Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UCF def. Houston 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: UCF 50.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UCF won at Houston 3-2 (25-19, 25-16, 21-25, 22-25, 16-14) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Avah Armour led UCF with 17 kills; Houston's Sydney Jones had a match-high 27.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set12345Sets
UCF25252122163
HOU19162525142

Match story · written from the play-by-play

14 blocks, led by Ella Chapman: UCF won it at the net.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are UCF's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had UCF at 50%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · UCF 5–2 Houston

    3 straight Houston points erased a 2–5 deficit: 5–5.

    UCF 76% → 52%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · UCF 9–8 Houston

    Down 8–9, Houston scored 3 straight to lead 11–9. The match swung to Houston.

    UCF 61% → 24%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · UCF 13–13 Houston

    UCF closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 16–14 and win the match 3–2.

    UCF 54% → >99%

Houston above 50UCF belowMax swing 26.8%

UCFHouston

Sideout %
UCF 66.0·Houston 60.2
Break %
UCF 39.8·Houston 34.0
Hitting
UCF .302·Houston .221
Longest run
UCF 7·Houston 5
Blocks
UCF 14·Houston 43 BS · 22 BA vs 0 BS · 8 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Houston above 50 · UCF below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+26.8% UCFrally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 26.8% to UCF — set 5, UCF 16-14 HOU. Attack error by Noemi Despaigne. HOU win probability 27% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCF 54.9%45.1% HOU

UCF wins

3-0
14.6%
3-1
20.8%
3-2
19.4%

Houston wins

3-0
10.6%
3-1
16.7%
3-2
17.8%
UCF break %
42.8% vs this opp
HOU break %
41.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Noemi DespaigneAttack error+26.8%

    Attack error by Noemi Despaigne

    Set 5 · UCF 16-14 HOU · UCF 73% → 100%

  2. 02
    Avah ArmourKill+21.3%

    Kill by Avah Armour (set by Alexa Haley)

    Set 5 · UCF 13-12 HOU · UCF 47% → 68%

  3. 03
    Sasha CohenKill+19.6%

    Kill by Sasha Cohen (set by Mikayla Porter)

    Set 5 · UCF 14-13 HOU · UCF 54% → 73%

  4. 04
    Sydney JonesKill+19.6%

    Kill by Sydney Jones (set by Gillian Pitts)

    Set 5 · UCF 14-14 HOU · HOU 27% → 46%

  5. 05
    Avah ArmourKill+19.6%

    Kill by Avah Armour (set by Mikayla Porter)

    Set 5 · UCF 15-14 HOU · UCF 54% → 73%

  6. 06
    Alexis RobersonAttack error+15.4%

    Attack error by Alexis Roberson

    Set 5 · UCF 11-11 HOU · UCF 32% → 48%

  7. 07
    UCFService error+14.8%

    UCF service error

    Set 5 · UCF 13-13 HOU · HOU 32% → 46%

  8. 08
    Sydney JonesKill+14.3%

    Kill by Sydney Jones (set by Gillian Pitts)

    Set 5 · UCF 9-10 HOU · HOU 48% → 62%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UCFaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517447.27720113312219
511319.42100010052.513.5
58219.31601320031.510.5
55213.23100000153.58.5
5218.125512550052.56.5
5114.000002600001
515333.36400020111.516.5
5000–3112200001
5000–101200000
3316.33300011010.53.5
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6217149.3025741354432214109
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5271063.2700023000027
521743.3260013102122
57627.037403103010.57.5
55317.118000000216
55312.167100000216
5001.0004813110010.51.5
5000–010200001
5000–2111000001
5000–5021600000
4000–012600001
Team totals6529163.2216041461408499

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UCF vs Houston

Season series · UCF leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 UCF · HOU 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 7 UCFHOU 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 UCFHOU 2

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 UCFHOU 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 2 UCFHOU 2

Set 5

16-14

Longest run 2 UCFHOU 3

Bars above the line = Houston leads, below = UCF leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UCF

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
40%6/15
2
91%10/11
52%11/21
3
60%9/15
25%3/12
4
67%8/12
27%3/11
5
89%8/9
56%10/18
6
58%7/12
20%2/10
All
71%53/75
40%35/87

