CSU Bakersfield def. California Baptist 3-0 (Nov 7)

FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: CSU Bakersfield 74.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

CSU Bakersfield beat visiting California Baptist 3-0 (25-22, 25-17, 25-20) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026. Suelen Lima led CSU Bakersfield with 8 kills; California Baptist's Emery DeJong had a match-high 9.

Data through Nov 10, 6:20 PM CT · final Nov 7

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CALBAP	22	17	20	0
CSUBAK	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

California Baptist hit .038. CSU Bakersfield held them there all match.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.7 points. California Baptist peaked at 33% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had CSU Bakersfield at 74%.

California BaptistCSU Bakersfield

Break %+12.8 pts
39.352.1
On serve: 38/73 against 24/61 (California Baptist sideout 47.9%).
Hitting+.175
.038.213
Kills and errors: 37–14 vs 29–25.

CSU Bakersfield above 50California Baptist belowMax swing 3.7%

California BaptistCSU Bakersfield

Aces: California Baptist 3·CSU Bakersfield 6
Serve err: California Baptist 7·CSU Bakersfield 11
Blocks: California Baptist 10·CSU Bakersfield 100 BS · 20 BA vs 0 BS · 20 BA
Digs: California Baptist 45·CSU Bakersfield 40

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

CSU Bakersfield above 50 · California Baptist below

Biggest swing: 3.7% to CSU Bakersfield — set 1, CALBAP 21-23 CSUBAK. Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Analiese Gagliano). CSUBAK win probability 77% → 81%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CALBAP 24.5%75.5% CSUBAK

California Baptist wins

3-0

4.3%

3-1

8.4%

3-2

11.8%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0

27.4%

3-1

28.8%

3-2

19.2%

CALBAP break %: 40.7% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %: 45.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Jordyn Waite-WardKill+3.7%
Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Analiese Gagliano)
Set 1 · CALBAP 21-23 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 77% → 81%
02
Emery DeJongKill+3.5%
Kill by Emery DeJong (set by Maria Contreras)
Set 1 · CALBAP 21-22 CSUBAK · CALBAP 19% → 23%
03
Jordyn Waite-WardKill+3.3%
Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Luiza Da Cruz)
Set 1 · CALBAP 21-24 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 81% → 84%
04
Daria ChekhovskikhKill+3.0%
Kill by Daria Chekhovskikh
Set 1 · CALBAP 12-10 CSUBAK · CALBAP 30% → 33%
05
Jordyn Waite-WardKill+2.8%
Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Analiese Gagliano)
Set 1 · CALBAP 12-12 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 69% → 72%
06
Daria Chekhovskikh&Avery BarberBlock+2.8%
Defne Yanik stuffed by Daria Chekhovskikh & Avery Barber
Set 1 · CALBAP 11-10 CSUBAK · CALBAP 27% → 30%
07
Daria ChekhovskikhAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Daria Chekhovskikh
Set 1 · CALBAP 12-13 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 72% → 75%
08
Jordyn Waite-WardKill+2.7%
Kill by Jordyn Waite-Ward (set by Analiese Gagliano)
Set 1 · CALBAP 13-15 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 75% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

California Baptistaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Emery DeJongOH	3	9	6	26	.115	0	0	1	5	2	3	1.5	10.5
8Filippa BotcherMB	3	3	0	9	.333	0	1	2	1	0	5	2.5	6.5
17Daria ChekhovskikhMB	3	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	3.5
7Avery BarberS	3	1	0	5	.200	18	0	1	2	0	4	2	3
23Nalanie NealOH	2	5	5	19	.000	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	5
13Eleftheria BaxaOH	2	3	2	10	.100	2	1	0	4	0	1	0.5	4.5
12Audrey HeiringOH	3	6	7	15	-.067	0	1	0	4	0	1	0.5	7.5
22Jagoda BialekL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	10	2	0	0	0
2Nika SafaviOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
11Anaiya CampbellOH	2	1	2	15	-.067	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Maria ContrerasS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Mia RossmanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	25	106	.038	26	3	7	45	6	20	10	59

CSU Bakersfieldhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Suelen LimaOH	3	8	1	17	.412	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	11
19Leylah DuranMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	2	2	2	0	7	3.5	10.5
20Jordyn Waite-WardMB	3	7	2	18	.278	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
3Ana Franca BenjaminOH	3	5	2	22	.136	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	6
1Luiza Da CruzS	3	3	1	5	.400	10	1	2	6	0	0	0	4
14Defne YanikMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	3.5
6Anna BacchinOH	3	7	6	27	.037	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
15Samantha CapinpinS	3	0	0	2	.000	13	1	2	13	0	0	0	1
5Analiese GaglianoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
11Boden LiljedahlL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	3	7	1	0	0	0
Team totals		37	14	108	.213	32	6	11	40	3	20	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

