Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on FloSports

Stony Brook def. UNCW 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Stony Brook 72.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Stony Brook beat visiting UNCW 3-2 (25-22, 25-20, 20-25, 23-25, 16-14) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Ella Sanders led Stony Brook with 15 kills; UNCW's Sam Vanda had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set12345Sets
UNCW22202525142
STONY25252023163

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Ella Sanders, and Stony Brook needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Stony Brook's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Stony Brook went in as RallyIQ's 72% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · UNCW 1–0 Stony Brook

    Stony Brook scored 5 straight to turn a 0–1 deficit into a 5–1 lead.

    Stony Brook 52% → 87%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · UNCW 9–12 Stony Brook

    UNCW scored 3 straight to erase a 9–12 deficit and tie it at 12.

    Stony Brook 90% → 58%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · UNCW 13–13 Stony Brook

    Stony Brook closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 16–14 and win the match 3–2.

    Stony Brook 58% → >99%

Stony Brook above 50UNCW belowMax swing 22.8%

UNCWStony Brook

Sideout %
UNCW 53.7·Stony Brook 55.1
Break %
UNCW 44.9·Stony Brook 46.3
Hitting
UNCW .151·Stony Brook .174
Longest run
UNCW 6·Stony Brook 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Stony Brook above 50 · UNCW below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+22.8% STONYrally 215 · set 5

Biggest swing: 22.8% to Stony Brook — set 5, UNCW 14-16 STONY. Bad set by Gaby Zovko. STONY win probability 77% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UNCW 29.1%70.9% STONY

UNCW wins

3-0
5.5%
3-1
10.2%
3-2
13.5%

Stony Brook wins

3-0
23.9%
3-1
27.2%
3-2
19.8%
UNCW break %
42.0% vs this opp
STONY break %
46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Gaby ZovkoBad set+22.8%

    Bad set by Gaby Zovko

    Set 5 · UNCW 14-16 STONY · STONY 77% → 100%

  2. 02
    Taryn SuService error+19.6%

    Service error by Taryn Su

    Set 5 · UNCW 14-14 STONY · UNCW 23% → 42%

  3. 03
    Mercedes MottonKill+19.6%

    Kill by Mercedes Motton (set by Taryn Su)

    Set 5 · UNCW 14-15 STONY · STONY 58% → 77%

  4. 04
    Ella SandersKill+19.6%

    Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Rayanne Wheat)

    Set 5 · UNCW 13-14 STONY · STONY 58% → 77%

  5. 05
    Elaina MurphyAce+16.4%

    Ace by Elaina Murphy on Ella Sanders

    Set 5 · UNCW 12-12 STONY · UNCW 26% → 42%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ayanna Pierre Louis (set by Rayanne Wheat)

    Set 5 · UNCW 12-13 STONY · STONY 58% → 73%

  7. 07
    Sam VandaKill+15.2%

    Kill by Sam Vanda (set by Annie Harney)

    Set 5 · UNCW 13-13 STONY · UNCW 27% → 42%

  8. 08
    Ayanna Pierre LouisAttack error+11.0%

    Attack error by Ayanna Pierre Louis

    Set 5 · UNCW 11-12 STONY · UNCW 15% → 26%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UNCWaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5181459.068142130010.522.5
5171151.11814416400021
58218.3331114004211
57214.3574800110052.59.5
57217.294000201229
2127-.143010400002
5000–6102230001
4000–001820000
35116.250000200005
2000–000300000
1123-.333000000001
Team totals6436185.1515711885131127106
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515353.22604119712221
59328.21400061031.510.5
58627.07400010052.510.5
52317-.0591314026510
53312.000100000847
5102.50018011300001
510120.4500002004212
5115.0001401210005
5001.0004221410002
5002.0002301600000
Team totals4920167.17448136771132817109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UNCW vs Stony Brook

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UNCW · STONY 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 5 UNCWSTONY 6

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 UNCWSTONY 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 UNCWSTONY 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 6 UNCWSTONY 4

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 3 UNCWSTONY 5

Bars above the line = Stony Brook leads, below = UNCW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UNCW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%13/26
42%8/19
2
65%11/17
45%9/20
3
60%9/15
48%10/21
4
53%9/17
44%7/16
5
50%8/16
50%9/18
6
47%8/17
38%5/13
All
54%58/108
45%48/107

Stony Brook

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%12/22
41%7/17
2
46%11/24
56%15/27
3
69%11/16
15%2/13
4
47%9/19
44%7/16
5
67%8/12
62%13/21
6
57%8/14
43%6/14
All
55%59/107
46%50/108

