Final · 4 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on MW+

Grand Canyon def. San Jose St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Grand Canyon 88.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Grand Canyon beat visiting San Jose St. 3-1 (25-13, 22-25, 25-17, 25-22) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Grand Canyon's Katie Schulz led with 14 kills, and Bella Nunez added 20 digs.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set1234Sets
SJSU132517221
GCANYN252225253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Grand Canyon won it on serve.

The biggest single-rally swing was 3.2 points, and San Jose St.'s high was 18% in Set 2. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Grand Canyon at 88%.

San Jose St.Grand Canyon
  • Break %+13.3 pts
    34.647.9

    46 of 96 on serve vs 27 of 78, so San Jose St.'s sideout was 52.1%.

  • Hitting+.084
    .254.338

    59 kills, 13 errors vs 49 kills, 16 errors.

  • Longest run+1
    45

    Up 12–11 in the first set, Grand Canyon scored 5 straight to make it 17–11. Final score of the set: 25–13.

Grand Canyon above 50San Jose St. belowMax swing 3.2%

San Jose St.Grand Canyon

Aces
San Jose St. 6·Grand Canyon 8
Serve err
San Jose St. 12·Grand Canyon 9
Blocks
San Jose St. 5·Grand Canyon 51 BS · 8 BA vs 0 BS · 10 BA
Digs
San Jose St. 53·Grand Canyon 56

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Grand Canyon above 50 · San Jose St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.2% SJSUrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.2% to San Jose St. — set 4, SJSU 16-15 GCANYN. Attack error by Aubrey Bellus. GCANYN win probability 90% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SJSU 8.4%91.6% GCANYN

San Jose St. wins

3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
4.8%

Grand Canyon wins

3-0
47.4%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
12.9%
SJSU break %
36.8% vs this opp
GCANYN break %
47.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Aubrey BellusAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Aubrey Bellus

    Set 4 · SJSU 16-15 GCANYN · SJSU 10% → 13%

  2. 02
    Starr WilliamsAttack error+3.0%

    Attack error by Starr Williams

    Set 4 · SJSU 13-10 GCANYN · SJSU 14% → 17%

  3. 03
    Katie SchulzKill+2.9%

    Kill by Katie Schulz (set by Bella Nunez)

    Set 4 · SJSU 16-17 GCANYN · GCANYN 89% → 92%

  4. 04
    Learden LeeKill+2.9%

    Kill by Learden Lee (set by Hanna Darvas)

    Set 2 · SJSU 24-22 GCANYN · SJSU 12% → 15%

  5. 05

    Kill by Tatiana Robinson (set by Naima Foster)

    Set 4 · SJSU 21-22 GCANYN · SJSU 3% → 6%

  6. 06

    Kill by Aubrey Goodere (set by Taylor Kubacak)

    Set 4 · SJSU 21-23 GCANYN · GCANYN 94% → 97%

  7. 07
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+2.8%

    Point San Jose St. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · SJSU 12-10 GCANYN · SJSU 11% → 14%

  8. 08
    Aubrey BellusKill+2.7%

    Kill by Aubrey Bellus (set by Bella Nunez)

    Set 4 · SJSU 14-14 GCANYN · GCANYN 87% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412222.4550004004214
49424.2080126100010
48122.31800000031.59.5
45114.28600220111.56.5
46320.150101620006
4001.0002221800002
44312.083003610004
4000–7211610002
4014-.2501702500000
35010.500010000006
1011-1.000000000000
Team totals4916130.2544761253818577
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414134.3821236102117
413635.20001141010.514.5
48320.25011320031.510.5
48216.375000000219
45112.3332312200010.56.5
42021.0002520200004
49017.52910050010.59.5
4000–210600001
4000–3001110000
Team totals5913136.3385689566010597

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

San Jose St. vs Grand Canyon

Season series · Grand Canyon leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SJSU · GCANYN 5

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 3 SJSUGCANYN 5

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 3 SJSUGCANYN 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 SJSUGCANYN 4

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 4 SJSUGCANYN 4

Bars above the line = Grand Canyon leads, below = San Jose St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

San Jose St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%7/15
58%7/12
2
70%7/10
0%0/7
3
64%7/11
42%5/12
4
44%7/16
22%2/9
5
50%6/12
25%2/8
6
50%4/8
14%1/7
All
53%38/72
31%17/55

