FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwaySOCON

0:3

HomeUAC-

North Ala. def. Mercer 3–0

(25-21, 25-12, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MERCER	21	12	21	0
N ALA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

N ALA above 50 · MERCER below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Mercer — set 1, MERCER 13-10 N ALA. Attack error by Phoebe Reyes Fortunato. N ALA win probability 91% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MERCER 5.6%94.4% N ALA

Mercer wins

3-0

0.7%

3-1

1.6%

3-2

3.4%

North Ala. wins

3-0

53.7%

3-1

30.1%

3-2

10.5%

MERCER break %: 36.5% vs this opp
N ALA break %: 48.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Phoebe Reyes FortunatoAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Phoebe Reyes Fortunato
Set 1 · MERCER 13-10 N ALA · MERCER 9% → 11%
02
Avery WilksAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Avery Wilks
Set 1 · MERCER 15-15 N ALA · N ALA 91% → 93%
03
MERCER serverService error+1.4%
Mercer service error
Set 1 · MERCER 12-10 N ALA · MERCER 8% → 9%
04
Lara MattaAttack error+1.3%
Lara Matta stuffed by Phoebe Reyes Fortunato & Jenna Kolosta
Set 1 · MERCER 13-12 N ALA · N ALA 90% → 92%
05
Anna HoffmayerKill+1.3%
Kill by Anna Hoffmayer (set by Kinslee McGowan)
Set 1 · MERCER 15-16 N ALA · N ALA 93% → 94%
06
Joselynn SanjurjoBad set+1.3%
Bad set by Joselynn Sanjurjo
Set 1 · MERCER 17-19 N ALA · N ALA 94% → 95%
07
Lara MattaKill+1.2%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 1 · MERCER 15-13 N ALA · MERCER 9% → 10%
08
Lara MattaKill+1.2%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 1 · MERCER 14-12 N ALA · MERCER 8% → 9%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Merceraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
20Lara MattaOH	3	13	5	34	.235	0	0	3	8	0	1	0.5	13.5
7Avery WilksMB	3	7	1	15	.400	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	8
15Brooklyn PalmerOH	3	5	2	25	.120	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	5
3Joselynn SanjurjoMB	3	5	3	14	.143	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
8Sammi BergjansS	3	2	0	5	.400	28	1	1	9	0	0	0	3
21Sarah FragerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0
16Mikayla MiesslerOH	3	7	4	17	.176	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	7
9Aubri MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	15	1	0	0	0
6Brooke KaouiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
14Jasmine CaltonMB	1	0	0	3	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		39	15	113	.212	36	1	12	47	5	4	2	54

North Ala.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
24Dylann GarnerOH	3	12	1	28	.393	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12
11Reese RickettsOH	3	10	3	26	.269	0	1	2	8	0	1	0.5	11.5
6Phoebe Reyes FortunatoOH	3	10	2	23	.348	0	0	0	8	0	2	1	11
16Anna HoffmayerMB	3	6	0	12	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
15Jenna KolostaMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	4
4Kinslee McGowanS	3	0	0	2	.000	35	0	2	6	0	1	0.5	0.5
1Ava MartindaleL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	3	1	19	0	0	0	3
21Kaylee MaikranzL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	1
3Ally GreenwellOH	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
5Lankford GurnerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	8	102	.314	38	5	6	51	1	8	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MERCER · N ALA 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 MERCERN ALA 4

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 3 MERCERN ALA 5

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 2 MERCERN ALA 4

Bars above the line = North Ala. leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mercer

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	42%5/12
2	62%8/13	33%4/12
3	39%7/18	11%1/9
4	36%5/14	30%3/10
5	63%5/8	17%1/6
6	71%5/7	29%2/7
All	52%38/73	29%16/56

