FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeIVY-LEAGUE

Yale def. Manhattan 3–0

(25-11, 25-20, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MANHAT	11	20	11	0
YALE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

YALE above 50 · MANHAT below

Biggest swing: 0.0% to Manhattan — set 2, MANHAT 14-10 YALE. Manhattan ace on Arya Jue. YALE win probability 100% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MANHAT 0.1%99.9% YALE

Manhattan wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.0%

Yale wins

3-0

91.0%

3-1

8.5%

3-2

0.5%

MANHAT break %: 30.1% vs this opp
YALE break %: 55.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MANHAT serverAce+0.0%
Manhattan ace on Arya Jue
Set 2 · MANHAT 14-10 YALE · MANHAT 0% → 0%
02
Betsy GoodenowKill+0.0%
Kill by Betsy Goodenow (set by Kalyssa Taggart)
Set 2 · MANHAT 14-12 YALE · YALE 100% → 100%
03
Katie PowersKill+0.0%
Kill by Katie Powers (set by Ori Briger)
Set 2 · MANHAT 13-10 YALE · MANHAT 0% → 0%
04
YALE serverAce+0.0%
Yale ace on Anna Duncan
Set 2 · MANHAT 14-13 YALE · YALE 100% → 100%
05
YALE serverService error+0.0%
Yale service error
Set 2 · MANHAT 11-7 YALE · MANHAT 0% → 0%
06
Arya JueBad set+0.0%
Bad set by Arya Jue
Set 2 · MANHAT 8-4 YALE · MANHAT 0% → 0%
07
MANHAT serverAce+0.0%
Manhattan ace on Arya Jue
Set 1 · MANHAT 6-4 YALE · MANHAT 0% → 0%
08
Abby MorrealeKill+0.0%
Kill by Abby Morreale (set by Ori Briger)
Set 2 · MANHAT 12-9 YALE · MANHAT 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Manhattanaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Abby MorrealeMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	2	6
6Katie PowersOH	3	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1.5	5.5
8Emma FrancesconiOH	3	3	6	21	-.143	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	3
10Ori BrigerS	3	1	0	1	1.000	8	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
9Kaitlyn DoyleL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Helenn MontillaMB	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Karsyn HarrisOH	3	4	2	16	.125	0	0	1	6	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
28Hanna KaczynskaOH	3	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
3Julia PflegerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	4	2	0	0	0	2
4Emilia KuzniarS	3	0	1	2	-.500	7	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
15Anna DuncanDS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
5Lyla AuthMB	2	0	0	3	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
22Brooke JohnsonOH	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
7Margaret OBrienOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		18	15	83	.036	17	4	5	27	9	2	10	7	42

Yalehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Ava PoinsettOH	3	9	2	17	.412	0	5	1	6	2	2	1	15
4Laurece AbrahamMB	3	12	0	21	.571	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	13.5
33Betsy GoodenowOH	3	4	3	15	.067	1	0	1	4	0	2	1	5
15Skylar JacksonOH	3	3	4	14	-.071	2	0	1	11	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Kalyssa TaggartS	3	1	1	4	.000	23	1	1	4	0	0	0	2
10Cam BolaneMB	2	5	2	8	.375	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
6Arya JueL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	12	2	0	0	2
5Naya SalfitiOH	2	4	1	5	.600	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
22Bethanie WuS	2	0	0	0	–	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Mila MijailovicOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
20Gaby StasysMB	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
23Isabel PattersonOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Yuri ParkL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
Team totals		42	13	90	.322	41	9	4	43	4	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MANHAT · YALE 8

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 3 MANHATYALE 6

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 MANHATYALE 7

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 4 MANHATYALE 8

Bars above the line = Yale leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Manhattan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	14%1/7
2	40%6/15	22%2/9
3	50%4/8	14%1/7
4	24%4/17	50%4/8
5	67%4/6	20%1/5
6	36%4/11	50%4/8
All	40%29/73	30%13/44

