FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Arizona def. Tarleton St. 3–0

(25-17, 25-23, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TARLET	17	23	22	0
ARIZ	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ARIZ above 50 · TARLET below

Biggest swing: 2.2% to Arizona — set 2, TARLET 22-23 ARIZ. Attack error by LaNeah Lara. ARIZ win probability 94% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TARLET 7.6%92.4% ARIZ

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.2%

3-2

4.4%

Arizona wins

3-0

49.1%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.2%

TARLET break %: 38.2% vs this opp
ARIZ break %: 49.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
LaNeah LaraAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by LaNeah Lara
Set 2 · TARLET 22-23 ARIZ · ARIZ 94% → 96%
02
Renee JonesKill+2.2%
Kill by Renee Jones (set by Brenna Ginder)
Set 2 · TARLET 23-25 ARIZ · ARIZ 97% → 99%
03
TARLET serverService error+2.1%
Tarleton St. service error
Set 2 · TARLET 23-24 ARIZ · ARIZ 95% → 97%
04
Breannah PetersonKill+1.7%
Kill by Breannah Peterson (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 2 · TARLET 22-21 ARIZ · TARLET 6% → 7%
05
Maya FlemisterAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Maya Flemister
Set 2 · TARLET 23-23 ARIZ · TARLET 4% → 5%
06
Carlie CisnerosKill+1.6%
Kill by Carlie Cisneros (set by Maria Olga Siapani)
Set 2 · TARLET 22-22 ARIZ · ARIZ 93% → 94%
07
Carlie CisnerosAttack error+1.5%
Carlie Cisneros stuffed by Madison Frank & Breannah Peterson
Set 2 · TARLET 21-20 ARIZ · TARLET 6% → 7%
08
Harmony SampleBad set+1.5%
Bad set by Harmony Sample
Set 2 · TARLET 18-16 ARIZ · TARLET 6% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Tarleton St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Breannah PetersonOPP	3	8	3	24	.208	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
9Madison FrankMB	3	6	3	14	.214	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
21Madison Natori Rice-LocketOH	3	5	8	20	-.150	0	0	1	9	2	0	0	0	5
23Alyssa DinhMB	3	4	1	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
3LaNeah LaraOH	3	3	6	18	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
5Alexis MasseyS	3	0	0	0	–	18	2	1	5	0	0	0	0	2
11Onita DavisMB	3	15	1	26	.538	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15
13Kingsley MinusS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
14Jacqui McClainOH	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	1	9	1	0	0	0	0
8Leddy Rae GuinnDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	13	2	0	0	0	0
19Alexa EarleL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	23	110	.164	39	4	8	45	7	1	2	2	62

Arizonahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Destiny Ndam-SimpsonOH	3	7	2	23	.217	0	2	1	9	2	0	1	0.5	9.5
14Kennedy OsunsanmiOPP	3	7	3	16	.250	0	0	0	3	0	1	3	2.5	9.5
22Journey TuckerMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	7.5
12Carlie CisnerosOH	3	6	3	27	.111	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	1	7
1Maria Olga SiapaniS	3	0	0	0	–	20	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
23Marina VoslooMB	2	3	1	5	.400	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
2Renee JonesOPP	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Brenna GinderL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	11	0	0	0	0	2
7Harmony SampleS	3	1	0	1	1.000	5	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
8Kristen DearMB	1	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	7
4Maya FlemisterMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Brookelyn HattonL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Gigi WhannL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
21Hayden ReederOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	12	101	.248	28	7	3	38	4	6	10	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 TARLET · ARIZ 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 TARLETARIZ 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 TARLETARIZ 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 5 TARLETARIZ 6

Bars above the line = Arizona leads, below = Tarleton St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Tarleton St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	45%5/11
2	41%7/17	36%4/11
3	39%7/18	50%7/14
4	60%6/10	13%1/8
5	86%6/7	45%5/11
6	63%5/8	25%2/8
All	51%38/74	38%24/63

