Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Harvard def. Yale 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Yale 78.8% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 3:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Harvard beat visiting Yale 3-2 (25-18, 11-25, 11-25, 25-23, 15-7) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Bridget Egan and Sofia Rossi led Harvard with 10 kills each; Yale's Betsy Goodenow had a match-high 25.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set12345Sets
YALE1825252372
HARV25111125153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: Harvard, a 21% pick, over Yale.

The biggest single-rally swing was 12.5 points, and Yale's high was 88% in Set 3. The numbers below are where it was won. Pre-match, Yale was RallyIQ's 79% pick.

The gap was spread thin: nothing reached the thresholds on its own.

Harvard above 50Yale belowMax swing 12.5%

YaleHarvard

Hitting
Yale .229·Harvard .211
Aces
Yale 10·Harvard 3
Serve err
Yale 11·Harvard 9
Blocks
Yale 11·Harvard 100 BS · 22 BA vs 1 BS · 18 BA
Digs
Yale 69·Harvard 75

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Harvard above 50 · Yale below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+12.5% HARVrally 185 · set 5

Biggest swing: 12.5% to Harvard — set 4, YALE 23-25 HARV. Bridget Egan stuffed by Masina Ogbechie & Riley Resmer. HARV win probability 25% → 37%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

YALE 78.7%21.3% HARV

Yale wins

3-0
30.3%
3-1
29.8%
3-2
18.6%

Harvard wins

3-0
3.5%
3-1
7.1%
3-2
10.6%
YALE break %
46.9% vs this opp
HARV break %
40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Bridget Egan stuffed by Masina Ogbechie & Riley Resmer

    Set 4 · YALE 23-25 HARV · HARV 25% → 37%

  2. 02
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+10.8%

    Point Harvard (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 5 · YALE 4-6 HARV · HARV 47% → 58%

  3. 03
    Sofia RossiKill+10.8%

    Kill by Sofia Rossi (set by Catlin Shao)

    Set 5 · YALE 4-7 HARV · HARV 58% → 69%

  4. 04
    HarvardService error+9.9%

    Harvard service error

    Set 5 · YALE 4-8 HARV · HARV 69% → 79%

  5. 05
    HarvardService error+9.0%

    Harvard service error

    Set 5 · YALE 0-2 HARV · HARV 44% → 53%

  6. 06
    Ava PoinsettKill+8.4%

    Kill by Ava Poinsett

    Set 5 · YALE 2-2 HARV · YALE 53% → 62%

  7. 07
    Sofia RossiKill+8.3%

    Kill by Sofia Rossi (set by Catlin Shao)

    Set 5 · YALE 4-9 HARV · HARV 79% → 87%

  8. 08
    Bridget EganKill+7.9%

    Kill by Bridget Egan (set by Catlin Shao)

    Set 5 · YALE 4-5 HARV · HARV 39% → 47%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Yaleaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
525550.40001212102127
510737.081133110010.513.5
57119.31622100073.512.5
54013.308414012004210
56216.250000200428
1014-.250100100000
54418.000000000426
5000–4022020000
11Yuri ParkL/DS
5000–0031100000
1000–000000000
Team totals5620157.2294910116930221198
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
510431.194113133010.511.5
58216.37510010132.510.5
57017.4120022006310
56320.150000200217
53031.0002310600004
53321.000102123010.53.5
55722-.09100040052.57.5
5103.33320111100002
5000–101200000
5000–4001930000
410219.4210002100010
1000–000100000
Team totals5321152.211513975101181087

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Yale vs Harvard

Season series · Harvard leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 10 YALE · HARV 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 YALEHARV 3

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 10 YALEHARV 2

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 6 YALEHARV 2

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 4 YALEHARV 4

Set 5

7-15

Longest run 2 YALEHARV 6

Bars above the line = Harvard leads, below = Yale leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Yale

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%6/11
64%7/11
2
86%6/7
33%3/9
3
75%6/8
0%0/6
4
63%5/8
78%18/23
5
57%4/7
60%6/10
6
43%3/7
50%4/8
All
63%30/48
57%38/67

