Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 3, 2026

St. Thomas (MN) def. Montana St. 3–1

St. Thomas (MN) beat visiting Montana St. 3-1 (27-25, 25-27, 25-18, 25-15) on Thu, Sep 3, 2026. St. Thomas (MN)'s Ellie Gustafson led with 15 kills, and Taylor McNear added 12 digs.

Data through · final Sep 3

Set1234Sets
MONTST 252718151
STTHOM272525253

Win probability

St. Thomas (MN) above 50 · Montana St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.2% MONTST rally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.2% to Montana St. — set 2, MONTST 27-25 STTHOM. Attack error by Ellie Gustafson. STTHOM win probability 81% → 74%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MONTST 20.0%80.0% STTHOM

Montana St. wins

3-0
3.3%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
10.1%

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0
31.5%
3-1
30.2%
3-2
18.3%
MONTST break %
39.3% vs this opp
STTHOM break %
45.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ellie GustafsonAttack error+7.2%

    Attack error by Ellie Gustafson

    Set 2 · MONTST 27-25 STTHOM · MONTST 19% → 26%

  2. 02
    Anya SchmidtAttack error+7.0%

    Attack error by Anya Schmidt

    Set 1 · MONTST 24-24 STTHOM · MONTST 15% → 22%

  3. 03
    Elli TuftoAttack error+6.2%

    Attack error by Elli Tufto

    Set 1 · MONTST 25-27 STTHOM · STTHOM 83% → 89%

  4. 04
    Joelie SpeltsKill+6.2%

    Kill by Joelie Spelts (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 2 · MONTST 25-24 STTHOM · MONTST 12% → 19%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ellie Gustafson (set by Morgan Kealy)

    Set 2 · MONTST 23-24 STTHOM · STTHOM 86% → 92%

  6. 06
    Montana St.Service error+5.3%

    Montana St. service error

    Set 1 · MONTST 24-25 STTHOM · STTHOM 78% → 83%

  7. 07
    Joelie SpeltsKill+5.3%

    Kill by Joelie Spelts (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 1 · MONTST 25-25 STTHOM · MONTST 17% → 22%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ellie Gustafson (set by Morgan Kealy)

    Set 1 · MONTST 25-26 STTHOM · STTHOM 78% → 83%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415323.5220004004217
48524.12510251031.59.5
47530.06700000031.58.5
4117.000322170010.53.5
3229.000110210003
1000–00010010.50.5
49728.07100031010.59.5
4127-.14310011132.53.5
4000–0111030001
4000–3041320000
1004.000000000000
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000010000
Team totals4325133.13538484611116985
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4131036.083223111132.517.5
412224.41710000355.517.5
415431.3550127100016
47211.45500000010.57.5
43011.273451150031.55.5
45112.333100000005
4016-.1670541000005
4000–122700002
4000–2031220000
1102.500000100001
1022-1.000000000000
Team totals5622135.25252111553441210102

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MONTST · STTHOM 4

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 3 MONTST STTHOM 4

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 4 MONTST STTHOM 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 MONTST STTHOM 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 2 MONTST STTHOM 4

Bars above the line = St. Thomas (MN) leads, below = Montana St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Montana St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%10/25
31%4/13
2
71%10/14
47%9/19
3
45%10/22
38%6/16
4
63%10/16
17%2/12
5
58%7/12
25%3/12
6
58%7/12
50%7/14
All
53%54/101
36%31/86

