FinalSun, Nov 8, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UCF def. Houston 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: UCF 66.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 8, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UCF beat visiting Houston 3-0 (25-15, 25-23, 25-18) on Sun, Nov 8, 2026. UCF's Avah Armour led with 15 kills, and Alexa Haley added 14 digs.

Data through · final Nov 8

Set123Sets
HOU1523180
UCF2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

15 kills in 3 sets for Avah Armour. UCF swept Houston.

Win probability never moved more than 7.3 points on one rally; Houston topped out at 34% in Set 1. UCF went in as RallyIQ's 66% pick.

HoustonUCF
  • Break %+16.9 pts
    31.047.9

    On serve: 35/73 against 18/58 (Houston sideout 52.1%).

  • Hitting+.156
    .198.354

    Kills and errors: 48–13 vs 36–16.

  • Longest run+2
    46

    UCF scored 6 straight in the first set to go from 7–7 to a 13–7 lead. The set finished 25–15.

UCF above 50Houston belowMax swing 7.3%

HoustonUCF

Aces
Houston 2·UCF 5
Serve err
Houston 4·UCF 5
Blocks
Houston 5·UCF 71 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Houston 31·UCF 40

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UCF above 50 · Houston below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+7.3% UCFrally 131 · set 3

Biggest swing: 7.3% to UCF — set 2, HOU 23-25 UCF. Ace by Natasha Casey. UCF win probability 86% → 93%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HOU 30.6%69.4% UCF

Houston wins

3-0
5.9%
3-1
10.8%
3-2
14.0%

UCF wins

3-0
22.8%
3-1
26.6%
3-2
19.9%
HOU break %
40.4% vs this opp
UCF break %
44.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Natasha Casey

    Set 2 · HOU 23-25 UCF · UCF 86% → 93%

  2. 02

    Kill by Alyssa Gonzales (set by Lily Barron)

    Set 2 · HOU 23-23 UCF · HOU 14% → 20%

  3. 03
    Natasha CaseyKill+5.7%

    Kill by Natasha Casey (set by Abby Schomers)

    Set 2 · HOU 23-24 UCF · UCF 80% → 86%

  4. 04
    Kamille GibsonAttack error+4.8%

    Attack error by Kamille Gibson

    Set 2 · HOU 21-23 UCF · UCF 84% → 88%

  5. 05
    Alexis RobersonBlock+4.1%

    Sasha Cohen stuffed by Alexis Roberson

    Set 2 · HOU 20-20 UCF · HOU 16% → 20%

  6. 06
    Avah ArmourKill+3.8%

    Kill by Avah Armour (set by Alexa Haley)

    Set 2 · HOU 21-22 UCF · UCF 80% → 84%

  7. 07

    Noemi Despaigne stuffed by Natasha Casey & Sasha Cohen

    Set 2 · HOU 18-20 UCF · UCF 83% → 86%

  8. 08
    Sasha CohenKill+3.5%

    Kill by Sasha Cohen (set by Abby Schomers)

    Set 2 · HOU 17-18 UCF · UCF 79% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312835.11420270010.512.5
36013.46200100031.57.5
3307.42900000111.54.5
3103.3332401500212
24313.077000100004
24212.167000010004
3000–210800001
3000–010510001
3000–000000000
3000–200500000
24311.09100000010.54.5
1207.286000000002
Team totals3616101.198302431518556
UCFhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
315434.3243012002116
38215.40003140031.512.5
36211.36400110031.57.5
35110.400111300006
3205.40000000132.54.5
34041.000320060010.54.5
38420.200000200008
3000–5111400001
3000–000100000
3000–100710000
Team totals481399.3544255402112775

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Houston vs UCF

Season series · UCF leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 HOU · UCF 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 2 HOUUCF 6

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 HOUUCF 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 HOUUCF 4

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = Houston leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Houston

