FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeMVC

Indiana St. def. Green Bay 3–0

(31-29, 25-17, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
GRNBAY	29	17	18	0
IND ST	31	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IND ST above 50 · GRNBAY below

Biggest swing: 10.5% to Indiana St. — set 1, GRNBAY 29-31 IND ST. Diane Pichelman stuffed by Lily Mueller & Kira Holland. IND ST win probability 47% → 57%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GRNBAY 63.9%36.1% IND ST

Green Bay wins

3-0

19.4%

3-1

24.5%

3-2

20.0%

Indiana St. wins

3-0

7.5%

3-1

13.0%

3-2

15.6%

GRNBAY break %: 43.1% vs this opp
IND ST break %: 40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Diane PichelmanAttack error+10.5%
Diane Pichelman stuffed by Lily Mueller & Kira Holland
Set 1 · GRNBAY 29-31 IND ST · IND ST 47% → 57%
02
Curry KendallKill+9.9%
Kill by Curry Kendall (set by Hadley Hardersen)
Set 1 · GRNBAY 24-25 IND ST · IND ST 37% → 47%
03
Ella ScottKill+9.9%
Kill by Ella Scott
Set 1 · GRNBAY 26-27 IND ST · IND ST 37% → 47%
04
Ava RobartAttack error+9.4%
Ava Robart stuffed by Olivia Neumann & Kirsten Fish
Set 1 · GRNBAY 26-25 IND ST · GRNBAY 60% → 70%
05
Gillian KoningKill+7.5%
Kill by Gillian Koning
Set 1 · GRNBAY 23-22 IND ST · GRNBAY 61% → 68%
06
Gillian KoningKill+7.1%
Kill by Gillian Koning (set by Alexa Hernandez)
Set 1 · GRNBAY 25-25 IND ST · GRNBAY 53% → 60%
07
Ava RobartAttack error+7.1%
Ava Robart stuffed by Olivia Neumann & Kirsten Fish
Set 1 · GRNBAY 27-27 IND ST · GRNBAY 53% → 60%
08
Ava RobartKill+7.1%
Kill by Ava Robart (set by Avery Hales)
Set 1 · GRNBAY 27-28 IND ST · IND ST 40% → 47%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Green Bayaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Gillian KoningOH	3	14	5	34	.265	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14
5Olivia NeumannMB	3	8	2	15	.400	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
10Diane PichelmanMB	3	3	6	16	-.188	1	1	3	0	1	2	2	5
21Alexa HernandezS	3	1	0	3	.333	23	4	9	0	0	0	0	1
12Kendall ScharaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
4Kennedy SchmitzL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0
6Kayla BirminghamOH	3	8	3	36	.139	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
2Macy KlineL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	15	1	0	0	0	0
20Jessica KurpeikisOH	2	3	2	8	.125	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
11Kirsten FishOH	2	0	1	6	-.167	0	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
8Alexis GardnerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
14Sari MarksS	1	0	2	3	-.667	7	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
17Kelsey JustmanOH	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Eva SwensonS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	21	124	.129	35	10	48	7	1	10	6	64

Indiana St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Ava RobartOH	3	12	5	28	.250	0	1	3	5	0	3	1.5	14.5
18Kira HollandOH	3	7	4	25	.120	0	1	1	12	0	3	1.5	9.5
4Ella ScottMB	3	8	2	15	.400	1	1	2	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
14Curry KendallOH	3	6	3	20	.150	0	0	0	2	1	1	1.5	7.5
8Hadley HardersenS	3	4	1	15	.200	17	1	0	8	0	0	0	5
6Lily MuellerMB	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	6	3	5
19Avery HalesS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	3	2	5	0	0	0	4
16Macy LengacherL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1
11Emmy SherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	17	0	0	0	0
5Kennedy GlasgowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	16	109	.229	37	7	10	58	1	14	8	81

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 GRNBAY · IND ST 6

Set 1

29-31

Longest run 3 GRNBAYIND ST 4

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 GRNBAYIND ST 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 GRNBAYIND ST 6

Bars above the line = Indiana St. leads, below = Green Bay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Green Bay

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%8/21	20%2/10
2	70%7/10	33%4/12
3	64%7/11	30%3/10
4	41%7/17	36%4/11
5	64%7/11	36%4/11
6	70%7/10	36%4/11
All	54%43/80	32%21/65

Indiana St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	60%12/20
2	64%7/11	46%6/13
3	64%7/11	36%4/11
4	88%7/8	42%5/12
5	54%7/13	50%7/14
6	70%7/10	30%3/10
All	68%44/65	46%37/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

