Cal Poly vs UC Santa Barbara Volleyball: Cal Poly Wins 3-0

FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026ESPNU

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Cal Poly 79.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 9:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Cal Poly won at UC Santa Barbara 3-0 (25-19, 25-13, 25-17) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. Cal Poly's Emma Fredrick led with 14 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 9:50 PM CT · final Oct 22

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CALPLY	25	25	25	3
UCSB	19	13	17	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

14 kills in 3 sets for Emma Fredrick. Cal Poly swept UC Santa Barbara.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.8 points, and UC Santa Barbara's high was 20% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Cal Poly at 80%.

Cal PolyUC Santa Barbara

Break %+23.4 pts
55.432.0
Points won on own serve: 41 of 74 vs 16 of 50. UC Santa Barbara sided out 44.6% of the time.
Hitting+.299
.384.085
Kills and errors: 38–10 vs 31–23.
Longest run+7
114
Up 7–4 in the second set, Cal Poly scored 11 straight to make it 18–4. The set finished 25–13.

UC Santa Barbara above 50Cal Poly belowMax swing 1.8%

Cal PolyUC Santa Barbara

Aces: Cal Poly 4·UC Santa Barbara 4
Serve err: Cal Poly 2·UC Santa Barbara 7
Blocks: Cal Poly 9·UC Santa Barbara 33 BS · 12 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Cal Poly 32·UC Santa Barbara 21

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UC Santa Barbara above 50 · Cal Poly below

Biggest swing: 1.8% to UC Santa Barbara — set 1, CALPLY 18-16 UCSB. Attack error by Kayla Murdoch. UCSB win probability 14% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CALPLY 81.8%18.2% UCSB

Cal Poly wins

3-0

33.3%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

17.8%

UC Santa Barbara wins

3-0

2.9%

3-1

6.0%

3-2

9.4%

CALPLY break %: 43.3% vs this opp
UCSB break %: 36.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kayla MurdochAttack error+1.8%
Attack error by Kayla Murdoch
Set 1 · CALPLY 18-16 UCSB · UCSB 14% → 15%
02
Kayla MurdochAttack error+1.8%
Attack error by Kayla Murdoch
Set 1 · CALPLY 16-14 UCSB · UCSB 14% → 16%
03
Auburn TomkinsonAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Auburn Tomkinson
Set 1 · CALPLY 1-0 UCSB · CALPLY 80% → 82%
04
Cal PolyAce+1.7%
Cal Poly ace
Set 1 · CALPLY 4-2 UCSB · CALPLY 81% → 83%
05
Auburn TomkinsonAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Auburn Tomkinson
Set 1 · CALPLY 20-16 UCSB · CALPLY 86% → 88%
06
Gabi MartinezAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Gabi Martinez
Set 1 · CALPLY 18-14 UCSB · CALPLY 86% → 87%
07
Emma McDermottBad set+1.5%
Bad set by Emma McDermott
Set 1 · CALPLY 5-2 UCSB · CALPLY 83% → 85%
08
UC Santa BarbaraService error+1.5%
UC Santa Barbara service error
Set 1 · CALPLY 19-16 UCSB · CALPLY 85% → 86%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Cal Polyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Emma FredrickOH	3	14	5	28	.321	2	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	15
12Breklyn PullingMB	3	13	0	15	.867	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
13Kendall BeshearOH	3	8	0	16	.500	0	1	0	5	1	2	0	2	11
15Charlotte KellyMB	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
16Kayla MurdochOH	3	0	4	5	-.800	0	0	0	2	0	1	3	2.5	2.5
8Alexis HauryS	3	0	0	2	.000	32	1	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
7Noelle VanachtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
21Elif HurriyetL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
53Ella ScottL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Maren O'FarrellL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	10	73	.384	37	4	2	32	4	3	12	9	75