Yale

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	62%8/13
2	88%7/8	59%10/17
3	83%5/6	62%8/13
4	50%4/8	69%9/13
5	80%4/5	67%8/12
6	57%4/7	20%1/5
All	70%31/44	60%44/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

117 rallies

Rally log

#	MANHAT-YALE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Ava Poinsett	+0.0
2	1-1	MANHAT	YALE	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
3	2-1	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
4	2-2	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
5	3-2	YALE	MANHAT	Bad set	Kalyssa Taggart		+0.0
6	3-3	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
7	3-4	YALE	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
8	4-4	YALE	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow		+0.0
9	5-4	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Ava Poinsett	+0.0
10	6-4	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Arya Jue	+0.0
11	6-5	MANHAT	YALE×6	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
12	6-6	YALE	YALE×6	Ace	YALE server	aced Brooke Johnson	+0.0
13	6-7	YALE	YALE×6	Ace	YALE server	aced Brooke Johnson	+0.0
14	6-8	YALE	YALE×6	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
15	6-9	YALE	YALE×6	Attack err	Emilia Kuzniar		+0.0
16	6-10	YALE	YALE×6	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Skylar Jackson	+0.0
17	7-10	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
18	7-11	MANHAT	YALE	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Cam Bolane, Skylar Jackson	+0.0
19	7-12	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
20	8-12	YALE	MANHAT	Serve err	YALE server		+0.0
21	8-13	MANHAT	YALE×5	Kill	Cam Bolane	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
22	8-14	YALE	YALE×5	Kill	Kalyssa Taggart	set Betsy Goodenow	+0.0
23	8-15	YALE	YALE×5	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
24	8-16	YALE	YALE×5	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Ava Poinsett, Cam Bolane	+0.0
25	8-17	YALE	YALE×5	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Cam Bolane, Ava Poinsett	+0.0
26	9-17	YALE	MANHAT	Attack err	Cam Bolane		+0.0
27	9-18	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
28	9-19	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+0.0
29	10-19	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Ori Briger	+0.0
30	10-20	MANHAT	YALE×3	Attack err	Karsyn Harris		+0.0
31	10-21	YALE	YALE×3	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
32	10-22	YALE	YALE×3	Kill	Ava Poinsett		+0.0
33	11-22	YALE	MANHAT	Serve err	YALE server		+0.0
34	11-23	MANHAT	YALE×3	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
35	11-24	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Helenn Montilla		+0.0
36	11-25	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	YALE	MANHAT×3	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.0
2	2-0	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Cam Bolane		+0.0
3	3-0	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Kalyssa Taggart	blk Abby Morreale	+0.0
4	3-1	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Cam Bolane	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
5	4-1	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.0
6	5-1	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Ava Poinsett	blk Lyla Auth, Katie Powers	+0.0
7	5-2	MANHAT	YALE	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
8	5-3	YALE	YALE	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Laurece Abraham, Betsy Goodenow	+0.0
9	6-3	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.0
10	6-4	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
11	7-4	YALE	MANHAT	Serve err	YALE server		+0.0
12	8-4	MANHAT	MANHAT	Bad set	Arya Jue		+0.0
13	8-5	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
14	9-5	YALE	MANHAT	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow	blk Karsyn Harris, Lyla Auth	+0.0
15	9-6	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Cam Bolane	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
16	10-6	YALE	MANHAT	Attack err	Skylar Jackson	blk Abby Morreale, Hanna Kaczynska	+0.0
17	10-7	MANHAT	YALE	Bad set	Ori Briger		+0.0
18	11-7	YALE	MANHAT	Serve err	YALE server		+0.0
19	11-8	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Naya Salfiti	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
20	11-9	YALE	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
21	12-9	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.0
22	12-10	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Naya Salfiti	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
23	13-10	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
