FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-12

0:3

HomePAC-12

Colorado St. def. Colorado 3–0

(25-21, 25-23, 25-15)

Set	1*	2*	3	Sets
COLO	21	23	15	0
CO ST	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CO ST above 50 · COLO below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Colorado St. — set 2, COLO 23-25 CO ST. Kill by Eve Wilson. CO ST win probability 91% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

COLO 26.2%73.8% CO ST

Colorado wins

3-0

4.7%

3-1

9.0%

3-2

12.4%

Colorado St. wins

3-0

26.1%

3-1

28.3%

3-2

19.5%

COLO break %: 40.1% vs this opp
CO ST break %: 44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Eve WilsonKill+4.3%
Kill by Eve Wilson
Set 2 · COLO 23-25 CO ST · CO ST 91% → 95%
02
CO ST serverAce+4.0%
Colorado St. ace on Peyton Neal
Set 1 · COLO 18-19 CO ST · CO ST 72% → 76%
03
Ella StowellAttack error+3.7%
Attack error by Ella Stowell
Set 1 · COLO 17-16 CO ST · COLO 27% → 31%
04
Halle JamesonKill+3.7%
Kill by Halle Jameson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · COLO 18-20 CO ST · CO ST 76% → 79%
05
Ana BurilovicAttack error+3.3%
Ana Burilovic stuffed by Kekua Richards & Sofia Zabjek
Set 2 · COLO 22-24 CO ST · CO ST 89% → 93%
06
Ines LosadaAttack error+3.2%
Ines Losada stuffed by Eve Wilson & Erin Debiec
Set 1 · COLO 15-16 CO ST · CO ST 72% → 75%
07
Ines LosadaAttack error+3.1%
Ines Losada stuffed by Erin Debiec & Eve Wilson
Set 1 · COLO 14-14 CO ST · CO ST 69% → 72%
08
CO ST serverService error+3.0%
Colorado St. service error
Set 1 · COLO 18-17 CO ST · COLO 28% → 31%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Coloradoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Ana BurilovicOH	3	14	7	40	.175	1	0	1	10	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
21Lily DwinellOH	3	8	7	19	.053	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
33Cayla PayneMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
7Barbora RakauskaiteMB	3	3	2	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
2Jenna YlivainioS	3	1	0	6	.167	30	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
20Peyton NealL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	0	0
10Sydney JordanOH	3	5	4	21	.048	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
9Avery BollesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
8Ines LosadaOH	3	0	4	5	-.800	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Audrey AslesonS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Dumebi OkoyeOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Elle RichardsonS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Katie SalongaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Kensley HennessyMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Maria SplawskaMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Nikki OttL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Tinons Munar galmesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	8	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	26	108	.083	35	1	4	34	6	2	10	7	59

Colorado St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Sofia ZabjekOH	3	9	1	17	.471	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
33Kekua RichardsMB	3	7	2	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	4.5	11.5
27Eve WilsonMB	3	9	3	17	.353	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	2	11
4Halle JamesonOH	3	8	6	29	.069	0	0	1	5	0	1	2	2	10
23Erin DebiecS	3	0	2	3	-.667	33	1	1	7	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
26Maria BrunOH	3	0	0	3	.000	0	2	2	2	1	0	2	1	3
21Ella StowellOH	3	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
24Hayden GrimesL/DS	3	1	0	2	.500	0	2	1	8	0	0	0	0	3
1Karsyn FetzerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	1
11Abby LittleOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Brenna RowlandMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Brooke HolmanOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Jaedyn RileyS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Olivia EwingMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Silvie GraetzerMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Sophie StephensonOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	16	90	.256	35	6	7	35	1	2	26	15	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 COLO · CO ST 5

Set 1*

21-25

Longest run 4 COLOCO ST 4

Set 2*

23-25

Longest run 4 COLOCO ST 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 4 COLOCO ST 5

Bars above the line = Colorado St. leads, below = Colorado leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Colorado