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

215 rallies

#UNCW-STONYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STONYSTONYAttack errElaina Murphy+2.0
20-2STONYSTONYBlockedSam Vandablk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Mopelola Ojo+1.9
31-2STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.5
41-3UNCWSTONY×6KillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+1.5
51-4STONYSTONY×6Attack errSam Vanda+1.7
61-5STONYSTONY×6Attack errSam Vanda+1.6
71-6STONYSTONY×6AceStony Brookaced Elaina Murphy+1.3
81-7STONYSTONY×6KillAvari Amstutzset Rayanne Wheat+1.1
91-8STONYSTONY×6Bad setGaby Zovko+0.9
102-8STONYUNCW×5KillSam Vandaset Courtney Graham+0.6
113-8UNCWUNCW×5KillGaby Zovkoset Rayanne Wheat+1.0
124-8UNCWUNCW×5AceNadia Wasilewskiaced Zayda Fuertez+1.2
135-8UNCWUNCW×5Attack errAyanna Pierre Louis+1.5
146-8UNCWUNCW×5Attack errAyanna Pierre Louis+1.8
156-9UNCWSTONYKillRayanne Wheatset Zayda Fuertez+1.5
167-9STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Zayda Fuertez+1.5
177-10UNCWSTONY×3KillAvari Amstutzset Damisi Osibodu+1.6
187-11STONYSTONY×3KillAvari Amstutzset Taryn Su+1.8
197-12STONYSTONY×3Attack errElaina Murphy+1.5
208-12STONYUNCW×4KillElaina Murphyset Annie Harney+1.0
219-12UNCWUNCW×4KillLauren Lewisset Taryn Su+1.6
2210-12UNCWUNCW×4AceCourtney Grahamaced Ella Sanders+2.0
2311-12UNCWUNCW×4KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.4
2411-13UNCWSTONYKillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+2.0
2512-13STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.0
2613-13UNCWUNCWAttack errDamisi Osibodu+2.9
2713-14UNCWSTONY×4KillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+2.3
2813-15STONYSTONY×4BlockedNadia Wasilewskiblk Mercedes Motton, Mopelola Ojo+2.8
2913-16STONYSTONY×4Attack errSam Vanda+2.4
3013-17STONYSTONY×4AceStony Brook+2.0
3114-17STONYUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.3
3215-17UNCWUNCWAceElaina Murphy+2.2
3315-18UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+2.1
3415-19STONYSTONYAttack errSam Vanda+2.1
3516-19STONYUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.3
3616-20UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Rayanne Wheat+1.7
3717-20STONYUNCWServe errElla Sanders+1.2
3817-21UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Rayanne Wheat+1.7
3917-22STONYSTONYAttack errCourtney Graham+1.3
4018-22STONYUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.6
4119-22UNCWUNCW×4Bad setRayanne Wheat+1.3
4220-22UNCWUNCW×4Attack errDamisi Osibodu+2.2
4321-22UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+3.6
4421-23UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+3.9
4522-23STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.9
4622-24UNCWSTONYKillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+4.5
4722-25STONYSTONYAceStony Brookaced Elaina Murphy+3.2
Set 2
11-0UNCWUNCWAceSam Vandaaced Ella Sanders+1.7
21-1UNCWSTONYKillMopelola Ojoset Rayanne Wheat+1.3
32-1STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.4
42-2UNCWSTONYBlockedNadia Wasilewskiblk Mopelola Ojo, Avari Amstutz+1.3
53-2STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.4
64-2UNCWUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.9
74-3UNCWSTONYKillAvari Amstutzset Rayanne Wheat+1.4
85-3STONYUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.5
95-4UNCWSTONYBlockedElaina Murphyblk Damisi Osibodu+1.4
105-5STONYSTONYKillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+1.8
116-5STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.5
126-6UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+1.5
136-7STONYSTONYAceStony Brookaced Morgan Esmie+1.9
147-7STONYUNCW×3Serve errDamisi Osibodu+1.5
158-7UNCWUNCW×3KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.1
169-7UNCWUNCW×3KillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+2.2
179-8UNCWSTONYKillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+1.6
1810-8STONYUNCWServe errRayanne Wheat+1.8
1910-9UNCWSTONYBad setGaby Zovko+1.6
2011-9STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.8
2111-10UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+1.7
2212-10STONYUNCWServe errZayda Fuertez+1.9
2312-11UNCWSTONY×3KillAvari Amstutzset Zayda Fuertez+1.7
2412-12STONYSTONY×3KillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+2.3
2512-13STONYSTONY×3Attack errSam Vanda+2.3
