FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:0

HomePATRIOT

Montana St. def. Lafayette 3–0

(25-22, 25-21, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MONTST	25	25	25	3
LAFAYE	22	21	18	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

LAFAYE above 50 · MONTST below

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Montana St. — set 1, MONTST 24-22 LAFAYE. Kill by Elli Tufto (set by Maggie Rhew). LAFAYE win probability 16% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MONTST 80.8%19.2% LAFAYE

Montana St. wins

3-0

32.3%

3-1

30.4%

3-2

18.0%

Lafayette wins

3-0

3.1%

3-1

6.4%

3-2

9.8%

MONTST break %: 46.9% vs this opp
LAFAYE break %: 40.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Elli TuftoKill+3.6%
Kill by Elli Tufto (set by Maggie Rhew)
Set 1 · MONTST 24-22 LAFAYE · MONTST 84% → 87%
02
Justine PuigKill+3.1%
Kill by Justine Puig (set by Noa Kamphuis)
Set 1 · MONTST 23-22 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 13% → 16%
03
Elli EskoKill+2.5%
Kill by Elli Esko (set by Maggie Rhew)
Set 2 · MONTST 19-18 LAFAYE · MONTST 88% → 90%
04
Johanna GrogerAttack error+2.5%
Johanna Groger stuffed by Lauren Schloe & Lauren Greeny
Set 1 · MONTST 25-22 LAFAYE · MONTST 87% → 90%
05
Destiny McKenzieKill+2.3%
Kill by Destiny McKenzie (set by Mackenzie Calhoun)
Set 1 · MONTST 16-15 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 16% → 18%
06
Lauren GreenyKill+2.3%
Kill by Lauren Greeny (set by Maggie Rhew)
Set 2 · MONTST 20-18 LAFAYE · MONTST 90% → 93%
07
Maggie RhewKill+2.1%
Kill by Maggie Rhew (set by Nicolette Noble)
Set 1 · MONTST 18-15 LAFAYE · MONTST 84% → 86%
08
Elli TuftoKill+2.1%
Kill by Elli Tufto (set by Teagan Jaynes)
Set 2 · MONTST 15-15 LAFAYE · MONTST 86% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Montana St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Elli EskoOH	3	12	3	28	.321	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13
2Lauren GreenyOH	3	7	3	28	.143	1	0	1	14	1	4	2	9
22Joelie SpeltsMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	1	2	0	2	1	9
7Lauren SchloeMB	3	4	1	10	.300	1	0	0	3	0	5	2.5	6.5
9Maggie RhewS	3	1	0	4	.250	33	0	1	11	0	1	0.5	1.5
12Afton ThomsenDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
23Elli TuftoOH	3	13	5	31	.258	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	13.5
14Taylor McDonaldOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
6Teagan JaynesS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
45Nicolette NobleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	22	1	0	0	0
Team totals		46	13	116	.284	44	2	8	63	2	14	7	75

Lafayettehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Auma Mbeche-OdhiamboOH	3	14	5	44	.205	1	0	1	9	1	2	1	15
11Justine PuigOH	3	7	7	31	.000	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	7
22Destiny McKenzieOH	3	6	4	27	.074	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
26Noa KamphuisMB	3	5	0	11	.455	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
9Johanna GrogerMB	3	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
5Mackenzie CalhounS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
20Jada AksuOH	3	3	1	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
6Alyssa ChuL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	13	0	0	0	1
1Sophia WilsonS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	2	11	0	0	0	1
Team totals		35	19	129	.124	31	2	6	50	2	4	2	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MONTST · LAFAYE 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 MONTST LAFAYE 5

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 MONTST LAFAYE 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 MONTST LAFAYE 3

Bars above the line = Lafayette leads, below = Montana St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Montana St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	50%6/12
2	57%8/14	53%9/17
3	67%6/9	50%6/12
4	50%6/12	57%8/14
5	55%6/11	33%3/9
6	75%6/8	33%3/9
All	63%40/63	48%35/73

