FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeAMERICAN

North Texas def. Tarleton St. 3–0

(25-14, 25-23, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TARLET	14	23	14	0
NO TEX	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NO TEX above 50 · TARLET below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to North Texas — set 2, TARLET 22-24 NO TEX. Attack error by Onita Davis. NO TEX win probability 92% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TARLET 17.1%82.9% NO TEX

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

2.6%

3-1

5.6%

3-2

8.9%

North Texas wins

3-0

34.6%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

17.4%

TARLET break %: 40.3% vs this opp
NO TEX break %: 47.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Onita DavisAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Onita Davis
Set 2 · TARLET 22-24 NO TEX · NO TEX 92% → 95%
02
NO TEX serverAce+3.2%
North Texas ace on Jacqui McClain
Set 2 · TARLET 21-22 NO TEX · NO TEX 89% → 92%
03
Jahniya JacksonKill+3.2%
Kill by Jahniya Jackson (set by Sidney Soria)
Set 2 · TARLET 23-25 NO TEX · NO TEX 94% → 97%
04
Onita DavisKill+3.1%
Kill by Onita Davis (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 2 · TARLET 21-19 NO TEX · TARLET 13% → 16%
05
Lillian CroshawKill+3.0%
Kill by Lillian Croshaw (set by Sidney Soria)
Set 2 · TARLET 21-21 NO TEX · NO TEX 85% → 89%
06
Jahniya JacksonKill+2.9%
Kill by Jahniya Jackson (set by Sidney Soria)
Set 2 · TARLET 22-23 NO TEX · NO TEX 89% → 92%
07
Reagan BedellAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Reagan Bedell
Set 2 · TARLET 20-19 NO TEX · TARLET 11% → 13%
08
LaNeah LaraKill+2.5%
Kill by LaNeah Lara (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 2 · TARLET 22-22 NO TEX · TARLET 8% → 11%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Tarleton St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Onita DavisMB	3	9	3	19	.316	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	10.5
3LaNeah LaraOH	3	7	4	24	.125	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
14Jacqui McClainOH	3	4	2	16	.125	0	1	2	4	4	1	0.5	5.5
9Madison FrankMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
23Alyssa DinhMB	3	0	1	7	-.143	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	2
5Alexis MasseyS	3	0	0	0	–	11	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
21Madison Natori Rice-LocketOH	3	2	4	18	-.111	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
19Alexa EarleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0
13Kingsley MinusS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
8Leddy Rae GuinnDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	9	1	0	0	0
2Leila ParaoanOH	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	17	93	.086	22	2	4	26	6	14	7	51

North Texashome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Jahniya JacksonOH	3	17	2	29	.517	0	1	0	4	0	3	1.5	19.5
15Lillian CroshawOH	3	9	1	15	.533	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	10
20Loredana FouonjiMB	3	5	0	7	.714	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
6Reagan BedellOH	3	5	9	22	-.182	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Addison AchillesMB	3	2	1	5	.200	0	1	3	2	0	4	2	5
23Sidney SoriaS	3	0	0	0	–	21	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
19Jocelyn JourdanOH	3	7	2	13	.385	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Dakota MitchellL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	2
7Olivia BranumS	3	0	0	0	–	20	2	1	10	0	0	0	2
5Alessandra RomoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	0	17	0	0	0	0
9Ryann VikMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Alexa HayesOPP	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
16Reese WattersOPP	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Kennedy CooperMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Alyssa YoungL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Madeline SmithOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	16	98	.327	47	6	6	46	2	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 TARLET · NO TEX 7

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 TARLETNO TEX 7

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 TARLETNO TEX 3

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 TARLETNO TEX 4

Bars above the line = North Texas leads, below = Tarleton St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Tarleton St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	30%3/10
2	41%7/17	42%5/12
3	70%7/10	22%2/9
4	67%6/9	13%1/8
5	60%6/10	0%0/6
6	31%5/16	25%2/8
All	52%38/73	25%13/53

