Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 29, 2026

Towson def. N.C. A&T 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Towson 56.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 29, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Towson won at N.C. A&T 3-1 (25-22, 25-16, 20-25, 25-18) on Thu, Oct 29, 2026. Towson's Taylor Pagan led with 15 kills, and Peyton Meyer added 11 digs.

Data through · final Oct 29

Set1234Sets
TOWSON252520253
NC A&T221625181

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.481 on 27 swings: Taylor Pagan and Towson edged N.C. A&T.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Towson's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Towson went in as RallyIQ's 56% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Towson 22–22 N.C. A&T

    Towson scored 3 straight to go from 22–22 to a 25–22 lead.

    Towson 56% → 73%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Towson 16–17 N.C. A&T

    6 straight Towson points turned a 16–17 deficit into a 22–17 lead.

    Towson 73% → 99%

N.C. A&T above 50Towson belowMax swing 7.4%

TowsonN.C. A&T

Sideout %
Towson 67.1·N.C. A&T 57.4
Break %
Towson 42.6·N.C. A&T 32.9
Hitting
Towson .294·N.C. A&T .155
Longest run
Towson 6·N.C. A&T 4

Taylor Pagan
15 kills on .481, 17.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

N.C. A&T above 50 · Towson below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.4% TOWSONrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.4% to Towson — set 1, TOWSON 24-22 NC A&T. Attack error by Nicole Ellis. NC A&T win probability 38% → 31%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TOWSON 55.0%45.0% NC A&T

Towson wins

3-0
14.7%
3-1
20.8%
3-2
19.4%

N.C. A&T wins

3-0
10.5%
3-1
16.7%
3-2
17.8%
TOWSON break %
40.8% vs this opp
NC A&T break %
39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Nicole EllisAttack error+7.4%

    Attack error by Nicole Ellis

    Set 1 · TOWSON 24-22 NC A&T · TOWSON 62% → 69%

  2. 02
    Agata ZwierzynskaAttack error+6.8%

    Attack error by Agata Zwierzynska

    Set 1 · TOWSON 22-21 NC A&T · TOWSON 54% → 61%

  3. 03

    Tyne Ross stuffed by Ava Drye & Clara Vorel

    Set 4 · TOWSON 18-17 NC A&T · TOWSON 76% → 82%

  4. 04
    Tyne RossAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Tyne Ross

    Set 4 · TOWSON 19-17 NC A&T · TOWSON 82% → 88%

  5. 05

    Kill by Kirsten Kemper (set by Zariah Winton)

    Set 4 · TOWSON 16-17 NC A&T · NC A&T 22% → 27%

  6. 06
    Addison LeberAttack error+5.5%

    Attack error by Addison Leber

    Set 1 · TOWSON 19-20 NC A&T · NC A&T 44% → 49%

  7. 07
    Taylor PaganKill+5.4%

    Kill by Taylor Pagan (set by Addison Leber)

    Set 1 · TOWSON 23-22 NC A&T · TOWSON 56% → 62%

  8. 08
    Ava DryeKill+5.2%

    Kill by Ava Drye (set by Peyton Meyer)

    Set 4 · TOWSON 16-15 NC A&T · TOWSON 77% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Towsonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415227.48132261010.517.5
48011.7271111012211
48114.5001004004210
47628.036302821018
4000–18001100000
1000–000000000
410424.2500031000010
44210.200000010426
4002.000211120010.51.5
4001.000102900000
4011-1.000200500000
1011-1.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5217119.29450411474212895
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415846.15220351010.515.5
411320.40000220010.511.5
47218.27800020132.59.5
4229.00012110132.56.5
45925-.160210510006
4416.5003701900426
4000–0121310001
4000–001610000
2113.000000000001
2102.500001000001
Team totals4626129.15542411434212881

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Towson vs N.C. A&T

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 TOWSON · NC A&T 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 3 TOWSONNC A&T 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 3 TOWSONNC A&T 2

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 TOWSONNC A&T 4

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 6 TOWSONNC A&T 3

Bars above the line = N.C. A&T leads, below = Towson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Towson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
46%6/13
2
80%8/10
43%6/14
3
70%7/10
13%1/8
4
55%6/11
42%5/12
5
67%6/9
40%4/10
6
60%6/10
54%7/13
All
69%41/59
41%29/70

