FinalTue, Sep 15, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

3:0

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Harvard def. Merrimack 3–0

(25-10, 25-16, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HARV	25	25	25	3
MERMCK	10	16	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERMCK above 50 · HARV below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Merrimack — set 1, HARV 6-4 MERMCK. Attack error by Ali Farquhar. MERMCK win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HARV 98.8%1.2% MERMCK

Harvard wins

3-0

72.0%

3-1

22.4%

3-2

4.3%

Merrimack wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.8%

HARV break %: 55.5% vs this opp
MERMCK break %: 38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ali FarquharAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Ali Farquhar
Set 1 · HARV 6-4 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%
02
Mckenna ShotwellAttack error+0.1%
Mckenna Shotwell stuffed by Ali Farquhar
Set 1 · HARV 1-0 MERMCK · HARV 99% → 99%
03
Sofia RossiKill+0.1%
Kill by Sofia Rossi (set by Sophia Wei)
Set 1 · HARV 2-0 MERMCK · HARV 99% → 99%
04
Sofia RossiAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Sofia Rossi
Set 3 · HARV 20-19 MERMCK · MERMCK 0% → 0%
05
MERMCK serverAce+0.1%
Merrimack ace on Yvette Easton
Set 3 · HARV 12-13 MERMCK · MERMCK 0% → 0%
06
Ali FarquharKill+0.1%
Kill by Ali Farquhar (set by Yvette Easton)
Set 1 · HARV 7-4 MERMCK · HARV 99% → 99%
07
Sofia RossiKill+0.1%
Kill by Sofia Rossi (set by Catlin Shao)
Set 3 · HARV 21-19 MERMCK · HARV 100% → 100%
08
Masina OgbechieAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Masina Ogbechie
Set 3 · HARV 16-16 MERMCK · MERMCK 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Harvardaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Sofia RossiOH	3	10	4	25	.240	1	4	1	7	1	0	2	1	15
13Ali FarquharOH	3	9	2	21	.333	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
21Ryleigh PattersonMB	3	6	0	11	.545	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
18Riley ResmerMB	3	6	0	8	.750	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
19Kayla NwabuezeMB	3	3	3	14	.000	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	3
1Sophia WeiS	3	1	0	1	1.000	18	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	3
4Masina OgbechieOH	3	4	1	10	.300	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
16Yvette EastonL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	0	13	1	0	0	0	0
2Catlin ShaoS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	0
44Jordan ShelorL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Bridget EganOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	0	2
11Alicia GuoOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	10	94	.309	37	8	5	51	6	1	8	5	75

Merrimackhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	3	6	5	24	.042	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	7
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	3	6	4	22	.091	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
17Kaitlyn OxceusOH	3	2	0	5	.400	0	3	2	1	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
7Tamilore Afolalu	3	4	3	16	.063	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	0	4
13Mia IzzoMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Sophia DeBonisS	3	0	0	1	.000	10	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
20Devon Lowe	3	1	1	4	.000	7	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
15Gabrielle Moore	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
14Maiella Blandin	2	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Sienna Franks	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Avry BryantOPP	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
6Fabiola BetancourtOH	1	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
2Natalia Zelubowski	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Elizabeth KenneyS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	19	99	.051	23	6	6	39	8	1	4	3	46

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 12 HARV · MERMCK 4

Set 1

25-10

Longest run 9 HARVMERMCK 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 12 HARVMERMCK 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 HARVMERMCK 4

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Harvard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Harvard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	84%21/25
2	45%5/11	67%10/15
3	71%5/7	29%2/7
4	80%4/5	43%3/7
5	50%4/8	73%11/15
6	50%4/8	0%0/4
All	58%28/48	64%47/73

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	18%5/28	38%3/8
2	71%5/7	38%3/8
3	56%5/9	44%4/9
4	27%4/15	17%1/6
5	100%4/4	43%3/7
6	30%3/10	60%6/10
All	36%26/73	42%20/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