UC Santa Barbarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
18Gabi MartinezOH	3	10	5	25	.200	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	10
1Auburn TomkinsonOPP	3	5	6	18	-.056	1	2	1	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
13Bella MathisMB	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
2Sandrea ThomasMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Milan RexS	3	1	1	3	.000	20	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Kate MartinOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
28Sophia WendlickOH	3	6	3	16	.188	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6
12Avery GibbsOPP	3	3	2	6	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
4Bianca NistorDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Cortni YoungbloodDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
11Ava ZamoraS	2	1	0	1	1.000	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	3
33Emma McDermottOH	1	1	2	9	-.111	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
14Danica RachOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
19Ayva OstovarS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	23	94	.085	28	4	7	21	4	6	3	49

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Cal Poly vs UC Santa Barbara

Season series · Cal Poly leads 2-0

Thu, Oct 22, 2026Cal Poly at UC Santa Barbara · Cal Poly won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 24, 2026UC Santa Barbara at Cal Poly · Cal Poly won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 11 CALPLY · UCSB 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 CALPLYUCSB 4

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 11 CALPLYUCSB 2

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 CALPLYUCSB 3

Bars above the line = UC Santa Barbara leads, below = Cal Poly leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cal Poly

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%2/3	0%0/1
2	67%2/3	50%2/4
3	100%2/2	33%1/3
4	50%2/4	33%1/3
5	100%1/1	91%10/11
6	100%1/1	50%1/2
All	71%10/14	63%15/24

UC Santa Barbara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%2/4	33%1/3
2	67%2/3	33%1/3
3	67%2/3	0%0/2
4	9%1/11	50%2/4
5	50%1/2	0%0/1
6	100%1/1	0%0/1
All	38%9/24	29%4/14