Grand Canyon

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
57%8/14
2
70%7/10
13%1/8
3
64%7/11
46%6/13
4
88%7/8
46%6/13
5
86%6/7
53%8/15
6
57%4/7
56%5/9
All
69%38/55
47%34/72

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#SJSU-GCANYNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1GCANYNGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.1
20-2GCANYNGCANYNAttack errLearden Lee+1.0
31-2GCANYNSJSUKillMorgan Gravesset Hanna Darvas+0.8
41-3SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Goodereset Taylor Kubacak+0.7
52-3GCANYNSJSUKillLearden Leeset Hanna Darvas+0.8
62-4SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Taylor Kubacak+0.7
73-4GCANYNSJSUBlockedStarr Williamsblk Learden Lee+0.8
83-5SJSUGCANYNServe errLearden Lee+0.8
94-5GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Hanna Darvas+0.8
104-6SJSUGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Katie Schulz+0.8
115-6GCANYNSJSUKillMorgan Gravesset Fatimah Hall+0.9
125-7SJSUGCANYNServe errZuzana Kosikova+0.8
136-7GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Fatimah Hall+0.9
146-8SJSUGCANYNServe errNaima Foster+0.9
156-9GCANYNGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.0
167-9GCANYNSJSUKillLearden Leeset Fatimah Hall+0.7
177-10SJSUGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+0.8
187-11GCANYNGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Taylor Kubacak+0.9
198-11GCANYNSJSU×3KillLolo Fonuaset Hanna Darvas+0.6
209-11SJSUSJSU×3KillTatiana Robinsonset Hanna Darvas+1.1
2110-11SJSUSJSU×3KillTatiana Robinsonset Morgan Graves+1.4
2210-12SJSUGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.0
2311-12GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Hanna Darvas+1.0
2411-13SJSUGCANYN×5KillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+1.0
2511-14GCANYNGCANYN×5KillMacey Hughesset Aubrey Bellus+1.2
2611-15GCANYNGCANYN×5KillMacey Hughesset Nika Zupanic+1.0
2711-16GCANYNGCANYN×5Attack errMorgan Graves+0.7
2811-17GCANYNGCANYN×5AceStarr Williams+0.5
2912-17GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Hanna Darvas+0.3
3012-18SJSUGCANYN×5BlockedDevon DeNecocheablk Katie Schulz, Aubrey Bellus+0.3
3112-19GCANYNGCANYN×5KillAubrey Goodereset Bella Nunez+0.3
3212-20GCANYNGCANYN×5AceAubrey Bellusaced Morgan Graves+0.1
3312-21GCANYNGCANYN×5KillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+0.1
3412-22GCANYNGCANYN×5Attack errMorgan Graves·
3513-22GCANYNSJSUServe errAubrey Bellus·
3613-23SJSUGCANYN×3KillAubrey Goodereset Bella Nunez·
3713-24GCANYNGCANYN×3Bad setNaima Foster·
3813-25GCANYNGCANYN×3AceTaylor Kubacak·
Set 2
11-0SJSUSJSUAttack errBella Nunez+0.9
22-0SJSUSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Fatimah Hall+1.0
32-1SJSUGCANYNServe errFatimah Hall+0.7
43-1GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Fatimah Hall+0.8
53-2SJSUGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+0.7
64-2GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Naima Foster+0.8
75-2SJSUSJSUAceSan Jose St.aced Starr Williams+1.2
85-3SJSUGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+0.7
96-3GCANYNSJSUKillLearden Leeset Fatimah Hall+0.9
106-4SJSUGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+0.8
116-5GCANYNGCANYNBlockedLolo Fonuablk Aubrey Goodere, Katie Schulz+1.1
127-5GCANYNSJSUServe errAubrey Bellus+0.9
137-6SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Goodereset Bella Nunez+0.8
147-7GCANYNGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Taylor Kubacak+1.1
158-7GCANYNSJSUKillZuzana Kosikovaset Hanna Darvas+0.9
169-7SJSUSJSUKillAva Hewittset Hanna Darvas+1.3
179-8SJSUGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Taylor Kubacak+0.8
