Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

American def. Loyola Maryland 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: American 95.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

American beat visiting Loyola Maryland 3-1 (25-19, 25-20, 23-25, 25-21) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. American's Sophie Dufour led with 15 kills, and Bella Marrero added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
LOY MD192025211
AMER252523253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

American took it, mostly on serve.

No single rally moved win probability more than 2.1 points. Loyola Maryland peaked at 11% in Set 4. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave American 95% before first serve.

Loyola MarylandAmerican
  • Break %+8.6 pts
    32.641.2

    40 of 97 on serve vs 28 of 86, so Loyola Maryland's sideout was 58.8%.

  • Hitting+.117
    .180.297

    60 kills, 22 errors vs 44 kills, 22 errors.

  • Longest run+0
    55

    American scored 5 straight in the first set to stretch a 10–8 lead to 15–8. Final score of the set: 25–19.

American above 50Loyola Maryland belowMax swing 2.1%

Loyola MarylandAmerican

Aces
Loyola Maryland 5·American 6
Serve err
Loyola Maryland 7·American 13
Blocks
Loyola Maryland 6·American 50 BS · 12 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Loyola Maryland 44·American 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

American above 50 · Loyola Maryland below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.1% LOY MDrally 183 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Loyola Maryland — set 4, LOY MD 13-11 AMER. Kill by Morgan Crawford (set by Gabi Verdicchio). AMER win probability 93% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LOY MD 3.9%96.1% AMER

Loyola Maryland wins

3-0
0.4%
3-1
1.1%
3-2
2.4%

American wins

3-0
58.8%
3-1
28.6%
3-2
8.6%
LOY MD break %
36.5% vs this opp
AMER break %
50.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Morgan Crawford (set by Gabi Verdicchio)

    Set 4 · LOY MD 13-11 AMER · LOY MD 7% → 9%

  2. 02
    Sophie DufourAttack error+1.8%

    Attack error by Sophie Dufour

    Set 4 · LOY MD 7-3 AMER · LOY MD 9% → 10%

  3. 03
    Ava NepkinAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Ava Nepkin

    Set 4 · LOY MD 13-13 AMER · AMER 92% → 94%

  4. 04
    Addie LoweKill+1.6%

    Kill by Addie Lowe (set by Madison Monahan)

    Set 4 · LOY MD 10-7 AMER · LOY MD 8% → 10%

  5. 05

    Morgan Crawford stuffed by Prinzez Zeck & Deniz Dakak

    Set 4 · LOY MD 13-14 AMER · AMER 94% → 95%

  6. 06
    Salme HollasKill+1.6%

    Kill by Salme Hollas (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 4 · LOY MD 10-9 AMER · AMER 91% → 93%

  7. 07
    Carly SciborskiAttack error+1.5%

    Attack error by Carly Sciborski

    Set 4 · LOY MD 8-4 AMER · LOY MD 9% → 11%

  8. 08
    Ava NepkinKill+1.5%

    Kill by Ava Nepkin (set by Madison Monahan)

    Set 4 · LOY MD 9-6 AMER · LOY MD 8% → 10%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414432.313100130010.514.5
49528.1430116200010
48423.17400000031.59.5
46415.13300201031.57.5
45316.12500000031.56.5
4000–2340600004
4228.000000100213
4000–3021400000
4000–1302400000
Team totals4422122.1804057446012685
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414435.2860037200014
411217.5290001012213
410318.3891121002112
47317.235000400007
4204.5005132600427
4000–0011210000
415428.3930001100015
4000–3221400002
4000–203200000
2011-1.000000000000
1113.000000010001
1045-.800000000000
Team totals6022128.2975761348518598

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Loyola Maryland vs American

Season series · American leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 LOY MD · AMER 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 LOY MDAMER 5

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 2 LOY MDAMER 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 LOY MDAMER 3

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 3 LOY MDAMER 5

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Loyola Maryland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Loyola Maryland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%6/9
38%3/8
2
100%6/6
14%1/7
3
46%6/13
45%5/11
4
67%4/6
38%3/8
5
57%4/7
20%1/5
6
57%4/7
43%3/7
All
63%30/48
35%16/46

American

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%6/10
29%2/7
2
60%6/10
25%2/8
3
71%5/7
33%3/9
4
63%5/8
50%5/10
5
57%4/7
43%3/7
6
100%4/4
43%3/7
All
65%30/46
38%18/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