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

124 rallies

#	CALPLY-UCSB	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+1.7
2–3	2-1		CALPLY · UCSB	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
4	2-2	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.2
5	3-2	UCSB	CALPLY×5	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		+1.2
6	4-2	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Ace	Cal Poly		+1.7
7	5-2	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Bad set	Emma McDermott		+1.5
8	6-2	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury*	+1.3
9	7-2	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
10	7-3	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.6
11	8-3	UCSB	CALPLY×4	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
12	9-3	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Blocked	Emma McDermott	blk Breklyn Pulling, Alexis Haury	+0.8
13	10-3	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Noelle Vanacht	+0.6
14	11-3	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Emma McDermott		+0.4
15	11-4	CALPLY	UCSB×4	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.2
16	11-5	UCSB	UCSB×4	Attack err	Emma McDermott		+0.4
17	11-6	UCSB	UCSB×4	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Ava Zamora	+0.6
18	11-7	UCSB	UCSB×4	Ace	Ava Zamora		+0.9
19	12-7	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
20	13-7	CALPLY	CALPLY	Blocked	Avery Gibbs	blk Charlotte Kelly, Alexis Haury	+0.8
21	13-8	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Ava Zamora		+0.4
22	13-9	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly		+0.9
23	14-9	UCSB	CALPLY	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		+0.7
24	15-9	CALPLY	CALPLY	Blocked	Gabi Martinez	blk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch	+0.8
25	15-10	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Ava Zamora	+0.4
26	15-11	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Kate Martin	+0.9
27	16-11	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
28	16-12	CALPLY	UCSB×3	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Ava Zamora	+0.6
29	16-13	UCSB	UCSB×3	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.2
30	16-14	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+1.8
31	17-14	UCSB	CALPLY	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+1.4
32	18-14	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+1.6
33	18-15	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Cortni Youngblood	+0.8
34	18-16	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+1.8
35	19-16	UCSB	CALPLY×3	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		+1.5
36	20-16	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+1.7
37	21-16	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
38	21-17	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Milan Rex	+0.4
39	22-17	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
40	23-17	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.4
41	23-18	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+0.1
42	24-18	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Emma Fredrick	+0.2
43	24-19	CALPLY	UCSB	Serve err	Cal Poly		·
44	25-19	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	UCSB	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
2	2-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
3	3-0	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Noelle Vanacht	+1.1
4	3-1	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sandrea Thomas	set Milan Rex	+0.7
5	4-1	UCSB	CALPLY	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		+0.7
6	5-1	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
7	5-2	CALPLY	UCSB	Serve err	Cal Poly		+0.6
8	6-2	UCSB	CALPLY	Blocked	Auburn Tomkinson	blk Kendall Beshear	+0.6
9	7-2	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Bella Mathis		+0.8
10	7-3	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.5
11	7-4	UCSB	UCSB	Ace	Ava Zamora		+0.9
12	8-4	UCSB	CALPLY×11	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		+0.6
13	9-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
14	10-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Blocked	Sophia Wendlick	blk Kayla Murdoch	+0.6
15	11-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick		+0.4
16	12-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Attack err	Bella Mathis		+0.3
17	13-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Blocked	Avery Gibbs	blk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch	+0.2
18	14-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Bad set	Ayva Ostovar		+0.1
19	15-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
20	16-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	·
21	17-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		·
22	18-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×11	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		·
23	18-5	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	·
24	19-5	UCSB	CALPLY	Attack err	Milan Rex		·
25	20-5	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	Cal Poly		·
26	20-6	CALPLY	UCSB	Blocked	Emma Fredrick	blk Milan Rex, Bella Mathis	·
27	21-6	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	·
28	21-7	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	·
29	21-8	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		·
30	22-8	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	·
31	22-9	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	·
32	22-10	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick		·
33	23-10	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	·
34	23-11	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Cortni Youngblood	·
35	24-11	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	·
36	24-12	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Milan Rex	·
37	24-13	UCSB	UCSB	Ace	Auburn Tomkinson		·
38	25-13	UCSB	CALPLY	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		·
Set 3
1	0-1	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Auburn Tomkinson	+0.5
2	1-1	UCSB	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
3	2-1	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.7
4	3-1	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
5	3-2	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.4
6	4-2	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
7	4-3	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.4
8	5-3	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
9	5-4	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+0.4
10	6-4	UCSB	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
11	7-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Blocked	Sophia Wendlick	blk Alexis Haury, Charlotte Kelly	+0.6
12	8-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
13	8-5	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+0.3
14	9-5	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
15	9-6	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Sandrea Thomas	set Milan Rex	+0.3
16	10-6	UCSB	CALPLY	Blocked	Gabi Martinez	blk Charlotte Kelly, Kayla Murdoch	+0.3
17	10-7	CALPLY	UCSB×3	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.3
18	10-8	UCSB	UCSB×3	Blocked	Emma Fredrick	blk Bella Mathis, Auburn Tomkinson	+0.6
19	10-9	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+0.7
20	11-9	UCSB	CALPLY	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+0.5
21	11-10	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.5
22	11-11	UCSB	UCSB	Ace	Auburn Tomkinson	aced Kendall Beshear	+0.9
23	12-11	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
24	12-12	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.6
25	13-12	UCSB	CALPLY×6	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
26	14-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Emma Fredrick	+0.9
27	15-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
28	16-12		CALPLY	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.6
29	17-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Attack err	Bianca Nistor		+0.4
30	18-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Bad set	Auburn Tomkinson		+0.3
31	18-13	CALPLY	UCSB	Bad set	Auburn Tomkinson		+0.1
32	19-13	UCSB	CALPLY×3	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.2
33	20-13	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
34	21-13	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Blocked	Sandrea Thomas	blk Kendall Beshear	+0.1
35	21-14	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Danica Rach	set Milan Rex	·
36	22-14	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	·
37	23-14	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	Cal Poly		·
38	23-15	CALPLY	UCSB	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		·
39	24-15	UCSB	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	·
40	24-16	CALPLY	UCSB	Kill	Milan Rex		·
41	24-17	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		·
42	25-17	UCSB	CALPLY	Serve err	UC Santa Barbara		·

Score shown after each rally, Cal Poly first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Cal Poly def. UC Santa Barbara 3–0

14 kills in 3 sets for Emma Fredrick. Cal Poly swept UC Santa Barbara.