Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on YouTube

Colorado St. def. Utah St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Colorado St. 93.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Colorado St. won at Utah St. 3-2 (24-26, 25-23, 25-22, 17-25, 15-12) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Maria Brun led Colorado St. with 15 kills; Utah St.'s Olivia Ruy had a match-high 25.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set12345Sets
CO ST24252517153
UT ST26232225122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.412 on 34 swings: Maria Brun and Colorado St. edged Utah St.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Colorado St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Colorado St. went in as RallyIQ's 94% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Colorado St. 6–2 Utah St.

    Down 2–6, Utah St. scored 4 straight to tie it at 6.

    Colorado St. 95% → 72%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Colorado St. 9–9 Utah St.

    3 straight Colorado St. points broke a 9–9 tie and made it 12–9.

    Colorado St. 70% → 95%

Utah St. above 50Colorado St. belowMax swing 10.4%

Colorado St.Utah St.

Sideout %
Colorado St. 56.5·Utah St. 57.5
Break %
Colorado St. 42.5·Utah St. 43.5
Hitting
Colorado St. .112·Utah St. .176
Longest run
Colorado St. 5·Utah St. 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Utah St. above 50 · Colorado St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+10.4% UT STrally 214 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.4% to Utah St. — set 5, CO ST 8-8 UT ST. Attack error by Halle Jameson. UT ST win probability 19% → 29%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CO ST 92.9%7.1% UT ST

Colorado St. wins

3-0
50.2%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
11.8%

Utah St. wins

3-0
0.9%
3-1
2.1%
3-2
4.1%
CO ST break %
46.7% vs this opp
UT ST break %
35.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Halle JamesonAttack error+10.4%

    Attack error by Halle Jameson

    Set 5 · CO ST 8-8 UT ST · UT ST 19% → 29%

  2. 02

    Ava Nakai stuffed by Eve Wilson & Erin Debiec

    Set 5 · CO ST 11-9 UT ST · CO ST 78% → 88%

  3. 03
    Sami BlackettKill+9.0%

    Kill by Sami Blackett (set by Olivia Tukuafu)

    Set 5 · CO ST 6-6 UT ST · UT ST 19% → 28%

  4. 04
    Colorado St.Ace+7.9%

    Colorado St. ace on Lily LaFlesch

    Set 5 · CO ST 8-6 UT ST · CO ST 78% → 86%

  5. 05

    Kill by Olivia Tukuafu (set by Sami Blackett)

    Set 5 · CO ST 9-9 UT ST · UT ST 22% → 30%

  6. 06

    Ava Nakai stuffed by Eve Wilson & Sofia Zabjek

    Set 5 · CO ST 10-9 UT ST · CO ST 70% → 78%

  7. 07
    Solia AngilauAttack error+7.1%

    Attack error by Solia Angilau

    Set 5 · CO ST 9-8 UT ST · CO ST 71% → 78%

  8. 08
    Addy CookAttack error+7.0%

    Attack error by Addy Cook

    Set 5 · CO ST 12-9 UT ST · CO ST 88% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515134.4121119012218
511434.20600050031.512.5
56529.0341115018512
571151-.078010510219
57322.182000500429
54210.200380091052.56.5
51011.0001001900001
5000–6002330000
4000–012200001
1157-.571000100001
Team totals5231188.112474483522414106
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
525455.38200020153.528.5
513954.07430410302114
59118.444531215002111
5101045.00000020010.510.5
57422.13601250031.59.5
5328.125000300636
5000–2121300001
5000–6132910001
5000–1121500001
2012-.500000000000
Team totals6731204.1766551594411910.5108

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Colorado St. vs Utah St.

Season series · Colorado St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CO ST · UT ST 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 3 CO STUT ST 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 CO STUT ST 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 5 CO STUT ST 4

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 4 CO STUT ST 4

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 3 CO STUT ST 4

Bars above the line = Utah St. leads, below = Colorado St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Colorado St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
17%2/12
2
43%9/21
41%7/17
3
45%9/20
31%4/13
4
57%8/14
62%13/21
5
80%8/10
50%8/16
6
62%8/13
33%4/12
All
55%53/96
42%38/91

Utah St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
36%5/14
2
63%10/16
48%10/21
3
44%8/18
61%14/23
4
44%8/18
56%10/18
5
62%8/13
0%0/8
6
73%8/11
33%4/12
All
58%53/91
45%43/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