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%2/5	0%0/1
2	29%2/7	0%0/2
3	67%2/3	0%0/2
4	50%2/4	33%1/3
5	50%2/4	60%3/5
6	50%1/2	0%0/2
All	44%11/25	27%4/15

Colorado St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%2/2	60%3/5
2	100%2/2	71%5/7
3	67%2/3	33%1/3
4	40%2/5	50%2/4
5	100%2/2	50%2/4
6	100%1/1	50%1/2
All	73%11/15	56%14/25

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	COLO-CO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.6
2	2-0	COLO	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+2.2
3	2-1	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.5
4	3-1	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.7
5	3-2	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+1.6
6	4-2	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.8
7	4-3	COLO	CO ST×4	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.6
8	4-4	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+2.2
9	4-5	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Tinons Munar galmes	+2.1
10	4-6	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Tinons Munar galmes	+2.0
11	5-6	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.5
12	5-7	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+1.5
13	6-7	CO ST	COLO	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.5
14	6-8	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	set Tinons Munar galmes	+1.5
15	7-8	CO ST	COLO	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.6
16	7-9	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.6
17	8-9	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.6
18	9-9	COLO	COLO	Attack err	Kekua Richards	blk Lily Dwinell, Cayla Payne	+2.5
19	9-10	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.8
20	10-10	CO ST	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.9
21	11-10	COLO	COLO×4	Ace	COLO server	aced Maria Brun	+2.8
22	12-10	COLO	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+3.0
23	13-10	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Halle Jameson		+3.0
24	13-11	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Karsyn Fetzer	+1.9
25	14-11	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+2.3
26	14-12	COLO	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+1.9
27	14-13	CO ST	CO ST×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.9
28	14-14	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Ines Losada	blk Erin Debiec, Eve Wilson	+3.1
29	15-14	CO ST	COLO	Attack err	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+2.5
30	15-15	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Ines Losada	set Katie Salonga	+2.4
31	15-16	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Ines Losada	blk Eve Wilson, Erin Debiec	+3.2
32	16-16	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+2.5
33	17-16	COLO	COLO	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+3.7
34	17-17	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+2.6
35	18-17	CO ST	COLO	Serve err	CO ST server		+3.0
36	18-18	COLO	CO ST×4	Serve err	COLO server		+2.8
37	18-19	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Peyton Neal	+4.0
38	18-20	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+3.7
39	18-21	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Lily Dwinell		+3.0
40	19-21	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.6
41	19-22	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+2.3
42	19-23	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Sofia Zabjek, Erin Debiec, Kekua Richards	+1.9
43	20-23	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Tinons Munar galmes	+0.7
44	20-24	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+1.2
45	21-24	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.4
46	21-25	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.9
Set 2
1	0-1	COLO	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.1
2	0-2	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+1.5
3	0-3	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards		+1.3
4	1-3	CO ST	COLO×4	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.0
5	2-3	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Kekua Richards	blk Cayla Payne	+1.5
6	3-3	COLO	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.7
7	4-3	COLO	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.8
8	4-4	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.3
9	4-5	CO ST	CO ST	Ace	CO ST server	aced Tinons Munar galmes	+1.7
10	5-5	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.3
11	5-6	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.3
12	5-7	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Ana Burilovic		+1.7
13	6-7	CO ST	COLO	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Jenna Ylivainio, Cayla Payne	+1.2
14	6-8	COLO	CO ST	Serve err	COLO server		+1.2
15	6-9	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Karsyn Fetzer	+1.5
16	7-9	CO ST	COLO×3	Kill	Jenna Ylivainio	set Avery Bolles	+1.1
17	8-9	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Eve Wilson		+1.7
18	9-9	COLO	COLO×3	Kill	Sydney Jordan		+2.0
19	9-10	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.5
20	10-10	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.5
21	10-11	COLO	CO ST	Serve err	COLO server		+1.5