Harvard

SlotSideout %Break %
1
86%6/7
55%6/11
2
75%6/8
0%0/6
3
50%6/12
33%3/9
4
18%4/22
33%3/9
5
67%4/6
43%3/7
6
25%3/12
50%3/6
All
43%29/67
38%18/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#YALE-HARVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1HARVHARVAttack errIsabel Patterson+1.9
20-2HARVHARVAceHarvardaced Arya Jue+2.0
31-2HARVYALEAttack errRyleigh Patterson+1.4
41-3YALEHARVKillSophia Weiset Bridget Egan+1.6
52-3HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.5
62-4YALEHARV×3Serve errYale+1.7
72-5HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+2.2
82-6HARVHARV×3BlockedAva Poinsettblk Ali Farquhar, Riley Resmer+2.2
93-6HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.5
104-6YALEYALEAceYaleaced Kayla Nwabueze+2.0
114-7YALEHARVKillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+1.8
125-7HARVYALE×4Serve errHarvard+1.6
136-7YALEYALE×4KillBetsy Goodenowset Arya Jue+2.1
147-7YALEYALE×4AceYaleaced Yvette Easton+2.1
158-7YALEYALE×4KillKalyssa Taggartset Ava Poinsett+2.0
168-8YALEHARV×3KillCatlin Shaoset Yvette Easton+1.7
178-9HARVHARV×3KillBridget Eganset Yvette Easton+2.4
188-10HARVHARV×3KillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao+2.5
199-10HARVYALEKillGaby Stasysset Kalyssa Taggart+1.8
209-11YALEHARVServe errYale+2.1
219-12HARVHARVAttack errAva Poinsett+2.7
2210-12HARVYALE×4Serve errHarvard+1.8
2311-12YALEYALE×4KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+2.5
2412-12YALEYALE×4BlockedRyleigh Pattersonblk Laurece Abraham, Betsy Goodenow+2.5
2513-12YALEYALE×4KillKalyssa Taggartset Isabel Patterson+2.5
2613-13YALEHARV×3KillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.0
2713-14HARVHARV×3KillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+2.9
2813-15HARVHARV×3KillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+3.1
2914-15HARVYALEKillLaurece Abrahamset Kalyssa Taggart+2.1
3014-16YALEHARVKillBridget Egan+2.5
3115-16HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+2.2
3215-17YALEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+2.7
3316-17HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+2.3
3416-18YALEHARV×3KillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+2.9
3516-19HARVHARV×3AceHarvardaced Arya Jue+3.6
3616-20HARVHARV×3Attack errAva Poinsett+3.1
3717-20HARVYALEBlockedKayla Nwabuezeblk Gaby Stasys, Kalyssa Taggart+1.6
3817-21YALEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.5
3917-22HARVHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.3
4018-22HARVYALEKillGaby Stasysset Kalyssa Taggart+0.9
4118-23YALEHARV×3KillBridget Eganset Catlin Shao+1.6
4218-24HARVHARV×3KillRyleigh Patterson+0.9
4318-25HARVHARV×3BlockedBetsy Goodenowblk Ryleigh Patterson, Bridget Egan+0.2
Set 2
10-1YALEHARVServe errYale+2.2
21-1HARVYALE×3Bad setSophia Wei+2.0
32-1YALEYALE×3KillAva Poinsettset Arya Jue+2.5
43-1YALEYALE×3KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+2.4
53-2YALEHARVServe errArya Jue+1.9
64-2HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.8
74-3YALEHARVServe errBetsy Goodenow+1.9
85-3HARVYALE×10KillAva Poinsettset Kalyssa Taggart+1.9
96-3YALEYALE×10Attack errKayla Nwabueze+2.2
107-3YALEYALE×10Attack errMasina Ogbechie+1.9
118-3YALEYALE×10KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.6
129-3YALEYALE×10Attack errMasina Ogbechie+1.3
1310-3YALEYALE×10AceYaleaced Yvette Easton+1.0
1411-3YALEYALE×10KillGaby Stasysset Kalyssa Taggart+0.7
1512-3YALEYALE×10KillKalyssa Taggartset Catlin Shao+0.5
1613-3YALEYALE×10KillGaby Stasysset Kalyssa Taggart+0.3
1714-3YALEYALE×10KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+0.2