145 rallies

Rally log

#	GRNBAY-IND ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Kira Holland		+1.7
2	2-0	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.2
3	2-1	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.6
4	3-1	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.6
5	4-1	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Lily Mueller		+2.1
6	4-2	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.5
7	5-2	IND ST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.5
8	6-2	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.0
9	7-2	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Curry Kendall		+1.7
10	7-3	GRNBAY	IND ST×4	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.1
11	7-4	IND ST	IND ST×4	Kill	Ella Scott		+1.8
12	7-5	IND ST	IND ST×4	Bad set	Alexa Hernandez		+2.1
13	7-6	IND ST	IND ST×4	Kill	Ella Scott	set Avery Hales	+2.4
14	8-6	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+1.8
15	8-7	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Avery Hales	+1.8
16	9-7	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Kira Holland		+1.9
17	9-8	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.9
18	10-8	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+1.9
19	10-9	GRNBAY	IND ST×3	Kill	Hadley Hardersen	set Avery Hales	+1.9
20	10-10	IND ST	IND ST×3	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+3.0
21	10-11	IND ST	IND ST×3	Ace	IND ST server	aced Kendall Schara	+3.2
22	11-11	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.2
23	12-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Diane Pichelman	+3.2
24	12-12	GRNBAY	IND ST×4	Attack err	Gillian Koning	blk Kira Holland, Lily Mueller	+2.3
25	12-13	IND ST	IND ST×4	Attack err	Gillian Koning	blk Curry Kendall	+3.5
26	12-14	IND ST	IND ST×4	Kill	Curry Kendall	set Hadley Hardersen	+3.5
27	12-15	IND ST	IND ST×4	Kill	Curry Kendall	set Emmy Sher	+3.4
28	13-15	IND ST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Macy Kline	+2.1
29	14-15	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Ava Robart		+3.4
30	15-15	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Curry Kendall		+3.7
31	15-16	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+2.9
32	16-16	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+2.8
33	16-17	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+3.0
34	17-17	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.9
35	17-18	GRNBAY	IND ST	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham		+3.2
36	17-19	IND ST	IND ST	Bad set	Alexa Hernandez		+4.6
37	18-19	IND ST	GRNBAY×3	Serve err	IND ST server		+2.8
38	19-19	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Ella Scott		+4.7
39	20-19	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+5.0
40	20-20	GRNBAY	IND ST	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham		+3.6
41	21-20	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Macy Kline	+4.0
42	21-21	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Kira Holland	set Avery Hales	+4.0
43	21-22	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Diane Pichelman	blk Lily Mueller, Kira Holland	+6.6
44	22-22	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+4.5
45	23-22	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning		+7.5
46	23-23	GRNBAY	IND ST	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+5.2
47	24-23	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+6.7
48	24-24	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Curry Kendall	set Hadley Hardersen	+6.7
49	24-25	IND ST	IND ST	Kill	Curry Kendall	set Hadley Hardersen	+9.9
50	25-25	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+7.1
51	26-25	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ava Robart	blk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish	+9.4
52	26-26	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Emmy Sher	+6.7
53	26-27	IND ST	IND ST	Kill	Ella Scott		+9.9
54	27-27	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ava Robart	blk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish	+7.1
55	27-28	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Avery Hales	+7.1
56	28-28	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+7.1
57	28-29	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+7.1
58	29-29	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+7.1
59	29-30	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+7.1
60	29-31	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Diane Pichelman	blk Lily Mueller, Kira Holland	+10.5
Set 2
1	0-1	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ella Scott	set Avery Hales	+2.1
2	1-1	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+2.0
3	1-2	GRNBAY	IND ST	Attack err	Olivia Neumann		+2.1
4	2-2	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.0
5	2-3	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+2.2
6	3-3	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.1
7	3-4	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Curry Kendall	set Hadley Hardersen	+2.2
8	3-5	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Kirsten Fish	blk Lily Mueller, Ava Robart	+3.1
9	4-5	IND ST	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.1
10	5-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Ava Robart	blk Diane Pichelman, Kirsten Fish	+3.1
11	6-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Curry Kendall		+3.1
12	7-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Kayla Birmingham		+3.0
13	7-6	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+2.1
14	8-6	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+2.2
