FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Cal Poly def. Sacramento St. 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Cal Poly 79.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 8:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Cal Poly won at Sacramento St. 3-0 (25-12, 25-15, 25-16) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Cal Poly's Emma Fredrick led with 17 kills.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set123Sets
CALPLY2525253
SAC ST1215160

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Emma Fredrick hit .625 with 17 kills as Cal Poly rolled past Sacramento St.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.8 points, and Sacramento St.'s high was 22% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Cal Poly went in as RallyIQ's 80% pick.

Cal PolySacramento St.
  • Break %+26.3 pts
    64.938.6

    On serve: 48/74 against 17/44 (Sacramento St. sideout 35.1%).

  • Hitting+.354
    .405.051

    Kills and errors: 42–8 vs 25–20.

  • Longest run+4
    84

    From 10–10 in the second set, Cal Poly scored 8 straight to lead 18–10. The set finished 25–15.

Sacramento St. above 50Cal Poly belowMax swing 1.8%

Cal PolySacramento St.

Aces
Cal Poly 5·Sacramento St. 3
Serve err
Cal Poly 6·Sacramento St. 6
Blocks
Cal Poly 9·Sacramento St. 50 BS · 18 BA vs 0 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Cal Poly 44·Sacramento St. 31

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Sacramento St. above 50 · Cal Poly below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+1.8% CALPLYrally 118 · set 3

Biggest swing: 1.8% to Cal Poly — set 1, CALPLY 2-1 SAC ST. Kill by Kendall Beshear (set by Elif Hurriyet). SAC ST win probability 21% → 19%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CALPLY 85.2%14.8% SAC ST

Cal Poly wins

3-0
37.4%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.5%

Sacramento St. wins

3-0
2.2%
3-1
4.7%
3-2
7.9%
CALPLY break %
43.9% vs this opp
SAC ST break %
36.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Kendall Beshear (set by Elif Hurriyet)

    Set 1 · CALPLY 2-1 SAC ST · CALPLY 79% → 81%

  2. 02
    Breklyn PullingAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Breklyn Pulling

    Set 2 · CALPLY 9-9 SAC ST · SAC ST 10% → 11%

  3. 03

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 1 · CALPLY 5-4 SAC ST · SAC ST 16% → 18%

  4. 04
    Mia MolnarAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Mia Molnar

    Set 2 · CALPLY 12-10 SAC ST · CALPLY 90% → 91%

  5. 05

    Keonahi'ilani Solaita stuffed by Kendall Beshear & Charlotte Kelly

    Set 1 · CALPLY 3-1 SAC ST · CALPLY 81% → 83%

  6. 06
    Skyler GartinKill+1.6%

    Kill by Skyler Gartin (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 1 · CALPLY 11-9 SAC ST · SAC ST 15% → 16%

  7. 07
    Emma FredrickKill+1.6%

    Kill by Emma Fredrick (set by Maren O'Farrell)

    Set 1 · CALPLY 7-4 SAC ST · CALPLY 83% → 85%

  8. 08
    Nikola GamlinKill+1.5%

    Kill by Nikola Gamlin

    Set 1 · CALPLY 8-6 SAC ST · SAC ST 15% → 16%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
317224.6250108002119
312332.2811137102114
35010.50000030073.58.5
3328.125000300214
3001.0003320600213
3000–002400000
3519.44400000031.56.5
3000–010300001
3000–100800000
3000–201200000
Team totals42884.4053756443018975
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
371032-.094001400218
34114.21401020010.55.5
35224.125001420005
3328.125000200425
3001.0001600600000
1000–000110000
34312.08300000010.54.5
3116.000011200213
3000–302610000
2112.000000000001
2000–411400001
Team totals252099.0512336315010543

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Cal Poly vs Sacramento St.