Arizona

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	54%7/13
2	64%7/11	56%9/16
3	70%7/10	63%12/19
4	64%7/11	22%2/9
5	75%6/8	33%3/9
6	42%5/12	38%3/8
All	62%39/63	49%36/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	TARLET-ARIZ	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ARIZ	ARIZ	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+0.8
2	1-1	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+0.7
3	2-1	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+1.0
4	2-2	TARLET	ARIZ	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Journey Tucker, Kennedy Osunsanmi	+0.7
5	2-3	ARIZ	ARIZ	Kill	Carlie Cisneros	set Brenna Ginder	+0.8
6	3-3	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.7
7	3-4	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Journey Tucker	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.6
8	4-4	ARIZ	TARLET	Attack err	Carlie Cisneros		+0.7
9	4-5	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.7
10	5-5	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.8
11	5-6	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Marina Vosloo	set Harmony Sample	+0.7
12	6-6	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.8
13	6-7	TARLET	ARIZ	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.7
14	7-7	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.8
15	7-8	TARLET	ARIZ×4	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Journey Tucker	+0.7
16	7-9	ARIZ	ARIZ×4	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+0.9
17	7-10	ARIZ	ARIZ×4	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.7
18	7-11	ARIZ	ARIZ×4	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Team	+0.6
19	8-11	ARIZ	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+0.4
20	9-11	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	TARLET server	aced Team	+0.7
21	10-11	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	blk Breannah Peterson	+1.0
22	10-12	TARLET	ARIZ×4	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.7
23	10-13	ARIZ	ARIZ×4	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Alexis Massey	+0.8
24	10-14	ARIZ	ARIZ×4	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+0.7
25	10-15	ARIZ	ARIZ×4	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Jacqui McClain	+0.5
26	11-15	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+0.3
27	11-16	TARLET	ARIZ	Attack err	LaNeah Lara	blk Journey Tucker	+0.4
28	11-17	ARIZ	ARIZ	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Team	+0.3
29	12-17	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+0.2
30	12-18	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Marina Vosloo	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.2
31	12-19	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+0.2
32	13-19	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
33	13-20	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Harmony Sample	set Harmony Sample	+0.1
34	14-20	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.1
35	14-21	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Marina Vosloo	set Harmony Sample	+0.1
36	14-22	ARIZ	ARIZ	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.1
37	15-22	ARIZ	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.0
38	16-22	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+0.1
39	17-22	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.1
40	17-23	TARLET	ARIZ×3	Kill	Renee Jones	set Harmony Sample	+0.2
41	17-24	ARIZ	ARIZ×3	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.1
42	17-25	ARIZ	ARIZ×3	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Journey Tucker	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.4
2	1-1	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+0.4
3	1-2	TARLET	ARIZ×3	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.4
4	1-3	ARIZ	ARIZ×3	Attack err	LaNeah Lara	blk Kennedy Osunsanmi	+0.5
5	1-4	ARIZ	ARIZ×3	Ace	ARIZ server	aced Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.4
6	2-4	ARIZ	TARLET×4	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.3
7	3-4	TARLET	TARLET×4	Ace	TARLET server	aced Team	+0.5
8	4-4	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Carlie Cisneros		+0.6
9	5-4	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Kennedy Osunsanmi		+0.7
10	5-5	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Carlie Cisneros	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.5
11	6-5	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.6
12	6-6	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Renee Jones	set Brenna Ginder	+0.5
13	6-7	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+0.6
14	7-7	ARIZ	TARLET	Attack err	Marina Vosloo		+0.5
15	8-7	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh		+0.8
16	8-8	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Renee Jones	set Harmony Sample	+0.6
17	9-8	ARIZ	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+0.7
18	10-8	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank		+1.0
19	11-8	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+1.1
20	11-9	TARLET	ARIZ	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.7
21	11-10	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+0.9
22	12-10	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+0.8
23	12-11	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.7
24	12-12	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Journey Tucker, Kennedy Osunsanmi	+0.9
25	13-12	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+0.8
26	13-13	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.7