1810-8GCANYNSJSU×3KillZuzana Kosikovaset Hanna Darvas+1.0
1911-8SJSUSJSU×3Attack errAubrey Goodere+1.4
2012-8SJSUSJSU×3KillZuzana Kosikova+1.5
2112-9SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Goodereset Taylor Kubacak+0.8
2213-9GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Fatimah Hall+1.1
2313-10SJSUGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+0.9
2413-11GCANYNGCANYN×3Bad setTatiana Robinson+1.3
2513-12GCANYNGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+1.4
2614-12GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Fatimah Hall+1.2
2714-13SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+1.0
2815-13GCANYNSJSUServe errStarr Williams+1.3
2915-14SJSUGCANYNServe errMorgan Graves+1.1
3015-15GCANYNGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Anderson+1.5
3116-15GCANYNSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Hanna Darvas+1.3
3216-16SJSUGCANYNServe errLolo Fonua+1.1
3317-16GCANYNSJSUKillMorgan Gravesset Naima Foster+1.3
3417-17SJSUGCANYNKillTaylor Kubacakset Hanna Darvas+1.2
3518-17GCANYNSJSUServe errKatie Schulz+1.4
3619-17SJSUSJSUBlockedStarr Williamsblk Ava Hewitt, Tatiana Robinson+2.2
3719-18SJSUGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.3
3820-18GCANYNSJSUKillZuzana Kosikovaset Fatimah Hall+1.7
3920-19SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Taylor Kubacak+1.4
4021-19GCANYNSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Naima Foster+1.9
4122-19SJSUSJSUAceSan Jose St.aced Katie Schulz+2.4
4222-20SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+1.1
4323-20GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Fatimah Hall+1.9
4423-21SJSUGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Naima Foster+1.0
4523-22GCANYNGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Anderson+2.3
4624-22GCANYNSJSUKillLearden Leeset Hanna Darvas+2.9
4725-22SJSUSJSUKillMorgan Gravesset Hanna Darvas+2.6
Set 3
10-1GCANYNGCANYN×3Attack errFatimah Hall+2.0
20-2GCANYNGCANYN×3BlockedZuzana Kosikovablk Aubrey Goodere, Bella Nunez+1.8
30-3GCANYNGCANYN×3AceKatie Schulzaced Lolo Fonua+1.5
41-3GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Fatimah Hall+1.1
51-4SJSUGCANYNServe errFatimah Hall+1.1
62-4GCANYNSJSUBlockedStarr Williamsblk Ava Hewitt, Tatiana Robinson+1.2
73-4SJSUSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Fatimah Hall+1.9
83-5SJSUGCANYN×4Serve errZuzana Kosikova+1.4
93-6GCANYNGCANYN×4KillStarr Williamsset Macey Hughes+1.7
103-7GCANYNGCANYN×4AceBella Nunez+1.4
113-8GCANYNGCANYN×4KillMacey Hughesset Nika Zupanic+1.1
124-8GCANYNSJSU×3Serve errBella Nunez+0.7
135-8SJSUSJSU×3Attack errStarr Williams+1.3
146-8SJSUSJSU×3BlockedStarr Williamsblk Tatiana Robinson, Learden Lee+1.7
156-9SJSUGCANYN×3KillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+1.3
166-10GCANYNGCANYN×3BlockedLolo Fonuablk Aubrey Bellus, Macey Hughes+1.5
176-11GCANYNGCANYN×3AceBella Andersonaced Zuzana Kosikova+1.2
187-11GCANYNSJSUKillLearden Leeset Fatimah Hall+0.8
197-12SJSUGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+0.8
207-13GCANYNGCANYNKillAubrey Goodereset Bella Nunez+0.9
218-13GCANYNSJSUServe errAubrey Bellus+0.5
228-14SJSUGCANYNServe errLolo Fonua+0.6
239-14GCANYNSJSU×3Attack errKatie Schulz+0.5
2410-14SJSUSJSU×3Attack errAubrey Goodere+1.0
2511-14SJSUSJSU×3AceSan Jose St.aced Nika Zupanic+1.5
2611-15SJSUGCANYN×3KillKatie Schulzset Taylor Kubacak+1.2
2711-16GCANYNGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.3
2811-17GCANYNGCANYN×3Attack errZuzana Kosikova+0.8
2912-17GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Hanna Darvas+0.4
3012-18SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Goodereset Taylor Kubacak+0.6
