Final · 4 setsSat, Nov 7, 2026

New Mexico St. def. Missouri St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Missouri St. 55.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Mexico St. beat visiting Missouri St. 3-1 (25-16, 25-15, 23-25, 25-17) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026. New Mexico St.'s Ashley Herman led with 15 kills, and Makayla Martinez added 17 digs.

Data through · final Nov 7

Set1234Sets
MO ST161525171
NM ST252523253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.375 on 32 swings: Ashley Herman and New Mexico St. edged Missouri St.

The match turned twice. Numbers are New Mexico St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had Missouri St. at 55% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Missouri St. 5–7 New Mexico St.

    Down 5–7, Missouri St. scored 4 straight to lead 9–7.

    New Mexico St. 80% → 65%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Missouri St. 11–10 New Mexico St.

    Down 10–11, New Mexico St. scored 4 straight to lead 14–11.

    New Mexico St. 69% → 86%

New Mexico St. above 50Missouri St. belowMax swing 4.9%

Missouri St.New Mexico St.

Sideout %
Missouri St. 54.6·New Mexico St. 73.0
Break %
Missouri St. 27.0·New Mexico St. 45.4
Hitting
Missouri St. .209·New Mexico St. .353
Longest run
Missouri St. 5·New Mexico St. 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

New Mexico St. above 50 · Missouri St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.9% NM STrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.9% to New Mexico St. — set 4, MO ST 11-13 NM ST. Kill by Tess Fuqua (set by Katrina Catalan). NM ST win probability 77% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MO ST 50.0%50.0% NM ST

Missouri St. wins

3-0
12.5%
3-1
18.8%
3-2
18.8%

New Mexico St. wins

3-0
12.5%
3-1
18.7%
3-2
18.7%
MO ST break %
40.6% vs this opp
NM ST break %
40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Tess FuquaKill+4.9%

    Kill by Tess Fuqua (set by Katrina Catalan)

    Set 4 · MO ST 11-13 NM ST · NM ST 77% → 82%

  2. 02

    Jenna Walters stuffed by Ashley Herman & Zoe Ziegler

    Set 4 · MO ST 11-12 NM ST · NM ST 72% → 77%

  3. 03

    Kill by Hannah Gardner (set by Halle Rillie)

    Set 3 · MO ST 25-23 NM ST · MO ST 22% → 27%

  4. 04
    Lexi WeinbergAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Lexi Weinberg

    Set 4 · MO ST 11-14 NM ST · NM ST 82% → 86%

  5. 05

    Ashley Herman stuffed by Jenna Walters & Chloe Judd

    Set 4 · MO ST 11-10 NM ST · MO ST 27% → 31%

  6. 06

    Ace by Katrina Catalan on Kya Johnson

    Set 4 · MO ST 9-10 NM ST · NM ST 72% → 76%

  7. 07
    Mia FoxKill+4.4%

    Kill by Mia Fox (set by Paige Nelson)

    Set 4 · MO ST 15-19 NM ST · NM ST 89% → 93%

  8. 08
    Ashley HermanKill+4.3%

    Kill by Ashley Herman (set by Katrina Catalan)

    Set 4 · MO ST 9-9 NM ST · NM ST 68% → 72%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414744.1590000002115
414123.565230180010.514.5
46116.313000000006
44415.000000200004
4001.0002211420002
1000–000000000
47521.09500000111.58.5
4418.375001100215
4112.0001901700001
4000–2021310000
4000–301200000
1024-.500000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5022134.209492747516473
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415332.37500020153.518.5
414638.21100111002115
410218.4440104002112
410219.4211027100010
47217.2941002006310
4001.0002631700003
47010.70000000031.58.5
4000–2310500001
4000–9001700000
3000–000200000
3000–000100000
3000–000000000
1001.000000000000
Team totals6315136.35360545821181098

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Missouri St. vs New Mexico St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MO ST · NM ST 4

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 MO STNM ST 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 MO STNM ST 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 MO STNM ST 3

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 4 MO STNM ST 4

Bars above the line = New Mexico St. leads, below = Missouri St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Missouri St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%11/25
38%6/16
2
60%9/15
15%2/13
3
75%9/12
40%6/15
4
57%8/14
20%2/10
5
50%8/16
11%1/9
6
53%8/15
27%3/11
All
55%53/97
27%20/74