27	14-13	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+0.9
28	14-14	TARLET	ARIZ	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.8
29	15-14	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.9
30	16-14	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+1.3
31	16-15	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Carlie Cisneros	set Harmony Sample	+0.9
32	16-16	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	Alyssa Dinh		+1.1
33	17-16	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+1.0
34	18-16	TARLET	TARLET	Bad set	Harmony Sample		+1.5
35	18-17	TARLET	ARIZ	Attack err	Jacqui McClain		+1.0
36	18-18	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Renee Jones, Journey Tucker	+1.3
37	19-18	ARIZ	TARLET	Serve err	ARIZ server		+1.2
38	19-19	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Journey Tucker	set Harmony Sample	+1.1
39	20-19	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+1.4
40	20-20	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	set Maria Olga Siapani	+1.2
41	21-20	ARIZ	TARLET	Attack err	Carlie Cisneros	blk Madison Frank, Breannah Peterson	+1.5
42	21-21	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Maria Olga Siapani	+1.3
43	22-21	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+1.7
44	22-22	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Carlie Cisneros	set Maria Olga Siapani	+1.6
45	22-23	ARIZ	ARIZ	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+2.2
46	23-23	ARIZ	TARLET	Attack err	Maya Flemister		+1.7
47	23-24	TARLET	ARIZ	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.1
48	23-25	ARIZ	ARIZ	Kill	Renee Jones	set Brenna Ginder	+2.2
Set 3
1	1-0	ARIZ	TARLET	Attack err	Journey Tucker		+0.2
2	1-1	TARLET	ARIZ×5	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Brenna Ginder	+0.2
3	1-2	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+0.2
4	1-3	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Attack err	Madison Frank		+0.2
5	1-4	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Kill	Journey Tucker		+0.2
6	1-5	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+0.2
7	2-5	ARIZ	TARLET×5	Serve err	ARIZ server		+0.1
8	3-5	TARLET	TARLET×5	Attack err	Kennedy Osunsanmi		+0.2
9	4-5	TARLET	TARLET×5	Attack err	Destiny Ndam-Simpson		+0.2
10	5-5	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.3
11	6-5	TARLET	TARLET×5	Attack err	Kennedy Osunsanmi		+0.3
12	6-6	TARLET	ARIZ×6	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+0.2
13	6-7	ARIZ	ARIZ×6	Kill	Kristen Dear	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.3
14	6-8	ARIZ	ARIZ×6	Attack err	Madison Frank	blk Kristen Dear	+0.3
15	6-9	ARIZ	ARIZ×6	Kill	Carlie Cisneros	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.2
16	6-10	ARIZ	ARIZ×6	Kill	Kristen Dear		+0.2
17	6-11	ARIZ	ARIZ×6	Attack err	LaNeah Lara	blk Kennedy Osunsanmi, Kristen Dear	+0.1
18	7-11	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
19	7-12	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Kristen Dear	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.1
20	8-12	ARIZ	TARLET×3	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
21	9-12	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	TARLET server	aced Destiny Ndam-Simpson	+0.2
22	10-12	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.2
23	10-13	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Carlie Cisneros	set Harmony Sample	+0.2
24	11-13	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.2
25	11-14	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Renee Jones	set Harmony Sample	+0.2
26	12-14	ARIZ	TARLET×4	Kill	Onita Davis	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.2
27	13-14	TARLET	TARLET×4	Bad set	Harmony Sample		+0.3
28	14-14	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Renee Jones		+0.4
29	15-14	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.5
30	15-15	TARLET	ARIZ	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.4
31	16-15	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.4
32	17-15	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced Destiny Ndam-Simpson	+0.6
33	17-16	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.4
34	18-16	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.5
35	18-17	TARLET	ARIZ×5	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.4
36	18-18	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Kill	Kennedy Osunsanmi	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.6
37	18-19	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Attack err	Madison Frank	blk Kristen Dear	+0.6
38	18-20	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Attack err	Breannah Peterson	blk Carlie Cisneros	+0.5
39	18-21	ARIZ	ARIZ×5	Kill	Kristen Dear	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.4
40	19-21	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+0.2
41	19-22	TARLET	ARIZ	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson	set Maria Olga Siapani	+0.3
42	20-22	ARIZ	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.2
43	21-22	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+0.5
44	21-23	TARLET	ARIZ	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.5
45	22-23	ARIZ	TARLET	Serve err	ARIZ server		+0.4
46	22-24	TARLET	ARIZ	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Destiny Ndam-Simpson, Kristen Dear	+0.6
47	22-25	ARIZ	ARIZ	Kill	Destiny Ndam-Simpson		+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Tarleton St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.