Rice def. Tarleton St. 3–1
Rice beat visiting Tarleton St. 3-1 (21-25, 25-22, 25-17, 25-14) on Wed, Sep 2, 2026. Rice's Sydnee Peterson led with 17 kills, and Kaia Mateo added 19 digs.
Data through · final Sep 2
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARLET | 25 | 22 | 17 | 14 | 1 |
| RICE | 21 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 4.0% to Tarleton St. — set 2, TARLET 14-11 RICE. Tarleton St. ace on Sydnee Peterson. RICE win probability 74% → 70%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Tarleton St. wins
Rice wins
- TARLET break %
- 36.0% vs this opp
- RICE break %
- 48.5% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Tarleton St.Ace+4.0%
Tarleton St. ace on Sydnee Peterson
Set 2 · TARLET 14-11 RICE · TARLET 26% → 30%
- 02
- 03RiceAce+3.4%
Rice ace
Set 2 · TARLET 14-13 RICE · RICE 72% → 76%
- 04Sydnee PetersonAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Sydnee Peterson
Set 2 · TARLET 9-5 RICE · TARLET 26% → 29%
- 05Ellie SchneiderBlock+3.2%
Jacqui McClain stuffed by Ellie Schneider
Set 2 · TARLET 14-14 RICE · RICE 76% → 79%
- 06Jacqui McClainKill+3.1%
Kill by Jacqui McClain (set by Kingsley Minus)
Set 2 · TARLET 12-11 RICE · TARLET 19% → 22%
- 07Madison FrankKill+3.0%
Kill by Madison Frank (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 2 · TARLET 8-5 RICE · TARLET 23% → 26%
- 08
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 17 | 7 | 46 | .217 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 19.5 | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | .148 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | .174 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | .063 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 5.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 7 | 3 | 16 | .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -.200 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 46 | 21 | 141 | .177 | 46 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 78 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 17 | 7 | 43 | .233 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 19.5 | |
| 4 | 10 | 1 | 21 | .429 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.5 | 14.5 | |
| 4 | 11 | 1 | 16 | .625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3.5 | 14.5 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | .105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 6.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 26 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 10 | 6 | 27 | .148 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 13.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | .231 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 18 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 58 | 19 | 144 | .271 | 56 | 6 | 6 | 69 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 13 | 96 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-21
Set 2
22-25
Set 3
17-25
Set 4
14-25
Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = Tarleton St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Tarleton St.
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57%8/14 | 42%5/12 |
| 2 | 38%8/21 | 33%4/12 |
| 3 | 60%6/10 | 13%1/8 |
| 4 | 86%6/7 | 50%6/12 |
| 5 | 56%5/9 | 0%0/6 |
| 6 | 56%5/9 | 29%2/7 |
| All | 54%38/70 | 32%18/57 |
Rice
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53%8/15 | 33%3/9 |
| 2 | 80%8/10 | 65%15/23 |
| 3 | 70%7/10 | 38%5/13 |
| 4 | 60%6/10 | 25%2/8 |
| 5 | 100%5/5 | 17%1/6 |
| 6 | 71%5/7 | 55%6/11 |
| All | 68%39/57 | 46%32/70 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
174 rallies
| # | TARLET-RICE | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | TARLET | TARLET | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +0.7 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | TARLET | TARLET | Bad set | Kaia Mateo | +0.9 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | TARLET | RICE | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +0.6 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Alyssa Dinh | set Alexis Massey | +0.7 |
| 5 | 3-2 | TARLET | RICE | Blocked | LaNeah Lara | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Kellen Dorotik | +0.6 |
| 6 | 4-2 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Alyssa Dinh | set Alexis Massey | +0.7 |
| 7 | 4-3 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.6 |
| 8 | 5-3 | RICE | TARLET×4 | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Alexis Massey | +0.7 |
| 9 | 6-3 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | +1.1 | |
| 10 | 7-3 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +1.2 |