N.C. A&T

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
22%2/9
2
67%8/12
11%1/9
3
70%7/10
20%2/10
4
60%6/10
45%5/11
5
67%6/9
33%3/9
6
46%6/13
45%5/11
All
59%41/70
31%18/59

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#TOWSON-NC A&TSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NC A&TNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+2.6
20-2NC A&TNC A&TAttack errNatalia Pebenito+2.6
31-2TOWSON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
41-3TOWSONNC A&TAttack errKayla Zanon+1.8
52-3NC A&TTOWSON×3KillMalinah Purcell-Telefoniset Peyton Meyer+1.7
63-3TOWSONTOWSON×3KillNicole Ellisset Kirsten Kemper+2.7
74-3TOWSONTOWSON×3BlockedZariah Wintonblk Ava Drye, Malinah Purcell-Telefoni+2.7
84-4TOWSONNC A&TKillKirsten Kemperset Tyne Ross+1.9
95-4NC A&TTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+1.9
105-5TOWSONNC A&TKillZariah Wintonset Kirsten Kemper+1.9
116-5NC A&TTOWSON×3KillTaylor Paganset Kaitlyn Moran+1.9
127-5TOWSONTOWSON×3AceTowsonaced Charlie Meadoweal+2.8
138-5TOWSONTOWSON×3Attack errTyne Ross+2.6
148-6TOWSONNC A&TBlockedAddison Leberblk Nicole Ellis, Kirsten Kemper+1.6
159-6TOWSON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
1610-6TOWSONTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+2.4
1710-7NC A&T
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
1810-8NC A&TNC A&TAttack errTyne Ross+2.5
1911-8NC A&TTOWSONKillAddison Leberset Kaitlyn Moran+1.9
2011-9TOWSONNC A&T×4KillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+1.7
2111-10NC A&TNC A&T×4Attack errZariah Winton+3.0
2211-11NC A&TNC A&T×4Attack errClara Vorel+3.3
2311-12NC A&TNC A&T×4Serve errN.C. A&T+3.5
2412-12NC A&TTOWSONKillAddison Leber+2.3
2513-12TOWSONTOWSONKillAddison Leberset Kirsten Kemper+3.6
2613-13TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+2.4
2713-14NC A&TNC A&TKillNicole Ellis+3.8
2814-14NC A&TTOWSONAttack errAgata Zwierzynska+2.5
2915-14TOWSONTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+3.9
3015-15TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+2.6
3115-16NC A&TNC A&TKillAva Dryeset Peyton Meyer+4.2
3216-16TOWSON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.8
3316-17TOWSONNC A&TKillZariah Wintonset Kirsten Kemper+3.0
3417-17TOWSON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
3518-17TOWSONTOWSONServe errTowson+4.6
3618-18TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+3.1
3719-18NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+3.4
3819-19TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+3.3
3919-20NC A&TNC A&TAttack errAddison Leber+5.5
4020-20NC A&TTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+3.6
4120-21TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+4.2
4221-21NC A&TTOWSONKillAddison Leberset Peyton Meyer+4.0
4322-21TOWSONTOWSONAttack errAgata Zwierzynska+6.8
4422-22TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+4.5
4523-22NC A&TTOWSON×3KillTaylor Paganset Addison Leber+5.4
4624-22TOWSONTOWSON×3Attack errNicole Ellis+7.4
4725-22TOWSONTOWSON×3KillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+3.9
Set 2
11-0TOWSONTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+2.4
22-0TOWSONTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Kirsten Kemper+2.3
32-1TOWSONNC A&TBad setAva Drye+1.5
43-1NC A&TTOWSONKillMalinah Purcell-Telefoniset Peyton Meyer+1.6
54-1TOWSONTOWSONAceTowsonaced Tyne Ross+2.3
64-2TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+1.4
75-2NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+1.6
86-2TOWSONTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+2.1
96-3TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+1.3
107-3NC A&TTOWSON×3KillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+1.4
