Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026

Rider def. Canisius 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Rider 54.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Rider beat visiting Canisius 3-2 (25-22, 25-18, 16-25, 22-25, 15-12) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Rylah Robinson led Rider with 14 kills; Canisius' Emma Isroff had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set12345Sets
CANISI22182525122
RIDER25251622153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.448 on 29 swings: Rylah Robinson and Rider edged Canisius.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Rider's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Rider 54% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Canisius 2–3 Rider

    Canisius scored 3 straight to turn a 2–3 deficit into a 5–3 lead. The match swung to Canisius.

    Rider 60% → 34%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Canisius 10–9 Rider

    3 straight Rider points turned a 9–10 deficit into a 12–10 lead. The match swung to Rider.

    Rider 39% → 79%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Canisius 11–12 Rider

    Rider won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    Rider 69% → >99%

Rider above 50Canisius belowMax swing 14.9%

CanisiusRider

Sideout %
Canisius 59.8·Rider 60.2
Break %
Canisius 39.8·Rider 40.2
Hitting
Canisius .275·Rider .245
Longest run
Canisius 5·Rider 6

Rylah Robinson
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 14 K, .448, 15 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Rider above 50 · Canisius below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+14.9% RIDERrally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.9% to Rider — set 5, CANISI 10-11 RIDER. Kill by Rylah Robinson (set by Makenna Mason). RIDER win probability 50% → 65%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CANISI 24.8%75.2% RIDER

Canisius wins

3-0
4.4%
3-1
8.5%
3-2
12.0%

Rider wins

3-0
27.2%
3-1
28.7%
3-2
19.3%
CANISI break %
40.1% vs this opp
RIDER break %
45.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Rylah RobinsonKill+14.9%

    Kill by Rylah Robinson (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 5 · CANISI 10-11 RIDER · RIDER 50% → 65%

  2. 02
    Rylah RobinsonKill+14.5%

    Kill by Rylah Robinson (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 5 · CANISI 10-12 RIDER · RIDER 65% → 79%

  3. 03
    Tori BonacciKill+13.4%

    Kill by Tori Bonacci (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 5 · CANISI 11-13 RIDER · RIDER 69% → 83%

  4. 04
    Emma IsroffAttack error+12.1%

    Attack error by Emma Isroff

    Set 5 · CANISI 11-14 RIDER · RIDER 83% → 95%

  5. 05
    Emily HelmersKill+11.1%

    Kill by Emily Helmers (set by Anna Rich)

    Set 5 · CANISI 10-9 RIDER · CANISI 50% → 61%

  6. 06
    CanisiusService error+10.9%

    Canisius service error

    Set 5 · CANISI 10-10 RIDER · RIDER 39% → 50%

  7. 07
    Brenda ReynagaBad set+10.8%

    Bad set by Brenda Reynaga

    Set 5 · CANISI 7-7 RIDER · RIDER 39% → 50%

  8. 08
    Emily HelmersKill+10.2%

    Kill by Emily Helmers (set by Anna Rich)

    Set 5 · CANISI 9-8 RIDER · CANISI 50% → 60%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516530.3671526002122
512842.09510413500012
59226.269200910009
55213.231101200427
5304.75000000010.53.5
5102.500270070010.51.5
513227.40712440010.515.5
5104.250230030010.51.5
5001.0002021520000
1000–001000000
Team totals6019149.2755871459110105102
Riderhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512223.43503220052.517.5
511220.4500000006314
59636.08300010052.511.5
5205.4004800900002
5000–012710001
14617-.11800012010.54.5
514129.4480003002115
56421.09510130031.57.5
5000–032420003
5000–5331720003
5000–0121300001
Team totals5821151.24554111260702211103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Canisius vs Rider

Season series · Rider leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CANISI · RIDER 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 5 CANISIRIDER 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 CANISIRIDER 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 5 CANISIRIDER 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 3 CANISIRIDER 3

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 3 CANISIRIDER 3

Bars above the line = Rider leads, below = Canisius leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Canisius