| 11 | 8-3 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +1.2 | |
| 12 | 8-4 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +0.7 |
| 13 | 9-4 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +1.0 |
| 14 | 9-5 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +0.7 |
| 15 | 10-5 | RICE | TARLET | Blocked | Kellen Dorotik | blk Onita Davis, Jacqui McClain | +1.0 |
| 16 | 11-5 | TARLET | TARLET | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Onita Davis, Alyssa Dinh | +1.3 |
| 17 | 11-6 | TARLET | RICE×3 | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +0.7 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | RICE | RICE×3 | Attack err | Jacqui McClain | +1.1 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +1.1 |
| 20 | 12-8 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Kingsley Minus | +1.1 |
| 21 | 13-8 | TARLET | TARLET | Kill | Alyssa Dinh | set Alexis Massey | +1.4 |
| 22 | 13-9 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.8 |
| 23 | 13-10 | RICE | RICE | Attack err | Breannah Peterson | +1.2 | |
| 24 | 14-10 | RICE | TARLET×3 | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +1.2 |
| 25 | 15-10 | TARLET | TARLET×3 | Attack err | Kellen Dorotik | +1.5 | |
| 26 | 16-10 | TARLET | TARLET×3 | Ace | Tarleton St. | aced Jordan Hummel | +1.4 |
| 27 | 16-11 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.6 |
| 28 | 17-11 | RICE | TARLET | Bad set | Sydnee Peterson | +1.0 | |
| 29 | 17-12 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Zora Bello | +0.6 |
| 30 | 18-12 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Alexis Massey | +1.0 |
| 31 | 19-12 | TARLET | TARLET | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | +1.0 | |
| 32 | 19-13 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Savannah Skopal | +0.4 |
| 33 | 20-13 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Kingsley Minus | +0.7 |
| 34 | 20-14 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ellie Schneider | set Savannah Skopal | +0.3 |
| 35 | 20-15 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo | +0.7 |
| 36 | 21-15 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +0.9 |
| 37 | 22-15 | TARLET | TARLET | Attack err | Kellen Dorotik | +0.7 | |
| 38 | 22-16 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +0.2 |
| 39 | 23-16 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Kingsley Minus | +0.4 |
| 40 | 23-17 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.1 |
| 41 | 24-17 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Madison Natori Rice-Locket | +0.3 |
| 42 | 24-18 | TARLET | RICE×4 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | · |
| 43 | 24-19 | RICE | RICE×4 | Attack err | Breannah Peterson | +0.1 | |
| 44 | 24-20 | RICE | RICE×4 | Attack err | LaNeah Lara | +0.3 | |
| 45 | 24-21 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Jordan Hummel | +0.5 |
| 46 | 25-21 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Alexis Massey | +1.0 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Jacqui McClain | blk Kellen Dorotik, Arissa Smith | +1.5 |
| 2 | 0-2 | RICE | RICE | Ace | Rice | aced LaNeah Lara | +1.3 |
| 3 | 1-2 | RICE | TARLET×5 | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +1.0 |
| 4 | 2-2 | TARLET | TARLET×5 | Ace | Tarleton St. | aced Jordan Hummel | +1.7 |
| 5 | 3-2 | TARLET | TARLET×5 | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Jacqui McClain | +2.1 |
| 6 | 4-2 | TARLET | TARLET×5 | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +2.4 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | TARLET | TARLET×5 | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +2.7 |
| 8 | 5-3 | TARLET | RICE×3 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +1.7 |
| 9 | 5-4 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | +2.3 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | RICE | RICE×3 | Blocked | Alyssa Dinh | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Sydnee Peterson | +2.1 |
| 11 | 6-5 | RICE | TARLET×4 | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | +1.8 |
| 12 | 7-5 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Alexis Massey | +2.7 |
| 13 | 8-5 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Kill | Madison Frank | set Alexis Massey | +3.0 |
| 14 | 9-5 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +3.3 | |
| 15 | 9-6 | TARLET | RICE×4 | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +1.9 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | RICE | RICE×4 | Serve err | Rice | +2.7 | |
| 17–19 | 10-9 | TARLET · RICE 2 | NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.0 | |||