214 rallies

#CO ST-UT STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CO STCO STBlockedAva Nakaiblk Maria Brun, Kekua Richards+0.7
21-1CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.5
32-1UT STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+0.5
42-2CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.5
52-3UT STUT STKillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+0.9
63-3UT STCO STBlockedSami Blackettblk Kekua Richards, Sofia Zabjek+0.6
74-3CO STCO STBlockedSolia Angilaublk Eve Wilson+0.8
84-4CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.6
94-5UT STUT STAceUtah St.aced Karsyn Fetzer+1.0
105-5UT STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+0.6
116-5CO STCO STAttack errSami Blackett+0.8
126-6CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafuset Sami Blackett+0.6
137-6UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+0.6
148-6CO STCO STAceColorado St.aced Sami Blackett+0.8
158-7CO STUT STKillSolia Angilauset Olivia Tukuafu+0.5
169-7UT STCO ST×3KillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+0.5
1710-7CO STCO ST×3AceColorado St.aced Sami Blackett+0.6
1811-7CO STCO ST×3Attack errAva Nakai+0.5
1911-8CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafuset Lily LaFlesch+0.3
2012-8UT STCO STKillElla Stowellset Erin Debiec+0.3
2112-9CO STUT STAttack errElla Stowell+0.3
2213-9UT STCO STBad setOlivia Tukuafu+0.3
2314-9CO STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+0.4
2414-10CO STUT ST×4KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.2
2514-11UT STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+0.5
2614-12UT STUT ST×4BlockedKekua Richardsblk Olivia Ruy+0.7
2714-13UT STUT ST×4BlockedKekua Richardsblk Olivia Ruy, Sami Blackett, Solia Angilau+1.0
2815-13UT STCO ST×3Serve errUtah St.+0.7
2916-13CO STCO ST×3Bad setOlivia Tukuafu+0.8
3017-13CO STCO ST×3KillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+0.6
3117-14CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.3
3218-14UT STCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+0.4
3318-15CO STUT STAttack errHalle Jameson+0.3
3419-15UT STCO STKillErin Debiecset Karsyn Fetzer+0.4
3520-15CO STCO STAttack errAva Nakai+0.4
3620-16CO STUT ST×3KillAva Nakaiset Solia Angilau+0.2
3720-17UT STUT ST×3AceUtah St.aced Halle Jameson+0.4
3820-18UT STUT ST×3Attack errElla Stowell+0.8
3921-18UT STCO STBlockedAva Nakaiblk Eve Wilson, Erin Debiec+0.7
4021-19CO STUT STServe errColorado St.+0.5
4122-19UT STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+0.7
4222-20CO STUT ST×5KillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+0.5
4322-21UT STUT ST×5BlockedSofia Zabjekblk Olivia Ruy, Sophie Scott+1.4
4422-22UT STUT ST×5Attack errElla Stowell+2.4
4522-23UT STUT ST×5BlockedElla Stowellblk Sami Blackett, Sophie Scott+3.7
4622-24UT STUT ST×5BlockedElla Stowellblk Olivia Ruy, Sophie Scott+4.3
4723-24UT STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+1.5
4824-24CO STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+5.1
4924-25CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+3.2
5024-26UT STUT STAceUtah St.aced Erin Debiec+6.2
Set 2
11-0UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+1.1
21-1CO STUT ST×3Attack errSofia Zabjek+1.3
31-2UT STUT ST×3KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+2.2
41-3UT STUT ST×3KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+2.5
52-3UT STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.5
63-3CO STCO STKillHalle Jamesonset Karsyn Fetzer+2.2
73-4CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Lily LaFlesch+1.7
84-4UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+1.4
94-5CO STUT ST×3Attack errEve Wilson+1.7
104-6UT STUT ST×3Attack errEve Wilson+2.8
114-7UT STUT ST×3KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+3.2
125-7UT STCO ST×5BlockedSami Blackettblk Eve Wilson, Erin Debiec+1.8
136-7CO STCO ST×5KillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+2.7
147-7CO STCO ST×5KillErin Debiecset Karsyn Fetzer+2.5
158-7CO STCO ST×5BlockedSami Blackettblk Eve Wilson, Erin Debiec+2.3
169-7CO STCO ST×5BlockedSolia Angilaublk Maria Brun+2.0
179-8CO STUT STKillSolia Angilauset Justyna Novakova+1.4
1810-8UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.3
1911-8CO STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.7
2011-9CO STUT STKillSolia Angilauset Olivia Tukuafu+1.1
2112-9UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.1