Houston

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
31%4/13
2
53%10/19
29%4/14
3
82%9/11
17%2/12
4
62%8/13
44%7/16
5
53%8/15
20%2/10
6
70%7/10
30%3/10
All
60%52/87
29%22/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#UCF-HOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCFHOUServe errUCF+1.8
20-2HOUHOUAttack errTara Greenberry+2.5
31-2HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.8
42-2UCFUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+2.6
52-3UCFHOUServe errUCF+1.9
63-3HOUUCFKillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+1.9
73-4UCFHOUServe errUCF+2.0
84-4HOUUCFKillAvah Armour+1.9
94-5UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.0
105-5HOUUCF×7KillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.0
116-5UCFUCF×7BlockedKamille Gibsonblk Sasha Cohen, Kiki Horne+2.8
127-5UCFUCF×7AceUCFaced Noemi Despaigne+2.8
138-5UCFUCF×7Attack errNoemi Despaigne+2.7
149-5UCFUCF×7KillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.5
1510-5UCFUCF×7KillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.2
1611-5UCFUCF×7BlockedAlexis Robersonblk Kiki Horne+1.8
1711-6UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+1.1
1812-6HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+1.3
1912-7UCFHOUServe errUCF+1.0
2013-7HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+1.3
2113-8UCFHOUServe errUCF+1.0
2214-8HOUUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+1.3
2315-8UCFUCF×3BlockedTara Greenberryblk Ella Chapman+1.3
2416-8UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armour+0.9
2516-9UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.4
2617-9HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+0.6
2717-10UCFHOU×3BlockedElla Chapmanblk Tara Greenberry, Noemi Despaigne+0.4
2817-11HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.8
2917-12HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.2
3018-12HOUUCFKillNygeria Hartset Mikayla Porter+1.2
3118-13UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+0.8
3219-13HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+1.2
3319-14UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.7
3420-14HOUUCFServe errHouston+1.1
3520-15UCFHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.6
3621-15HOUUCFServe errHouston+1.0
3722-15UCFUCFBlockedSydney Jonesblk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey+0.7
3822-16UCFHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.2
3922-17HOUHOU×3KillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.5
4022-18HOUHOU×3Attack errSasha Cohen+1.0
4123-18HOUUCFAttack errKamille Gibson+1.2
4224-18UCFUCFAttack errKamille Gibson+0.7
4324-19UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.1
4425-19HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+0.2
Set 2
11-0HOUUCF×5KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.8
22-0UCFUCF×5KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.5
33-0UCFUCF×5KillFallon Stewartset Mikayla Porter+2.4
44-0UCFUCF×5BlockedKamille Gibsonblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen+2.3
55-0UCFUCF×5Attack errSydney Jones+2.0
65-1UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.3
76-1HOUUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+1.5
87-1UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.8
98-1UCFUCF×3KillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+1.5
108-2UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.9
118-3HOUHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.5
129-3HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.3
139-4UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Alexis Roberson+1.1
1410-4HOUUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+1.3
1511-4UCFUCF×3BlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Ella Chapman, Mikayla Porter+1.5
1612-4UCFUCF×3BlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Mikayla Porter, Ella Chapman+1.1
1712-5UCFHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.6
1813-5HOUUCFKillElla Chapmanset Avah Armour+0.8
1913-6UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.6
2013-7HOUHOUBlockedKiki Horneblk Shannon Dworaczyk, Tara Greenberry+1.0
2114-7HOUUCFAttack errSydney Jones+1.0
2215-7UCFUCFAceUCFaced Kamille Gibson+1.0
2315-8UCFHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.5
2416-8HOUUCFKillNygeria Hartset Mikayla Porter+0.7
2516-9UCFHOUAttack errSasha Cohen+0.4
2617-9HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+0.6
2717-10UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.4
2818-10HOUUCFKillMikayla Porterset Mikayla Porter+0.6
2919-10UCFUCFBlockedKamille Gibsonblk Ella Chapman, Avah Armour+0.5
3019-11UCFHOUServe errUCF+0.2
3119-12HOUHOUAttack errElla Chapman+0.4
3220-12HOUUCFServe errHouston+0.5
3321-12UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+0.3
3421-13UCFHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.1
3522-13HOUUCFServe errHouston+0.2
3623-13UCFUCFBlockedSydney Jonesblk Mikayla Porter, Sasha Cohen+0.1
3723-14UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk·
3823-15HOUHOUAttack errKiki Horne·
3924-15HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+0.1
4024-16UCFHOUServe errUCF·
4125-16HOUUCFKillMikayla Porter+0.5
Set 3
11-0HOUUCFServe errHouston+1.2
22-0UCFUCFAttack errKamille Gibson+1.6
32-1UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.2
43-1HOUUCFKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.2
54-1UCFUCFAttack errSydney Jones+1.6
64-2UCFHOU×5KillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.1
74-3HOUHOU×5KillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.6
84-4HOUHOU×5KillTara Greenberry+1.7
94-5HOUHOU×5AceHoustonaced Avah Armour+1.8
104-6HOUHOU×5KillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.8
115-6HOUUCFServe errShannon Dworaczyk+1.3
125-7UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.3
136-7HOUUCF×3Serve errHouston+1.3
147-7UCF
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.9
158-7UCFUCF×3KillNygeria Hartset Mikayla Porter+1.9
168-8UCFHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+1.4
178-9HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.0
