Final · 5 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UCF def. Iowa St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: UCF 56.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UCF beat visiting Iowa St. 3-2 (25-17, 25-13, 18-25, 22-25, 15-5) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. UCF's Avah Armour led with 18 kills, and Alexa Haley added 18 digs.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set12345Sets
IOWAST1713252552
UCF25251822153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UCF won it at the net: 14 blocks, led by Ella Chapman.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are UCF's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had UCF at 57%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Iowa St. 22–21 UCF

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Iowa St., enough to take the set 25–22 and level the match at 2–2.

    UCF 67% → 52%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Iowa St. 3–3 UCF

    From 3–3, UCF scored 3 straight to lead 6–3.

    UCF 54% → 79%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Iowa St. 4–6 UCF

    3 straight UCF points stretched a 6–4 lead to 9–4.

    UCF 74% → 93%

UCF above 50Iowa St. belowMax swing 9.5%

Iowa St.UCF

Sideout %
Iowa St. 52.4·UCF 64.7
Break %
Iowa St. 35.3·UCF 47.6
Hitting
Iowa St. .123·UCF .289
Longest run
Iowa St. 4·UCF 7
Blocks
Iowa St. 5·UCF 141 BS · 8 BA vs 6 BS · 16 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UCF above 50 · Iowa St. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+9.5% UCFrally 190 · set 5

Biggest swing: 9.5% to UCF — set 5, IOWAST 3-5 UCF. Nayeli Gonzalez stuffed by Natasha Casey & Ella Chapman. UCF win probability 61% → 71%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

IOWAST 38.1%61.9% UCF

Iowa St. wins

3-0
8.1%
3-1
13.8%
3-2
16.2%

UCF wins

3-0
18.2%
3-1
23.7%
3-2
20.0%
IOWAST break %
40.4% vs this opp
UCF break %
42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Nayeli Gonzalez stuffed by Natasha Casey & Ella Chapman

    Set 5 · IOWAST 3-5 UCF · UCF 61% → 71%

  2. 02
    Kiki HorneKill+8.7%

    Kill by Kiki Horne (set by Abby Schomers)

    Set 5 · IOWAST 0-1 UCF · UCF 52% → 60%

  3. 03
    Ava MartinBad set+8.7%

    Bad set by Ava Martin

    Set 5 · IOWAST 3-6 UCF · UCF 71% → 79%

  4. 04
    Abby SchomersKill+7.4%

    Kill by Abby Schomers (set by Ava Martin)

    Set 5 · IOWAST 4-8 UCF · UCF 80% → 88%

  5. 05
    Fallon StewartService error+7.1%

    Service error by Fallon Stewart

    Set 4 · IOWAST 24-22 UCF · IOWAST 34% → 41%

  6. 06
    Nayeli GonzalezAttack error+7.0%

    Attack error by Nayeli Gonzalez

    Set 5 · IOWAST 3-4 UCF · UCF 54% → 61%

  7. 07
    Natasha CaseyAttack error+6.8%

    Attack error by Natasha Casey

    Set 4 · IOWAST 25-22 UCF · IOWAST 41% → 48%

  8. 08
    Daaliyah KempKill+6.7%

    Kill by Daaliyah Kemp (set by Ella Florez)

    Set 5 · IOWAST 3-3 UCF · IOWAST 39% → 46%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512327.3330002000012
58533.0910136002110
52414-.14300020132.54.5
5349-.11110010010.53.5
5116.000291060010.52.5
24110.300001600004
511428.25001111100012
510931.03200070010.510.5
5002.0006112610001
4002.0001011200001
2001.000001000000
Team totals5131163.123465869518585
UCFhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518550.26021212012221
59219.3680013024413
57320.20002330031.510.5
54113.231000103459
5406.6674703600215
5206.3330021300002
514435.28600020010.514.5
5000–4221810002
5000–001200000
5000–0001220000
1000–000000000
Team totals5815149.2895351472561614105

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Iowa St. vs UCF

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 IOWAST · UCF 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 IOWASTUCF 6

