St. Thomas (MN) def. North Dakota 3-0 Volleyball (Oct 22)

FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Summit League NetworkMidco Sports+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: St. Thomas (MN) 96.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

St. Thomas (MN) beat visiting North Dakota 3-0 (26-24, 25-15, 25-22) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. St. Thomas (MN)'s Anya Schmidt led with 11 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 9:50 PM CT · final Oct 22

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NO DAK	24	15	22	0
STTHOM	26	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

St. Thomas (MN) broke it open with an 11–0 run in the second set.

Win probability never moved more than 3.0 points on one rally; North Dakota topped out at 12% in Set 1. RallyIQ gave St. Thomas (MN) 96% before first serve.

North DakotaSt. Thomas (MN)

Break %+11.2 pts
42.954.1
On serve: 40/74 against 27/63 (North Dakota sideout 45.9%).
Longest run+6
511
St. Thomas (MN) scored 11 straight in the second set to turn a 9–12 deficit into a 20–12 lead. That set ended 25–15.

St. Thomas (MN) above 50North Dakota belowMax swing 3.0%

North DakotaSt. Thomas (MN)

Hitting: North Dakota .200·St. Thomas (MN) .221
Aces: North Dakota 4·St. Thomas (MN) 11
Serve err: North Dakota 8·St. Thomas (MN) 6
Blocks: North Dakota 8·St. Thomas (MN) 31 BS · 14 BA vs 1 BS · 4 BA
Digs: North Dakota 47·St. Thomas (MN) 55

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

St. Thomas (MN) above 50 · North Dakota below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to North Dakota — set 1, NO DAK 24-23 STTHOM. Kill by Lauren Perugini (set by Ela Vlaisavljevic). STTHOM win probability 93% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NO DAK 4.0%96.0% STTHOM

North Dakota wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.5%

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0

58.7%

3-1

28.7%

3-2

8.7%

NO DAK break %: 38.3% vs this opp
STTHOM break %: 51.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Lauren PeruginiKill+3.0%
Kill by Lauren Perugini (set by Ela Vlaisavljevic)
Set 1 · NO DAK 24-23 STTHOM · NO DAK 7% → 10%
02
Audrey KoconKill+3.0%
Kill by Audrey Kocon (set by Morgan Kealy)
Set 1 · NO DAK 24-24 STTHOM · STTHOM 90% → 93%
03
Anya SchmidtKill+2.7%
Kill by Anya Schmidt (set by Taylor McNear)
Set 1 · NO DAK 24-25 STTHOM · STTHOM 93% → 96%
04
St. Thomas (MN)Service error+2.3%
St. Thomas (MN) service error
Set 1 · NO DAK 23-22 STTHOM · NO DAK 6% → 9%
05
Anya SchmidtKill+2.0%
Kill by Anya Schmidt (set by Morgan Kealy)
Set 1 · NO DAK 22-22 STTHOM · STTHOM 92% → 94%
06
North DakotaService error+2.0%
North Dakota service error
Set 1 · NO DAK 23-23 STTHOM · STTHOM 91% → 93%
07
Audrey KoconKill+2.0%
Kill by Audrey Kocon (set by Morgan Kealy)
Set 1 · NO DAK 24-26 STTHOM · STTHOM 96% → 98%
08
Morgan KealyKill+1.7%
Kill by Morgan Kealy (set by Ellie Gustafson)
Set 1 · NO DAK 22-21 STTHOM · STTHOM 90% → 92%

Box score

Official NCAA box

North Dakotaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Lilliana MontesMB	3	10	2	22	.364	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	12
15Ellee McIntoshOH	3	6	5	26	.038	0	0	1	6	2	0	2	1	7
12Olivia EdlundOH	3	3	0	12	.250	0	1	1	3	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
9Reagan McIntoshS	3	1	0	3	.333	16	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	1
13Sally MarongOH	2	2	0	10	.200	0	0	1	7	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
5Andrea ZaricOH	1	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
8Lauren PeruginiOH	3	7	3	19	.211	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	8
3Haley PattonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	2	0	0	0	1
22Ela VlaisavljevicS	3	0	0	2	.000	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
21Bilge BallaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
1Skylar DarrL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	1
4An de HamerOPP	1	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
Team totals		33	12	105	.200	30	4	8	47	11	1	14	8	61

St. Thomas (MN)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Anya SchmidtOH	3	11	3	19	.421	2	4	1	12	2	0	1	0.5	15.5
12Heidi WingateMB	3	7	4	18	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
21Reilly KurthMB	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
7Ellie GustafsonOH	3	5	4	32	.031	3	0	2	11	2	0	0	0	5
5Morgan KealyS	3	5	1	9	.444	30	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	5
9Emory BrosnahanOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
24Audrey KoconOH	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	8
2Bryn LunskiOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	4
3Taylor McNearL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	11	0	0	0	0	2
6Kira BrundageL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
10Sophia Del ValleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Miriam UnongoOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	18	113	.221	40	11	6	55	4	1	4	3	76