24	14-10	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Arya Jue	+0.0
25	14-11	MANHAT	YALE×7	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
26	14-12	YALE	YALE×7	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
27	14-13	YALE	YALE×7	Ace	YALE server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
28	14-14	YALE	YALE×7	Ace	YALE server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
29	14-15	YALE	YALE×7	Ace	YALE server	aced Julia Pfleger	+0.0
30	14-16	YALE	YALE×7	Ace	YALE server	aced Karsyn Harris	+0.0
31	14-17	YALE	YALE×7	Ace	YALE server	aced Julia Pfleger	+0.0
32	15-17	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
33	15-18	MANHAT	YALE	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
34	15-19	YALE	YALE	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
35	16-19	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
36	17-19	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
37	17-20	MANHAT	YALE	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
38	18-20	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
39	18-21	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Cam Bolane	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
40	18-22	YALE	YALE	Kill	Cam Bolane	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
41	19-22	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Anna Duncan	+0.0
42	19-23	MANHAT	YALE	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
43	19-24	YALE	YALE	Kill	Naya Salfiti	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
44	20-24	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Emma Francesconi	+0.0
45	20-25	MANHAT	YALE	Attack err	Emma Francesconi	blk Laurece Abraham, Naya Salfiti	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Gaby Stasys	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
2	1-1	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Ori Briger	set Ori Briger	+0.0
3	1-2	MANHAT	YALE×5	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
4	1-3	YALE	YALE×5	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
5	1-4	YALE	YALE×5	Ace	YALE server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
6	1-5	YALE	YALE×5	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
7	1-6	YALE	YALE×5	Bad set	Anna Duncan		+0.0
8	2-6	YALE	MANHAT	Attack err	Ava Poinsett	blk Katie Powers	+0.0
9	2-7	MANHAT	YALE	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
10	3-7	YALE	MANHAT	Attack err	Betsy Goodenow		+0.0
11	4-7	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Skylar Jackson	blk Hanna Kaczynska, Lyla Auth	+0.0
12	4-8	MANHAT	YALE×3	Kill	Betsy Goodenow	set Kalyssa Taggart	+0.0
13	4-9	YALE	YALE×3	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska	blk Gaby Stasys, Betsy Goodenow	+0.0
14	4-10	YALE	YALE×3	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Arya Jue	+0.0
15	5-10	YALE	MANHAT	Bad set	Kalyssa Taggart		+0.0
16	5-11	MANHAT	YALE	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
17	6-11	YALE	MANHAT×4	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
18	7-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Skylar Jackson		+0.0
19	8-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Naya Salfiti		+0.0
20	9-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Skylar Jackson	blk Abby Morreale, Hanna Kaczynska	+0.0
21	9-12	MANHAT	YALE×4	Kill	Skylar Jackson	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
22	9-13	YALE	YALE×4	Bad set	Emilia Kuzniar		+0.0
23	9-14	YALE	YALE×4	Kill	Gaby Stasys	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
24	9-15	YALE	YALE×4	Kill	Naya Salfiti	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
25	10-15	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
26	10-16	MANHAT	YALE×8	Kill	Gaby Stasys	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
27	10-17	YALE	YALE×8	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
28	10-18	YALE	YALE×8	Attack err	Karsyn Harris	blk Naya Salfiti, Laurece Abraham	+0.0
29	10-19	YALE	YALE×8	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Skylar Jackson	+0.0
30	10-20	YALE	YALE×8	Kill	Ava Poinsett	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
31	10-21	YALE	YALE×8	Bad set	Ori Briger		+0.0
32	10-22	YALE	YALE×8	Kill	Laurece Abraham	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0
33	10-23	YALE	YALE×8	Ace	YALE server	aced Katie Powers	+0.0
34	11-23	YALE	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+0.0
35	11-24	MANHAT	YALE	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
36	11-25	YALE	YALE	Kill	Isabel Patterson	set Bethanie Wu	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.