Final · 4 setsTue, Nov 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Bradley def. Illinois St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois St. 52.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 3, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Bradley beat visiting Illinois St. 3-1 (25-13, 25-20, 15-25, 26-24) on Tue, Nov 3, 2026. Cherlin Antonio led Bradley with 13 kills; Illinois St.'s Ruth Ziegler had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Nov 3

Set1234Sets
ILL ST132025241
BRAD252515263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Bradley held off Illinois St.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Bradley's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had Illinois St. at 52% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Illinois St. 3–1 Bradley

    5 straight Bradley points turned a 1–3 deficit into a 6–3 lead.

    Bradley 67% → 84%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Illinois St. 4–6 Bradley

    6 straight Bradley points stretched a 6–4 lead to 12–4.

    Bradley 82% → 97%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Illinois St. 20–24 Bradley

    Down 20–24, Illinois St. scored 4 straight to tie it at 24.

    Bradley 99% → 76%

Bradley above 50Illinois St. belowMax swing 13.9%

Illinois St.Bradley

Sideout %
Illinois St. 53.3·Bradley 59.0
Break %
Illinois St. 41.0·Bradley 46.7
Hitting
Illinois St. .277·Bradley .301
Longest run
Illinois St. 4·Bradley 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Bradley above 50 · Illinois St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+13.9% BRADrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 13.9% to Bradley — set 4, ILL ST 24-26 BRAD. Kill by Cherlin Antonio (set by Eirini Bitsaktsi). BRAD win probability 86% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ILL ST 48.3%51.7% BRAD

Illinois St. wins

3-0
11.8%
3-1
18.0%
3-2
18.5%

Bradley wins

3-0
13.2%
3-1
19.5%
3-2
19.0%
ILL ST break %
42.4% vs this opp
BRAD break %
42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Cherlin AntonioKill+13.9%

    Kill by Cherlin Antonio (set by Eirini Bitsaktsi)

    Set 4 · ILL ST 24-26 BRAD · BRAD 86% → 100%

  2. 02
    Abby ReckAce+13.8%

    Ace by Abby Reck on Gracie Furlong

    Set 4 · ILL ST 24-24 BRAD · ILL ST 10% → 24%

  3. 03
    Gracie FurlongKill+10.0%

    Kill by Gracie Furlong (set by Maria Drapp)

    Set 4 · ILL ST 24-25 BRAD · BRAD 76% → 86%

  4. 04
    Abby ReckAce+5.8%

    Ace by Abby Reck on Eirini Bitsaktsi

    Set 4 · ILL ST 23-24 BRAD · ILL ST 4% → 10%

  5. 05

    Ace by Eirini Bitsaktsi

    Set 4 · ILL ST 3-5 BRAD · BRAD 77% → 81%

  6. 06
    Chloe ParkerKill+3.7%

    Kill by Chloe Parker (set by Maria Drapp)

    Set 4 · ILL ST 3-4 BRAD · BRAD 73% → 77%

  7. 07
    Emilija ArsicAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Emilija Arsic

    Set 4 · ILL ST 3-6 BRAD · BRAD 81% → 84%

  8. 08
    Jillian FerrillAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Jillian Ferrill

    Set 4 · ILL ST 3-3 BRAD · BRAD 70% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415434.3240003000015
414733.2121128000015
45112.333142200009
4519.444000000005
41011.00027001000001
4000–2001430000
412135.3140002000012
47423.130000000007
4001.0002131320001
4000–2404900000
1000–000110000
Team totals5918148.2775761162800082
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411134.294111162010.512.5
411121.47600010031.512.5
47431.09700030010.57.5
45010.50042201200007
4518.500000000216
4000–000600000
413432.28100010031.514.5
4000–4301740003
4000–111300001
4000–012100001
Team totals5211136.3014884606010591

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Illinois St. vs Bradley

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 ILL ST · BRAD 6

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 ILL STBRAD 5

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 ILL STBRAD 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 4 ILL STBRAD 2

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 4 ILL STBRAD 6

Bars above the line = Bradley leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%10/14
25%3/12
2
53%8/15
50%9/18
3
47%8/17
38%5/13
4
36%8/22
53%9/17
5
64%7/11
33%4/12
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
53%48/90
41%34/83