15	9-6	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.8
16	9-7	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.9
17	9-8	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+3.0
18	10-8	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.3
19	10-9	GRNBAY	IND ST×3	Kill	Ava Robart	set Avery Hales	+2.2
20	10-10	IND ST	IND ST×3	Kill	Ella Scott	set Avery Hales	+3.5
21	10-11	IND ST	IND ST×3	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+3.7
22	11-11	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.6
23	12-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+3.7
24	12-12	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Macy Lengacher		+2.7
25	13-12	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Kira Holland		+2.7
26	13-13	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Kira Holland	set Emmy Sher	+2.8
27	14-13	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.9
28	14-14	GRNBAY	IND ST×5	Attack err	Olivia Neumann	blk Lily Mueller, Curry Kendall	+2.9
29	14-15	IND ST	IND ST×5	Kill	Kira Holland	set Hadley Hardersen	+4.4
30	14-16	IND ST	IND ST×5	Kill	Lily Mueller	set Hadley Hardersen	+4.5
31	14-17	IND ST	IND ST×5	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+4.3
32	14-18	IND ST	IND ST×5	Ace	IND ST server	aced Macy Kline	+3.7
33	15-18	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Macy Kline	+2.0
34	15-19	GRNBAY	IND ST×3	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+2.7
35	15-20	IND ST	IND ST×3	Attack err	Jessica Kurpeikis	blk Ella Scott, Ava Robart	+2.8
36	15-21	IND ST	IND ST×3	Kill	Ella Scott	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.8
37	16-21	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Jessica Kurpeikis	set Alexis Gardner	+0.7
38	16-22	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Ella Scott	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.2
39	16-23	IND ST	IND ST	Ace	IND ST server	aced Alexis Gardner	+0.7
40	17-23	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ella Scott	blk Diane Pichelman	+0.1
41	17-24	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Hadley Hardersen	set Avery Hales	+0.3
42	17-25	IND ST	IND ST	Ace	IND ST server	aced Kendall Schara	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+1.5
2	1-1	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.5
3	2-1	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.5
4	2-2	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Kira Holland	set Avery Hales	+1.5
5	2-3	IND ST	IND ST	Ace	IND ST server	aced Kendall Schara	+2.3
6	3-3	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Hadley Hardersen	blk Diane Pichelman, Kayla Birmingham	+1.6
7	4-3	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+2.2
8	4-4	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Lily Mueller	set Avery Hales	+1.6
9	4-5	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Sari Marks		+2.4
10	5-5	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+1.7
11	6-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Jessica Kurpeikis	set Sari Marks	+2.3
12	6-6	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.7
13	6-7	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham	blk Ava Robart, Lily Mueller	+2.5
14	7-7	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+1.7
15	7-8	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Curry Kendall	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.9
16	8-8	IND ST	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Sari Marks	+1.8
17	9-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Ava Robart		+2.5
18	10-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Sari Marks	+2.4
19	10-9	GRNBAY	IND ST×6	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+1.7
20	10-10	IND ST	IND ST×6	Kill	Ella Scott		+2.6
21	10-11	IND ST	IND ST×6	Ace	IND ST server	aced Team	+2.8
22	10-12	IND ST	IND ST×6	Kill	Ava Robart	set Avery Hales	+2.9
23	10-13	IND ST	IND ST×6	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+2.8
24	10-14	IND ST	IND ST×6	Ace	IND ST server	aced Gillian Koning	+2.6
25	11-14	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Sari Marks	+1.5
26	11-15	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Hadley Hardersen	set Avery Hales	+1.9
27	12-15	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+1.5
28	12-16	GRNBAY	IND ST×3	Attack err	Sari Marks		+2.0
29	12-17	IND ST	IND ST×3	Kill	Avery Hales	set Ella Scott	+2.3
30	12-18	IND ST	IND ST×3	Kill	Kira Holland	set Avery Hales	+1.7
31	13-18	IND ST	GRNBAY	Serve err	IND ST server		+0.8
32	13-19	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Kira Holland	set Emmy Sher	+1.2
33	14-19	IND ST	GRNBAY	Attack err	Kira Holland	blk Sari Marks, Olivia Neumann	+0.7
34	14-20	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Kira Holland	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.1
35	15-20	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Sari Marks	+0.6
36	16-20	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Bad set	Hadley Hardersen		+1.3
37	16-21	GRNBAY	IND ST	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+1.5
38	16-22	IND ST	IND ST	Kill	Ava Robart	set Hadley Hardersen	+1.2
39	17-22	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Jessica Kurpeikis	set Sari Marks	+0.4
40	17-23	GRNBAY	IND ST	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+0.7
41	17-24	IND ST	IND ST	Attack err	Jessica Kurpeikis		+0.3
42	18-24	IND ST	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Sari Marks	+0.0
43	18-25	GRNBAY	IND ST	Kill	Hadley Hardersen	set Avery Hales	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Green Bay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.