SlotSideout %Break %
1
39%7/18
38%5/13
2
58%7/12
13%1/8
3
50%6/12
42%5/12
4
67%6/9
14%1/7
5
55%6/11
40%4/10
6
55%6/11
25%2/8
All
52%38/73
31%18/58

UCF

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
36%4/11
2
64%7/11
63%12/19
3
67%6/9
50%6/12
4
67%6/9
40%4/10
5
86%6/7
40%4/10
6
60%6/10
45%5/11
All
69%40/58
48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

131 rallies

#HOU-UCFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.6
21-1UCFHOUServe errSasha Cohen+1.7
31-2HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.7
42-2UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+1.7
52-3HOUUCFKillAbby Schomersset Mattie Casale+1.7
63-3UCFHOUServe errAvah Armour+1.8
73-4HOUUCFServe errKamille Gibson+1.7
83-5UCFUCFAttack errNoemi Despaigne+2.3
94-5UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+1.7
104-6HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.7
115-6UCFHOUKillKamille Gibson+1.7
125-7HOUUCFServe errTara Greenberry+1.8
136-7UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Lily Barron+1.8
147-7HOUHOUAttack errNatasha Casey+2.6
157-8HOUUCF×6Serve errKalei Edson+1.9
167-9UCFUCF×6BlockedKamille Gibsonblk Ella Chapman, Natasha Casey+2.5
177-10UCFUCF×6BlockedSydney Jonesblk Ella Chapman, Avah Armour+2.3
187-11UCFUCF×6BlockedKamille Gibsonblk Ella Chapman+2.0
197-12UCFUCF×6KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.7
207-13UCFUCF×6Attack errKamille Gibson+1.3
218-13UCFHOUAttack errAvah Armour+0.8
228-14HOUUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.0
238-15UCFUCF×3AceNatasha Caseyaced Noemi Despaigne+1.0
248-16UCFUCF×3AceNatasha Casey+0.7
259-16UCFHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Kalei Edson+0.3
269-17HOUUCFKillFallon Stewartset Abby Schomers+0.4
2710-17UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+0.3
2810-18HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Alexa Haley+0.4
2910-19UCFUCFAceAlexa Haley+0.3
3011-19UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+0.1
3111-20HOUUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+0.2
3211-21UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.1
3311-22UCFUCF×3BlockedSydney Jonesblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen·
3412-22UCFHOUKillSydney Jonesset Kalei Edson·
3513-22HOUHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Sasha Cohen·
3613-23HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers·
3714-23UCFHOUKillKalei Edson·
3815-23HOUHOUKillKamille Gibson·
3915-24HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers·
4015-25UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers·
Set 2
11-0UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+1.5
21-1HOUUCFKillFallon Stewartset Abby Schomers+1.4
32-1UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+1.5
42-2HOUUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.5
52-3UCFUCF×3Bad setKalei Edson+2.0
62-4UCFUCF×3KillFallon Stewartset Abby Schomers+1.9
73-4UCFHOUServe errNatasha Casey+1.4
84-4HOUHOUKillSydney Jonesset Kalei Edson+2.1
94-5HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.5
105-5UCFHOU×4KillSydney Jonesset Kalei Edson+1.6
116-5HOUHOU×4AceMattie Casale+2.3
127-5HOUHOU×4KillTara Greenberry+2.3
138-5HOUHOU×4BlockedKiki Horneblk Tara Greenberry, Kalei Edson+2.3
148-6HOUUCFKillAbby Schomersset Kalei Edson+1.6
158-7UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Sarah Mendoza+2.3
169-7UCFHOUAttack errKiki Horne+1.9
179-8HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.7
189-9UCFUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Alexa Haley+2.4
1910-9UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+1.9
2011-9HOUHOUAttack errKiki Horne+2.6
2111-10HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.8
2211-11UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.6
2312-11UCFHOUServe errFallon Stewart+2.0
2412-12HOUUCFKillAbby Schomersset Gillian Pitts+2.0
2512-13UCFUCFAttack errSydney Jones+2.7
2613-13UCFHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+2.0
