Navy vs American Volleyball: American Wins 3-0 (Oct 4, 2026)

FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: American 94.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

American beat visiting Navy 3-0 (28-26, 25-16, 25-15) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. American's Elise Sterling led with 12 kills, and Bella Marrero added 17 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 4

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NAVY	26	16	15	0
AMER	28	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Elise Sterling hit .600 with 12 kills as American rolled past Navy.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.7 points. Navy peaked at 13% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had American at 94%.

NavyAmerican

Break %+17.8 pts
32.250.0
Points won on own serve: 38 of 76 vs 19 of 59. Navy sided out 50.0% of the time.
Hitting+.205
.131.336
Kills and errors: 48–11 vs 31–17.

American above 50Navy belowMax swing 3.7%

NavyAmerican

Aces: Navy 5·American 7
Serve err: Navy 5·American 10
Blocks: Navy 4·American 92 BS · 4 BA vs 2 BS · 14 BA
Digs: Navy 45·American 50

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

American above 50 · Navy below

Biggest swing: 3.7% to Navy — set 1, NAVY 24-23 AMER. Prinzez Zeck stuffed by Farrah Eike. AMER win probability 90% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NAVY 5.2%94.8% AMER

Navy wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.5%

3-2

3.1%

American wins

3-0

54.9%

3-1

29.8%

3-2

10.1%

NAVY break %: 37.2% vs this opp
AMER break %: 49.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Farrah EikeBlock+3.7%
Prinzez Zeck stuffed by Farrah Eike
Set 1 · NAVY 24-23 AMER · NAVY 10% → 13%
02
Sophie DufourKill+3.7%
Kill by Sophie Dufour (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 1 · NAVY 24-24 AMER · AMER 87% → 90%
03
AmericanService error+3.7%
American service error
Set 1 · NAVY 25-24 AMER · NAVY 10% → 13%
04
Prinzez ZeckKill+3.7%
Kill by Prinzez Zeck (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 1 · NAVY 25-25 AMER · AMER 87% → 90%
05
Caroline BuffumAttack error+3.7%
Attack error by Caroline Buffum
Set 1 · NAVY 25-26 AMER · AMER 90% → 94%
06
Ellen Gundlach&Siena MorganBlock+2.9%
Salme Hollas stuffed by Ellen Gundlach & Siena Morgan
Set 1 · NAVY 22-21 AMER · NAVY 8% → 11%
07
AmericanService error+2.9%
American service error
Set 1 · NAVY 23-22 AMER · NAVY 9% → 12%
08
Avery MadduxKill+2.8%
Kill by Avery Maddux (set by Caroline Adams)
Set 1 · NAVY 26-26 AMER · NAVY 6% → 9%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Navyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellen GundlachMB	3	8	3	21	.238	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
4Farrah EikeOH	3	6	1	21	.238	1	0	1	8	2	1	0	1	7
9Caroline BuffumOH	3	6	5	25	.040	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	6
24Siena MorganMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Isa BoydS	3	0	0	2	.000	15	3	1	7	0	0	0	0	3
17Avery MadduxMB	3	2	0	7	.286	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
7Paige BuzzerioOH	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	3
13Caroline AdamsS	3	0	0	0	–	11	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
18Izzy PicardOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Hailey JacobusOH	2	1	1	7	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
21Amara ChambersL/DS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
15Baylee DoolanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
22Grace BurgoyneMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Madeline BildeauxMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Ally AlessioL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Lillian SchultheisS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
11Mackenzie PalumboOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	17	107	.131	28	5	5	45	7	2	4	4	57

Americanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Elise SterlingMB	3	12	0	20	.600	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	13.5
17Salme HollasOH	3	11	3	32	.250	0	1	1	7	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
23Carly SciborskiOPP	3	10	0	15	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
20Prinzez ZeckMB	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	4	9
5Deniz DakakS	3	1	1	5	.000	42	1	3	9	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
10Alex IoannouL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	4	2	0	0	0	2
11Sophie DufourOH	3	9	4	20	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	10
19Olivia MillerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	5	1	0	0	0	3
3Bella MarreroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	17	1	0	0	0	0
18Zedo YilmazOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
4Emma BlankenshipMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	11	110	.336	47	7	10	50	5	2	14	9	78

