Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 22, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Northern Colo. def. Northern Ariz. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Colo. 66.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Colo. beat visiting Northern Ariz. 3-1 (25-22, 25-14, 22-25, 25-23) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. Northern Colo.'s Summer Snead led with 19 kills, and Bella LePore added 23 digs.

Data through · final Oct 22

Set1234Sets
NAU221425231
N COLO252522253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Nerea Alvarez-jorge had 58 assists, and Northern Colo. outlasted Northern Ariz.

The match turned once. Numbers are Northern Colo.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Northern Colo. 67% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Northern Ariz. 23–21 Northern Colo.

    Northern Colo. won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Northern Colo. 66% → >99%

Northern Colo. above 50Northern Ariz. belowMax swing 10.9%

Northern Ariz.Northern Colo.

Sideout %
Northern Ariz. 55.2·Northern Colo. 63.5
Break %
Northern Ariz. 36.5·Northern Colo. 44.8
Hitting
Northern Ariz. .159·Northern Colo. .222
Longest run
Northern Ariz. 7·Northern Colo. 5

Summer Snead
19 kills on .600, 25 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Northern Colo. above 50 · Northern Ariz. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.9% N COLOrally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.9% to Northern Colo. — set 4, NAU 23-24 N COLO. Kill by Summer Snead (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge). N COLO win probability 79% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NAU 32.7%67.3% N COLO

Northern Ariz. wins

3-0
6.5%
3-1
11.6%
3-2
14.6%

Northern Colo. wins

3-0
21.5%
3-1
25.8%
3-2
20.0%
NAU break %
41.9% vs this opp
N COLO break %
45.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Summer SneadKill+10.9%

    Kill by Summer Snead (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 4 · NAU 23-24 N COLO · N COLO 79% → 90%

  2. 02
    Alayna TessenaKill+10.1%

    Kill by Alayna Tessena (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 4 · NAU 23-25 N COLO · N COLO 90% → 100%

  3. 03
    Summer SneadKill+8.7%

    Kill by Summer Snead (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 4 · NAU 23-23 N COLO · N COLO 70% → 79%

  4. 04
    Quincey CoyleKill+7.8%

    Kill by Quincey Coyle (set by Ella Hosfeld)

    Set 4 · NAU 23-21 N COLO · NAU 26% → 34%

  5. 05
    Summer SneadKill+6.5%

    Kill by Summer Snead (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 4 · NAU 21-21 N COLO · N COLO 73% → 80%

  6. 06
    Taryn DavisKill+6.0%

    Kill by Taryn Davis (set by Leila Ballard)

    Set 4 · NAU 22-21 N COLO · NAU 20% → 26%

  7. 07
    Addison RoarkAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Addison Roark

    Set 4 · NAU 20-18 N COLO · NAU 24% → 30%

  8. 08

    Gigi Greenlee stuffed by Summer Snead & Alayna Tessena

    Set 1 · NAU 20-22 N COLO · N COLO 69% → 74%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412434.2350000022315
412268.14701415110114
49642.071031140010.512.5
44112.250010303038
4117.00000020111.52.5
4000–20021500000
4214.250000100002
42021.0001302100002
4001.0003111600001
3000–002000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4215170.1593661267374984
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419130.6000002044625
418850.20003220102122
46616.000000200006
4216.16758011700002
4012-.5000021500000
4011-1.0000011010000
49332.188000620009
48526.115000200219
4002.0002012300000
4000–000000000
2426.333000000004
Team totals6628171.222603797648897

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 NAU · N COLO 5

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 NAUN COLO 4

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 NAUN COLO 5

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 7 NAUN COLO 4

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 4 NAUN COLO 4

Bars above the line = Northern Colo. leads, below = Northern Ariz. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Ariz.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
33%5/15
2
36%10/28
23%3/13
3
62%8/13
17%2/12
4
80%8/10
56%10/18
5
67%8/12
56%10/18
6
67%8/12
11%1/9
All
55%53/96
36%31/85