1814-4YALEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Yvette Easton+0.1
1915-4HARVYALEKillSkylar Jacksonset Kalyssa Taggart+0.1
2015-5YALEHARVKillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao+0.1
2116-5HARVYALE×3Bad setCatlin Shao+0.1
2217-5YALEYALE×3Attack errBridget Egan+0.1
2318-5YALEYALE×3KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart·
2418-6YALEHARVBlockedLaurece Abrahamblk Ryleigh Patterson, Masina Ogbechie·
2518-7HARVHARVAttack errBetsy Goodenow·
2619-7HARVYALEBlockedBridget Eganblk Betsy Goodenow, Laurece Abraham·
2719-8YALEHARVKillBridget Eganset Sophia Wei·
2820-8HARVYALEServe errHarvard·
2920-9YALEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei·
3020-10HARVHARVKillAli Farquharset Jordan Shelor·
3121-10HARVYALEKillAva Poinsettset Gaby Stasys·
3221-11YALEHARVKillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei·
3322-11HARVYALE×4KillAva Poinsettset Kalyssa Taggart·
3423-11YALEYALE×4KillGaby Stasysset Kalyssa Taggart·
3524-11YALEYALE×4AceYaleaced Bridget Egan·
3625-11YALEYALE×4BlockedMasina Ogbechieblk Gaby Stasys, Skylar Jackson·
Set 3
10-1HARVHARVKillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+2.8
21-1HARVYALEKillSkylar Jacksonset Kalyssa Taggart+2.1
32-1YALEYALEAttack errAli Farquhar+2.6
42-2YALEHARVKillBridget Eganset Sophia Wei+2.1
53-2HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+2.0
63-3YALEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+2.2
74-3HARVYALEServe errHarvard+2.1
84-4YALEHARVBlockedBetsy Goodenowblk Kayla Nwabueze, Riley Resmer+2.2
95-4HARVYALE×3KillAva Poinsettset Kalyssa Taggart+2.1
106-4YALEYALE×3BlockedKayla Nwabuezeblk Gaby Stasys, Kalyssa Taggart+2.6
117-4YALEYALE×3KillKalyssa Taggart+2.3
127-5YALEHARVServe errAva Poinsett+1.8
138-5HARVYALE×3Attack errBridget Egan+1.8
149-5YALEYALE×3AceYaleaced Bridget Egan+2.1
1510-5YALEYALE×3KillLaurece Abraham+1.7
1610-6YALEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.2
1711-6HARVYALE×5KillLaurece Abrahamset Kalyssa Taggart+1.3
1812-6YALEYALE×5Attack errMasina Ogbechie+1.4
1913-6YALEYALE×5AceYaleaced Kayla Nwabueze+1.0
2014-6YALEYALE×5AceYaleaced Yvette Easton+0.7
2115-6YALEYALE×5AceYaleaced Kayla Nwabueze+0.4
2215-7YALEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+0.2
2316-7HARVYALEBlockedAli Farquharblk Skylar Jackson, Laurece Abraham+0.3
2416-8YALEHARVKillSophia Weiset Yvette Easton+0.2
2517-8HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+0.3
2617-9YALEHARVBlockedGaby Stasysblk Ryleigh Patterson+0.2
2718-9HARVYALE×6KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+0.3
2819-9YALEYALE×6BlockedAli Farquharblk Ava Poinsett, Gaby Stasys+0.2
2920-9YALEYALE×6KillGaby Stasysset Kalyssa Taggart+0.1
3021-9YALEYALE×6KillAva Poinsettset Kalyssa Taggart·
3122-9YALEYALE×6Attack errSofia Rossi·
3223-9YALEYALE×6KillAva Poinsettset Kalyssa Taggart·
3323-10YALEHARVServe errBetsy Goodenow·
3423-11HARVHARVAttack errAva Poinsett·
3524-11HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart·
3625-11YALEYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart·
Set 4
10-1YALEHARVServe errYuri Park+1.8
20-2HARVHARVKillBridget Eganset Sophia Wei+2.4
31-2HARVYALEServe errHarvard+1.7
41-3YALEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+1.9
52-3HARVYALEKillAva Poinsettset Arya Jue+1.8
62-4YALEHARV×4KillSophia Weiset Kayla Nwabueze+2.0
72-5HARVHARV×4BlockedAva Poinsettblk Masina Ogbechie, Riley Resmer+2.7
82-6HARVHARV×4KillBridget Eganset Catlin Shao+2.7
92-7HARVHARV×4KillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao+2.6