New Mexico St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
60%15/25
2
67%10/15
44%8/18
3
73%8/11
36%5/14
4
89%8/9
27%3/11
5
100%8/8
50%8/16
6
57%8/14
38%5/13
All
73%54/74
45%44/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#MO ST-NM STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Kya Johnson+1.7
22-0MO STMO STAttack errAshley Herman+2.5
32-1MO STNM ST×3KillTess Fuquaset Katrina Catalan+1.7
42-2NM STNM ST×3Attack errRilynn Finley+2.6
52-3NM STNM ST×3KillAshley Hermanset Zoe Ziegler+2.7
63-3NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.8
74-3MO STMO STAttack errAshley Herman+2.7
84-4MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+1.9
95-4NM STMO STKillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+1.9
105-5MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+1.9
116-5NM STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+2.0
126-6MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+2.0
136-7NM STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+3.0
147-7NM STMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.0
157-8MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+2.1
168-8NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.1
178-9MO STNM ST×3BlockedLexi Weinbergblk Ashley Herman+2.2
188-10NM STNM ST×3AceKatrina Catalan+3.2
198-11NM STNM ST×3KillZoe Zieglerset Katrina Catalan+3.0
209-11NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Kya Johnson+1.9
219-12MO STNM STServe errKya Johnson+2.2
2210-12NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.9
2310-13MO STNM STKillZoe Zieglerset Katrina Catalan+2.2
2411-13NM STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.9
2511-14MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+2.3
2611-15NM STNM STKillMia Foxset Makayla Martinez+2.9
2712-15NM STMO STAttack errMaggie Lightheart+1.6
2812-16MO STNM ST×4KillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+2.1
2912-17NM STNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Tess Fuqua+2.4
3012-18NM STNM ST×4Attack errHalle Rillie+1.7
3112-19NM STNM ST×4KillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+1.1
3213-19NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.4
3313-20MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+0.7
3413-21NM STNM STAceJaelynn Kohliaced Brooke Eslinger+0.5
3514-21NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.1
3614-22MO STNM ST×3KillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+0.3
3714-23NM STNM ST×3Attack errLexi Weinberg+0.1
3814-24NM STNM ST×3KillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan·
3915-24NM STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner·
4016-24MO STMO STAttack errTess Fuqua·
4116-25MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan·
Set 2
11-0MO STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.7
21-1MO STNM STServe errBrooke Eslinger+1.9
32-1NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.9
42-2MO STNM STKillZoe Zieglerset Katrina Catalan+1.9
52-3NM STNM STBlockedHannah Gardnerblk Maggie Lightheart, Zoe Ziegler+2.9
63-3NM STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+1.9
73-4MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Katrina Catalan+2.0
84-4NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Riley Ourth+2.0
94-5MO STNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+2.1
104-6NM STNM ST×4BlockedAshlyn Blazerblk Mia Fox, Jaelynn Kohli+3.0
114-7NM STNM ST×4KillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+2.9
124-8NM STNM ST×4Attack errAshlyn Blazer+2.7
135-8NM STMO STServe errMaggie Lightheart+1.6
145-9MO STNM STKillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+1.9
156-9NM STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+1.6
166-10MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Paige Nelson+1.9
176-11NM STNM STKillZoe Zieglerset Katrina Catalan+2.5
187-11NM STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+1.4
197-12MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+1.7
208-12NM STMO STBlockedMaggie Lightheartblk Lexi Weinberg, Chloe Judd+1.4
218-13MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Makayla Martinez+1.7
228-14NM STNM STKillZoe Zieglerset Katrina Catalan+2.0
239-14NM STMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+1.0
2410-14MO STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.0
2510-15MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+1.8
2611-15NM STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.3
2711-16MO STNM STServe errChloe Judd+1.8
2811-17NM STNM STAttack errJenna Walters+1.9
2912-17NM STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+0.9
3012-18MO STNM ST×4Serve errHannah Gardner+1.3
3112-19NM STNM ST×4Attack errLexi Weinberg+1.2
3212-20NM STNM ST×4Attack errHannah Redrow+0.7
3312-21NM STNM ST×4Attack errLexi Weinberg+0.3
3413-21NM STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+0.1
3513-22MO STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Makayla Martinez+0.2
3614-22NM STMO STAttack errZoe Ziegler·
3714-23MO STNM STAttack errRilynn Finley+0.1
3815-23NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner·
3915-24MO STNM STServe errHalle Rillie+0.1
4015-25NM STNM STBlockedRilynn Finleyblk Zoe Ziegler, Jaelynn Kohli·
Set 3
10-1NM STNM STBlockedJenna Waltersblk Ashley Herman, Zoe Ziegler+1.9
20-2NM STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+1.9
31-2NM STMO STBad setKatrina Catalan+1.2
41-3MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+1.3
52-3NM STMO ST×5KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.3