| 20 | 10-10 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ellie Schneider | set Jordan Hummel | +1.8 |
| 21 | 10-11 | RICE | RICE | Bad set | Kingsley Minus | +2.3 | |
| 22 | 11-11 | RICE | TARLET×4 | Serve err | Rice | +1.9 | |
| 23 | 12-11 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Kingsley Minus | +3.1 |
| 24 | 13-11 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | +3.6 | |
| 25 | 14-11 | TARLET | TARLET×4 | Ace | Tarleton St. | aced Sydnee Peterson | +4.0 |
| 26 | 14-12 | TARLET | RICE×4 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal | +2.3 |
| 27 | 14-13 | RICE | RICE×4 | Ace | Rice | +3.4 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | RICE | RICE×4 | Blocked | Jacqui McClain | blk Ellie Schneider | +3.2 |
| 29 | 14-15 | RICE | RICE×4 | Blocked | Onita Davis | blk Arissa Smith | +2.9 |
| 30 | 15-15 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Madison Frank | set Leddy Rae Guinn | +2.4 |
| 31 | 15-16 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Savannah Skopal | +2.2 |
| 32 | 15-17 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +2.7 |
| 33 | 16-17 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Onita Davis | +2.0 |
| 34 | 16-18 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +2.0 |
| 35 | 17-18 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +2.1 |
| 36 | 17-19 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +2.2 |
| 37 | 18-19 | RICE | TARLET | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +2.2 | |
| 38 | 18-20 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Stephanie Gutierrez | +2.3 |
| 39 | 19-20 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | +2.3 |
| 40 | 19-21 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Savannah Skopal | +2.6 |
| 41 | 20-21 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +2.4 |
| 42 | 20-22 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal | +2.9 |
| 43 | 20-23 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Onita Davis | blk Arissa Smith, Ashlyn Seay | +2.7 |
| 44 | 21-23 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +1.2 |
| 45 | 21-24 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Savannah Skopal | +1.9 |
| 46 | 22-24 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alyssa Dinh | +0.8 |
| 47 | 22-25 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +1.7 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | TARLET | TARLET | Ace | Tarleton St. | +1.7 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Sydnee Peterson | +1.1 |
| 3 | 2-1 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +1.3 |
| 4 | 2-2 | TARLET | RICE | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +1.1 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | +1.4 |
| 6 | 4-2 | TARLET | TARLET | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | +2.1 |
| 7 | 4-3 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Savannah Skopal | +1.3 |
| 8 | 5-3 | RICE | TARLET | Bad set | Savannah Skopal | +1.6 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal | +1.4 |
| 10 | 5-5 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Savannah Skopal | +1.8 |
| 11 | 6-5 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +1.5 |
| 12 | 6-6 | TARLET | RICE×3 | Kill | Ellie Schneider | set Savannah Skopal | +1.3 |
| 13 | 6-7 | RICE | RICE×3 | Blocked | Jacqui McClain | blk Arissa Smith, Kellen Dorotik | +1.7 |
| 14 | 6-8 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +1.5 |
| 15 | 7-8 | RICE | TARLET | Attack err | Arissa Smith | +1.1 | |
| 16 | 7-9 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo | +1.1 |
| 17 | 8-9 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Onita Davis | set Kingsley Minus | +1.2 |
| 18 | 9-9 | TARLET | TARLET | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +2.0 | |
| 19 | 9-10 | TARLET | RICE | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +1.4 | |
| 20 | 9-11 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Jordan Hummel | +1.7 |
| 21 | 10-11 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +1.3 |
| 22 | 10-12 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +1.2 |
| 23 | 11-12 | RICE | TARLET | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +1.3 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Savannah Skopal | +1.3 |
| 25 | 11-14 | RICE | RICE | Bad set | Alexis Massey | +1.5 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | +1.1 |
| 27 | 12-15 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal | +1.1 |
| 28 | 13-15 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Madison Frank | set Kingsley Minus | +1.1 |
| 29 | 13-16 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Mari Furoyama | +1.1 |