103-7HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.7
113-8YALEHARVKillBridget Eganset Catlin Shao+2.1
123-9HARVHARVAceBridget Eganaced Betsy Goodenow+2.5
134-9HARVYALEBlockedMasina Ogbechieblk Gaby Stasys, Skylar Jackson+1.5
144-10YALEHARV×3KillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao+1.9
154-11HARVHARV×3Attack errLaurece Abraham+2.2
164-12HARVHARV×3Attack errSkylar Jackson+1.8
175-12HARVYALEServe errHarvard+1.0
185-13YALEHARVAttack errBetsy Goodenow+1.4
196-13HARVYALEKillLaurece Abrahamset Kalyssa Taggart+0.9
206-14YALEHARVServe errYuri Park+1.4
217-14HARVYALE×3KillBetsy Goodenowset Arya Jue+0.9
228-14YALEYALE×3KillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.5
239-14YALEYALE×3KillGaby Stasys+1.9
249-15YALEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+2.0
2510-15HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+1.4
2610-16YALEHARVKillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+2.0
2711-16HARVYALE×4KillAva Poinsettset Kalyssa Taggart+1.3
2812-16YALEYALE×4KillSkylar Jacksonset Kalyssa Taggart+2.2
2913-16YALEYALE×4KillSkylar Jacksonset Kalyssa Taggart+2.7
3014-16YALEYALE×4Attack errBridget Egan+3.1
3114-17YALEHARVServe errAva Poinsett+3.1
3215-17HARVYALE×3Serve errHarvard+2.5
3316-17YALE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
3417-17YALEYALE×3KillBetsy Goodenowset Gaby Stasys+3.9
3517-18YALEHARVServe errGaby Stasys+3.4
3617-19HARVHARVKillSofia Rossiset Ryleigh Patterson+4.7
3718-19HARVYALEAttack errMasina Ogbechie+3.1
3819-19YALEYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+4.6
3919-20YALEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+4.1
4020-20HARVYALEKillLaurece Abrahamset Kalyssa Taggart+3.8
4120-21YALEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+4.5
4221-21HARVYALEKillLaurece Abrahamset Kalyssa Taggart+4.2
4321-22YALEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+5.2
4421-23HARV
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+7.0
4522-23HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+3.8
4623-23YALEYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+7.5
4723-24YALEHARVKillBridget Eganset Sophia Wei+7.9
4823-25HARVHARVBlockedBridget Eganblk Masina Ogbechie, Riley Resmer+12.5
Set 5
10-1YALEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+6.6
20-2HARVHARVServe errHarvard+9.0
31-2HARVYALEServe errHarvard+6.3
42-2YALEYALEKillAva Poinsett+8.4
52-3YALEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+7.2
63-3HARVYALEKillBetsy Goodenowset Kalyssa Taggart+6.7
73-4YALEHARVKillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+7.5
84-4HARVYALEAttack errMasina Ogbechie+7.0
94-5YALEHARV×6KillBridget Eganset Catlin Shao+7.9
104-6HARV
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+10.8
114-7HARVHARV×6KillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+10.8
124-8HARVHARV×6Serve errHarvard+9.9
134-9HARVHARV×6KillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+8.3
144-10HARVHARV×6KillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+6.1
155-10HARVYALEAttack errSofia Rossi+2.7
165-11YALEHARV×3KillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+4.4
175-12HARV
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.3
185-13HARVHARV×3KillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.5
196-13HARVYALEServe errHarvard+0.3
207-13YALE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
217-14YALEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.3
227-15HARVHARVKillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Yale first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).