Long Beach State vs Cal Poly Prediction

ScheduledFri, Nov 6, 2026ESPN+

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Long Beach St. (18-4) at Cal Poly (16-6), Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+. RallyIQ gives Cal Poly a 71% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, Cal Poly won 3-0 on Oct 10.

Data through Nov 3, 9:10 PM CT

Match prediction

LBSU 28.9%71.1% CALPLY

Long Beach St. wins

3-0

5.4%

3-1

10.1%

3-2

13.4%

Cal Poly wins

3-0

24.0%

3-1

27.3%

3-2

19.8%

LBSU break %: 38.2% vs this opp
CALPLY break %: 42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.