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 IOWASTUCF 7

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 3 IOWASTUCF 4

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 IOWASTUCF 3

Set 5

5-15

Longest run 1 IOWASTUCF 6

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = Iowa St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Iowa St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%12/16
44%7/16
2
53%9/17
29%4/14
3
45%9/20
25%3/12
4
43%9/21
53%10/19
5
64%9/14
18%2/11
6
41%7/17
31%4/13
All
52%55/105
35%30/85

UCF

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
17%2/12
2
67%10/15
39%7/18
3
60%9/15
61%14/23
4
56%9/16
40%6/15
5
82%9/11
57%12/21
6
64%7/11
56%9/16
All
65%55/85
48%50/105

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

190 rallies

#IOWAST-UCFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0IOWASTIOWASTAttack errSasha Cohen+2.5
21-1IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.8
32-1UCFIOWASTServe errSasha Cohen+1.9
42-2IOWASTUCF×3BlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Natasha Casey, Ella Chapman+1.8
52-3UCFUCF×3Attack errNayeli Gonzalez+2.6
62-4UCFUCF×3BlockedPam McCuneblk Ella Chapman+2.5
73-4UCFIOWASTServe errNatasha Casey+1.8
83-5IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+1.8
94-5UCFIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.8
105-5IOWASTIOWAST×3KillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+2.7
116-5IOWASTIOWAST×3AceIowa St.aced Sarah Mendoza+2.8
126-6IOWASTUCF×6Attack errNayeli Ti'a+2.0
136-7UCFUCF×6AceAlexa Haley+2.9
146-8UCFUCF×6BlockedTaylor Johnsonblk Sasha Cohen+2.8
156-9UCFUCF×6BlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Abby Schomers, Sasha Cohen+2.6
166-10UCFUCF×6KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.4
176-11UCFUCF×6KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+2.0
187-11UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez+1.2
197-12IOWASTUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.5
208-12UCFIOWASTServe errAbby Schomers+1.2
218-13IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.5
229-13UCFIOWASTBlockedAvah Armourblk Ella Florez, Pam McCune+1.2
239-14IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.5
2410-14UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.2
2510-15IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.5
2611-15UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.2
2711-16IOWASTUCFKillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+1.5
2811-17UCFUCFAttack errAlea Goolsby+1.5
2912-17UCFIOWASTServe errAvah Armour+0.8
3012-18IOWASTUCF×3KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.1
3112-19UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.9
3212-20UCFUCF×3AceAlexa Haleyaced Rachel Van Gorp+0.5
3313-20UCFIOWASTKillElla Florezset Sarah Mendoza+0.2
3413-21IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+0.3
3514-21UCFIOWASTKillTaylor Johnsonset Ella Florez+0.1
3614-22IOWASTUCFServe errIowa St.+0.2
3715-22UCFIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+0.1
3815-23IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+0.2
3916-23UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez·
4017-23IOWASTIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+0.1
4117-24IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+0.2
4217-25UCFUCFAceNatasha Casey·
Set 2
11-0UCFIOWASTServe errFallon Stewart+1.7
21-1IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.7
31-2UCFUCFAttack errDaaliyah Kemp+2.4
42-2UCFIOWASTKillAlea Goolsbyset Rachel Van Gorp+1.7
52-3IOWASTUCFKillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+1.7
62-4UCFUCFKillAbby Schomersset Ella Florez+2.4
73-4UCFIOWASTKillAlea Goolsbyset Ella Florez+1.7
84-4IOWASTIOWASTAceIowa St.+2.5
94-5IOWASTUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.8
104-6UCFUCF×3KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+2.5
114-7UCFUCF×3Attack errTaylor Johnson+2.3