121 rallies

Rally log

#	HARV-MERMCK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERMCK	HARV×5	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Ali Farquhar	+0.1
2	2-0	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
3	3-0	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.1
4	4-0	HARV	HARV×5	Ace	HARV server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.1
5	5-0	HARV	HARV×5	Ace	HARV server	aced Team	+0.1
6	5-1	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
7	5-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
8	6-2	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
9	6-3	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Gabrielle Moore	+0.1
10	6-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Ali Farquhar		+0.1
11	7-4	MERMCK	HARV×3	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Yvette Easton	+0.1
12	8-4	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
13	9-4	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sofia Rossi	+0.1
14	9-5	HARV	MERMCK	Serve err	HARV server		+0.1
15	10-5	MERMCK	HARV×9	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
16	11-5	HARV	HARV×9	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Riley Resmer, Masina Ogbechie	+0.1
17	12-5	HARV	HARV×9	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.0
18	13-5	HARV	HARV×9	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
19	14-5	HARV	HARV×9	Attack err	Mia Izzo		+0.0
20	15-5	HARV	HARV×9	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
21	16-5	HARV	HARV×9	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
22	17-5	HARV	HARV×9	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Masina Ogbechie	+0.0
23	18-5	HARV	HARV×9	Ace	HARV server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.0
24	18-6	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
25	18-7	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
26	19-7	MERMCK	HARV	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
27	19-8	HARV	MERMCK×3	Kill	Avry Bryant	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
28	19-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
29	19-10	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Bad set	Catlin Shao		+0.0
30	20-10	MERMCK	HARV×6	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
31	21-10	HARV	HARV×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
32	22-10	HARV	HARV×6	Attack err	Avry Bryant		+0.0
33	23-10	HARV	HARV×6	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
34	24-10	HARV	HARV×6	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
35	25-10	HARV	HARV×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	HARV	HARV×12	Attack err	Natalia Zelubowski	blk Ryleigh Patterson, Sofia Rossi	+0.1
2	2-0	HARV	HARV×12	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson	+0.1
3	3-0	HARV	HARV×12	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
4	4-0	HARV	HARV×12	Ace	HARV server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.1
5	5-0	HARV	HARV×12	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
6	6-0	HARV	HARV×12	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.0
7	7-0	HARV	HARV×12	Ace	HARV server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.0
8	8-0	HARV	HARV×12	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Ryleigh Patterson	+0.0
9	9-0	HARV	HARV×12	Kill	Sophia Wei	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
10	10-0	HARV	HARV×12	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
11	11-0	HARV	HARV×12	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.0
12	12-0	HARV	HARV×12	Attack err	Fabiola Betancourt		+0.0
13	12-1	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
14	13-1	MERMCK	HARV	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.0
15	13-2	HARV	MERMCK	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+0.0
16	14-2	MERMCK	HARV	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
17	15-2	HARV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
18	15-3	HARV	MERMCK	Attack err	Ali Farquhar	blk Fabiola Betancourt	+0.0
19	16-3	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
20	16-4	HARV	MERMCK	Serve err	HARV server		+0.0
21	16-5	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
22	17-5	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
23	17-6	HARV	MERMCK×3	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
24	17-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Sofia Rossi		+0.0
25	17-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Devon Lowe	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
26	18-8	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
27	18-9	HARV	MERMCK	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+0.0
28	19-9	MERMCK	HARV×3	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
29	20-9	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Yvette Easton	+0.0
30	21-9	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
31	21-10	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
32	22-10	MERMCK	HARV	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
33	23-10	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Fabiola Betancourt		+0.0
34	23-11	HARV	MERMCK×4	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
35	23-12	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze	blk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.0
36	23-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Alicia Guo	+0.0
37	23-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Kayla Nwabueze	+0.0
38	24-14	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
39	24-15	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
40	24-16	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Team	+0.0
41	25-16	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MERMCK	HARV×3	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
2	2-0	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
3	3-0	HARV	HARV×3	Ace	HARV server	aced Team	+0.0
4	3-1	HARV	MERMCK×3	Serve err	HARV server		+0.0
5	3-2	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
6	3-3	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Sofia Rossi	+0.1
7	4-3	MERMCK	HARV	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
8	5-3	HARV	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer		+0.0
9	5-4	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
10	6-4	MERMCK	HARV	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
11	7-4	HARV	HARV	Bad set	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
12	7-5	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
13	8-5	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
14	9-5	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Maiella Blandin		+0.0
15	9-6	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
16	9-7	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sofia Rossi	blk Maiella Blandin, Kaitlyn Oxceus	+0.0
17	10-7	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
18	10-8	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
19	10-9	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Bridget Egan	+0.1
20	11-9	MERMCK	HARV	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Ryleigh Patterson, Sofia Rossi	+0.0
21	12-9	HARV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Yvette Easton	+0.0
22	12-10	HARV	MERMCK×4	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
23	12-11	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
24	12-12	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Sofia Rossi		+0.1
25	12-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Yvette Easton	+0.1
26	13-13	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
27	14-13	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.1
28	14-14	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
29	15-14	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
30	15-15	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
31	16-15	MERMCK	HARV	Attack err	Devon Lowe		+0.1
32	16-16	HARV	MERMCK	Attack err	Masina Ogbechie		+0.1
33	17-16	MERMCK	HARV×3	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
34	18-16	HARV	HARV×3	Ace	HARV server	aced Team	+0.1
35	19-16	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
36	19-17	HARV	MERMCK	Serve err	HARV server		+0.1
37	20-17	MERMCK	HARV	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.1
38	20-18	HARV	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+0.1
39	20-19	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sofia Rossi		+0.1
40	21-19	MERMCK	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
41	22-19	HARV	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
42	22-20	HARV	MERMCK	Serve err	HARV server		+0.1
43	23-20	MERMCK	HARV×3	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
44	24-20	HARV	HARV×3	Ace	HARV server	aced Kaitlyn Oxceus	+0.0
45	25-20	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Harvard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.