| 30 | 13-17 | RICE | RICE | Ace | Rice | aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket | +1.2 |
| 31 | 14-17 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Kingsley Minus | +0.8 |
| 32 | 14-18 | TARLET | RICE | Blocked | Onita Davis | blk Ashlyn Seay, Arissa Smith | +0.9 |
| 33 | 15-18 | RICE | TARLET | Serve err | Rice | +0.8 | |
| 34 | 15-19 | TARLET | RICE×4 | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +0.9 |
| 35 | 15-20 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Jordan Hummel | +0.8 |
| 36 | 15-21 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Ashlyn Seay | +0.4 |
| 37 | 15-22 | RICE | RICE×4 | Bad set | Alexis Massey | +0.2 | |
| 38 | 16-22 | RICE | TARLET | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Alyssa Dinh | +0.1 |
| 39 | 16-23 | TARLET | RICE | Attack err | Alyssa Dinh | +0.1 | |
| 40 | 17-23 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Alyssa Dinh | set Alexis Massey | · |
| 41 | 17-24 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal | +0.1 |
| 42 | 17-25 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Breannah Peterson | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Ashlyn Seay | · |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | RICE | RICE | Ace | Rice | aced LaNeah Lara | +0.9 |
| 2 | 1-1 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +0.8 |
| 3 | 1-2 | TARLET | RICE×8 | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +0.7 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Jordan Hummel | +0.8 |
| 5 | 1-4 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +0.7 |
| 6 | 1-5 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +0.6 |
| 7 | 1-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Blocked | Jacqui McClain | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Sydnee Peterson | +0.4 |
| 8 | 1-7 | RICE | RICE×8 | Blocked | Jacqui McClain | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Sydnee Peterson | +0.3 |
| 9 | 1-8 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.2 |
| 10 | 1-9 | RICE | RICE×8 | Attack err | Alyssa Dinh | +0.2 | |
| 11 | 2-9 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Alexis Massey | +0.1 |
| 12 | 2-10 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo | +0.1 |
| 13 | 2-11 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Savannah Skopal | +0.1 |
| 14 | 3-11 | RICE | TARLET | Serve err | Rice | +0.1 | |
| 15 | 3-12 | TARLET | RICE | Serve err | Tarleton St. | +0.1 | |
| 16 | 4-12 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Leddy Rae Guinn | +0.1 |
| 17 | 4-13 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal | +0.1 |
| 18 | 5-13 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Kingsley Minus | +0.1 |
| 19 | 5-14 | TARLET | RICE×3 | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Savannah Skopal | +0.1 |
| 20 | 5-15 | RICE | RICE×3 | Attack err | Madison Natori Rice-Locket | +0.1 | |
| 21 | 5-16 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Jordan Hummel | · |
| 22 | 6-16 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Jacqui McClain | set Kingsley Minus | · |
| 23 | 6-17 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | · |
| 24 | 7-17 | RICE | TARLET×3 | Serve err | Rice | · | |
| 25 | 8-17 | TARLET | TARLET×3 | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | · | |
| 26 | 9-17 | TARLET | TARLET×3 | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | · |
| 27 | 9-18 | TARLET | RICE×4 | Serve err | Tarleton St. | · | |
| 28 | 9-19 | RICE | RICE×4 | Blocked | Jacqui McClain | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Sydnee Peterson | · |
| 29 | 9-20 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Kaia Mateo | · |
| 30 | 9-21 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | · |
| 31 | 10-21 | RICE | TARLET | Kill | Breannah Peterson | set Alexis Massey | · |
| 32 | 10-22 | TARLET | RICE | Blocked | Breannah Peterson | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Sydnee Peterson | · |
| 33 | 10-23 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Jordan Hummel | · |
| 34 | 11-23 | RICE | TARLET×3 | Kill | LaNeah Lara | set Jacqui McClain | · |
| 35 | 12-23 | TARLET | TARLET×3 | Attack err | Ellie Schneider | · | |
| 36 | 13-23 | TARLET | TARLET×3 | Attack err | Stephanie Gutierrez | · | |
| 37 | 13-24 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ellie Schneider | set Savannah Skopal | · |
| 38 | 14-24 | RICE | TARLET | Serve err | Rice | · | |
| 39 | 14-25 | TARLET | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Savannah Skopal | · |
Score shown after each rally, Tarleton St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).