125-7UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+1.6
135-8IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.7
145-9UCFUCFBlockedMesaiya Bettisblk Abby Schomers, Sasha Cohen+2.2
156-9UCFIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+1.4
166-10IOWASTUCFKillAbby Schomers+1.6
176-11UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Alexa Haley+1.9
187-11UCFIOWASTKillMesaiya Bettisset Ella Florez+1.1
198-11IOWASTIOWASTBlockedSasha Cohenblk Pam McCune+1.9
208-12IOWASTUCFServe errIowa St.+1.6
219-12UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.4
229-13IOWASTUCFKillFallon Stewartset Abby Schomers+1.7
239-14UCFUCFAttack errTaylor Johnson+1.9
2410-14UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.1
2510-15IOWASTUCF×7Attack errNayeli Gonzalez+1.4
2610-16UCFUCF×7AceNatasha Casey+1.5
2710-17UCFUCF×7Attack errTaylor Johnson+1.0
2810-18UCFUCF×7Attack errAlea Goolsby+0.6
2910-19UCFUCF×7KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.4
3010-20UCFUCF×7BlockedElla Florezblk Avah Armour+0.2
3110-21UCFUCF×7KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.1
3211-21UCFIOWASTAttack errNatasha Casey·
3311-22IOWASTUCFServe errIowa St.·
3412-22UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ella Florez·
3512-23IOWASTUCFAttack errNayeli Gonzalez·
3612-24UCFUCFBlockedAlea Goolsbyblk Sasha Cohen·
3713-24UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Rachel Van Gorp·
3813-25IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers·
Set 3
11-0IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Rachel Van Gorp+1.5
21-1IOWASTUCFAttack errDaaliyah Kemp+1.1
32-1UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+1.1
43-1IOWASTIOWASTAttack errElla Chapman+1.6
53-2IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.1
64-2UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.1
74-3IOWASTUCFKillFallon Stewartset Avah Armour+1.1
85-3UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+1.2
96-3IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+1.6
106-4IOWASTUCFKillKiki Horneset Avah Armour+1.0
117-4UCFIOWASTServe errAlexa Haley+1.2
127-5IOWASTUCFServe errIowa St.+1.1
138-5UCFIOWAST×3KillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+1.2
149-5IOWASTIOWAST×3KillAlea Goolsbyset Ava Martin+1.6
1510-5IOWASTIOWAST×3AceIowa St.+1.4
1610-6IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+0.8
1710-7UCFUCFAttack errNayeli Ti'a+1.4
1811-7UCFIOWAST×3KillAlea Goolsbyset Ava Martin+1.2
1912-7IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Ti'aset Rachel Van Gorp+1.4
2013-7IOWASTIOWAST×3AceIowa St.aced Alexa Haley+1.2
2113-8IOWASTUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+0.6
2214-8UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+0.8
2314-9IOWASTUCFServe errIowa St.+0.6
2414-10UCFUCFBad setElla Florez+1.1
2515-10UCFIOWASTServe errNatasha Casey+1.0
2616-10IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+1.1
2716-11IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.6
2817-11UCFIOWAST×3Attack errKiki Horne+0.8
2918-11IOWASTIOWAST×3AceIowa St.aced Sarah Mendoza+0.8
3019-11IOWASTIOWAST×3BlockedAvah Armourblk Taylor Johnson, Alea Goolsby+0.5
3119-12IOWASTUCFServe errIowa St.+0.2
3220-12UCFIOWASTServe errAlexa Haley+0.3
3320-13IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+0.1
3421-13UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+0.2
3521-14IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+0.1
3622-14UCFIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ava Martin+0.2
3723-14IOWASTIOWASTKillPam McCuneset Ella Florez+0.1
3823-15IOWASTUCF×4BlockedNayeli Ti'ablk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen·
3923-16UCFUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers·
4023-17UCFUCF×4BlockedPam McCuneblk Avah Armour, Ella Chapman+0.1
4123-18UCFUCF×4Attack errPam McCune+0.2
4224-18UCFIOWASTServe errReese Moore+0.3
4325-18IOWASTIOWASTBlockedNatasha Caseyblk Alea Goolsby, Pam McCune+0.1
Set 4