California Baptist vs CSU Bakersfield

Season series · CSU Bakersfield leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 9, 2026CSU Bakersfield at California Baptist · CSU Bakersfield won 3-0Result →
Sat, Nov 7, 2026California Baptist at CSU Bakersfield · CSU Bakersfield won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CALBAP · CSUBAK 4

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 6 CALBAPCSUBAK 3

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 CALBAPCSUBAK 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 CALBAPCSUBAK 4

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = California Baptist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

California Baptist

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	22%2/9
2	46%6/13	14%1/7
3	46%6/13	0%0/6
4	50%6/12	57%8/14
5	55%6/11	45%5/11
6	45%5/11	57%8/14
All	48%35/73	39%24/61

CSU Bakersfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	64%9/14
2	86%6/7	33%3/9
3	67%6/9	67%12/18
4	50%6/12	40%4/10
5	55%6/11	45%5/11
6	46%6/13	45%5/11
All	61%37/61	52%38/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#	CALBAP-CSUBAK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Blocked	Eleftheria Baxa	blk Defne Yanik, Suelen Lima	+1.4
2	0-2	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Ace	CSU Bakersfield	aced Emery DeJong	+1.8
3	1-2	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+1.4
4	1-3	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Serve err	California Baptist		+1.4
5	2-3	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+1.4
6	2-4	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh		+1.4
7	3-4	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Eleftheria Baxa	+1.4
8	4-4	CALBAP	CALBAP	Attack err	Ana Franca Benjamin		+2.1
9	4-5	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Boden Liljedahl	+1.6
10	4-6	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.0
11	4-7	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Ace	CSU Bakersfield	aced Emery DeJong	+1.8
12	5-7	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+1.3
13	6-7	CALBAP	CALBAP	Blocked	Anna Bacchin	blk Emery DeJong, Filippa Botcher	+2.0
14	6-8	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Serve err	California Baptist		+1.6
15	6-9	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.9
16	6-10	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.7
17	7-10	CSUBAK	CALBAP×6	Kill	Filippa Botcher	set Avery Barber	+1.1
18	8-10	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Ace	Filippa Botcher		+1.8
19	9-10	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Blocked	Jordyn Waite-Ward	blk Avery Barber, Daria Chekhovskikh	+2.2
20	10-10	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Blocked	Ana Franca Benjamin	blk Emery DeJong, Daria Chekhovskikh	+2.5
21	11-10	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Blocked	Defne Yanik	blk Daria Chekhovskikh, Avery Barber	+2.8
22	12-10	CALBAP	CALBAP×6	Kill	Daria Chekhovskikh		+3.0
23	12-11	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Serve err	California Baptist		+2.0
24	12-12	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Analiese Gagliano	+2.8
25	12-13	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Daria Chekhovskikh		+2.8
26	13-13	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+2.2
27	13-14	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Luiza Da Cruz	+2.2
28	13-15	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Analiese Gagliano	+2.7
29	14-15	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+2.0
30	14-16	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+2.1
31	14-17	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Blocked	Nalanie Neal	blk Suelen Lima, Leylah Duran	+2.5
32	14-18	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.0
33	15-18	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+1.2
34	15-19	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.5
35	15-20	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Eleftheria Baxa		+1.4
36	16-20	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+0.7
37	17-20	CALBAP	CALBAP	Ace	Audrey Heiring	aced Boden Liljedahl	+1.5
38	17-21	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.5
39	18-21	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Avery Barber		+1.1
40	19-21	CALBAP	CALBAP	Blocked	Anna Bacchin	blk Emery DeJong, Filippa Botcher	+2.2
41	19-22	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Serve err	California Baptist		+2.3
42	20-22	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+1.6
43	21-22	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+3.5
44	21-23	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Analiese Gagliano	+3.7
45	21-24	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Luiza Da Cruz	+3.3
46	22-24	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+1.0
47	22-25	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+2.2
Set 2
1	1-0	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Jagoda Bialek	+1.3
2	1-1	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Luiza Da Cruz		+1.2
3	2-1	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Bad set	Suelen Lima		+1.3
4	2-2	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Blocked	Emery DeJong	blk Suelen Lima, Leylah Duran	+1.2
5	2-3	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.6
6	2-4	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Analiese Gagliano	+1.5
7	3-4	CSUBAK	CALBAP×4	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+1.2
8	4-4	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Anna Bacchin		+1.7
9	5-4	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Blocked	Anna Bacchin	blk Audrey Heiring, Filippa Botcher	+1.8
10	6-4	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.9
11	6-5	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Ana Franca Benjamin	+1.4
12	7-5	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+1.5
13	8-5	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+2.0
14	8-6	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.4
15	9-6	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Avery Barber	+1.6
16	9-7	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.4