Season series · Cal Poly leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 CALPLY · SAC ST 4

Set 1

25-12

Longest run 7 CALPLYSAC ST 2

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 8 CALPLYSAC ST 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 8 CALPLYSAC ST 3

Bars above the line = Sacramento St. leads, below = Cal Poly leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cal Poly

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%6/9
72%13/18
2
75%6/8
65%11/17
3
71%5/7
58%7/12
4
50%4/8
71%10/14
5
100%3/3
67%6/9
6
33%3/9
25%1/4
All
61%27/44
65%48/74

Sacramento St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
23%6/26
50%4/8
2
55%6/11
25%2/8
3
38%5/13
25%2/8
4
19%3/16
44%4/9
5
75%3/4
40%2/5
6
75%3/4
50%3/6
All
35%26/74
39%17/44

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

118 rallies

#CALPLY-SAC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CALPLYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.3
21-1SAC STCALPLY×3Attack errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+1.2
32-1CALPLYCALPLY×3KillKendall Beshearset Elif Hurriyet+1.8
43-1CALPLYCALPLY×3BlockedKeonahi'ilani Solaitablk Kendall Beshear, Charlotte Kelly+1.7
53-2CALPLYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+1.1
64-2SAC STCALPLYKillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+1.1
75-2CALPLYCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+1.5
85-3CALPLYSAC STServe errCal Poly+0.9
95-4SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
106-4SAC STCALPLY×3BlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Kayla Murdoch, Charlotte Kelly+1.1
117-4CALPLYCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrickset Maren O'Farrell+1.6
128-4CALPLYCALPLY×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+1.3
138-5CALPLYSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.8
148-6SAC STSAC STKillNikola Gamlin+1.5
159-6SAC STCALPLYKillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury+1.1
169-7CALPLYSAC STServe errCal Poly+1.0
1710-7SAC STCALPLYKillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+1.1
1811-7CALPLYCALPLYAceCal Polyaced Amy Ito+1.4
1911-8CALPLYSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+0.8
2011-9SAC STSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+1.6
2112-9SAC STCALPLY×7Serve errSacramento St.+1.2
2213-9CALPLYCALPLY×7KillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+1.5
2314-9CALPLYCALPLY×7KillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+1.1
2415-9CALPLYCALPLY×7KillKendall Beshear+0.8
2516-9CALPLYCALPLY×7KillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.5
2617-9CALPLYCALPLY×7KillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+0.3
2718-9CALPLYCALPLY×7Attack errSkyler Gartin+0.2
2818-10CALPLYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
2919-10SAC STCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.1
3020-10CALPLYCALPLY×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.1
3121-10CALPLYCALPLY×3AceCal Polyaced Keonahi'ilani Solaita·
3221-11CALPLYSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert·
3321-12SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.·
3422-12SAC STCALPLY×4Serve errSacramento St.·
3523-12CALPLYCALPLY×4AceCal Poly·
3624-12CALPLYCALPLY×4Attack errMia Molnar·
3725-12CALPLYCALPLY×4KillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury·
Set 2
10-1SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaita+1.5
21-1SAC STCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.9
31-2CALPLYSAC STAttack errKendall Beshear+1.0
42-2SAC STCALPLYServe errSacramento St.+0.9
52-3CALPLYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.1
63-3SAC STCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+1.0
74-3CALPLYCALPLYKillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+1.5
84-4CALPLYSAC STServe errCal Poly+1.0
95-4SAC STCALPLY×4KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+0.9
106-4CALPLYCALPLY×4BlockedCharlee Leppblk Breklyn Pulling, Emma Fredrick+1.4
117-4CALPLYCALPLY×4KillBreklyn Pullingset Alexis Haury+1.2
128-4CALPLYCALPLY×4KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+1.0
138-5CALPLYSAC STServe errCal Poly+0.6
149-5SAC STCALPLYServe errSacramento St.+0.7
159-6CALPLYSAC ST×4KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Reese Ampi+0.6
169-7SAC STSAC ST×4KillSkyler Gartinset Kaylee Piepho+1.2
179-8SAC STSAC ST×4KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Kaylee Piepho+1.5
189-9SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errBreklyn Pulling+1.7