63-3MO STMO ST×5BlockedJaelynn Kohliblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Gardner+1.9
74-3MO STMO ST×5BlockedMaggie Lightheartblk Jenna Walters+2.0
85-3MO STMO ST×5KillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.9
96-3MO STMO ST×5Attack errMaggie Lightheart+1.8
106-4MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Katrina Catalan+1.2
117-4NM STMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+1.3
127-5MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+1.2
137-6NM STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+2.0
148-6NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Riley Ourth+1.4
158-7MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+1.4
169-7NM STMO STKillHalle Rillieset Brooke Eslinger+1.5
179-8MO STNM STKillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+1.4
1810-8NM STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+1.5
1910-9MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Makayla Martinez+1.5
2010-10NM STNM STAttack errJenna Walters+2.3
2111-10NM STMO STServe errTess Fuqua+1.7
2211-11MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+1.7
2312-11NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.7
2412-12MO STNM STKillZoe Zieglerset Katrina Catalan+1.7
2512-13NM STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+2.6
2613-13NM STMO ST×3KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+1.8
2714-13MO STMO ST×3Attack errJaelynn Kohli+2.7
2815-13MO STMO ST×3Bad setPaige Nelson+2.6
2915-14MO STNM STBlockedRilynn Finleyblk Maggie Lightheart, Mia Fox+1.7
3016-14NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+1.9
3117-14MO STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Riley Ourth+2.5
3217-15MO STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+1.4
3318-15NM STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.8
3418-16MO STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+1.5
3519-16NM STMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.8
3620-16MO STMO ST×4Attack errZoe Ziegler+2.1
3721-16MO STMO ST×4Attack errTess Fuqua+1.4
3822-16MO STMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+0.8
3922-17MO STNM ST×3KillTess Fuquaset Makayla Martinez+0.2
4022-18NM STNM ST×3KillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+0.6
4122-19NM STNM ST×3BlockedJenna Waltersblk Zoe Ziegler, Ashley Herman+1.1
4223-19NM STMO STAttack errMaggie Lightheart+1.3
4323-20MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Makayla Martinez+0.6
4423-21NM STNM STKillZoe Zieglerset Hannah Gardner+1.7
4524-21NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.2
4624-22MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+0.8
4724-23NM STNM STAcePaige Nelson+2.9
4825-23NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+4.9
Set 4
11-0MO STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Katrina Catalan+3.6
21-1MO STNM STServe errBrooke Eslinger+2.5
31-2NM STNM STAttack errChloe Judd+3.7
42-2NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.5
52-3MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Makayla Martinez+2.6
63-3NM STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+2.6
73-4MO STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Katrina Catalan+2.7
83-5NM STNM STBad setHalle Rillie+3.9
94-5NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.6
104-6MO STNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+2.8
115-6NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.6
125-7MO STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Makayla Martinez+2.8
136-7NM STMO ST×4KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+2.7
147-7MO STMO ST×4Attack errMaggie Lightheart+4.1
158-7MO STMO ST×4AceKya Johnson+4.2
169-7MO STMO ST×4AceKya Johnsonaced Tess Fuqua+4.1
179-8MO STNM ST×3KillAshley Hermanset Makayla Martinez+2.7
189-9NM STNM ST×3KillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+4.3
199-10NM STNM ST×3AceKatrina Catalanaced Kya Johnson+4.6
2010-10NM STMO STServe errKatrina Catalan+3.1
2111-10MO STMO STBlockedAshley Hermanblk Jenna Walters, Chloe Judd+4.6
2211-11MO STNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+3.2
2311-12NM STNM ST×4BlockedJenna Waltersblk Ashley Herman, Zoe Ziegler+4.9
2411-13NM STNM ST×4KillTess Fuquaset Katrina Catalan+4.9
2511-14NM STNM ST×4Attack errLexi Weinberg+4.6
2612-14NM STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+2.8
2712-15MO STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+3.3
2813-15NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Brooke Eslinger+2.8
2913-16MO STNM STServe errRiley Ourth+3.4
3014-16NM STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.9
3114-17MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+3.6
3215-17NM STMO STServe errTess Fuqua+2.9
3315-18MO STNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+3.7
3415-19NM STNM STKillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+4.4
3516-19NM STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.1
3616-20MO STNM ST×4KillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+3.1
3716-21NM STNM ST×4AceKatrina Catalanaced Kya Johnson+3.0
3816-22NM STNM ST×4KillAshley Hermanset Makayla Martinez+1.7
3916-23NM STNM ST×4Attack errLexi Weinberg+0.7
4017-23NM STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+0.1
4117-24MO STNM STBlockedLexi Weinbergblk Zoe Ziegler, Ashley Herman+0.3
4217-25NM STNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Missouri St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).