118-3TOWSONTOWSON×3AceTowsonaced Zariah Winton+1.9
129-3TOWSONTOWSON×3KillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+1.5
139-4TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+0.8
1410-4NC A&TTOWSONKillAddison Leberset Kaitlyn Moran+1.0
1511-4TOWSONTOWSONBlockedZariah Wintonblk Clara Vorel, Kaitlyn Moran+1.2
1611-5TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+0.6
1712-5NC A&TTOWSONKillAva Dryeset Taylor Pagan+0.8
1813-5TOWSONTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Addison Leber+0.9
1913-6TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+0.4
2013-7NC A&TNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+0.8
2114-7NC A&TTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Peyton Meyer+0.8
2215-7TOWSONTOWSONBlockedTyne Rossblk Malinah Purcell-Telefoni, Ava Drye+0.8
2315-8TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+0.3
2416-8NC A&TTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Peyton Meyer+0.5
2516-9TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+0.3
2617-9NC A&TTOWSONKillMalinah Purcell-Telefoniset Kaitlyn Moran+0.5
2717-10TOWSONNC A&TKillDaja Warrenset Kirsten Kemper+0.3
2818-10NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+0.4
2919-10TOWSONTOWSONKillClara Vorelset Kaitlyn Moran+0.3
3019-11TOWSONNC A&TKillNicole Ellisset Kirsten Kemper+0.1
3119-12NC A&TNC A&TKillMadison Curryset Kirsten Kemper+0.3
3220-12NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+0.3
3320-13TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+0.1
3421-13NC A&TTOWSONKillAddison Leberset Peyton Meyer+0.3
3521-14TOWSONNC A&TBlockedTaylor Paganblk Nicole Ellis, Kirsten Kemper+0.1
3622-14NC A&TTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Peyton Meyer+0.2
3723-14TOWSONTOWSONBad setKirsten Kemper+0.1
3823-15TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson·
3924-15NC A&TTOWSONKillMalinah Purcell-Telefoniset Peyton Meyer·
4024-16TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper·
4125-16NC A&TTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Kaitlyn Moran·
Set 3
10-1NC A&TNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Zariah Winton+1.6
21-1NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+1.0
31-2TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+1.1
42-2NC A&TTOWSONKillMalinah Purcell-Telefoniset Peyton Meyer+1.1
52-3TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+1.1
63-3NC A&TTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Megan Platt+1.1
74-3TOWSONTOWSONKillAddison Leberset Kaitlyn Moran+1.6
84-4TOWSONNC A&T×3KillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+1.1
94-5NC A&TNC A&T×3BlockedAnna Riceblk Nicole Ellis+1.7
104-6NC A&TNC A&T×3Attack errAnna Rice+1.7
115-6NC A&TTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+1.1
126-6TOWSONTOWSONAttack errMadison Curry+1.7
136-7TOWSONNC A&TKillNicole Ellisset Kirsten Kemper+1.2
146-8NC A&TNC A&TAceLuca Radnaiaced Taylor Pagan+1.8
157-8NC A&TTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+1.2
167-9TOWSONNC A&T×4Serve errTowson+1.3
177-10NC A&TNC A&T×4AceZariah Wintonaced Clara Vorel+1.8
187-11NC A&TNC A&T×4Attack errAddison Leber+1.7
197-12NC A&TNC A&T×4BlockedAddison Leberblk Luca Radnai, Kirsten Kemper+1.4
208-12NC A&TTOWSONKillClara Vorelset Peyton Meyer+0.8
218-13TOWSONNC A&TBlockedClara Vorelblk Luca Radnai+1.0
229-13NC A&TTOWSONKillTaylor Paganset Ava Drye+0.8
239-14TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Luca Radnai+1.0
2410-14NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+0.8
2510-15TOWSONNC A&TKillZariah Wintonset Kirsten Kemper+1.0
2611-15NC A&TTOWSONAttack errNicole Ellis+0.7
