Sacramento State vs Cal Poly Prediction

ScheduledSat, Nov 14, 2026ESPN+

–:–

Sacramento St. (14-11) at Cal Poly (17-7), Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+. RallyIQ gives Cal Poly a 92% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, Cal Poly won 3-0 on Oct 1.

Data through Nov 10, 6:20 PM CT

Match prediction

SAC ST 7.7%92.3% CALPLY

Sacramento St. wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.5%

Cal Poly wins

3-0

48.8%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.4%

SAC ST break %: 34.7% vs this opp
CALPLY break %: 45.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.