2613-13STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.9
2713-14UNCWSTONYServe errUNCW+1.9
2814-14STONYUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.9
2915-14UNCWUNCWBlockedCarey-Jean Blockblk Lauren Lewis+2.7
3015-15UNCWSTONYAttack errSam Vanda+2.0
3116-15STONYUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+2.3
3216-16UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+2.2
3316-17STONYSTONYBlockedSam Vandablk Ella Sanders, Mopelola Ojo+2.8
3417-17STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.3
3517-18UNCWSTONY×5Attack errLauren Lewis+2.3
3617-19STONYSTONY×5AceStony Brook+2.8
3717-20STONYSTONY×5Attack errElaina Murphy+2.4
3817-21STONYSTONY×5BlockedMeredith Keeferblk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Mopelola Ojo+1.8
3917-22STONYSTONY×5AceStony Brookaced Annie Harney+1.1
4018-22STONYUNCWKillMeredith Keeferset Annie Harney+0.5
4118-23UNCWSTONYKillMopelola Ojoset Rayanne Wheat+0.7
4219-23STONYUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+0.3
4320-23UNCWUNCWAttack errAvari Amstutz+0.8
4420-24UNCWSTONYKillDamisi Osiboduset Rayanne Wheat+1.2
4520-25STONYSTONYAttack errMeredith Keefer+0.4
Set 3
11-0STONYUNCW×4BlockedElla Sandersblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+0.7
22-0UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.0
33-0UNCWUNCW×4AceElaina Murphyaced Avari Amstutz+1.0
44-0UNCWUNCW×4Attack errAyanna Pierre Louis+1.0
54-1UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Zayda Fuertez+0.7
65-1STONYUNCW×4BlockedAvari Amstutzblk Courtney Graham, Gaby Zovko+0.8
76-1UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.0
87-1UNCWUNCW×4KillGaby Zovkoset Sam Vanda+0.9
98-1UNCWUNCW×4KillGaby Zovkoset Rayanne Wheat+0.8
108-2UNCWSTONYServe errUNCW+0.5
119-2STONYUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Annie Harney+0.6
129-3UNCWSTONYAttack errSam Vanda+0.5
1310-3STONYUNCW×3KillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+0.6
1411-3UNCWUNCW×3AceSam Vandaaced Ella Sanders+0.7
1512-3UNCWUNCW×3Serve errSam Vanda+0.5
1612-4UNCWSTONY×4Serve errSam Vanda+0.3
1712-5STONYSTONY×4BlockedElaina Murphyblk Damisi Osibodu, Mercedes Motton+0.5
1812-6STONYSTONY×4AceStony Brook+0.6
1912-7STONYSTONY×4BlockedLilly Sullivanblk Ella Sanders+0.7
2013-7STONYUNCWAttack errElla Sanders+0.7
2113-8UNCWSTONYBlockedElaina Murphyblk Damisi Osibodu+0.5
2214-8STONYUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+0.7
2315-8UNCWUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Taryn Su+0.8
2415-9UNCWSTONYServe errUNCW+0.4
2516-9STONYUNCWBlockedElla Sandersblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+0.6
2616-10UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+0.4
2717-10STONYUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+0.6
2818-10UNCWUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.5
2918-11UNCWSTONYKillAvari Amstutzset Rayanne Wheat+0.2
3019-11STONYUNCWServe errZayda Fuertez+0.4
3119-12UNCWSTONYAttack errSam Vanda+0.2
3220-12STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.3
3321-12UNCWUNCWBad setTaryn Su+0.2
3421-13UNCWSTONY×4BlockedElaina Murphyblk Mercedes Motton, Damisi Osibodu+0.1
3521-14STONYSTONY×4KillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+0.1
3621-15STONYSTONY×4KillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+0.2
3721-16STONYSTONY×4AceStony Brookaced Annie Harney+0.4
3822-16STONYUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+0.5
3922-17UNCWSTONY×3KillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+0.2
4022-18STONYSTONY×3BlockedCourtney Grahamblk Ella Sanders, Mopelola Ojo+0.5
4122-19STONYSTONY×3AceStony Brookaced Elaina Murphy+0.8
4223-19STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.1
4323-20UNCWSTONYKillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+0.5
4424-20STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.0
4525-20UNCWUNCWBad setRayanne Wheat+0.4
Set 4
11-0UNCWUNCWBlockedAyanna Pierre Louisblk Sam Vanda, Courtney Graham+2.5
21-1UNCWSTONYServe errUNCW+1.9
31-2STONYSTONYAceStony Brookaced Morgan Esmie+2.4
42-2STONYUNCW×6KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+2.0
53-2UNCWUNCW×6KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.7
64-2UNCWUNCW×6KillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+2.8