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
55%11/20
2
69%9/13
41%7/17
3
75%9/12
25%3/12
4
69%9/13
25%3/12
5
78%7/9
20%2/10
6
44%7/16
22%2/9
All
67%52/78
35%28/80

Rider

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
44%7/16
2
53%9/17
23%3/13
3
90%9/10
18%2/11
4
67%8/12
36%5/14
5
89%8/9
27%3/11
6
54%7/13
46%6/13
All
65%52/80
33%26/78

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#CANISI-RIDERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CANISIRIDER×6KillAubrey Bakerset Simone Langford+1.9
20-2RIDERRIDER×6BlockedAzoria Davisblk Anja Kelly, Tori Bonacci+2.3
30-3RIDERRIDER×6KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.2
40-4RIDERRIDER×6KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+2.1
50-5RIDERRIDER×6KillAubrey Baker+1.9
60-6RIDER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
71-6RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.2
82-6CANISICANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.7
92-7CANISIRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.6
103-7RIDERCANISI×5Attack errAubrey Baker+1.4
114-7CANISICANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Brenda Reynaga+2.0
125-7CANISICANISI×5Attack errAubrey Baker+2.3
136-7CANISICANISI×5BlockedAubrey Bakerblk Emily Helmers, Emma Isroff+2.5
147-7CANISICANISI×5KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.7
157-8CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+2.3
168-8RIDERCANISI×5KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.3
179-8CANISICANISI×5KillEmily Helmersset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.9
1810-8CANISICANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.9
1911-8CANISICANISI×5AceCanisiusaced Aubrey Baker+2.8
2012-8CANISICANISI×5AceCanisiusaced Aubrey Baker+2.6
2112-9CANISIRIDER×4KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.8
2212-10RIDERRIDER×4KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.6
2312-11RIDERRIDER×4Attack errEmily Helmers+3.0
2412-12RIDERRIDER×4AceRideraced Azoria Davis+3.2
2513-12RIDERCANISIServe errRider+2.7
2613-13CANISIRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.7
2713-14RIDERRIDERBlockedAzoria Davisblk Anja Kelly, Molly Rohde+3.4
2814-14RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+2.8
2914-15CANISIRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.9
3015-15RIDERCANISI×3Attack errAnja Kelly+2.9
3116-15CANISICANISI×3Bad setMakenna Mason+3.9
3217-15CANISICANISI×3BlockedAubrey Bakerblk Anna Rich, McKenna Corcoran+3.9
3317-16CANISIRIDER×3KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.9
3417-17RIDERRIDER×3BlockedEmma Isroffblk Aubrey Baker, Tori Bonacci+4.0
3517-18RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Julia Lenik+4.3
3618-18RIDERCANISIAttack errAubrey Baker+3.5
3718-19CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Simone Langford+3.8
3818-20RIDERRIDERAttack errJulia Lenik+4.5
3919-20RIDERCANISI×3KillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+3.3
4020-20CANISICANISI×3Attack errTori Bonacci+5.0
4121-20CANISICANISI×3Attack errAubrey Baker+5.7
4221-21CANISIRIDER×3Serve errCanisius+4.5
4321-22RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Brenda Reynaga+6.4
4421-23RIDERRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+6.1
4522-23RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+3.7
4622-24CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+5.9
4722-25RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Julia Lenik+4.3
Set 2
11-0RIDERCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.9
21-1CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.8
32-1RIDERCANISI×3Serve errRider+1.9
43-1CANISICANISI×3KillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+2.4
54-1CANISICANISI×3KillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+2.3
64-2CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+1.8
74-3RIDERRIDERBlockedHannah Kosblk Cecilia DeCaro, Tori Bonacci+2.3
85-3RIDERCANISIServe errRider+2.0
95-4CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.9
105-5RIDERRIDERAceRider+2.5
116-5RIDERCANISIServe errRider+2.1
126-6CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.1
137-6RIDERCANISIAttack errTori Bonacci+2.2
147-7CANISIRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.1
157-8RIDERRIDERBlockedJulia Lenikblk Anja Kelly, Molly Rohde+2.7
168-8RIDERCANISIKillMcKenna Corcoranset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.2
