Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026 · Neutral site

Northern Colo. def. Wichita St. 3–1

Northern Colo. beat Wichita St. 3-1 (25-17, 22-25, 25-22, 25-19) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026 at a neutral site. Northern Colo.'s Alayna Tessena led with 17 kills, and Bella LePore added 22 digs.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set1234Sets
WICHST172522191
N COLO252225253

Win probability

Northern Colo. above 50 · Wichita St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.1% N COLOrally 180 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.1% to Northern Colo. — set 3, WICHST 21-23 N COLO. Point Northern Colo. (not logged in NCAA feed). N COLO win probability 63% → 71%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WICHST 41.8%58.2% N COLO

Wichita St. wins

3-0
9.3%
3-1
15.3%
3-2
17.1%

Northern Colo. wins

3-0
16.3%
3-1
22.2%
3-2
19.8%
WICHST break %
43.2% vs this opp
N COLO break %
44.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+8.1%

    Point Northern Colo. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · WICHST 21-23 N COLO · N COLO 63% → 71%

  2. 02
    Northern Colo.Service error+7.5%

    Northern Colo. service error

    Set 3 · WICHST 20-21 N COLO · N COLO 55% → 62%

  3. 03

    Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 3 · WICHST 22-24 N COLO · N COLO 66% → 74%

  4. 04
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+6.8%

    Point Northern Colo. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · WICHST 20-20 N COLO · N COLO 48% → 55%

  5. 05

    Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 3 · WICHST 21-22 N COLO · N COLO 56% → 63%

  6. 06
    Allie PaulsenKill+6.0%

    Kill by Allie Paulsen (set by Addie Oeth)

    Set 2 · WICHST 22-21 N COLO · WICHST 25% → 31%

  7. 07

    Gillian Walton stuffed by Allie Paulsen & Olivia Cohee

    Set 2 · WICHST 23-21 N COLO · WICHST 31% → 37%

  8. 08

    Kill by McKenzie Jones (set by Jordan Heatherly)

    Set 3 · WICHST 21-21 N COLO · WICHST 38% → 44%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411523.26100020010.511.5
47317.23500120132.59.5
48325.200102700219
4519.44400010031.56.5
4113.0001910900002
23Gabi MaasL/DS
4001.000201510000
413530.26701110102115
41011.000600820001
4000–2403400000
37421.14300020010.57.5
1248-.250000000002
Team totals5526138.2105228505112783
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417335.40001410004220
412122.5000000016416
411425.28000110052.513.5
47320.20010160132.59.5
45317.11810020031.56.5
44114.214480110010.54.5
4000–4212210002
4000–011700001
4000–011200001
11011.000000000001
Team totals5715134.313545105122221397

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 WICHST · N COLO 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 WICHSTN COLO 6

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 WICHSTN COLO 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 WICHSTN COLO 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 WICHSTN COLO 6

Bars above the line = Northern Colo. leads, below = Wichita St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Wichita St.

No clean sets to split.