17	10-7	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Jagoda Bialek	+1.7
18	10-8	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Serve err	California Baptist		+1.4
19	10-9	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Blocked	Emery DeJong	blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Defne Yanik	+2.0
20	11-9	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+1.7
21	11-10	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.6
22	12-10	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+1.8
23	12-11	CALBAP	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.6
24	12-12	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Ace	CSU Bakersfield		+2.2
25	12-13	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Blocked	Nalanie Neal	blk Suelen Lima, Leylah Duran	+2.2
26	12-14	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+2.1
27	13-14	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Nalanie Neal	set Jagoda Bialek	+1.5
28	13-15	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+1.6
29	13-16	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Blocked	Audrey Heiring	blk Leylah Duran, Anna Bacchin	+1.9
30	13-17	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Blocked	Audrey Heiring	blk Leylah Duran, Anna Bacchin	+1.5
31	14-17	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+1.0
32	14-18	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Attack err	Nalanie Neal		+1.2
33	14-19	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.1
34	15-19	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+0.6
35	16-19	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Maria Contreras	+1.2
36	16-20	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Attack err	Emery DeJong		+1.2
37	16-21	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Jordyn Waite-Ward	+1.1
38	17-21	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+0.5
39	17-22	CALBAP	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.7
40	17-23	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Emery DeJong		+0.5
41	17-24	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Blocked	Emery DeJong	blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Defne Yanik	+0.2
42	17-25	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Emery DeJong		·
Set 3
1	1-0	CALBAP	CALBAP	Blocked	Suelen Lima	blk Eleftheria Baxa, Daria Chekhovskikh	+0.9
2	2-0	CALBAP	CALBAP	Bad set	Luiza Da Cruz		+1.0
3	2-1	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Luiza Da Cruz		+0.7
4	3-1	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Attack err	Luiza Da Cruz		+0.8
5	3-2	CALBAP	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.7
6	3-3	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Analiese Gagliano	+0.9
7	3-4	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Analiese Gagliano	+0.9
8	3-5	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Analiese Gagliano	+0.9
9	4-5	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+0.7
10	4-6	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.7
11	4-7	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.8
12	5-7	CSUBAK	CALBAP×4	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+0.6
13	6-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Attack err	Leylah Duran		+0.9
14	7-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Kill	Filippa Botcher	set Avery Barber	+1.0
15	8-7	CALBAP	CALBAP×4	Ace	Eleftheria Baxa		+1.1
16	8-8	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.8
17	8-9	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Ace	CSU Bakersfield	aced Jagoda Bialek	+1.0
18	8-10	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Anaiya Campbell		+1.0
19	9-10	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Blocked	Anna Bacchin	blk Filippa Botcher, Avery Barber	+0.7
20	9-11	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Serve err	California Baptist		+0.8
21	9-12	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.9
22	9-13	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Ace	CSU Bakersfield		+0.8
23	10-13	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Serve err	CSU Bakersfield		+0.5
24	11-13	CALBAP	CALBAP	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+0.9
25	11-14	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.7
26	11-15	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Ace	CSU Bakersfield	aced Jagoda Bialek	+0.8
27	12-15	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Emery DeJong	set Avery Barber	+0.5
28	12-16	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Serve err	California Baptist		+0.6
29	12-17	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.6
30	13-17	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Jagoda Bialek	+0.4
31	14-17	CALBAP	CALBAP	Blocked	Jordyn Waite-Ward	blk Anaiya Campbell, Daria Chekhovskikh	+0.7
32	14-18	CALBAP	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.7
33	14-19	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Blocked	Daria Chekhovskikh	blk Leylah Duran, Suelen Lima	+0.6
34	14-20	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Blocked	Anaiya Campbell	blk Leylah Duran, Suelen Lima	+0.4
35	15-20	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Eleftheria Baxa	set Avery Barber	+0.2
36	15-21	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.3
37	16-21	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Anaiya Campbell	set Avery Barber	+0.2
38	16-22	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.2
39	17-22	CSUBAK	CALBAP×3	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Avery Barber	+0.1
40	18-22	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Kill	Audrey Heiring	set Eleftheria Baxa	+0.3
41	19-22	CALBAP	CALBAP×3	Blocked	Anna Bacchin	blk Avery Barber, Filippa Botcher	+0.5
42	19-23	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.6
43	20-23	CSUBAK	CALBAP	Kill	Filippa Botcher	set Avery Barber	+0.3
44	20-24	CALBAP	CSUBAK	Kill	Luiza Da Cruz	set Analiese Gagliano	+0.6
45	20-25	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Audrey Heiring		+0.2

Score shown after each rally, California Baptist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

CSU Bakersfield def. California Baptist 3–0

California Baptist hit .038. CSU Bakersfield held them there all match.