2212-10CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafu+1.1
2313-10UT STCO STBlockedOlivia Ruyblk Sofia Zabjek, Kekua Richards+1.2
2413-11CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.2
2513-12UT STUT STBlockedHalle Jamesonblk Olivia Ruy, Sophie Scott+2.3
2614-12UT STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+1.6
2714-13CO STUT ST×4KillSophie Scottset Olivia Tukuafu+1.7
2814-14UT STUT ST×4Attack errEve Wilson+3.2
2914-15UT STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Lily LaFlesch+3.9
3014-16UT STUT ST×4Attack errHalle Jameson+4.6
3115-16UT STCO ST×4KillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+2.6
3216-16CO STCO ST×4Attack errSami Blackett+4.0
3317-16CO STCO ST×4KillHalle Jamesonset Maria Brun+3.7
3418-16CO STCO ST×4BlockedOlivia Ruyblk Eve Wilson, Halle Jameson+3.1
3518-17CO STUT STKillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+2.0
3619-17UT STCO STBlockedSolia Angilaublk Halle Jameson, Eve Wilson+2.2
3719-18CO STUT STAttack errErin Debiec+2.1
3820-18UT STCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+2.3
3920-19CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafuset Lily LaFlesch+2.3
4021-19UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+2.6
4121-20CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+2.4
4222-20UT STCO STAttack errAva Nakai+2.8
4323-20CO STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+2.9
4423-21CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.1
4524-21UT STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+1.8
4624-22CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafu+0.7
4724-23UT STUT STAttack errHalle Jameson+2.9
4825-23UT STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+4.5
Set 3
10-1CO STUT STAttack errHalle Jameson+1.3
21-1UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.1
31-2CO STUT STKillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+1.3
42-2UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+1.2
52-3CO STUT ST×4KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.4
62-4UT STUT ST×4KillSolia Angilauset Olivia Tukuafu+2.3
72-5UT STUT ST×4BlockedSofia Zabjekblk Olivia Tukuafu, Solia Angilau+2.6
82-6UT STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Sadie Warren+2.8
93-6UT STCO ST×5KillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.5
104-6CO STCO ST×5KillKekua Richardsset Karsyn Fetzer+2.3
115-6CO STCO ST×5KillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+2.3
126-6CO STCO ST×5Attack errOlivia Tukuafu+2.1
137-6CO STCO ST×5Attack errSami Blackett+1.9
147-7CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafuset Justyna Novakova+1.4
158-7UT STCO ST×3Serve errUtah St.+1.3
169-7CO STCO ST×3KillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.7
1710-7CO STCO ST×3KillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+1.4
1810-8CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+0.9
1911-8UT STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+0.9
2012-8CO STCO STAttack errAva Nakai+1.1
2112-9CO STUT ST×4KillSophie Scottset Olivia Tukuafu+0.7
2212-10UT STUT ST×4AceUtah St.aced Karsyn Fetzer+1.4
2312-11UT STUT ST×4Attack errHalle Jameson+1.9
2412-12UT STUT ST×4BlockedHalle Jamesonblk Olivia Ruy, Sophie Scott+2.5
2513-12UT STCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+1.6
2613-13CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.8
2713-14UT STUT STAceUtah St.aced Karsyn Fetzer+3.2
2814-14UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+2.0
2915-14CO STCO STBad setOlivia Tukuafu+2.8
3015-15CO STUT ST×3KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+2.0
3115-16UT STUT ST×3KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+3.6
3215-17UT STUT ST×3KillOlivia Tukuafuset Lily LaFlesch+4.2
3316-17UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+2.4
3416-18CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+3.2
3517-18UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+2.5
3618-18CO STCO STAttack errSami Blackett+4.0
3718-19CO STUT STServe errColorado St.+3.2
3819-19UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+2.8
3919-20CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+3.6
4020-20UT STCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+3.1
4120-21CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+4.0
4221-21UT STCO STKillErin Debiecset Karsyn Fetzer+3.5