Lafayette

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	13%1/8
2	44%7/16	38%5/13
3	40%6/15	22%2/9
4	75%6/8	60%9/15
5	55%6/11	45%5/11
6	50%5/10	14%1/7
All	52%38/73	37%23/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	MONTST -LAFAYE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Greeny	set Maggie Rhew	+1.2
2	1-1	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+1.3
3	2-1	LAFAYE	MONTST ×3	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+1.2
4	3-1	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	blk Maggie Rhew, Joelie Spelts	+1.5
5	4-1	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Maggie Rhew	+1.3
6	4-2	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.0
7	5-2	LAFAYE	MONTST ×4	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Maggie Rhew	+1.0
8	6-2	MONTST	MONTST ×4	Attack err	Justine Puig		+1.2
9	7-2	MONTST	MONTST ×4	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Maggie Rhew	+1.0
10	8-2	MONTST	MONTST ×4	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Maggie Rhew	+0.8
11	8-3	MONTST	LAFAYE×5	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.5
12	8-4	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×5	Kill	Justine Puig	set Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	+0.9
13	8-5	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×5	Kill	Noa Kamphuis		+1.2
14	8-6	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×5	Ace	LAFAYE server	aced Lauren Greeny	+1.4
15	8-7	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×5	Attack err	Lauren Greeny		+1.7
16	9-7	LAFAYE	MONTST	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+1.3
17	10-7	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Schloe	set Maggie Rhew	+1.6
18	10-8	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+1.2
19	10-9	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Elli Tufto		+1.8
20	11-9	LAFAYE	MONTST ×3	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+1.4
21	12-9	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Lauren Greeny	+1.7
22	13-9	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Attack err	Justine Puig	blk Lauren Schloe, Lauren Greeny	+1.4
23	13-10	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+1.0
24	14-10	LAFAYE	MONTST	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+1.1
25	14-11	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+1.0
26	15-11	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+1.1
27	16-11	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie	blk Joelie Spelts, Lauren Greeny	+1.1
28	16-12	MONTST	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.7
29	16-13	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.3
30	16-14	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×4	Attack err	Lauren Greeny	blk Johanna Groger, Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	+1.7
31	16-15	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+2.3
32	17-15	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+1.9
33	18-15	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Maggie Rhew	set Nicolette Noble	+2.1
34	18-16	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+1.4
35	19-16	LAFAYE	MONTST ×3	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+1.7
36	20-16	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Ace	MONTST server	aced Team	+1.6
37	21-16	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Bad set	Mackenzie Calhoun		+1.1
38	21-17	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.5
39	22-17	LAFAYE	MONTST	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.8
40	22-18	MONTST	LAFAYE×3	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+0.4
41	22-19	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Kill	Justine Puig	set Sophia Wilson	+1.0
42	22-20	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Attack err	Elli Tufto		+1.8
43	23-20	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Taylor McDonald	set Teagan Jaynes	+2.0
44	23-21	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Sophia Wilson	+1.2
45	23-22	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Kill	Justine Puig	set Noa Kamphuis	+3.1
46	24-22	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+3.6
47	25-22	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Johanna Groger	blk Lauren Schloe, Lauren Greeny	+2.5
Set 2
1	1-0	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie	blk Elli Tufto, Lauren Schloe	+1.2
2	1-1	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+1.0
3	1-2	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Elli Tufto		+1.4
4	2-2	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Schloe	set Maggie Rhew	+1.0
5	2-3	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.1
6	3-3	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Schloe	set Maggie Rhew	+1.0
7	4-3	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Afton Thomsen	+1.3
8	4-4	MONTST	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.0
9	4-5	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+1.5
10	4-6	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+1.6
11	4-7	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×4	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Sophia Wilson	+1.7
12	5-7	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Greeny	set Maggie Rhew	+1.1
13	6-7	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+1.5
14	6-8	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+1.3
15	7-8	LAFAYE	MONTST	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+1.2
16	8-8	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+1.6