North Ala.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	40%4/10
2	62%8/13	43%6/14
3	80%8/10	50%8/16
4	86%6/7	63%10/16
5	83%5/6	44%4/9
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	71%40/56	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	MERCER-N ALA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.8
2	1-1	MERCER	N ALA	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.5
3	2-1	N ALA	MERCER×3	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
4	3-1	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.9
5	4-1	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.1
6	4-2	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.7
7	4-3	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.9
8	5-3	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.8
9	5-4	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.7
10	6-4	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.8
11	6-5	MERCER	N ALA×4	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.7
12	6-6	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.9
13	6-7	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer		+0.8
14	6-8	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.7
15	7-8	N ALA	MERCER	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.5
16	8-8	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Ally Greenwell		+0.9
17	8-9	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.6
18	9-9	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.7
19	10-9	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Reese Ricketts		+1.1
20	10-10	MERCER	N ALA	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+0.8
21	11-10	N ALA	MERCER×3	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.9
22	12-10	MERCER	MERCER×3	Serve err	MERCER server		+1.4
23	13-10	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato		+1.5
24	13-11	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.9
25	13-12	N ALA	N ALA	Attack err	Lara Matta	blk Phoebe Reyes Fortunato, Jenna Kolosta	+1.3
26	14-12	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.2
27	14-13	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+1.0
28	15-13	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.2
29	15-14	MERCER	N ALA×3	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+1.0
30	15-15	N ALA	N ALA×3	Attack err	Avery Wilks		+1.4
31	15-16	N ALA	N ALA×3	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.3
32	16-16	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Aubri Martin	+1.0
33	16-17	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+1.0
34	17-17	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.1
35	17-18	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.1
36	17-19	N ALA	N ALA	Bad set	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+1.3
37	18-19	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.9
38	18-20	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.0
39	19-20	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Sammi Bergjans	set Mikayla Miessler	+1.0
40	19-21	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.1
41	19-22	N ALA	N ALA	Ace	N ALA server	aced Sarah Frager	+1.1
42	20-22	N ALA	MERCER	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.6
43	20-23	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.8
44	20-24	N ALA	N ALA	Ace	N ALA server	aced Team	+0.5
45	21-24	N ALA	MERCER	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.1
46	21-25	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
2	1-1	MERCER	N ALA×4	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.3
3	1-2	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler	blk Jenna Kolosta, Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	+0.4
4	1-3	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Ava Martindale	+0.4
5	1-4	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.3
6	2-4	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
7	3-4	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Brooke Kaoui	+0.4
8	3-5	MERCER	N ALA×5	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.3
9	3-6	N ALA	N ALA×5	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+0.3
10	3-7	N ALA	N ALA×5	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.3
11	3-8	N ALA	N ALA×5	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler		+0.2
12	3-9	N ALA	N ALA×5	Ace	N ALA server	aced Mikayla Miessler	+0.2
13	4-9	N ALA	MERCER×3	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
14	5-9	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
15	6-9	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Aubri Martin	+0.3
16	6-10	MERCER	N ALA×4	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.2
17	6-11	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.2
18	6-12	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
19	6-13	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
20	7-13	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
21	7-14	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
22	8-14	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Joselynn Sanjurjo	+0.1
23	8-15	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
24	9-15	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
25	9-16	MERCER	N ALA×3	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
26	9-17	N ALA	N ALA×3	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
27	9-18	N ALA	N ALA×3	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Ava Martindale	+0.0
28	10-18	N ALA	MERCER	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.0
29	10-19	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.0
30	11-19	N ALA	MERCER	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.0
31	11-20	MERCER	N ALA×3	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.0
32	11-21	N ALA	N ALA×3	Ace	N ALA server	aced Mikayla Miessler	+0.0
33	11-22	N ALA	N ALA×3	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Ava Martindale	+0.0
34	12-22	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
35	12-23	MERCER	N ALA×3	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.0
36	12-24	N ALA	N ALA×3	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+0.0
37	12-25	N ALA	N ALA×3	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	MERCER server	aced Team	+0.2
2	2-0	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Jenna Kolosta		+0.3
3	2-1	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.2
4	3-1	N ALA	MERCER	Attack err	Dylann Garner	blk Avery Wilks, Jasmine Calton	+0.2
5	4-1	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Jasmine Calton	+0.3
6	4-2	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
7	5-2	N ALA	MERCER	Attack err	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	blk Lara Matta, Avery Wilks	+0.3
8	5-3	MERCER	N ALA×4	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
9	5-4	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.3
10	5-5	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.3
11	5-6	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.2
12	6-6	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
13	6-7	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.2
14	6-8	N ALA	N ALA	Ace	N ALA server	aced Aubri Martin	+0.2
15	7-8	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+0.2
16	7-9	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
17	8-9	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Sammi Bergjans	set Brooke Kaoui	+0.2
18	8-10	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
19	8-11	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
20	9-11	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
21	9-12	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
22	9-13	N ALA	N ALA	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.2
23	10-13	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
24	11-13	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks		+0.2
25	11-14	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
26	12-14	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
27	12-15	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.2
28	13-15	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
29	13-16	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
30	14-16	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
31	14-17	MERCER	N ALA×3	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
32	14-18	N ALA	N ALA×3	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler	blk Kinslee McGowan, Jenna Kolosta	+0.2
33	14-19	N ALA	N ALA×3	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo	blk Jenna Kolosta, Reese Ricketts	+0.1
34	15-19	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
35	16-19	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
36	16-20	MERCER	N ALA	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.1
37	16-21	N ALA	N ALA	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler		+0.1
38	17-21	N ALA	MERCER	Attack err	Reese Ricketts		+0.1
39	17-22	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
40	18-22	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
41	18-23	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
42	19-23	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
43	19-24	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
44	20-24	N ALA	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
45	21-24	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
46	21-25	MERCER	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.