1910-9SAC STCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+1.1
2010-10CALPLYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Reese Ampi+1.2
2111-10SAC STCALPLY×8KillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+1.2
2212-10CALPLYCALPLY×8Attack errMia Molnar+1.7
2313-10CALPLYCALPLY×8AceCal Polyaced Reese Ampi+1.4
2414-10CALPLYCALPLY×8Attack errVictoria Marthaler+1.2
2515-10CALPLYCALPLY×8KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.9
2616-10CALPLYCALPLY×8BlockedMia Molnarblk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch+0.6
2717-10CALPLYCALPLY×8KillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury+0.4
2818-10CALPLYCALPLY×8Bad setMakenna Wiepert+0.2
2918-11CALPLYSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
3019-11SAC STCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.1
3120-11CALPLYCALPLYKillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury+0.1
3220-12CALPLYSAC STServe errCal Poly·
3321-12SAC STCALPLYBlockedNikola Gamlinblk Emma Fredrick, Charlotte Kelly·
3422-12CALPLYCALPLYAttack errVictoria Marthaler·
3522-13CALPLYSAC ST×3KillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert·
3622-14SAC STSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi·
3722-15SAC STSAC ST×3AceSacramento St.aced Kendall Beshear·
3823-15SAC STCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury·
3924-15CALPLYCALPLY×3BlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Breklyn Pulling, Alexis Haury·
4025-15CALPLYCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrick·
Set 3
10-1CALPLYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.5
21-1SAC STCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.5
31-2CALPLYSAC STBlockedKayla Murdochblk Victoria Marthaler, Nikola Gamlin+0.5
41-3SAC STSAC STBlockedKendall Beshearblk Nikola Gamlin, Charlee Lepp+0.8
52-3SAC STCALPLYServe errSacramento St.+0.5
62-4CALPLYSAC STServe errCal Poly+0.6
73-4SAC STCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrickset Kendall Beshear+0.5
84-4CALPLYCALPLY×3Attack errNikola Gamlin+0.8
95-4CALPLYCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.8
105-5CALPLYSAC STKillCharlee Leppset Kaylee Piepho+0.5
115-6SAC STSAC STAttack errEmma Fredrick+0.9
126-6SAC STCALPLYServe errSacramento St.+0.5
137-6CALPLYCALPLYBad setKaylee Piepho+0.8
147-7CALPLYSAC STBad setAlexis Haury+0.5
158-7SAC STCALPLYKillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.5
168-8CALPLYSAC ST×3KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.6
178-9SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedBreklyn Pullingblk Skyler Gartin, Victoria Marthaler+0.9
188-10SAC STSAC ST×3KillAddy Scheitlinset Makenna Wiepert+1.0
199-10SAC STCALPLY×8KillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.6
2010-10CALPLYCALPLY×8BlockedAddy Scheitlinblk Charlotte Kelly, Kendall Beshear+1.0
2111-10CALPLYCALPLY×8AceCal Polyaced Keonahi'ilani Solaita+0.9
2212-10CALPLYCALPLY×8KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.8
2313-10CALPLYCALPLY×8Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.7
2414-10CALPLYCALPLY×8KillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.6
2515-10CALPLYCALPLY×8KillKendall Beshearset Alexis Haury+0.4
2616-10CALPLYCALPLY×8Attack errVictoria Marthaler+0.3
2716-11CALPLYSAC ST×3KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.1
2816-12SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedKendall Beshearblk Mia Molnar, Nikola Gamlin+0.3
2916-13SAC STSAC ST×3AceSacramento St.+0.5
3017-13SAC STCALPLYBlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Alexis Haury, Charlotte Kelly+0.4
3117-14CALPLYSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+0.3
3218-14SAC STCALPLY×3KillCharlotte Kellyset Alexis Haury+0.4
3319-14CALPLYCALPLY×3KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.4
3420-14CALPLYCALPLY×3BlockedVictoria Marthalerblk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch+0.2
3520-15CALPLYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Kaylee Piepho+0.1
3620-16SAC STSAC STBlockedEmma Fredrickblk Nikola Gamlin, Charlee Lepp+0.2
3721-16SAC STCALPLY×5KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.2
3822-16CALPLYCALPLY×5KillKayla Murdochset Alexis Haury+0.2
3923-16CALPLYCALPLY×5KillEmma Fredrickset Alexis Haury+0.1
4024-16CALPLYCALPLY×5KillEmma Fredrickset Kaylee Piepho·
4125-16CALPLYCALPLY×5KillEmma Fredrickset Maren O'Farrell·

Score shown after each rally, Cal Poly first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).