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

North Dakota vs St. Thomas (MN)

Season series · St. Thomas (MN) leads 2-0

Sat, Sep 26, 2026St. Thomas (MN) at North Dakota · St. Thomas (MN) won 3-1Result →
Thu, Oct 22, 2026North Dakota at St. Thomas (MN) · St. Thomas (MN) won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NO DAK · STTHOM 11

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 5 NO DAKSTTHOM 6

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 4 NO DAKSTTHOM 11

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 NO DAKSTTHOM 5

Bars above the line = St. Thomas (MN) leads, below = North Dakota leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Dakota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	63%10/16
2	37%7/19	46%6/13
3	55%6/11	42%5/12
4	36%5/14	14%1/7
5	83%5/6	17%1/6
6	33%4/12	44%4/9
All	46%34/74	43%27/63

St. Thomas (MN)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	67%10/15
2	50%7/14	67%14/21
3	70%7/10	30%3/10
4	83%5/6	44%4/9
5	56%5/9	62%8/13
6	83%5/6	17%1/6
All	57%36/63	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

137 rallies

#	NO DAK-STTHOM	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×5	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Taylor McNear	+0.5
2	2-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×5	Kill	Ellee McIntosh	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.6
3	3-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×5	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.7
4	4-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×5	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.8
5	5-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×5	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson		+0.9
6	5-1	NO DAK	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.6
7	6-1	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Ellee McIntosh	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.8
8	7-1	NO DAK	NO DAK	Kill	Lilliana Montes		+1.0
9	7-2	NO DAK	STTHOM	Bad set	Olivia Edlund		+0.6
10	7-3	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Haley Patton	+0.8
11	8-3	STTHOM	NO DAK×3	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.8
12	9-3	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Kill	Ellee McIntosh	set Haley Patton	+1.0
13	10-3	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Blocked	Heidi Wingate	blk Olivia Edlund, Sally Marong	+1.0
14	10-4	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+0.6
15	10-5	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Ellee McIntosh		+0.8
16	11-5	STTHOM	NO DAK	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+0.9
17	12-5	NO DAK	NO DAK	Attack err	Heidi Wingate		+1.0
18	12-6	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.6
19	13-6	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Sally Marong	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.9
20	13-7	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.6
21	14-7	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Olivia Edlund	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.9
22	15-7	NO DAK	NO DAK	Kill	Andrea Zaric	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.9
23	15-8	NO DAK	STTHOM×6	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.5
24	15-9	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Andrea Zaric	+0.7
25	15-10	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Attack err	Lilliana Montes		+0.8
26	15-11	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Andrea Zaric	+0.9
27	15-12	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Attack err	Andrea Zaric		+1.0
28	15-13	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Ellee McIntosh	+1.0
29	16-13	STTHOM	NO DAK	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+1.1
30	16-14	NO DAK	STTHOM×3	Blocked	Andrea Zaric	blk Emory Brosnahan, Reilly Kurth	+0.9
31	16-15	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+1.1
32	16-16	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+1.1
33	17-16	STTHOM	NO DAK×3	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	+1.1
34	18-16	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Blocked	Emory Brosnahan	blk Lilliana Montes, Sally Marong	+1.5
35	19-16	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Blocked	Ellie Gustafson	blk Lilliana Montes, Ellee McIntosh	+1.6
36	19-17	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+1.0
37	20-17	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Reagan McIntosh	set Skylar Darr	+1.5
38	21-17	NO DAK	NO DAK	Blocked	Heidi Wingate	blk Olivia Edlund, Sally Marong	+1.7
39	21-18	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.8
40	22-18	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Sally Marong	set Skylar Darr	+1.4
41	22-19	NO DAK	STTHOM×4	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.8
42	22-20	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.3
43	22-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Ellie Gustafson	+1.7
44	22-22	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.0
45	23-22	STTHOM	NO DAK	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.3
46	23-23	NO DAK	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota		+2.0
47	24-23	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+3.0
48	24-24	NO DAK	STTHOM×3	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+3.0
49	24-25	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Taylor McNear	+2.7
50	24-26	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.0
Set 2
1	0-1	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Lauren Perugini		+0.3
2	1-1	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Skylar Darr	+0.2
3	1-2	NO DAK	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.2
4	1-3	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Skylar Darr	+0.2
5	2-3	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Ellee McIntosh	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.2
6	3-3	NO DAK	NO DAK	Ace	Skylar Darr	aced Anya Schmidt	+0.3
7	3-4	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Anya Schmidt	+0.2
8	4-4	STTHOM	NO DAK	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+0.3
9	4-5	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.3