North Texas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	67%12/18
2	78%7/9	50%7/14
3	78%7/9	53%8/15
4	100%6/6	25%2/8
5	86%6/7	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	25%2/8
All	75%40/53	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	TARLET-NO TEX	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+1.1
2	1-1	NO TEX	TARLET	Serve err	NO TEX server		+1.2
3	1-2	TARLET	NO TEX×3	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+1.1
4	1-3	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+1.4
5	1-4	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+1.2
6	2-4	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+1.0
7	3-4	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+1.4
8	3-5	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+1.1
9	3-6	NO TEX	NO TEX	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Leddy Rae Guinn	+1.3
10	4-6	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+1.0
11	4-7	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Alessandra Romo	+1.0
12	5-7	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+1.0
13	5-8	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+1.0
14	6-8	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+1.0
15	6-9	TARLET	NO TEX×7	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Alessandra Romo	+1.1
16	6-10	NO TEX	NO TEX×7	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Sidney Soria	+1.2
17	6-11	NO TEX	NO TEX×7	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Addison Achilles, Jahniya Jackson	+1.0
18	6-12	NO TEX	NO TEX×7	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.7
19	6-13	NO TEX	NO TEX×7	Attack err	Alyssa Dinh		+0.5
20	6-14	NO TEX	NO TEX×7	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Jacqui McClain	+0.4
21	6-15	NO TEX	NO TEX×7	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Addison Achilles, Jahniya Jackson	+0.2
22	7-15	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui McClain	set Kingsley Minus	+0.1
23	8-15	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced Dakota Mitchell	+0.3
24	8-16	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+0.3
25	8-17	NO TEX	NO TEX	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Jacqui McClain	+0.2
26	9-17	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
27	9-18	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
28	10-18	NO TEX	TARLET	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.1
29	10-19	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+0.1
30	11-19	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+0.1
31	11-20	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+0.1
32	12-20	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Madison Frank	+0.1
33	12-21	TARLET	NO TEX×3	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+0.1
34	12-22	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+0.0
35	12-23	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Madison Frank		+0.0
36	13-23	NO TEX	TARLET	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.0
37	14-23	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+0.0
38	14-24	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
39	14-25	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui McClain	set Alyssa Dinh	+1.0
2	2-0	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced Lillian Croshaw	+1.3
3	2-1	TARLET	NO TEX	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.9
4	2-2	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Alessandra Romo	+1.2
5	3-2	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Lillian Croshaw		+1.0
6	4-2	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson	blk Onita Davis, Madison Frank	+1.4
7	4-3	TARLET	NO TEX	Serve err	TARLET server		+1.0
8	5-3	NO TEX	TARLET	Serve err	NO TEX server		+1.1
9	6-3	TARLET	TARLET	Bad set	Sidney Soria		+1.5
10	6-4	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+1.0
11	6-5	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.4
12	7-5	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+1.2
13	7-6	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.1
14	8-6	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+1.2
15	8-7	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+1.1
16	9-7	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Jocelyn Jourdan	blk Alyssa Dinh, Jacqui McClain	+1.3
17	10-7	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+1.7
18	10-8	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+1.1
19	10-9	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+1.5
20	11-9	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell	blk Onita Davis, Alyssa Dinh	+1.4
21	11-10	TARLET	NO TEX	Serve err	TARLET server		+1.2
22	11-11	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Addison Achilles, Jahniya Jackson	+1.6
23	12-11	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+1.4
24	12-12	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Sidney Soria	+1.3
25	12-13	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+1.6
26	13-13	NO TEX	TARLET	Serve err	NO TEX server		+1.3
27	13-14	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Sidney Soria	+1.3
28	14-14	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+1.4
29	14-15	TARLET	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Jacqui McClain	blk Jocelyn Jourdan, Loredana Fouonji	+1.3
30	14-16	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Madison Frank		+1.6
31	14-17	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Reagan Bedell, Loredana Fouonji	+1.4
32	15-17	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+1.0
33	16-17	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+1.6
34	16-18	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.4
35	17-18	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Jocelyn Jourdan		+1.3
36	17-19	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.5
37	18-19	NO TEX	TARLET×4	Attack err	Reagan Bedell	blk Onita Davis, Alyssa Dinh	+1.4
38	19-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Bad set	Sidney Soria		+2.3
39	20-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+2.8
40	21-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+3.1
41	21-20	TARLET	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Onita Davis		+1.9
42	21-21	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+3.0
43	21-22	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Jacqui McClain	+3.2
44	22-22	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+2.5
45	22-23	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+2.9
46	22-24	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Onita Davis		+3.3
47	23-24	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+1.5
48	23-25	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+3.2
Set 3
1	0-1	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Alessandra Romo	+0.4
2	1-1	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Addison Achilles	blk Alyssa Dinh, LaNeah Lara	+0.5
3	2-1	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.6
4	2-2	TARLET	NO TEX×4	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+0.5
5	2-3	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Jacqui McClain	+0.6
6	2-4	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Alexa Earle	+0.5
7	2-5	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Dakota Mitchell	+0.5
8	3-5	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui McClain	set Alexis Massey	+0.4
9	3-6	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+0.4
10	4-6	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.4
11	4-7	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+0.4
12	4-8	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+0.4
13	5-8	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui McClain	set Addison Achilles	+0.3
14	5-9	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+0.3
15	6-9	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+0.3
16	6-10	TARLET	NO TEX×4	Serve err	TARLET server		+0.3
17	6-11	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Attack err	LaNeah Lara	blk Lillian Croshaw, Loredana Fouonji	+0.4
18	6-12	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+0.3
19	6-13	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Dakota Mitchell	+0.2
20	7-13	NO TEX	TARLET	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.1
21	7-14	TARLET	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+0.2
22	7-15	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
23	7-16	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	LaNeah Lara	blk Addison Achilles, Lillian Croshaw	+0.1
24	8-16	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.0
25	8-17	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
26	8-18	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Jacqui McClain		+0.0
27	9-18	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.0
28	9-19	TARLET	NO TEX	Attack err	Leila Paraoan		+0.0
29	10-19	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.0
30	10-20	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Olivia Branum	+0.0
31	10-21	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes		+0.0
32	11-21	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+0.0
33	11-22	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Olivia Branum	+0.0
34	12-22	NO TEX	TARLET	Attack err	Reagan Bedell	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Madison Frank	+0.0
35	12-23	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
36	12-24	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+0.0
37	13-24	NO TEX	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+0.0
38	14-24	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Reese Watters		+0.0
39	14-25	TARLET	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Tarleton St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.