11-0UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+2.3
21-1IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+2.3
32-1UCFIOWAST×3KillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+2.4
43-1IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errAvah Armour+3.3
54-1IOWASTIOWAST×3KillAlea Goolsbyset Ella Florez+3.2
64-2IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.1
74-3UCFUCFBlockedDaaliyah Kempblk Avah Armour, Ella Chapman+3.2
85-3UCFIOWAST×4KillAlea Goolsbyset Ella Florez+2.5
96-3IOWASTIOWAST×4Attack errAvah Armour+3.4
107-3IOWASTIOWAST×4KillNayeli Gonzalezset Rachel Van Gorp+3.2
118-3IOWASTIOWAST×4Attack errAvah Armour+2.9
128-4IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.7
139-4UCFIOWASTServe errAvah Armour+2.1
149-5IOWASTUCFKillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+1.7
159-6UCFUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+2.9
1610-6UCFIOWAST×3KillTaylor Johnsonset Ava Martin+2.4
1711-6IOWASTIOWAST×3KillTaylor Johnsonset Abby Schomers+3.0
1812-6IOWASTIOWAST×3BlockedKiki Horneblk Nayeli Gonzalez, Pam McCune+2.5
1912-7IOWASTUCF×3KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.4
2012-8UCFUCF×3KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+2.4
2112-9UCFUCF×3BlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Kiki Horne, Sasha Cohen+3.0
2213-9UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ava Martin+2.6
2314-9IOWASTIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+3.0
2414-10IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.7
2515-10UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+2.2
2615-11IOWASTUCF×3KillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+1.7
2715-12UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.0
2815-13UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.7
2916-13UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+3.2
3016-14IOWASTUCF×3Serve errIowa St.+2.7
3116-15UCFUCF×3KillElla Chapman+4.5
3216-16UCFUCF×3BlockedAlea Goolsbyblk Ella Chapman+5.1
3317-16UCFIOWASTKillAlea Goolsbyset Ella Florez+3.9
3418-16IOWASTIOWASTKillAlea Goolsbyset Rachel Van Gorp+5.5
3518-17IOWASTUCFKillAbby Schomers+3.5
3618-18UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+5.7
3719-18UCFIOWAST×3Attack errKiki Horne+4.5
3820-18IOWASTIOWAST×3Attack errKiki Horne+6.3
3921-18IOWASTIOWAST×3KillNayeli Ti'aset Ava Martin+5.5
4021-19IOWASTUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+2.8
4122-19UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Taylor Johnson+4.1
4222-20IOWASTUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.7
4322-21UCFUCFAttack errAlea Goolsby+5.9
4423-21UCFIOWASTServe errAbby Schomers+6.1
4523-22IOWASTUCFBad setNayeli Ti'a+4.3
4624-22UCFIOWASTServe errFallon Stewart+7.1
4725-22IOWASTIOWASTAttack errNatasha Casey+6.8
Set 5
10-1UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+8.7
21-1UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Ti'aset Ella Florez+6.2
31-2IOWASTUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+6.4
42-2UCFIOWASTServe errAbby Schomers+6.5
52-3IOWASTUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+6.7
63-3UCFIOWASTKillDaaliyah Kempset Ella Florez+6.7
73-4IOWASTUCF×3Attack errNayeli Gonzalez+7.0
83-5UCFUCF×3BlockedNayeli Gonzalezblk Natasha Casey, Ella Chapman+9.5
93-6UCFUCF×3Bad setAva Martin+8.7
104-6UCFIOWASTKillNayeli Gonzalezset Ava Martin+5.4
114-7IOWASTUCF×3Serve errIowa St.+6.4
124-8UCFUCF×3KillAbby Schomersset Ava Martin+7.4
134-9UCFUCF×3Attack errNayeli Gonzalez+5.5
145-9UCFIOWASTServe errNatasha Casey+2.6
155-10IOWASTUCF×6KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.8
165-11UCFUCF×6KillKiki Horneset Alexa Haley+3.3
175-12UCFUCF×6Attack errNayeli Ti'a+1.6
185-13UCFUCF×6KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+0.6
195-14UCFUCF×6BlockedPam McCuneblk Ella Chapman+0.2
205-15UCFUCF×6AceAvah Armouraced Nayeli Ti'a·

Score shown after each rally, Iowa St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).