17	8-9	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Justine Puig	set Sophia Wilson	+1.3
18	9-9	LAFAYE	MONTST	Attack err	Justine Puig		+1.2
19	9-10	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Justine Puig	set Sophia Wilson	+1.4
20	9-11	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Elli Tufto		+1.9
21	10-11	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+1.3
22	10-12	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.5
23	11-12	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Greeny	set Maggie Rhew	+1.3
24	11-13	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.6
25	12-13	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+1.4
26	12-14	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.7
27	13-14	LAFAYE	MONTST	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+1.5
28	13-15	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Alyssa Chu	+1.7
29	14-15	LAFAYE	MONTST	Attack err	Jada Aksu		+1.5
30	15-15	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Teagan Jaynes	+2.1
31	15-16	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Sophia Wilson	+1.8
32	16-16	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Teagan Jaynes	+1.7
33	16-17	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+1.9
34	17-17	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Teagan Jaynes	+1.8
35	17-18	MONTST	LAFAYE	Attack err	Lauren Greeny		+2.0
36	18-18	LAFAYE	MONTST ×6	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+1.9
37	19-18	MONTST	MONTST ×6	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+2.5
38	20-18	MONTST	MONTST ×6	Kill	Lauren Greeny	set Maggie Rhew	+2.3
39	21-18	MONTST	MONTST ×6	Kill	Elli Esko		+1.8
40	22-18	MONTST	MONTST ×6	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie		+1.2
41	23-18	MONTST	MONTST ×6	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	blk Lauren Greeny, Lauren Schloe	+0.7
42	23-19	MONTST	LAFAYE×3	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+0.2
43	23-20	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Ace	LAFAYE server	aced Nicolette Noble	+0.6
44	23-21	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+1.2
45	24-21	LAFAYE	MONTST	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+1.5
46	25-21	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Greeny		+0.7
Set 3
1	1-0	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+0.5
2	2-0	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Johanna Groger		+0.6
3	2-1	MONTST	LAFAYE	Attack err	Lauren Schloe		+0.5
4	3-1	LAFAYE	MONTST	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.4
5	3-2	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.5
6	4-2	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Maggie Rhew	+0.5
7	4-3	MONTST	LAFAYE	Attack err	Elli Esko		+0.5
8	4-4	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Kill	Justine Puig	set Sophia Wilson	+0.7
9	5-4	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+0.5
10	5-5	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+0.6
11	6-5	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Maggie Rhew	+0.5
12	6-6	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+0.6
13	7-6	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+0.6
14	7-7	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+0.6
15	8-7	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+0.6
16	9-7	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie		+0.7
17	9-8	MONTST	LAFAYE	Attack err	Elli Esko		+0.5
18	10-8	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Greeny	set Maggie Rhew	+0.5
19	11-8	MONTST	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+0.6
20	11-9	MONTST	LAFAYE	Attack err	Elli Esko		+0.5
21	12-9	LAFAYE	MONTST ×3	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.5
22	13-9	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Ace	MONTST server	aced Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	+0.5
23	14-9	MONTST	MONTST ×3	Attack err	Justine Puig		+0.4
24	14-10	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+0.3
25	14-11	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Joelie Spelts	blk Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo, Noa Kamphuis	+0.5
26	15-11	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Joelie Spelts	set Teagan Jaynes	+0.4
27	15-12	MONTST	LAFAYE×3	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+0.4
28	15-13	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+0.7
29	15-14	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Attack err	Elli Tufto		+0.8
30	16-14	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Teagan Jaynes	+0.7
31	17-14	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Justine Puig	blk Lauren Schloe, Taylor McDonald	+0.8
32	17-15	MONTST	LAFAYE	Kill	Justine Puig	set Sophia Wilson	+0.5
33	18-15	LAFAYE	MONTST ×5	Kill	Lauren Schloe	set Teagan Jaynes	+0.6
34	19-15	MONTST	MONTST ×5	Attack err	Justine Puig		+0.6
35	20-15	MONTST	MONTST ×5	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+0.4
36	21-15	MONTST	MONTST ×5	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Lauren Schloe	+0.3
37	22-15	MONTST	MONTST ×5	Kill	Elli Tufto	set Maggie Rhew	+0.1
38	22-16	MONTST	LAFAYE	Bad set	Maggie Rhew		+0.0
39	23-16	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Lauren Greeny	set Maggie Rhew	+0.1
40	24-16	MONTST	MONTST	Attack err	Justine Puig		+0.0
41	24-17	MONTST	LAFAYE	Serve err	MONTST server		+0.0
42	24-18	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Alyssa Chu	+0.0
43	25-18	LAFAYE	MONTST	Kill	Elli Esko	set Maggie Rhew	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Montana St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.