4322-21CO STCO STAttack errSophie Scott+5.4
4422-22CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+3.7
4523-22UT STCO ST×3KillMaria Brunset Eve Wilson+4.1
4624-22CO STCO ST×3KillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+4.9
4725-22CO STCO ST×3AceColorado St.aced Sami Blackett+2.1
Set 4
10-1UT STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.3
21-1UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+0.8
32-1CO STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+1.1
42-2CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.8
53-2UT STCO STBad setOlivia Tukuafu+0.7
63-3CO STUT ST×4KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+0.9
73-4UT STUT ST×4KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.5
83-5UT STUT ST×4KillSolia Angilauset Olivia Tukuafu+1.7
93-6UT STUT ST×4KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.9
104-6UT STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+1.1
115-6CO STCO STAttack errSami Blackett+1.6
125-7CO STUT ST×4KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.3
135-8UT STUT ST×4KillOlivia Tukuafuset Karsyn Fetzer+2.1
145-9UT STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+2.2
155-10UT STUT ST×4Attack errKekua Richards+2.3
166-10UT STCO STKillKekua Richardsset Olivia Tukuafu+1.1
176-11CO STUT STKillSolia Angilauset Olivia Tukuafu+1.6
187-11UT STCO STAttack errAva Nakai+1.2
197-12CO STUT STAttack errHalle Jameson+1.7
208-12UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+1.2
218-13CO STUT STBlockedMaria Brunblk Olivia Tukuafu, Sophie Scott+1.7
229-13UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Karsyn Fetzer+1.2
239-14CO STUT ST×3KillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+1.7
249-15UT STUT ST×3KillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+2.2
259-16UT STUT ST×3Attack errErin Debiec+1.9
2610-16UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+0.7
2710-17CO STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.3
2811-17UT STCO ST×4KillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+0.7
2912-17CO STCO ST×4KillHalle Jamesonset Erin Debiec+1.4
3013-17CO STCO ST×4KillKekua Richardsset Erin Debiec+1.8
3114-17CO STCO ST×4Attack errOlivia Ruy+2.2
3214-18CO STUT STAttack errSofia Zabjek+2.1
3314-19UT STUT STAttack errHalle Jameson+2.6
3415-19UT STCO STKillSofia Zabjekset Erin Debiec+1.0
3515-20CO STUT STKillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+1.8
3616-20UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+1.0
3716-21CO STUT ST×3BlockedEve Wilsonblk Ava Nakai, Solia Angilau+1.8
3816-22UT STUT ST×3Attack errHalle Jameson+1.6
3916-23UT STUT ST×3Attack errEve Wilson+0.8
4017-23UT STCO STBlockedAva Nakaiblk Erin Debiec, Eve Wilson+0.1
4117-24CO STUT STKillSophie Scottset Olivia Tukuafu+0.3
4217-25UT STUT STKillOlivia Ruyset Olivia Tukuafu+1.3
Set 5
10-1CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+5.6
21-1UT STCO ST×3KillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+4.9
32-1CO ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+6.9
43-1CO STCO ST×3Attack errSophie Scott+5.9
53-2CO STUT STServe errColorado St.+4.1
64-2UT STCO ST×3KillErin Debiecset Hayden Grimes+4.0
75-2CO STCO ST×3Attack errSami Blackett+5.0
86-2CO STCO ST×3BlockedOlivia Ruyblk Maria Brun, Kekua Richards+3.7
96-3CO STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+2.1
106-4UT STUT ST×4Bad setErin Debiec+4.6
116-5UT STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+6.6
126-6UT STUT ST×4KillSami Blackettset Olivia Tukuafu+9.0
137-6UT STCO STServe errUtah St.+6.0
148-6CO STCO STAceColorado St.aced Lily LaFlesch+7.9
158-7CO STUT STKillSolia Angilauset Olivia Tukuafu+5.1
168-8UT STUT STAttack errHalle Jameson+10.4
179-8UT STCO STAttack errSolia Angilau+7.1
189-9CO STUT STKillOlivia Tukuafuset Sami Blackett+7.9
1910-9UT STCO ST×3BlockedAva Nakaiblk Eve Wilson, Sofia Zabjek+7.8
2011-9CO STCO ST×3BlockedAva Nakaiblk Eve Wilson, Erin Debiec+10.1
2112-9CO STCO ST×3Attack errAddy Cook+7.0
2212-10CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+3.2
2313-10UT STCO STKillEve Wilsonset Erin Debiec+4.6
2413-11CO STUT STKillAva Nakaiset Olivia Tukuafu+2.7
2514-11UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+4.5
2614-12CO STUT STServe errColorado St.+1.8
2715-12UT STCO STKillMaria Brunset Erin Debiec+3.9

Score shown after each rally, Colorado St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).