179-8CANISICANISIKillJulia Lenik+2.8
189-9CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Simone Langford+2.3
1910-9RIDERCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Emma Isroff+2.4
2010-10CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.3
2111-10RIDERCANISIServe errRider+2.4
2211-11CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.4
2312-11RIDERCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich+2.5
2412-12CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+2.5
2512-13RIDERRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+3.2
2613-13RIDERCANISIKillMcKenna Corcoranset Anna Rich+2.6
2713-14CANISIRIDER×3Serve errCanisius+2.7
2813-15RIDERRIDER×3BlockedEmma Isroffblk Molly Rohde, Rylah Robinson+3.3
2913-16RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Julia Lenik+3.0
3014-16RIDERCANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.2
3114-17CANISIRIDER×4KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.6
3214-18RIDERRIDER×4KillRylah Robinsonset Simone Langford+2.7
3314-19RIDERRIDER×4BlockedEmma Isroffblk Molly Rohde, Rylah Robinson+2.1
3414-20RIDERRIDER×4Attack errJulia Lenik+1.4
3515-20RIDERCANISI×3Attack errRylah Robinson+0.7
3616-20CANISICANISI×3Attack errMolly Rohde+1.3
3717-20CANISICANISI×3BlockedAnja Kellyblk Emma Isroff, Emily Helmers+2.0
3817-21CANISIRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.3
3917-22RIDERRIDER×3BlockedJulia Lenikblk Anja Kelly, Molly Rohde+1.9
4017-23RIDERRIDER×3Attack errEmily Helmers+1.0
4118-23RIDERCANISIServe errRider+0.3
4218-24CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+0.6
4318-25RIDERRIDERBlockedJulia Lenikblk Cecilia DeCaro, Tori Bonacci+0.2
Set 3
11-0CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Simone Langford+1.5
22-0CANISICANISIBad setMakenna Mason+1.5
32-1CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+1.2
43-1RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+1.2
54-1CANISICANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+1.5
64-2CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+1.1
75-2RIDERCANISIServe errRider+1.2
85-3CANISIRIDERKillCecilia DeCaroset Makenna Mason+1.2
96-3RIDERCANISIKillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+1.3
106-4CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+1.2
117-4RIDERCANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.3
127-5CANISIRIDERKillMakenna Masonset Makenna Mason+1.2
138-5RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.3
149-5CANISICANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.5
159-6CANISIRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.1
169-7RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Julia Lenik+1.5
179-8RIDERRIDER×3KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.7
1810-8RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.5
1910-9CANISIRIDERKillCecilia DeCaroset Makenna Mason+1.4
2011-9RIDERCANISI×3KillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+1.5
2112-9CANISICANISI×3KillJulia Lenikset Makenna Mason+1.8
2213-9CANISICANISI×3Attack errAnja Kelly+1.7
2313-10CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+1.2
2413-11RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Brenda Reynaga+1.7
2514-11RIDERCANISIKillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+1.6
2614-12CANISIRIDERKillCecilia DeCaroset Makenna Mason+1.4
2715-12RIDERCANISIServe errRider+1.6
2815-13CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.4
2916-13RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.7
3016-14CANISIRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.5
3117-14RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.8
3217-15CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.5
3318-15RIDERCANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Azoria Davis+1.8
3419-15CANISICANISI×5KillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+1.9
3520-15CANISICANISI×5BlockedCecilia DeCaroblk Kenslie Warmbrodt, Emily Helmers+1.5
3621-15CANISICANISI×5Attack errCecilia DeCaro+1.0
3722-15CANISICANISI×5AceCanisiusaced Simone Langford+0.5
3822-16CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+0.2
3923-16RIDERCANISI×3Attack errAnja Kelly+0.3
4024-16CANISICANISI×3Attack errAnja Kelly+0.1
4125-16CANISICANISI×3KillHannah Kosset Emily Helmers·
Set 4
10-1RIDERRIDERKillCecilia DeCaroset Makenna Mason+3.0
21-1RIDERCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.5