10	5-5	STTHOM	NO DAK	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.3
11	5-6	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Kira Brundage	+0.3
12	6-6	STTHOM	NO DAK×4	Blocked	Anya Schmidt	blk Olivia Edlund, Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.3
13	7-6	NO DAK	NO DAK×4	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Morgan Kealy	+0.4
14	8-6	NO DAK	NO DAK×4	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.5
15	9-6	NO DAK	NO DAK×4	Ace	Olivia Edlund	aced Ellie Gustafson	+0.6
16	9-7	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Kira Brundage	+0.4
17	10-7	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.5
18	10-8	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.4
19	10-9	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Taylor McNear	+0.5
20	11-9	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.5
21	12-9	NO DAK	NO DAK	Ace	Lauren Perugini	aced Anya Schmidt	+0.7
22	12-10	NO DAK	STTHOM×11	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.5
23	12-11	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Skylar Darr	+0.6
24	12-12	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.5
25	12-13	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Attack err	Ellee McIntosh		+0.5
26	12-14	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Skylar Darr	+0.4
27	12-15	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Anya Schmidt	+0.3
28	12-16	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Ellie Gustafson	+0.2
29	12-17	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)		+0.2
30	12-18	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Attack err	Lilliana Montes		+0.1
31	12-19	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Attack err	Lauren Perugini		+0.1
32	12-20	STTHOM	STTHOM×11	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	·
33	13-20	STTHOM	NO DAK	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson		·
34	14-20	NO DAK	NO DAK	Kill	Olivia Edlund	set Reagan McIntosh	·
35	14-21	NO DAK	STTHOM×3	Bad set	Sally Marong		·
36	14-22	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Ellie Gustafson	·
37	14-23	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Lauren Perugini	·
38	15-23	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Ellee McIntosh	set Heidi Wingate	·
39	15-24	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	·
40	15-25	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Miriam Unongo	set Kira Brundage	·
Set 3
1	1-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.2
2	2-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.2
3	3-0	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Blocked	Audrey Kocon	blk Ellee McIntosh, Lilliana Montes	+0.2
4	3-1	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
5	3-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
6	4-2	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.2
7	4-3	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
8	5-3	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.2
9	5-4	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
10	5-5	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
11	6-5	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.2
12	6-6	NO DAK	STTHOM×5	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.1
13	6-7	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Haley Patton	+0.2
14	6-8	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
15	6-9	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
16	6-10	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
17	7-10	STTHOM	NO DAK	Blocked	Ellie Gustafson	blk Olivia Edlund	+0.1
18	8-10	NO DAK	NO DAK	Attack err	Morgan Kealy		+0.1
19	8-11	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
20	9-11	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Olivia Edlund	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.1
21	9-12	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
22	9-13	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Ellee McIntosh	+0.1
23	10-13	STTHOM	NO DAK×3	Blocked	Audrey Kocon	blk An de Hamer, Lilliana Montes	+0.1
24	11-13	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.1
25	12-13	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Kill	An de Hamer	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.2
26	12-14	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
27	13-14	STTHOM	NO DAK	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+0.2
28	13-15	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Ellee McIntosh	+0.2
29	14-15	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.2
30	14-16	NO DAK	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.2
31	14-17	STTHOM	STTHOM	Blocked	Ellee McIntosh	blk Anya Schmidt, Heidi Wingate	+0.2
32	15-17	STTHOM	NO DAK	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+0.1
33	15-18	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
34	15-19	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Haley Patton	+0.1
35	16-19	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Lauren Perugini	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	+0.1
36	16-20	NO DAK	STTHOM	Attack err	Ellee McIntosh		+0.1
37	16-21	STTHOM	STTHOM	Blocked	Ellee McIntosh	blk Reilly Kurth	+0.1
38	17-21	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	An de Hamer	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	·
39	17-22	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
40	18-22	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	An de Hamer	set Ela Vlaisavljevic	·
41	18-23	NO DAK	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota		+0.1
42	19-23	STTHOM	NO DAK×3	Kill	Lilliana Montes	set Reagan McIntosh	·
43	20-23	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Attack err	Heidi Wingate		+0.1
44	21-23	NO DAK	NO DAK×3	Ace	Haley Patton	aced Ellie Gustafson	+0.2
45	21-24	NO DAK	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
46	22-24	STTHOM	NO DAK	Kill	Ellee McIntosh	set Reagan McIntosh	+0.1
47	22-25	NO DAK	STTHOM	Attack err	Lauren Perugini		+0.2

Score shown after each rally, North Dakota first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

St. Thomas (MN) def. North Dakota 3–0

St. Thomas (MN) broke it open with an 11–0 run in the second set.