Northern Colo.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

180 rallies

#WICHST-N COLOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1N COLON COLO×6KillSummer Snead+2.3
2–40-4N COLO 3
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+6.5
50-5N COLON COLO×6Attack errMaddie Wilson+1.8
60-6N COLON COLO×6KillAlayna Tessenaset Gillian Walton+1.6
71-6N COLOWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+1.1
81-7WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessena+1.2
92-7N COLOWICHSTAttack errAlayna Tessena+1.1
102-8WICHSTN COLO×3Attack errOlivia Cohee+1.2
112-9N COLON COLO×3Attack errElinor Engel+1.3
122-10N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
133-10N COLOWICHSTKillAllie Paulsenset Addie Oeth+0.6
144-10WICHSTWICHSTServe errWichita St.+1.0
15–164-12N COLO 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
175-12N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Addie Oeth+0.6
185-13WICHSTN COLO×3KillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Bella LePore+0.7
19–205-15N COLO 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
216-15N COLOWICHSTKillElinor Engel+0.2
227-15WICHSTWICHSTAceWichita St.aced Bella LePore+0.4
23–248-16WICHST · N COLO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
258-17WICHSTN COLOServe errWichita St.+0.4
269-17N COLOWICHSTKillMaddie Wilsonset Jordan Heatherly+0.3
279-18WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.4
289-19N COLON COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.3
2910-19N COLOWICHSTKillOlivia Coheeset Grace Hett+0.1
3010-20WICHSTN COLOAttack errOlivia Cohee+0.2
3111-20N COLOWICHSTKillElinor Engelset Addie Oeth+0.1
3212-20WICHSTWICHSTServe errWichita St.+0.2
33–3514-21WICHST 2 · N COLO
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
3614-22WICHSTN COLOAttack errElinor Engel+0.3
3714-23N COLON COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.1
3815-23N COLOWICHST×3KillMaddie Wilson·
3916-23WICHST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
4017-23WICHSTWICHST×3Serve errWichita St.+0.2
4117-24WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessena+0.3
4217-25N COLON COLOBlockedJordan Heatherlyblk Summer Snead, Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.1
Set 2
11-0WICHSTWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jones+2.2
21-1WICHSTN COLO×3Attack errNerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
31-2N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessena+2.2
41-3N COLON COLO×3BlockedMcKenzie Jonesblk Summer Snead, Leila Ballard+2.2
52-3N COLOWICHSTServe errNorthern Colo.+1.7
62-4WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Snead+1.7
7–84-4WICHST 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.0
94-5WICHSTN COLOKillLeila Ballard+1.8
105-5N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbage+1.9
115-6WICHSTN COLO×5Attack errOlivia Cohee+1.9
12–135-8N COLO 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.6
145-9N COLON COLO×5Serve errNorthern Colo.+2.0
155-10N COLON COLO×5KillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
166-10N COLOWICHSTServe errNorthern Colo.+1.2
177-10WICHSTWICHSTServe errWichita St.+1.8
187-11N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
198-11N COLOWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+1.5
208-12WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
219-12N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Jordan Heatherly+1.5
2210-12WICHSTWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+2.3
2310-13WICHSTN COLOServe errWichita St.+2.0
2411-13N COLOWICHSTAttack errLeila Ballard+1.8
2511-14WICHSTN COLOKillGillian Walton+2.1
2611-15N COLON COLOAceNorthern Colo.aced Gabi Maas+2.3
2712-15N COLOWICHSTServe errNorthern Colo.+1.5
2812-16N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
2913-16N COLOWICHSTKillOlivia Coheeset Addie Oeth+1.5
3014-16WICHSTWICHSTKillDanielle Moore+2.5
3114-17WICHSTN COLOServe errWichita St.+2.3
3215-17N COLOWICHSTKillDanielle Mooreset Addie Oeth+2.0
3315-18WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.4
3416-18N COLOWICHSTKillMaddie Wilsonset Jordan Heatherly+2.0
35–3617-19WICHST · N COLO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
3718-19WICHSTWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Jordan Heatherly+3.4
3818-20WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.2
3919-20N COLOWICHSTServe errNorthern Colo.+2.8
4019-21WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Snead+3.5
4120-21N COLOWICHST×5KillJenna Cubbage+3.0
4221-21WICHSTWICHST×5Attack errGillian Walton+5.1
4322-21WICHSTWICHST×5KillAllie Paulsenset Addie Oeth+6.0
4423-21WICHSTWICHST×5BlockedGillian Waltonblk Allie Paulsen, Olivia Cohee+6.0
4524-21WICHSTWICHST×5AceWichita St.+4.5
4624-22WICHSTN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
4725-22N COLOWICHSTKillGrace Hettset Olivia Cohee+3.3
Set 3
11-0N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Grace Hett+2.5
21-1WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
32-1WICHST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.6
43-1WICHSTWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jonesset Gabi Maas+3.4