22	10-12	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+1.9
23	11-12	CO ST	COLO	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.4
24	12-12	COLO	COLO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.2
25	12-13	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.6
26	12-14	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Kekua Richards, Sofia Zabjek	+2.1
27	13-14	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.5
28	13-15	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.6
29	14-15	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.6
30	14-16	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+1.7
31	15-16	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.6
32	16-16	COLO	COLO	Serve err	COLO server		+2.6
33	16-17	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+2.0
34	17-17	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+2.1
35	17-18	COLO	CO ST×4	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+2.1
36	17-19	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Barbora Rakauskaite	blk Ella Stowell, Kekua Richards	+2.7
37	17-20	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Sydney Jordan	blk Kekua Richards, Erin Debiec	+2.3
38	17-21	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Ines Losada		+1.6
39	18-21	CO ST	COLO×3	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.8
40	19-21	COLO	COLO×3	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+1.8
41	20-21	COLO	COLO×3	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Lily Dwinell	+2.7
42	20-22	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+2.6
43	21-22	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+2.1
44	21-23	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+2.9
45	22-23	CO ST	COLO	Attack err	Sofia Zabjek	blk Barbora Rakauskaite, Ana Burilovic	+2.1
46	22-24	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Kekua Richards, Sofia Zabjek	+3.3
47	23-24	CO ST	COLO	Attack err	Eve Wilson	blk Lily Dwinell, Cayla Payne	+1.9
48	23-25	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson		+4.3
Set 3
1	0-1	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	blk Kekua Richards, Maria Brun	+0.8
2	0-2	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.8
3	0-3	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	blk Kekua Richards, Maria Brun	+0.7
4	1-3	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.5
5	1-4	COLO	CO ST	Serve err	COLO server		+0.5
6	1-5	CO ST	CO ST	Ace	CO ST server	aced Peyton Neal	+0.6
7	2-5	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.4
8	2-6	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Sydney Jordan	blk Sofia Zabjek, Kekua Richards	+0.5
9	2-7	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.6
10	3-7	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Sydney Jordan	set Tinons Munar galmes	+0.4
11	4-7	COLO	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.6
12	4-8	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
13	5-8	CO ST	COLO×4	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.5
14	6-8	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Erin Debiec		+0.8
15	7-8	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Eve Wilson		+0.9
16	8-8	COLO	COLO×4	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Barbora Rakauskaite, Lily Dwinell	+1.0
17	8-9	COLO	CO ST×3	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	blk Eve Wilson, Halle Jameson	+0.7
18	8-10	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+1.0
19	8-11	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.9
20	9-11	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Barbora Rakauskaite	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.6
21	9-12	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.6
22	10-12	CO ST	COLO	Attack err	Ella Stowell	set Eve Wilson	+0.6
23	10-13	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.7
24	11-13	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Cayla Payne	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.6
25	11-14	COLO	CO ST×5	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.7
26	11-15	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.8
27	11-16	CO ST	CO ST×5	Ace	CO ST server	aced Avery Bolles	+0.6
28	11-17	CO ST	CO ST×5	Attack err	Cayla Payne	blk Halle Jameson	+0.4
29	11-18	CO ST	CO ST×5	Attack err	Ana Burilovic	blk Kekua Richards, Sofia Zabjek	+0.3
30	12-18	CO ST	COLO	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.1
31	12-19	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
32	13-19	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.1
33	13-20	COLO	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
34	13-21	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Sydney Jordan		+0.1
35	13-22	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Sydney Jordan		+0.0
36	14-22	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Ana Burilovic	set Tinons Munar galmes	+0.0
37	14-23	COLO	CO ST	Kill	Hayden Grimes		+0.0
38	15-23	CO ST	COLO	Kill	Lily Dwinell	set Jenna Ylivainio	+0.0
39	15-24	COLO	CO ST	Attack err	Lily Dwinell	blk Erin Debiec	+0.0
40	15-25	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Ana Burilovic		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Colorado first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.