183 rallies

#LOY MD-AMERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0AMERLOY MD×3Serve errAmerican+0.6
22-0LOY MDLOY MD×3KillAva Nepkinset Gabi Verdicchio+0.8
33-0LOY MDLOY MD×3KillMorgan Crawfordset Addie Huber+0.9
43-1LOY MDAMER×4KillSalme Hollas+0.6
53-2AMER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.7
63-3AMERAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.7
73-4AMERAMER×4KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.6
84-4AMERLOY MDAttack errSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.5
94-5LOY MDAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.5
105-5AMERLOY MDKillElsie Affulset Gabi Verdicchio+0.6
115-6LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+0.5
126-6AMERLOY MDBlockedElise Sterlingblk Morgan Crawford, Elsie Afful+0.6
136-7LOY MDAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Olivia Miller+0.5
147-7AMERLOY MDKillElsie Affulset Madison Monahan+0.6
157-8LOY MDAMER×3KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.6
167-9AMERAMER×3AceAmerican+0.6
177-10AMERAMER×3AceAmericanaced Ava Nepkin+0.5
188-10AMERLOY MDKillAva Nepkinset Addie Huber+0.4
198-11LOY MDAMER×5KillAva Nepkinset Addie Huber+0.4
208-12AMERAMER×5KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.4
218-13AMERAMER×5Attack errAddie Lowe+0.3
228-14AMERAMER×5Attack errAddie Lowe+0.2
238-15AMERAMER×5KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.2
249-15AMERLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Morgan Crawford+0.1
259-16LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
2610-16AMERLOY MDBlockedSalme Hollasblk Mariah Sanabia, Addie Lowe+0.1
2710-17LOY MDAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.1
2810-18AMERAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
2911-18AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio·
3011-19LOY MDAMERAttack errElsie Affulset Addie Huber+0.1
3112-19AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Madison Monahan·
3213-19LOY MDLOY MDBlockedGabi Verdicchioblk Ellie Joffe+0.1
3313-20LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3413-21AMERAMERAttack errAva Nepkin+0.1
3514-21AMERLOY MDAttack errSophie Dufourset Salme Hollas·
3614-22LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak·
3715-22AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican·
3816-22LOY MDLOY MDBlockedSophie Dufourblk Mariah Sanabia, Addie Lowe·
3916-23LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.1
4017-23AMERLOY MDKillMariah Sanabiaset Gabi Verdicchio·
4117-24LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak·
4218-24AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican·
4319-24LOY MDLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio·
4419-25LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland·
Set 2
10-1LOY MDAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
21-1AMERLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Gabi Verdicchio+0.3
31-2LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.3
41-3AMERAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
52-3AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+0.3
63-3LOY MDLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Gabi Verdicchio+0.4
73-4LOY MDAMER×4KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
83-5AMERAMER×4BlockedMorgan Crawfordblk Deniz Dakak, Prinzez Zeck+0.3
93-6AMER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
103-7AMERAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeck+0.2
114-7AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+0.2
124-8LOY MDAMERAttack errEllie Joffeset Madison Monahan+0.2
134-9AMERAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
145-9AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Madison Monahan+0.1
155-10LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
166-10AMERLOY MDKillEllie Joffeset Madison Monahan+0.2
177-10LOY MDLOY MDKillAva Nepkinset Madison Monahan+0.3
187-11LOY MDAMER×4KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.2
197-12AMERAMER×4Attack errMariah Sanabia+0.2
207-13AMERAMER×4KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
217-14AMERAMER×4KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
228-14AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+0.1
239-14LOY MDLOY MDAceLoyola Marylandaced Salme Hollas+0.1
249-15LOY MDAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Bella Marrero+0.1
259-16AMERAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Olivia Miller+0.1
269-17AMERAMER×3BlockedAddie Loweblk Deniz Dakak, Elise Sterling+0.1
2710-17AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican·
2810-18LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak·
2911-18AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio·
3012-18LOY MDLOY MDAttack errElise Sterling+0.1
3112-19LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3212-20AMERAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak·
3313-20AMERLOY MDKillAva Nepkin·
3414-20LOY MDLOY MDAttack errPrinzez Zeck+0.1
3514-21LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3615-21AMERLOY MDKillElsie Affulset Madison Monahan·
3715-22LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak·
3816-22AMERLOY MDAttack errZedo Yilmazset Bella Marrero·
3917-22LOY MDLOY MDAttack errSydney Guerrier+0.1
4017-23LOY MDAMERKillZedo Yilmazset Deniz Dakak+0.1
4118-23AMERLOY MDAttack errElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak·
4219-23LOY MDLOY MDAceLoyola Marylandaced Zedo Yilmaz+0.1
4319-24LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.1
4420-24AMERLOY MDKillMariah Sanabiaset Gabi Verdicchio·
4520-25LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+0.1
Set 3
10-1AMERAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