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Navy vs American

Season series · American leads 1-0

Sun, Oct 4, 2026Navy at American · American won 3-0This match
Fri, Nov 6, 2026American at NavyPreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NAVY · AMER 4

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 5 NAVYAMER 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 NAVYAMER 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 2 NAVYAMER 4

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Navy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Navy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	33%3/9
2	54%7/13	42%5/12
3	58%7/12	22%2/9
4	78%7/9	42%5/12
5	50%6/12	13%1/8
6	27%4/15	33%3/9
All	50%38/76	32%19/59

American

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	71%12/17
2	70%7/10	36%4/11
3	70%7/10	53%8/15
4	64%7/11	30%3/10
5	78%7/9	13%1/8
6	63%5/8	67%10/15
All	68%40/59	50%38/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#	NAVY-AMER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
2	1-1	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.6
3	1-2	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
4	2-2	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.6
5	3-2	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.9
6	3-3	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+0.6
7	3-4	AMER	AMER	Blocked	Ellen Gundlach	blk Sophie Dufour, Prinzez Zeck	+0.7
8	4-4	AMER	NAVY	Attack err	Sophie Dufour		+0.6
9	4-5	NAVY	AMER	Serve err	Navy		+0.6
10	5-5	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Izzy Picard	set Caroline Adams	+0.7
11	5-6	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.6
12	5-7	AMER	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Alex Ioannou	+0.7
13	6-7	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+0.6
14	6-8	NAVY	AMER	Blocked	Caroline Buffum	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+0.5
15	6-9	AMER	AMER	Blocked	Izzy Picard	blk Salme Hollas, Elise Sterling	+0.6
16	7-9	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+0.5
17	7-10	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
18	8-10	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Isa Boyd	+0.5
19	8-11	NAVY	AMER	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+0.5
20	9-11	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.5
21	9-12	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
22	10-12	AMER	NAVY×5	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.5
23	11-12	NAVY	NAVY×5	Blocked	Sophie Dufour	blk Izzy Picard, Avery Maddux	+0.9
24	12-12	NAVY	NAVY×5	Ace	Navy	aced Olivia Miller	+1.1
25	13-12	NAVY	NAVY×5	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+1.3
26	14-12	NAVY	NAVY×5	Ace	Navy	aced Salme Hollas	+1.5
27	14-13	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
28	15-13	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+1.3
29	16-13	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+1.8
30	16-14	NAVY	AMER×3	Serve err	Navy		+1.1
31	16-15	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Izzy Picard		+1.5
32	16-16	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.5
33	17-16	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+1.4
34	18-16	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Caroline Adams	+2.0
35	18-17	NAVY	AMER×4	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.3
36	18-18	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
37	18-19	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
38	18-20	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
39	19-20	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Caroline Adams	+1.1
40	19-21	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
41	20-21	AMER	NAVY×3	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+1.1
42	21-21	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+2.1
43	22-21	NAVY	NAVY×3	Blocked	Salme Hollas	blk Ellen Gundlach, Siena Morgan	+2.9
44	22-22	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
45	23-22	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+2.9
46	23-23	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Bella Marrero	+2.6
47	24-23	AMER	NAVY	Blocked	Prinzez Zeck	blk Farrah Eike	+3.7
48	24-24	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+3.7
49	25-24	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+3.7
50	25-25	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+3.7
51	25-26	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		+3.7
52	26-26	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Avery Maddux	set Caroline Adams	+2.8
53	26-27	NAVY	AMER	Serve err	Navy		+2.8
54	26-28	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.8
Set 2
1	0-1	AMER	AMER	Ace	American	aced Amara Chambers	+0.4
2	0-2	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
3	1-2	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+0.3
4	1-3	NAVY	AMER	Bad set	Amara Chambers		+0.3
5	1-4	AMER	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Bella Marrero	+0.3
6	2-4	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.3
7	2-5	NAVY	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
8	2-6	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
9	2-7	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Siena Morgan		+0.2