3113-18GCANYNSJSUBlockedAubrey Bellusblk Ava Hewitt, Tatiana Robinson+0.4
3213-19SJSUGCANYNServe errZuzana Kosikova+0.6
3313-20GCANYNGCANYNBlockedTatiana Robinsonblk Aubrey Bellus, Starr Williams+0.4
3414-20GCANYNSJSUServe errBella Nunez+0.2
3514-21SJSUGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+0.3
3615-21GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Fatimah Hall+0.1
3716-21SJSUSJSUAttack errAubrey Bellus+0.4
3816-22SJSUGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+0.4
3917-22GCANYNSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Hanna Darvas+0.2
4017-23SJSUGCANYN×3KillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+0.3
4117-24GCANYNGCANYN×3KillKatie Schulzset Taylor Kubacak+0.1
4217-25GCANYNGCANYN×3Attack errZuzana Kosikova·
Set 4
11-0SJSUSJSUKillMariana Buchananset Hanna Darvas+1.8
21-1SJSUGCANYNServe errHanna Darvas+1.2
32-1GCANYNSJSU×3KillMorgan Gravesset Naima Foster+1.3
43-1SJSUSJSU×3KillLolo Fonuaset Hanna Darvas+2.0
54-1SJSUSJSU×3KillMariana Buchananset Hanna Darvas+2.2
64-2SJSUGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.4
75-2GCANYNSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Hanna Darvas+1.7
85-3SJSUGCANYNServe errLearden Lee+1.4
96-3GCANYNSJSUKillMariana Buchananset Naima Foster+1.7
107-3SJSUSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Naima Foster+2.4
117-4SJSUGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+1.4
128-4GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Fatimah Hall+1.8
138-5SJSUGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+1.5
148-6GCANYNGCANYNAceTaylor Kubacakaced Naima Foster+2.2
159-6GCANYNSJSUKillAva Hewittset Fatimah Hall+1.9
169-7SJSUGCANYN×4KillTaylor Kubacakset Fatimah Hall+1.6
179-8GCANYNGCANYN×4KillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+2.3
189-9GCANYNGCANYN×4AceKatie Schulzaced Morgan Graves+2.2
199-10GCANYNGCANYN×4KillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+2.0
2010-10GCANYNSJSU×4Serve errKatie Schulz+1.6
2111-10SJSUSJSU×4AceSan Jose St.+2.5
2212-10SJSU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.8
2313-10SJSUSJSU×4Attack errStarr Williams+3.0
2413-11SJSUGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+1.8
2513-12GCANYNGCANYNAttack errMorgan Graves+2.6
2614-12GCANYNSJSUKillMariana Buchananset Hanna Darvas+2.3
2714-13SJSUGCANYN×3KillAubrey Bellusset Taylor Kubacak+1.9
2814-14GCANYNGCANYN×3KillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+2.7
2914-15GCANYNGCANYN×3Attack errLolo Fonua+2.6
3015-15GCANYNSJSUKillMariana Buchananset Hanna Darvas+2.0
3116-15SJSUSJSUAttack errAubrey Bellus+3.2
3216-16SJSUGCANYN×4KillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+2.1
3316-17GCANYNGCANYN×4KillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+2.9
3416-18GCANYNGCANYN×4Attack errLolo Fonua+2.6
3516-19GCANYNGCANYN×4KillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+2.1
3617-19GCANYNSJSUKillLolo Fonuaset Hanna Darvas+1.3
3717-20SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+1.5
3818-20GCANYNSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Fatimah Hall+1.3
3919-20SJSUSJSUAceSan Jose St.+2.7
4019-21SJSUGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Nika Zupanic+2.3
4119-22GCANYNGCANYNAttack errAva Hewitt+2.4
4220-22GCANYNSJSUKillMorgan Gravesset Fatimah Hall+1.2
4321-22SJSUSJSUKillTatiana Robinsonset Naima Foster+2.9
4421-23SJSUGCANYNKillAubrey Goodereset Taylor Kubacak+2.8
4521-24GCANYNGCANYNAttack errTatiana Robinson+2.5
4622-24GCANYNSJSUServe errKatie Schulz+0.7
4722-25SJSUGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.5

Score shown after each rally, San Jose St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).