2714-13HOUHOU×3Attack errNatasha Casey+3.0
2815-13HOUHOU×3KillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+3.1
2915-14HOUUCFKillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+2.1
3016-14UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+2.4
3116-15HOUUCFServe errKamille Gibson+2.1
3216-16UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Avah Armour+3.2
3317-16UCFHOUBlockedKiki Horneblk Tara Greenberry, Kalei Edson+2.6
3417-17HOUUCFKillAbby Schomers+2.5
3517-18UCFUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+3.5
3618-18UCFHOUServe errAlexa Haley+2.6
3718-19HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+2.8
3818-20UCFUCFBlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen+3.6
3919-20UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+2.3
4020-20HOUHOUBlockedSasha Cohenblk Alexis Roberson+4.1
4120-21HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.4
4221-21UCFHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+3.4
4321-22HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+3.8
4421-23UCFUCFAttack errKamille Gibson+4.8
4522-23UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+2.6
4623-23HOUHOUKillAlyssa Gonzalesset Lily Barron+5.9
4723-24HOUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+5.7
4823-25UCFUCFAceNatasha Casey+7.3
Set 3
11-0HOUHOUBlockedSasha Cohenblk Kamille Gibson, Alexis Roberson+1.2
21-1HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+0.9
31-2UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.1
42-2UCFHOUKillAlyssa Gonzalesset Kalei Edson+0.9
53-2HOUHOUAttack errAvah Armour+1.2
63-3HOUUCFAttack errKamille Gibson+0.9
74-3UCFHOU×3Attack errAvah Armour+0.9
85-3HOUHOU×3AceGillian Pittsaced Sarah Mendoza+1.3
96-3HOUHOU×3KillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+1.3
106-4HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.9
117-4UCFHOUKillOlivia Stringerset Gillian Pitts+1.0
127-5HOUUCFBad setTara Greenberry+0.9
138-5UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+1.0
148-6HOUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Alexa Haley+0.9
158-7UCFUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.3
169-7UCFHOUKillTara Greenberryset Abby Schomers+1.1
1710-7HOUHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Kalei Edson+1.5
1810-8HOUUCFAttack errAlyssa Gonzales+1.0
1910-9UCFUCFKillFallon Stewartset Abby Schomers+1.4
2011-9UCFHOUKillAlyssa Gonzalesset Kamille Gibson+1.2
2111-10HOUUCF×3KillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.1
2211-11UCFUCF×3Attack errKamille Gibson+1.5
2311-12UCFUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.5
2412-12UCFHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Gillian Pitts+1.2
2512-13HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Fallon Stewart+1.2
2612-14UCFUCFBlockedKamille Gibsonblk Avah Armour, Ella Chapman+1.5
2713-14UCFHOUAttack errFallon Stewart+1.1
2813-15HOUUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Ella Chapman+1.2
2913-16UCFUCF×4KillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+1.4
3013-17UCFUCF×4KillKiki Horneset Avah Armour+1.2
3113-18UCFUCF×4Attack errKamille Gibson+0.9
3214-18UCFHOUKillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+0.5
3314-19HOUUCFKillKiki Horneset Avah Armour+0.6
3415-19UCFHOUKillOlivia Stringerset Kamille Gibson+0.4
3516-19HOUHOUBlockedAvah Armourblk Tara Greenberry, Alyssa Gonzales+0.9
3616-20HOUUCFBlockedAlyssa Gonzalesblk Sasha Cohen, Abby Schomers+0.9
3717-20UCFHOUKillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+0.6
3817-21HOUUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+0.9
3917-22UCFUCF×3AceFallon Stewartaced Mattie Casale+0.8
4017-23UCFUCF×3Attack errAlyssa Gonzales+0.4
4118-23UCFHOUKillAlyssa Gonzalesset Kalei Edson+0.1
4218-24HOUUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.2
4318-25UCFUCFKillFallon Stewartset Abby Schomers·

Score shown after each rally, Houston first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).