10	3-7	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Ellen Gundlach	+0.2
11	4-7	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Deniz Dakak		+0.3
12	4-8	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
13	4-9	AMER	AMER	Ace	American	aced Farrah Eike	+0.2
14	5-9	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Isa Boyd	+0.2
15	5-10	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
16	6-10	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Avery Maddux	set Caroline Adams	+0.2
17	6-11	NAVY	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
18	6-12	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
19	6-13	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Amara Chambers		+0.1
20	6-14	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Izzy Picard		+0.1
21	7-14	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		·
22	8-14	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Grace Burgoyne	+0.1
23	8-15	NAVY	AMER×4	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
24	8-16	AMER	AMER×4	Blocked	Farrah Eike	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+0.1
25	8-17	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	American	aced Amara Chambers	·
26	8-18	AMER	AMER×4	Blocked	Caroline Buffum	blk Prinzez Zeck	·
27	9-18	AMER	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	·
28	10-18	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Siena Morgan		·
29	11-18	NAVY	NAVY×3	Ace	Navy	aced Bella Marrero	·
30	11-19	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	·
31	12-19	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		·
32	12-20	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	·
33	12-21	AMER	AMER	Blocked	Caroline Buffum	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	·
34	13-21	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	·
35	13-22	NAVY	AMER	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		·
36	14-22	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	·
37	14-23	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Bella Marrero	·
38	15-23	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Farrah Eike	·
39	16-23	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Sophie Dufour		·
40	16-24	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	·
41	16-25	AMER	AMER	Ace	American	aced Farrah Eike	·
Set 3
1	1-0	NAVY	NAVY	Ace	Navy	aced Alex Ioannou	+0.2
2	2-0	NAVY	NAVY	Ace	Navy	aced Alex Ioannou	+0.3
3	2-1	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
4	3-1	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+0.2
5	3-2	NAVY	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
6	3-3	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	American	aced Paige Buzzerio	+0.2
7	3-4	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Paige Buzzerio		+0.2
8	4-4	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Baylee Doolan	+0.2
9	5-4	NAVY	NAVY	Blocked	Salme Hollas	blk Ellen Gundlach	+0.3
10	5-5	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
11	5-6	AMER	AMER	Blocked	Ellen Gundlach	blk Elise Sterling, Sophie Dufour	+0.2
12	6-6	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Paige Buzzerio	set Isa Boyd	+0.2
13	6-7	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
14	7-7	AMER	NAVY	Attack err	Sophie Dufour		+0.2
15	7-8	NAVY	AMER	Serve err	Navy		+0.2
16	7-9	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
17	8-9	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+0.2
18	9-9	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+0.3
19	9-10	NAVY	AMER×3	Kill	Sophie Dufour	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
20	9-11	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Bella Marrero	+0.2
21	9-12	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
22	10-12	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		+0.2
23	10-13	NAVY	AMER×4	Serve err	Navy		+0.2
24	10-14	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Carly Sciborski	+0.2
25	10-15	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
26	10-16	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
27	11-16	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Isa Boyd	+0.1
28	12-16	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.1
29	12-17	NAVY	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
30	12-18	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	American	aced Paige Buzzerio	+0.1
31	12-19	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	American	aced Paige Buzzerio	·
32	12-20	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	·
33	13-20	AMER	NAVY	Serve err	American		·
34	13-21	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	·
35	14-21	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Paige Buzzerio	set Isa Boyd	·
36	14-22	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	·
37	14-23	AMER	AMER	Blocked	Madeline Bildeaux	blk Prinzez Zeck	·
38	15-23	AMER	NAVY	Kill	Paige Buzzerio	set Caroline Adams	·
39	15-24	NAVY	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	·
40	15-25	AMER	AMER	Blocked	Hailey Jacobus	blk Carly Sciborski, Prinzez Zeck	·

Score shown after each rally, Navy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

American def. Navy 3–0

Elise Sterling hit .600 with 12 kills as American rolled past Navy.