBKillCaroline Franklinset Ivey Lucas+0.4
1610-6G WEBBNC CENAttack errNicole Osborne+0.5
1710-7NC CENG WEBBServe errTabitha Newlin+0.4
1810-8G WEBBG WEBBKillAubrey Jordanset Kiera Vazquez+0.5
1911-8G WEBBNC CENAttack errTatiana Besu+0.5
2011-9NC CENG WEBB×3BlockedTabitha Newlinblk Tatiana Besu+0.4
2111-10G WEBBG WEBB×3KillSarina Galyean+0.5
2211-11G WEBBG WEBB×3AceNicole Osborneaced Hailey Gibbons+0.5
2312-11G WEBBNC CENKillPeyton Jenkinsset Lusiana Damuni+0.5
2412-12NC CENG WEBBKillAubrey Jordanset Olivia Lefebvre+0.4
2513-12G WEBBNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+0.5
2613-13NC CENG WEBBServe errKayla Riley+0.4
2713-14G WEBBG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Ivey Lucas+0.5
2814-14G WEBBNC CENAttack errSarina Galyean+0.5
2914-15NC CENG WEBBServe errHailey Gibbons+0.4
3014-16G WEBBG WEBBKillAlexis Maeschset Ivey Lucas+0.5
3115-16G WEBBNC CEN×3KillAniah Bassset Breylan Fairley+0.4
3216-16NC CENNC CEN×3AceAniah Bassaced Isabel Sandstrum+0.6
3317-16NC CENNC CEN×3AceAniah Bassaced Nicole Osborne+0.8
3417-17NC CENG WEBBKillNicole Osborneset Ivey Lucas+0.6
3517-18G WEBBG WEBBAceCaroline Franklin+0.7
3618-18G WEBBNC CEN×3BlockedNicole Osborneblk Morgan Wingo+0.6
3719-18NC CENNC CEN×3BlockedTatiana Besublk Morgan Wingo, Kayla Riley+0.9
3820-18NC CENNC CEN×3AceTabitha Newlinaced Nicole Osborne+1.0
3920-19NC CENG WEBBKillNicole Osborneset Ivey Lucas+0.6
4021-19G WEBBNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.9
4122-19NC CENNC CENAttack errTatiana Besu+1.1
4222-20NC CENG WEBB×3Serve errMorgan Wingo+0.5
4322-21G WEBBG WEBB×3KillAubrey Jordanset Olivia Lefebvre+1.0
4422-22G WEBBG WEBB×3KillAubrey Jordanset Olivia Lefebvre+1.2
4523-22G WEBBNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Hailey Gibbons+1.2
4624-22NC CENNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+1.7
4725-22NC CENNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+1.2
Set 4
10-1NC CENG WEBBKillSarina Galyeanset Kiera Vazquez+1.1
21-1G WEBBNC CENKillKayla Rileyset Breylan Fairley+1.2
31-2NC CENG WEBBBlockedTabitha Newlinblk Parker LaFontaine, Milla Lugo+1.1
42-2G WEBBNC CEN×3BlockedCaroline Franklinblk Peyton Jenkins, Tabitha Newlin+1.2
53-2NC CENNC CEN×3KillAniah Bassset Hailey Gibbons+1.7
64-2NC CENNC CEN×3AceHailey Gibbons+1.9
74-3NC CENG WEBB×3KillSarina Galyeanset Olivia Lefebvre+1.4
84-4G WEBBG WEBB×3KillSarina Galyeanset Aleina Manaois+1.7
94-5G WEBBG WEBB×3AceAleina Manaois+1.6
105-5G WEBBNC CENKillMorgan Wingoset Breylan Fairley+1.3
115-6NC CENG WEBBAttack errAniah Bass+1.2
125-7G WEBBG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Ella Moss+1.5
136-7G WEBBNC CENServe errElla Moss+1.2
146-8NC CENG WEBB×9Serve errTabitha Newlin+1.1
156-9G WEBBG WEBB×9KillSamia Saydset Ella Moss+1.3
166-10G WEBBG WEBB×9Bad setHailey Gibbons+1.1
176-11G WEBBG WEBB×9BlockedMorgan Wingoblk Milla Lugo, Peyton Slone+0.8
186-12G WEBBG WEBB×9KillSamia Sayd+0.6
196-13G WEBBG WEBB×9BlockedKayla Rileyblk Samia Sayd, Milla Lugo+0.5
206-14G WEBBG WEBB×9BlockedKayla Rileyblk Milla Lugo, Samia Sayd+0.3
216-15G WEBBG WEBB×9AceCaroline Franklinaced Hailey Gibbons+0.2
226-16G WEBBG WEBB×9Attack errKayla Riley+0.1
237-16G WEBBNC CEN×3Serve errCaroline Franklin+0.1
248-16NC CENNC CEN×3KillKayla Rileyset Lusiana Damuni+0.1
259-16NC CENNC CEN×3Attack errSamia Sayd+0.2
269-17NC CENG WEBB×5KillMilla Lugoset Aleina Manaois+0.2
279-18G WEBBG WEBB×5BlockedPeyton Jenkinsblk Peyton Slone, Milla Lugo+0.1
289-19G WEBBG WEBB×5AceOlivia Lefebvreaced Aniah Bass+0.1
299-20G WEBBG WEBB×5Attack errKayla Riley·
309-21G WEBBG WEBB×5AceOlivia Lefebvre·
3110-21G WEBBNC CENServe errOlivia Lefebvre·
3210-22NC CENG WEBBKillPeyton Sloneset Olivia Lefebvre·
3311-22G WEBBNC CENServe errAnnabelle Sims·
3411-23NC CENG WEBBAttack errTabitha Newlin·
3511-24G WEBBG WEBBKillEmma Kerwinset Parker LaFontaine·
3612-24G WEBBNC CENKillHailey Gibbonsset Breylan Fairley·
3713-24NC CENNC CENBad setMartha Turnure·
3813-25NC CENG WEBBServe errHailey Gibbons·

Score shown after each rally, N.C. Central first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).