31-2CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.5
42-2RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+2.5
52-3CANISIRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.6
63-3RIDERCANISIAttack errCecilia DeCaro+2.6
74-3CANISICANISIKillHannah Kosset Julia Lenik+3.3
84-4CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.7
95-4RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+2.7
106-4CANISICANISIAceCanisiusaced Carly Allen+3.4
116-5CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.6
127-5RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+2.8
138-5CANISICANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+3.4
148-6CANISIRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.5
158-7RIDERRIDER×3BlockedJulia Lenikblk Anja Kelly, Molly Rohde+3.4
168-8RIDERRIDER×3Attack errJulia Lenik+3.6
179-8RIDERCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Brenda Reynaga+3.1
1810-8CANISICANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+3.8
1910-9CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.9
2011-9RIDERCANISIServe errRider+3.2
2111-10CANISIRIDER×3KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+3.0
2211-11RIDERRIDER×3KillAnja Kellyset Cecilia DeCaro+4.0
2311-12RIDERRIDER×3AceRider+4.1
2412-12RIDERCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich+3.3
2512-13CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+3.5
2613-13RIDERCANISIBlockedCecilia DeCaroblk Emily Helmers, Hannah Kos+3.5
2713-14CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+3.6
2813-15RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Julia Lenik+4.4
2914-15RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+3.4
3014-16CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+3.7
3115-16RIDERCANISIServe errRider+3.5
3215-17CANISIRIDERAttack errJulia Lenik+3.9
3316-17RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+3.6
3417-17CANISICANISIAttack errMolly Rohde+5.2
3517-18CANISIRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+4.5
3617-19RIDERRIDERAttack errEmma Isroff+5.4
3718-19RIDERCANISI×3Attack errAnja Kelly+4.0
3819-19CANISICANISI×3AceCanisiusaced Olivia DeSaro+5.9
3920-19CANISICANISI×3KillKenslie Warmbrodtset Azoria Davis+6.6
4020-20CANISIRIDERKillCecilia DeCaroset Simone Langford+5.3
4121-20RIDERCANISIServe errRider+6.0
4222-20CANISICANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+7.3
4322-21CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+4.8
4423-21RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+6.7
4523-22CANISIRIDERKillMakenna Masonset Simone Langford+5.0
4624-22RIDERCANISIServe errRider+7.9
4725-22CANISICANISIKillAnna Richset Hannah Kos+5.1
Set 5
10-1CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+6.7
21-1RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+6.7
31-2CANISIRIDERBlockedHannah Kosblk Tori Bonacci, Cecilia DeCaro+6.9
42-2RIDERCANISIKillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+6.9
52-3CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+7.2
63-3RIDERCANISI×3KillMcKenna Corcoranset Anna Rich+7.2
74-3CANISICANISI×3KillAzoria Davisset Anna Rich+9.4
85-3CANISICANISI×3AceCanisiusaced Carly Allen+9.4
95-4CANISIRIDERServe errCanisius+7.1
106-4RIDERCANISIKillJulia Lenikset Kenslie Warmbrodt+8.0
116-5CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+7.4
127-5RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+8.4
137-6CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+7.7
147-7RIDERRIDERBad setBrenda Reynaga+10.8
158-7RIDERCANISIKillEmma Isroffset Kenslie Warmbrodt+9.5
168-8CANISIRIDERKillCecilia DeCaroset Makenna Mason+9.3
179-8RIDERCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich+10.2
189-9CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+10.0
1910-9RIDERCANISIKillEmily Helmersset Anna Rich+11.1
2010-10CANISIRIDER×3Serve errCanisius+10.9
2110-11RIDERRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+14.9
2210-12RIDERRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+14.5
2311-12RIDERCANISIKillHannah Kosset Anna Rich+9.7
2411-13CANISIRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+13.4
2511-14RIDERRIDERAttack errEmma Isroff+12.1
2612-14RIDERCANISIKillAzoria Davisset Kenslie Warmbrodt+4.2
2712-15CANISIRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+9.3

Score shown after each rally, Canisius first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).