75-2UNCWUNCW×6BlockedMopelola Ojoblk Gaby Zovko, Lauren Lewis+2.9
86-2UNCWUNCW×6BlockedMopelola Ojoblk Gaby Zovko, Lauren Lewis+2.8
97-2UNCWUNCW×6KillGaby Zovkoset Ayanna Pierre Louis+2.7
107-3UNCWSTONYBlockedSam Vandablk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Mopelola Ojo+1.8
118-3STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.2
128-4UNCWSTONYKillAvari Amstutzset Rayanne Wheat+1.8
139-4STONYUNCW×3Bad setTaryn Su+2.2
1410-4UNCWUNCW×3AceSam Vandaaced Ella Sanders+2.5
1511-4UNCWUNCW×3KillLilly Sullivanset Annie Harney+2.2
1611-5UNCWSTONY×3KillAvari Amstutzset Taryn Su+1.3
1711-6STONYSTONY×3KillCarey-Jean Blockset Taryn Su+2.0
1811-7STONYSTONY×3KillMercedes Mottonset Zayda Fuertez+2.3
1912-7STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.3
2012-8UNCWSTONYKillDamisi Osiboduset Taryn Su+1.8
2113-8STONYUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+2.3
2214-8UNCWUNCWAttack errMopelola Ojo+2.5
2314-9UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+1.5
2415-9STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.0
2515-10UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Mopelola Ojo+1.4
2615-11STONYSTONYAttack errSam Vanda+2.3
2716-11STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.4
2816-12UNCWSTONYAttack errLauren Lewis+1.8
2916-13STONYSTONYAttack errSam Vanda+2.8
3017-13STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.9
3117-14UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+2.2
3217-15STONYSTONYKillAvari Amstutzset Taryn Su+3.4
3318-15STONYUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+3.4
3418-16UNCWSTONYServe errUNCW+2.7
3518-17STONYSTONYAceStony Brookaced Annie Harney+4.2
3619-17STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+4.0
3720-17UNCWUNCWAttack errDamisi Osibodu+4.8
3820-18UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+2.8
3921-18STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+4.0
4022-18UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.9
4122-19UNCWSTONY×4KillMopelola Ojoset Annie Harney+1.8
4222-20STONYSTONY×4Attack errGaby Zovko+3.5
4322-21STONYSTONY×4BlockedElaina Murphyblk Mopelola Ojo, Ayanna Pierre Louis+5.2
4422-22STONYSTONY×4Attack errElaina Murphy+6.9
4523-22STONYUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+6.8
4624-22UNCWUNCWAceElaina Murphyaced Ella Sanders+8.8
4724-23UNCWSTONYServe errElaina Murphy+4.0
4825-23STONYUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Annie Harney+8.7
Set 5
11-0UNCWUNCWAttack errAvari Amstutz+8.5
21-1UNCWSTONY×5Serve errUNCW+6.4
31-2STONYSTONY×5AceStony Brook+8.1
41-3STONYSTONY×5AceStony Brookaced Elaina Murphy+7.7
51-4STONYSTONY×5BlockedSam Vandablk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Damisi Osibodu+6.9
61-5STONYSTONY×5BlockedGaby Zovkoblk Damisi Osibodu, Avari Amstutz+5.8
72-5STONYUNCWAttack errAyanna Pierre Louis+3.9
82-6UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+4.6
93-6STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.9
103-7UNCWSTONYBlockedElaina Murphyblk Damisi Osibodu, Avari Amstutz+4.7
114-7STONYUNCW×3KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+3.9
125-7UNCWUNCW×3Attack errMercedes Motton+6.7
136-7UNCWUNCW×3AceSam Vandaaced Carey-Jean Block+8.7
146-8UNCWSTONY×3BlockedElaina Murphyblk Damisi Osibodu, Mercedes Motton+7.6
156-9STONYSTONY×3KillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+8.4
166-10STONYSTONY×3KillElla Sandersset Taryn Su+6.4
177-10STONYUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.7
188-10UNCWUNCWAceAnnie Harneyaced Ella Sanders+7.0
198-11UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Carey-Jean Block+7.2
209-11STONYUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Elaina Murphy+5.5
219-12UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Rayanne Wheat+7.5
2210-12STONYUNCW×3KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+5.3
2311-12UNCWUNCW×3Attack errAyanna Pierre Louis+11.0
2412-12UNCWUNCW×3AceElaina Murphyaced Ella Sanders+16.4
2512-13UNCWSTONYKillAyanna Pierre Louisset Rayanne Wheat+15.3
2613-13STONYUNCWKillSam Vandaset Annie Harney+15.2
2713-14UNCWSTONYKillElla Sandersset Rayanne Wheat+19.6
2814-14STONYUNCWServe errTaryn Su+19.6
2914-15UNCWSTONYKillMercedes Mottonset Taryn Su+19.6
3014-16STONYSTONYBad setGaby Zovko+22.8

Score shown after each rally, UNCW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).