21-1AMERLOY MDAttack errSam McMillanset Deniz Dakak+0.1
32-1LOY MDLOY MDAttack errCarly Sciborski+0.2
42-2LOY MDAMERAttack errAva Nepkinset Gabi Verdicchio+0.1
53-2AMERLOY MDKillMariah Sanabia+0.2
63-3LOY MDAMER×3KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.2
73-4AMERAMER×3KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.2
83-5AMERAMER×3Attack errElsie Afful+0.1
94-5AMERLOY MDKillElsie Affulset Gabi Verdicchio+0.1
104-6LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+0.1
115-6AMERLOY MDBad setDeniz Dakak+0.1
126-6LOY MDLOY MDBlockedSalme Hollasblk Elsie Afful, Addie Lowe+0.2
136-7LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.2
147-7AMERLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Madison Monahan+0.2
157-8LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+0.2
168-8AMERLOY MDKillMariah Sanabiaset Madison Monahan+0.2
178-9LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+0.2
189-9AMERLOY MDBlockedSam McMillanblk Ellie Joffe, Mariah Sanabia+0.2
199-10LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.2
2010-10AMERLOY MD×5Attack errSam McMillanset Deniz Dakak+0.2
2111-10LOY MDLOY MD×5Attack errSam McMillan+0.3
2212-10LOY MDLOY MD×5AceLoyola Marylandaced Sophie Dufour+0.3
2313-10LOY MDLOY MD×5Attack errPrinzez Zeck+0.4
2414-10LOY MDLOY MD×5KillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+0.4
2514-11LOY MDAMERAttack errMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+0.3
2614-12AMERAMERAttack errMariah Sanabia+0.3
2715-12AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+0.4
2816-12LOY MDLOY MDKillElsie Affulset Gabi Verdicchio+0.4
2916-13LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.3
3016-14AMERAMERAceAmerican+0.4
3117-14AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+0.4
3217-15LOY MDAMER×3KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
3317-16AMERAMER×3Attack errMorgan Crawford+0.4
3417-17AMERAMER×3Attack errAddie Lowe+0.4
3518-17AMERLOY MD×4Serve errAmerican+0.4
3619-17LOY MDLOY MD×4KillAva Nepkinset Madison Monahan+0.5
3720-17LOY MDLOY MD×4Attack errSalme Hollas+0.6
3821-17LOY MDLOY MD×4KillAddie Loweset Madison Monahan+0.5
3921-18LOY MDAMER×3KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.3
4021-19AMERAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.4
4121-20AMERAMER×3Attack errElsie Afful+0.5
4222-20AMERLOY MDKillAva Nepkinset Elise Sterling+0.6
4322-21LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.5
4423-21AMERLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Madison Monahan+0.7
4523-22LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.5
4624-22AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+0.9
4724-23LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.5
4825-23AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+1.3
Set 4
11-0LOY MDLOY MD×3KillMariah Sanabiaset Gabi Verdicchio+1.1
22-0LOY MDLOY MD×3AceLoyola Marylandaced Salme Hollas+1.3
33-0LOY MDLOY MD×3AceLoyola Marylandaced Alex Ioannou+1.4
43-1LOY MDAMERAttack errEllie Joffeset Gabi Verdicchio+1.0
54-1AMERLOY MDKillAva Nepkinset Gabi Verdicchio+1.3
64-2LOY MDAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.0
75-2AMERLOY MDKillEllie Joffeset Gabi Verdicchio+1.3
85-3LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+1.1
96-3AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+1.4
107-3LOY MDLOY MDAttack errSophie Dufour+1.8
117-4LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.2
128-4AMERLOY MDAttack errCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+1.5
138-5LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Bella Marrero+1.2
148-6AMERAMERBlockedElsie Affulblk Prinzez Zeck+1.5
159-6AMERLOY MDKillAva Nepkinset Madison Monahan+1.5
169-7LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.2
1710-7AMERLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Madison Monahan+1.6
1810-8LOY MDAMER×3KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+1.3
1910-9AMERAMER×3KillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+1.6
2010-10AMERAMER×3BlockedAva Nepkinblk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak+1.5
2111-10AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+1.4
2211-11LOY MDAMERBad setGabi Verdicchio+1.2
2312-11AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+1.5
2413-11LOY MDLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+2.1
2513-12LOY MDAMER×5KillDeniz Dakakset Bella Marrero+1.4
2613-13AMERAMER×5Attack errAva Nepkin+1.7
2713-14AMERAMER×5BlockedMorgan Crawfordblk Prinzez Zeck, Deniz Dakak+1.6
2813-15AMERAMER×5AceAmericanaced Ava Nepkin+1.4
2913-16AMERAMER×5KillSophie Dufourset Elise Sterling+1.1
3014-16AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+0.9
3114-17LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufour+0.9
3215-17AMERLOY MDKillAddie Loweset Addie Huber+0.9
3315-18LOY MDAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.0
3416-18AMERLOY MDAttack errCarly Sciborskiset Prinzez Zeck+1.0
3516-19LOY MDAMERServe errLoyola Maryland+1.0
3616-20AMERAMERAceAmerican+0.9
3717-20AMERLOY MDKillMariah Sanabiaset Madison Monahan+0.6
3817-21LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.8
3918-21AMERLOY MDKillAva Nepkinset Gabi Verdicchio+0.6
4018-22LOY MDAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+0.8
4119-22AMERLOY MDServe errAmerican+0.5
4219-23LOY MDAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.7
4320-23AMERLOY MDKillMorgan Crawfordset Gabi Verdicchio+0.4
4421-23LOY MDLOY MDKillElsie Afful+1.1
4521-24LOY MDAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.4
4621-25AMERAMERAceAmericanaced Elsie Afful+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Loyola Maryland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).