Northern Colo.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
40%6/15
2
77%10/13
56%14/25
3
75%9/12
61%14/23
4
38%8/21
11%1/9
5
57%8/14
20%2/10
6
89%8/9
43%6/14
All
64%54/85
45%43/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#NAU-N COLOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NAUNAU×3KillGigi Greenlee+2.3
22-0NAUNAU×3Attack errAlayna Tessena+2.4
33-0NAUNAU×3AceQuincey Coyleaced Jasmine Ogren+2.4
43-1NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
54-1N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.9
64-2NAUN COLO×4Serve errKate Federico+1.7
74-3N COLON COLO×4KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
84-4N COLON COLO×4KillKylie Cackovic+2.4
94-5N COLON COLO×4KillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.4
105-5N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+1.9
115-6NAUN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.9
126-6N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.9
137-6NAUNAUAttack errMaddie Rink+2.6
147-7NAUN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.0
158-7N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+2.1
169-7NAUNAUBad setNerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.8
179-8NAUN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.1
1810-8N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+2.3
1910-9NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.1
2010-10N COLON COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.8
2111-10N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+2.4
2211-11NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
2311-12N COLON COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.9
2412-12N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Lilly Holmes+2.4
2513-12NAUNAUAttack errAlayna Tessena+3.3
2613-13NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
2713-14N COLON COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.2
2814-14N COLONAUAttack errKylie Cackovic+2.6
2914-15NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.6
3015-15N COLONAUAttack errKylie Cackovic+2.7
3116-15NAUNAUAceHanah Stoddardaced Kylie Cackovic+3.7
3216-16NAUN COLOServe errHanah Stoddard+2.8
3316-17N COLON COLOKillMaddie Rink+3.7
3417-17N COLONAUAttack errAlayna Tessena+3.0
3518-17NAUNAUBlockedMaddie Rinkblk Quincey Coyle, Gigi Greenlee+4.2
3618-18NAUN COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.2
3718-19N COLON COLOAttack errQuincey Coyle+4.3
3819-19N COLONAUAttack errJasmine Ogren+3.4
3919-20NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.6
4020-20N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+3.7
4120-21NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.0
4220-22N COLON COLOBlockedGigi Greenleeblk Summer Snead, Alayna Tessena+4.9
4321-22N COLONAUBlockedLeila Ballardblk Gigi Greenlee+3.1
4421-23NAUN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.3
4521-24N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.8
4622-24N COLONAUBlockedSummer Sneadblk Avery Gottschalk+1.2
4722-25NAUN COLOServe errTaryn Davis+2.7
Set 2
10-1N COLON COLOAttack errHanah Stoddard+1.8
21-1N COLONAUBlockedAlayna Tessenablk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+1.5
31-2NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.5
41-3N COLON COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
52-3N COLONAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+1.4
62-4NAUN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
73-4N COLONAUBlockedMaddie Rinkblk Avery Gottschalk+1.4
83-5NAUN COLOServe errHanah Stoddard+1.5
94-5N COLONAUKillLauren Edlundset Taryn Davis+1.5
104-6NAUN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.5
115-6N COLONAUKillLauren Edlundset Taryn Davis+1.5
125-7NAUN COLOServe errElla Hosfeld+1.5
135-8N COLON COLOBlockedGigi Greenleeblk Summer Snead+1.8
146-8N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+1.4
156-9NAUN COLOServe errQuincey Coyle+1.5
167-9N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.4
177-10NAUN COLO×5Serve errKate Federico+1.5
187-11N COLON COLO×5AceAlayna Tessenaaced Hanah Stoddard+1.7
197-12N COLON COLO×5KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
207-13N COLON COLO×5AceAlayna Tessena+1.1
217-14N COLON COLO×5KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.9
228-14N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+0.5
238-15NAUN COLO×3Serve errTaryn Davis+0.6
248-16N COLON COLO×3Attack errQuincey Coyle+0.6
258-17N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.4
269-17N COLONAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+0.2
279-18NAUN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Quincey Coyle+0.3
2810-18N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+0.1
2911-18NAUNAUAttack errAlayna Tessena+0.3
3011-19NAUN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.3
3111-20N COLON COLOBad setTaryn Davis+0.2
3212-20N COLONAUAttack errAlayna Tessena+0.1
3313-20NAUNAUBlockedNerea Alvarez-Jorgeblk Gigi Greenlee+0.2
3413-21NAUN COLO×3KillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.3
3513-22N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.1
3613-23N COLON COLO×3KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge·
3714-23N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld·
3814-24NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge·
3914-25N COLON COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge·
Set 3
10-1NAUN COLOServe errHanah Stoddard+0.8
20-2N COLON COLOBlockedQuincey Coyleblk Summer Snead, Gillian Walton+1.0
31-2N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Lilly Holmes+0.8
42-2NAUNAUAceAvery Gottschalk+1.1
52-3NAUN COLOBlockedLauren Edlundblk Summer Snead, Gillian Walton+0.9