53-2WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
64-2N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Jordan Heatherly+2.7
74-3WICHSTN COLO×4Serve errWichita St.+2.6
84-4N COLON COLO×4BlockedJenna Cubbageblk Gillian Walton, Maddie Rink+3.4
94-5N COLON COLO×4AceNorthern Colo.aced Grace Hett+3.4
104-6N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
115-6N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Addie Oeth+2.6
126-6WICHSTWICHSTKillDanielle Mooreset Addie Oeth+3.5
136-7WICHSTN COLOAttack errDanielle Moore+2.8
146-8N COLON COLOAceNorthern Colo.aced Jenna Cubbage+3.5
157-8N COLOWICHSTKillOlivia Cohee+2.7
167-9WICHSTN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.8
178-9N COLOWICHSTKillDanielle Mooreset Addie Oeth+2.8
188-10WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Leila Ballard+2.9
199-10N COLOWICHSTKillMaddie Wilsonset Jordan Heatherly+2.8
209-11WICHSTN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Bella LePore+3.0
2110-11N COLOWICHSTKillMaddie Wilson+2.9
2210-12N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.1
2311-12N COLOWICHSTKillAllie Paulsenset Jordan Heatherly+3.0
2412-12WICHSTWICHSTKillJenna Cubbage+4.3
2512-13WICHSTN COLOAttack errJenna Cubbage+3.5
2613-13N COLOWICHST×4KillDanielle Mooreset Addie Oeth+3.5
2714-13WICHSTWICHST×4Attack errLeila Ballard+4.7
2815-13WICHSTWICHST×4KillAllie Paulsenset Addie Oeth+4.8
2916-13WICHST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.6
3016-14WICHSTN COLOKillRiley Taylor+3.1
3117-14N COLOWICHSTAttack errRiley Taylor+3.7
3218-14WICHSTWICHSTBlockedNerea Alvarez-Jorgeblk Maddie Wilson+4.1
3318-15N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
3419-15N COLOWICHSTAttack errMaddie Rink+3.3
3519-16WICHSTN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.4
3619-17N COLON COLOKillSummer Sneadset McKenzie Jones+4.2
3720-17N COLOWICHSTKillOlivia Cohee+4.3
3820-18WICHSTN COLO×4Attack errOlivia Cohee+3.3
3920-19N COLON COLO×4Attack errJenna Cubbage+5.6
4020-20N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+6.8
4120-21N COLON COLO×4Serve errNorthern Colo.+7.5
4221-21N COLOWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+5.8
4321-22WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+6.6
44–4522-23WICHST · N COLO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
4622-24WICHSTN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+7.4
4722-25N COLON COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+5.4
Set 4
1–21-1WICHST · N COLO
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
31-2WICHSTN COLOKillGillian Walton+2.3
42-2N COLOWICHSTAttack errLeila Ballard+2.4
52-3WICHSTN COLO×3KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.4
62-4N COLON COLO×3Attack errAllie Paulsen+3.0
72-5N COLON COLO×3Attack errDanielle Moore+2.8
83-5N COLOWICHSTKillJenna Cubbageset Addie Oeth+2.1
93-6WICHSTN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
104-6N COLOWICHSTKillAllie Paulsen+2.2
114-7WICHSTN COLOKillMaddie Rink+2.3
125-7N COLOWICHSTAttack errAlayna Tessena+2.2
135-8WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.4
146-8N COLOWICHST×3Serve errNorthern Colo.+2.2
157-8WICHSTWICHST×3BlockedSummer Sneadblk Jenna Cubbage, Maddie Wilson+3.2
168-8WICHSTWICHST×3KillJordan Heatherly+3.5
178-9WICHSTN COLOAttack errJordan Heatherly+2.8
189-9N COLOWICHST×3KillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+2.8
1910-9WICHST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.8
2011-9WICHSTWICHST×3KillMcKenzie Jonesset Gabi Maas+3.9
2111-10WICHSTN COLOKillAlayna Tessena+2.8
2211-11N COLON COLOAceNorthern Colo.+3.9
2312-11N COLOWICHSTKillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+3.2
2412-12WICHSTN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.1
2513-12N COLOWICHSTKillDanielle Moore+3.3
2613-13WICHSTN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.3
2713-14N COLON COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.3
2814-14N COLOWICHSTKillOlivia Coheeset Addie Oeth+3.4
2914-15WICHSTN COLO×6KillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.5
3014-16N COLON COLO×6KillNerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.4
3114-17N COLON COLO×6BlockedDanielle Mooreblk Alayna Tessena, Maddie Rink+4.0
3214-18N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.3
3314-19N COLON COLO×6KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
3414-20N COLO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
3515-20N COLOWICHST×4KillMaddie Wilsonset Addie Oeth+0.8
3616-20WICHSTWICHST×4KillMaddie Wilsonset Jordan Heatherly+1.6
3717-20WICHSTWICHST×4KillMcKenzie Jonesset Jordan Heatherly+2.5
3818-20WICHSTWICHST×4KillOlivia Coheeset Grace Hett+3.6
3918-21WICHSTN COLO×3Serve errWichita St.+3.7
4018-22N COLON COLO×3Serve errNorthern Colo.+3.5
4118-23N COLON COLO×3AceNorthern Colo.aced Grace Hett+2.0
4219-23N COLOWICHSTKillOlivia Coheeset Grace Hett+0.7
4319-24WICHSTN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.2
4419-25N COLON COLOBlockedMaddie Wilsonblk Summer Snead+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Wichita St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).