Bradley

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
27%3/11
2
53%8/15
40%6/15
3
62%8/13
58%11/19
4
53%8/15
56%10/18
5
67%8/12
38%5/13
6
70%7/10
50%7/14
All
59%49/83
47%42/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#ILL ST-BRADSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ILL STBRADBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Dakota Elliott, Gracie Furlong+1.8
20-2BRADBRADAceMaria Drappaced Peyton Turner+2.5
31-2BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.8
42-2ILL STILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.6
52-3ILL STBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.9
62-4BRADBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.6
73-4BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.8
84-4ILL STILL STAttack errChloe Parker+2.7
94-5ILL STBRADServe errIllinois St.+2.0
105-5BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.0
115-6ILL STBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.1
125-7BRADBRAD×3Bad setElla Kohnen+2.8
135-8BRADBRAD×3KillMaria Drappset Samantha Bunch+2.7
146-8BRADILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+1.8
157-8ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+2.8
167-9ILL STBRAD×5Serve errIllinois St.+2.2
177-10BRADBRAD×5KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.9
187-11BRADBRAD×5KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+2.6
197-12BRADBRAD×5Bad setEmilija Arsic+2.3
207-13BRADBRAD×5KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.9
218-13BRADILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.0
228-14ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+1.4
238-15BRADBRADAttack errJillian Gregory+1.4
249-15BRADILL STServe errHayden Booth+0.7
259-16ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.0
2610-16BRADILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.7
2710-17ILL STBRAD×3Serve errIllinois St.+0.9
2810-18BRADBRAD×3Attack errEmilija Arsic+0.8
2910-19BRADBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonio+0.5
3011-19BRADILL STServe errGracie Furlong+0.2
3111-20ILL STBRADKillDakota Elliottset Maria Drapp+0.3
3211-21BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+0.2
3312-21BRADILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen·
3412-22ILL STBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+0.1
3512-23BRADBRAD×3AceAva Patchettaced Samantha Bunch·
3612-24BRADBRAD×3Attack errAddisyn Pohl·
3713-24BRADILL STServe errAva Patchett·
3813-25ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp·
Set 2
11-0BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.9
21-1ILL STBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.9
31-2BRADBRAD×3AceGracie Furlongaced Samantha Bunch+2.6
41-3BRADBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.6
52-3BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.9
63-3ILL STILL STAttack errChloe Parker+2.7
73-4ILL STBRAD×3KillDakota Elliottset Maria Drapp+2.0
83-5BRADBRAD×3AceEirini Bitsaktsi+2.8
93-6BRADBRAD×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+2.7
104-6BRADILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.8
115-6ILL STILL ST×3Bad setMaria Drapp+2.7
126-6ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.9
136-7ILL STBRAD×4Serve errIllinois St.+2.2
146-8BRADBRAD×4BlockedEmilija Arsicblk Mairen Mannon, Cherlin Antonio+3.0
156-9BRADBRAD×4KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.9
166-10BRADBRAD×4Attack errJillian Ferrill+2.6
177-10BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+1.7
187-11ILL STBRADServe errIllinois St.+2.0
198-11BRADILL STAttack errMairen Mannon+1.7
208-12ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.0
219-12BRADILL STServe errHayden Booth+1.7
229-13ILL STBRADKillDakota Elliottset Maria Drapp+2.0
239-14BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.4
2410-14BRADILL STAttack errChloe Parker+1.4
2510-15ILL STBRADAttack errEmilija Arsic+1.7
2610-16BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+1.9
2711-16BRADILL ST×3Attack errCherlin Antonio+1.0
2812-16ILL STILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Abby Reck+1.8
2913-16ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Peyton Turner+2.4
3013-17ILL STBRAD×3Serve errIllinois St.+2.2
3113-18BRADBRAD×3BlockedRuth Zieglerblk Mairen Mannon, Cherlin Antonio+2.4
3213-19BRADBRAD×3AceEirini Bitsaktsiaced Peyton Turner+1.7
3314-19BRADILL STAttack errCherlin Antonio+0.8
3415-19ILL STILL STAttack errCherlin Antonio+1.6
3515-20ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+1.7
3615-21BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Eirini Bitsaktsi+1.4
3716-21BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+0.5
3816-22ILL STBRADKillMaria Drappset Gracie Furlong+0.9
3917-22BRADILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+0.4
4018-22ILL STILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+1.0
4118-23ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.3
4218-24BRADBRADAttack errAbby Reck+0.7
4319-24BRADILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.1
4420-24ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.3
4520-25ILL STBRADKillDakota Elliottset Maria Drapp+0.6
Set 3
11-0ILL STILL STAceSamantha Bunchaced Eirini Bitsaktsi+1.8
22-0ILL STILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+1.8
32-1ILL STBRADServe errSamantha Bunch+1.2
42-2BRADBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.8