62-4N COLON COLOBlockedGigi Greenleeblk Summer Snead+1.1
73-4N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+0.8
84-4NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+1.2
94-5NAUN COLOServe errElla Hosfeld+0.9
105-5N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+0.9
115-6NAUN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.9
126-6N COLONAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+1.0
137-6NAUNAU×4BlockedAlayna Tessenablk Avery Gottschalk+1.3
148-6NAUNAU×4Attack errMaddie Rink+1.4
159-6NAUNAU×4Attack errMaddie Rink+1.4
169-7NAUN COLOAttack errMasina Perez+1.0
179-8N COLON COLOAttack errHanah Stoddard+1.3
1810-8N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+1.1
1910-9NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.1
2011-9N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.2
2112-9NAUNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+1.5
2212-10NAUN COLO×3BlockedAvery Gottschalkblk Summer Snead+1.0
2312-11N COLON COLO×3KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
2412-12N COLON COLO×3KillSummer Snead+1.5
2513-12N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.3
2613-13NAUN COLO×4KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.2
2713-14N COLON COLO×4Attack errQuincey Coyle+1.6
2813-15N COLON COLO×4AceAlayna Tessena+1.5
2913-16N COLON COLO×4KillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
3014-16N COLONAUAttack errGillian Walton+1.0
3114-17NAUN COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.1
3215-17N COLONAU×7Attack errGillian Walton+1.0
3316-17NAUNAU×7BlockedGillian Waltonblk Hanah Stoddard+1.6
3417-17NAUNAU×7KillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.9
3518-17NAUNAU×7KillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+2.1
3619-17NAUNAU×7AceQuincey Coyleaced Kylie Cackovic+2.2
3720-17NAUNAU×7KillHanah Stoddardset Lilly Holmes+2.0
3821-17NAUNAU×7AceQuincey Coyleaced Alayna Tessena+1.7
3921-18NAUN COLOKillAddison Roarkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.8
4022-18N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.3
4122-19NAUN COLOKillAddison Roarkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.7
4222-20N COLON COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.5
4323-20N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+1.9
4423-21NAUN COLOKillAddison Roarkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.1
4524-21N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.9
4624-22NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.8
4725-22N COLONAUAttack errGillian Walton+1.8
Set 4
10-1N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.6
20-2N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
30-3N COLON COLO×3Attack errQuincey Coyle+2.3
41-3N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.8
51-4NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
61-5N COLON COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.2
72-5N COLONAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.6
82-6NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
93-6N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+1.6
103-7NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.7
114-7N COLONAU×4KillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+1.6
125-7NAUNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Bella LePore+2.4
136-7NAUNAU×4AceLilly Holmes+2.8
147-7NAUNAU×4BlockedKylie Cackovicblk Masina Perez+3.1
157-8NAUN COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Bella LePore+2.4
168-8N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+2.5
178-9NAUN COLOKillKylie Cackovicset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
189-9N COLONAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+2.6
199-10NAUN COLOServe errHanah Stoddard+2.6
2010-10N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+2.6
2111-10NAUNAUAttack errMaddie Rink+3.6
2211-11NAUN COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.7
2311-12N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.6
2411-13N COLON COLO×3BlockedGigi Greenleeblk Summer Snead, Alayna Tessena+3.4
2512-13N COLONAUAttack errAlayna Tessena+2.6
2612-14NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.7
2713-14N COLONAU×3KillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+2.7
2814-14NAUNAU×3KillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+3.9
2915-14NAUNAU×3Attack errGillian Walton+4.3
3015-15NAUN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.2
3115-16N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Bella LePore+4.3
3216-16N COLONAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+3.4
3317-16NAUNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+4.8
3417-17NAUN COLOServe errLilly Holmes+3.6
3518-17N COLONAUServe errNorthern Colo.+4.0
3618-18NAUN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.9
3719-18N COLONAUKillTaryn Davisset Taryn Davis+4.3
3820-18NAUNAUAttack errAddison Roark+5.7
3920-19NAUN COLOKillAddison Roarkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.8
4021-19N COLONAUAttack errAddison Roark+4.9
4121-20NAUN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.0
4221-21N COLON COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+6.5
4322-21N COLONAUKillTaryn Davisset Leila Ballard+6.0
4423-21NAUNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+7.8
4523-22NAUN COLO×4BlockedQuincey Coyleblk Summer Snead+4.4
4623-23N COLON COLO×4KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+8.7
4723-24N COLON COLO×4KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+10.9
4823-25N COLON COLO×4KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+10.1

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ariz. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).