2711-16TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+1.0
2811-17NC A&TNC A&TBlockedAddison Leberblk Nicole Ellis, Kirsten Kemper+1.1
2912-17NC A&TTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+0.5
3012-18TOWSONNC A&TKillZariah Wintonset Kirsten Kemper+0.7
3113-18NC A&TTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+0.4
3213-19TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+0.7
3314-19NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+0.4
3414-20TOWSONNC A&TKillLuca Radnaiset Kirsten Kemper+0.6
3515-20NC A&TTOWSON×3BlockedTyne Rossblk Clara Vorel, Ava Drye+0.3
3616-20TOWSONTOWSON×3Attack errTyne Ross+0.8
3717-20TOWSONTOWSON×3KillTaylor Paganset Kayla Zanon+1.3
3817-21TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+1.3
3917-22NC A&TNC A&TBlockedTaylor Paganblk Agata Zwierzynska, Luca Radnai+1.2
4018-22NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+0.4
4118-23TOWSONNC A&TKillLuca Radnaiset Kirsten Kemper+0.7
4218-24NC A&TNC A&TAttack errAnna Rice+0.4
4319-24NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T·
4420-24TOWSONTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Taylor Pagan+0.2
4520-25TOWSONNC A&TKillKirsten Kemperset Tyne Ross+0.3
Set 4
10-1TOWSONNC A&TBad setKaitlyn Moran+2.2
21-1NC A&TTOWSONKillAnna Riceset Kaitlyn Moran+2.2
32-1TOWSONTOWSONBlockedLuca Radnaiblk Addison Leber+3.3
42-2TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+2.2
52-3NC A&TNC A&TBad setAnna Rice+3.4
63-3NC A&TTOWSONKillClara Vorelset Kaitlyn Moran+2.3
73-4TOWSONNC A&TServe errTowson+2.4
84-4NC A&TTOWSONKillMalinah Purcell-Telefoniset Kaitlyn Moran+2.4
94-5TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+2.5
105-5NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+2.4
116-5TOWSONTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+3.6
126-6TOWSONNC A&TKillNicole Ellisset Kirsten Kemper+2.5
136-7NC A&TNC A&TKillZariah Wintonset Kirsten Kemper+3.8
147-7NC A&TTOWSONKillAva Dryeset Taylor Pagan+2.5
158-7TOWSONTOWSONKillAva Dryeset Malinah Purcell-Telefoni+3.8
168-8TOWSONNC A&TAttack errAva Drye+2.6
179-8NC A&TTOWSONBad setKirsten Kemper+2.7
189-9TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kaitlyn Moran+2.7
1910-9NC A&TTOWSON×3KillTaylor Paganset Kaitlyn Moran+2.8
2011-9TOWSONTOWSON×3AceTowsonaced Valeria Estrada+4.0
2112-9TOWSONTOWSON×3Attack errTyne Ross+3.7
2212-10TOWSONNC A&TKillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+2.2
2313-10NC A&TTOWSONKillClara Vorelset Kaitlyn Moran+2.6
2413-11TOWSONNC A&T×3KillAgata Zwierzynskaset Kirsten Kemper+2.3
2513-12NC A&TNC A&T×3AceValeria Estradaaced Addison Leber+4.0
2613-13NC A&TNC A&T×3AceLuca Radnaiaced Addison Leber+4.5
2714-13NC A&TTOWSONAttack errZariah Winton+3.2
2814-14TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+3.2
2914-15NC A&TNC A&TKillNicole Ellisset Kirsten Kemper+5.1
3015-15NC A&TTOWSONServe errN.C. A&T+3.4
3116-15TOWSONTOWSONKillAva Dryeset Peyton Meyer+5.2
3216-16TOWSONNC A&TKillZariah Wintonset Kirsten Kemper+3.5
3316-17NC A&TNC A&TKillKirsten Kemperset Zariah Winton+5.6
3417-17NC A&TTOWSON×6KillAva Dryeset Peyton Meyer+3.7
3518-17TOWSONTOWSON×6BlockedTyne Rossblk Ava Drye, Clara Vorel+5.9
3619-17TOWSONTOWSON×6Attack errTyne Ross+5.7
3720-17TOWSONTOWSON×6KillTaylor Paganset Addison Leber+4.9
3821-17TOWSONTOWSON×6KillTaylor Pagan+3.6
3922-17TOWSONTOWSON×6KillAva Dryeset Peyton Meyer+2.2
4022-18TOWSONNC A&TKillTyne Rossset Kirsten Kemper+0.7
4123-18NC A&TTOWSON×3KillAva Dryeset Peyton Meyer+1.3
4224-18TOWSONTOWSON×3Attack errTyne Ross+0.7
4325-18TOWSONTOWSON×3Attack errLuca Radnai+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Towson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).