53-2BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.4
63-3ILL STBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.4
74-3BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.4
84-4ILL STBRADBlockedEmilija Arsicblk Dakota Elliott, Chloe Parker+1.4
95-4BRADILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+1.4
106-4ILL STILL ST×3Attack errChloe Parker+1.9
117-4ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.8
127-5ILL STBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.2
138-5BRADILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.4
148-6ILL STBRADKillMaria Drappset Eirini Bitsaktsi+1.3
159-6BRADILL STAttack errGracie Furlong+1.4
1610-6ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.8
1710-7ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+1.1
1811-7BRADILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.3
1911-8ILL STBRADServe errIllinois St.+1.1
2012-8BRADILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.3
2113-8ILL STILL ST×3AceAbby Reckaced Eirini Bitsaktsi+1.5
2214-8ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.2
2314-9ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+0.7
2415-9BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.9
2515-10ILL STBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+0.7
2616-10BRADILL ST×4KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+0.9
2717-10ILL STILL ST×4KillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+0.9
2818-10ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.5
2919-10ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Gregory+0.3
3019-11ILL STBRADAttack errJillian Ferrill+0.1
3119-12BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+0.3
3220-12BRADILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+0.3
3321-12ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.2
3421-13ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+0.1
3522-13BRADILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.1
3623-13ILL STILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs·
3723-14ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp·
3824-14BRADILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs·
3924-15ILL STBRADKillMaria Drappset Ava Patchett·
4025-15BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs·
Set 4
11-0BRADILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+2.5
21-1ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.5
32-1BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.5
43-1ILL STILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+3.4
53-2ILL STBRAD×5Serve errIllinois St.+2.4
63-3BRADBRAD×5Attack errJillian Ferrill+3.5
73-4BRADBRAD×5KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+3.7
83-5BRADBRAD×5AceEirini Bitsaktsi+3.7
93-6BRADBRAD×5Attack errEmilija Arsic+3.6
104-6BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.4
114-7ILL STBRAD×6KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+2.6
124-8BRADBRAD×6KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+3.4
134-9BRADBRAD×6KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+3.0
144-10BRADBRAD×6KillMaria Drappset Ella Kohnen+2.6
154-11BRADBRAD×6BlockedJillian Ferrillblk Cherlin Antonio, Mairen Mannon+2.1
164-12BRADBRAD×6KillCherlin Antonioset Eirini Bitsaktsi+1.6
175-12BRADILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.8
186-12ILL STILL STServe errIllinois St.+1.5
196-13ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+1.5
207-13BRADILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Peyton Turner+1.1
217-14ILL STBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.4
227-15BRADBRAD×3AceHayden Boothaced Madison Smith+1.4
237-16BRADBRAD×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+0.9
248-16BRADILL STKillElla Craggsset Emilija Arsic+0.4
258-17ILL STBRADAttack errEmilija Arsic+0.6
268-18BRADBRADAceMaria Drappaced Peyton Turner+0.5
279-18BRADILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.2
2810-18ILL STILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.4
2911-18ILL STILL ST×4Attack errDakota Elliott+0.7
3012-18ILL STILL ST×4AceAbby Reckaced Eirini Bitsaktsi+1.0
3112-19ILL STBRADAttack errEmilija Arsic+1.1
3213-19BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.6
3313-20ILL STBRADServe errIllinois St.+1.0
3414-20BRADILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+0.5
3515-20ILL STILL STAceEmilija Arsicaced Gracie Furlong+1.2
3615-21ILL STBRADServe errEmilija Arsic+1.4
3716-21BRADILL STAttack errCherlin Antonio+0.7
3817-21ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregory+1.7
3917-22ILL STBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+2.0
4018-22BRADILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.0
4119-22ILL STILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+2.4
4219-23ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.9
4320-23BRADILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.3
4420-24ILL STBRADKillDakota Elliottset Maria Drapp+2.6
4521-24BRADILL ST×4KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.8
4622-24ILL STILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+2.5
4723-24ILL STILL ST×4AceAbby Reckaced Eirini Bitsaktsi+5.8
4824-24ILL STILL ST×4AceAbby Reckaced Gracie Furlong+13.8
4924-25ILL STBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+10.0
5024-26BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Eirini Bitsaktsi+13.9

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).