188-10HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.0
199-10HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+1.4
209-11UCFHOU×3BlockedKiki Horneblk Alexis Roberson, Kamille Gibson+1.5
219-12HOUHOU×3Attack errNygeria Hart+1.9
229-13HOUHOU×3BlockedAvah Armourblk Noemi Despaigne, Alexis Roberson+1.7
2310-13HOUUCFAttack errNoemi Despaigne+1.1
2410-14UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.3
2510-15HOUHOUKillSydney Jonesset Lily Barron+1.5
2611-15HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+0.8
2711-16UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.1
2812-16HOUUCFAttack errSydney Jones+0.8
2913-16UCFUCFAceUCFaced Kamille Gibson+1.5
3013-17UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
3114-17HOUUCFServe errHouston+1.1
3214-18UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Lily Barron+1.4
3315-18HOUUCF×3Serve errHouston+1.1
3416-18UCFUCF×3KillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.0
3517-18UCFUCF×3KillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.5
3617-19UCFHOU×3KillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.1
3717-20HOUHOU×3AceHoustonaced Nygeria Hart+2.6
3817-21HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.0
3918-21HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+0.9
4018-22UCFHOUServe errUCF+1.4
4118-23HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kamille Gibson+1.1
4219-23HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+0.3
4319-24UCFHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.6
4420-24HOUUCFBlockedSydney Jonesblk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey+0.2
4521-24UCFUCFAttack errAlexis Roberson+0.5
4621-25UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.9
Set 4
10-1HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.3
20-2HOUHOUAttack errNatasha Casey+3.3
31-2HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+2.4
41-3UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.5
51-4HOUHOUKillSydney Jonesset Kamille Gibson+3.3
62-4HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.2
73-4UCFUCFAttack errSydney Jones+3.3
83-5UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.6
93-6HOUHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.4
104-6HOUUCFServe errHouston+2.3
115-6UCFUCFKillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+3.5
125-7UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.7
135-8HOUHOUAttack errMikayla Porter+3.6
146-8HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.4
157-8UCFUCFKillSasha Cohenset Reese Moore+3.7
167-9UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.9
177-10HOUHOUAttack errSasha Cohen+3.8
188-10HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.5
198-11UCFHOUServe errUCF+2.8
208-12HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.5
219-12HOUUCFServe errHouston+2.2
229-13UCFHOUAttack errAvah Armour+2.6
2310-13HOUUCFServe errHouston+2.2
2411-13UCFUCFAttack errSydney Jones+3.6
2511-14UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.1
2612-14HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.7
2712-15UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Kamille Gibson+3.2
2813-15HOUUCFBlockedTara Greenberryblk Avah Armour+2.8
2913-16UCFHOUServe errUCF+3.3
3014-16HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Avah Armour+2.8
3114-17UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.4
3215-17HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.9
3315-18UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+3.5
3416-18HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.9
3517-18UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+5.1
3617-19UCFHOUServe errUCF+4.4
3718-19HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+3.9
3818-20UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.7
3919-20HOUUCFBlockedTara Greenberryblk Avah Armour, Ella Chapman+4.0
4019-21UCFHOUServe errUCF+5.1
4120-21HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+4.2
4220-22UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+5.6
4320-23HOUHOUAceHoustonaced Avah Armour+6.1
4421-23HOUUCFServe errHouston+2.5
4521-24UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.5
4622-24HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+1.7
4722-25UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+5.3
Set 5
11-0UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+8.7
22-0UCFUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+8.6
32-1UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+6.0
43-1HOUUCFServe errHouston+6.5
54-1UCFUCFAceUCFaced Kamille Gibson+8.4
64-2UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Kamille Gibson+5.4
75-2HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+6.3
85-3UCFHOU×3KillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+5.5
95-4HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+9.0
105-5HOUHOU×3Attack errNatasha Casey+10.2
116-5HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+7.9
126-6UCFHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+7.8
136-7HOUHOUAttack errAvah Armour+11.4
147-7HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+8.2
157-8UCFHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+8.9
168-8HOUUCFServe errHouston+8.8
179-8UCFUCFBlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Ella Chapman, Mikayla Porter+13.1
189-9UCFHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+9.4
199-10HOUHOU×3KillSydney Jonesset Gillian Pitts+14.3
209-11HOUHOU×3AceHoustonaced Avah Armour+14.0
2110-11HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+8.5
2211-11UCFUCFAttack errAlexis Roberson+15.4
2311-12UCFHOUServe errUCF+13.1
2412-12HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+12.7
2513-12UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+21.3
2613-13UCFHOUServe errUCF+14.8
2714-13HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+19.6
2814-14UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Gillian Pitts+19.6
2915-14HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+19.6
3016-14UCFUCFAttack errNoemi Despaigne+26.8

Score shown after each rally, UCF first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).