St. Thomas (MN)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
40%6/15
2
56%10/18
57%13/23
3
83%10/12
50%10/20
4
83%10/12
47%9/19
5
54%7/13
38%5/13
6
70%7/10
36%4/11
All
64%55/86
47%47/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#MONTST -STTHOMSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errLauren Greeny+1.6
21-1STTHOMMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.3
32-1MONTST MONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
42-2MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Taylor McNear+1.3
53-2STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.5
63-3MONTST STTHOM×3KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.3
73-4STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillMorgan Kealyset Audrey Kocon+1.8
83-5STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Karli Heidemann+1.6
94-5STTHOMMONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+1.2
104-6MONTST STTHOMBlockedElli Tuftoblk Addie Schmotzer, Morgan Kealy+1.2
115-6STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.3
126-6MONTST MONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
136-7MONTST STTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.4
146-8STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.8
157-8STTHOMMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.3
168-8MONTST MONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+2.1
178-9MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.5
189-9STTHOMMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.6
199-10MONTST STTHOMKillEmory Brosnahanset Morgan Kealy+1.6
2010-10STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.7
2110-11MONTST STTHOMServe errMontana St.+1.6
2211-11STTHOMMONTST ×3KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.7
2312-11MONTST MONTST ×3Attack errAnya Schmidt+2.6
2413-11MONTST MONTST ×3KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+2.8
2513-12MONTST STTHOM×4Serve errMontana St.+1.8
2613-13STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errElli Esko+2.6
2713-14STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Nicolette Noble+2.5
2813-15STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedJoelie Speltsblk Anya Schmidt+2.3
2914-15STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.7
3014-16MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.8
3114-17STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errElli Tufto+2.1
3215-17STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.4
3315-18MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Addie Schmotzer+1.6
3416-18STTHOMMONTST BlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Lauren Schloe, Teagan Jaynes+1.4
3517-18MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Taylor McNear+2.5
3617-19MONTST STTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Teagan Jaynes+2.1
3718-19STTHOMMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Nicolette Noble+2.0
3818-20MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.3
3919-20STTHOMMONTST ×3Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.1
4020-20MONTST MONTST ×3Attack errAnya Schmidt+3.8
4121-20MONTST MONTST ×3KillJoelie Spelts+4.7
4221-21MONTST STTHOM×3KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+3.3
4321-22STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+4.8
4421-23STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElli Esko+4.2
4522-23STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.3
4622-24MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+3.6
4723-24STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.1
4824-24MONTST MONTST Attack errAnya Schmidt+7.0
4924-25MONTST STTHOMServe errMontana St.+5.3
5025-25STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+5.3
5125-26MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+5.3
5225-27STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errElli Tufto+6.2
Set 2
10-1MONTST STTHOM×3KillEmory Brosnahanset Morgan Kealy+0.9
20-2STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errAlice Steman+1.2
30-3STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElli Tufto+1.0
41-3STTHOMMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+0.8
52-3MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Ellie Gustafson+1.2
62-4MONTST STTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+0.9
73-4STTHOMMONTST KillElli Eskoset Nicolette Noble+0.9
83-5MONTST STTHOMBlockedLauren Greenyblk Anya Schmidt, Addie Schmotzer+0.9
94-5STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+0.9
104-6MONTST STTHOMKillMorgan Kealyset Taylor McNear+0.9
115-6STTHOMMONTST Attack errReilly Kurth+1.0
125-7MONTST STTHOMKillMorgan Kealyset Anya Schmidt+1.0
136-7STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.0
146-8MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.0
157-8STTHOMMONTST ×3KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.0
168-8MONTST MONTST ×3Attack errAnya Schmidt+1.6
179-8MONTST MONTST ×3KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.8
189-9MONTST STTHOM×3KillReilly Kurthset Taylor McNear+1.2
199-10STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Alice Steman+1.6
209-11STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.5
2110-11STTHOMMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.1
2210-12MONTST STTHOMKillEmory Brosnahanset Morgan Kealy+1.1
2311-12STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.1
2411-13MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.2
2512-13STTHOMMONTST Attack errAddie Schmotzer+1.2
2612-14MONTST STTHOMServe errMontana St.+1.2
2712-15STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.5
2813-15STTHOMMONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+1.0
2914-15MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Anya Schmidt+1.7
3014-16MONTST STTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+1.3
3115-16STTHOMMONTST ×4KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.3
3216-16MONTST MONTST ×4KillTeagan Jaynesset Lauren Greeny+2.2
3317-16MONTST MONTST ×4BlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Alice Steman+2.5
3418-16MONTST MONTST ×4KillElli Tuftoset Alice Steman+2.7
3518-17MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.7
3619-17STTHOMMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
3720-17MONTST MONTST KillAudrey Koconset Teagan Jaynes+2.8
3820-18MONTST STTHOM×4KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.5
3920-19STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedLauren Greenyblk Addie Schmotzer+2.7
4020-20STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errElli Tufto+3.1
4120-21STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedTeagan Jaynesblk Addie Schmotzer+3.2
4221-21STTHOMMONTST BlockedAudrey Koconblk Elli Tufto, Alice Steman+2.4
4321-22MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.6
4422-22STTHOMMONTST Attack errAnya Schmidt+2.7
4523-22MONTST MONTST BlockedAnya Schmidtblk Joelie Spelts, Lauren Greeny+4.9
4623-23MONTST STTHOMServe errMontana St.+3.4
4723-24STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+5.5
4824-24STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.0
4925-24MONTST MONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+6.2
5025-25MONTST STTHOMBlockedElli Eskoblk Morgan Kealy, Addie Schmotzer+4.6
5126-25STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.6
5227-25MONTST MONTST Attack errEllie Gustafson+7.2
Set 3
10-1STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElli Esko+2.5
20-2STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)+2.3
30-3STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errLauren Greeny+2.1
41-3STTHOMMONTST Attack errReilly Kurth+1.5
52-3MONTST MONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
62-4MONTST STTHOMServe errMontana St.+1.8
73-4STTHOMMONTST ×3Attack errElli Esko+1.8
84-4MONTST MONTST ×3BlockedEmory Brosnahanblk Joelie Spelts, Elli Esko+2.8
95-4MONTST MONTST ×3Attack errAnya Schmidt+3.1
105-5MONTST STTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+2.2
116-5STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
126-6MONTST STTHOM×4KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.3
136-7STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+3.0
146-8STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Afton Thomsen+2.7
156-9STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedElli Tuftoblk Addie Schmotzer, Morgan Kealy+2.4
167-9STTHOMMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.7
177-10MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.8
188-10STTHOMMONTST ×3Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.8
199-10MONTST MONTST ×3KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.9
2010-10MONTST MONTST ×3AceMontana St.aced Taylor McNear+3.4
2110-11MONTST STTHOM×4KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.5
2210-12STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillEllie Gustafsonset Anya Schmidt+3.1
2310-13STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errKarli Heidemann+2.7
2410-14STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Afton Thomsen+2.3
2511-14STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.5
2611-15MONTST STTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.7
2712-15STTHOMMONTST ×3KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+1.5
2813-15MONTST MONTST ×3KillElli Eskoset Karli Heidemann+2.7
2914-15MONTST MONTST ×3BlockedAnya Schmidtblk Lauren Greeny, Joelie Spelts+3.4
3014-16MONTST STTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+2.7
3115-16STTHOMMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+2.7
3216-16MONTST MONTST Attack errAnya Schmidt+4.4
3316-17MONTST STTHOM×4KillEmory Brosnahanset Morgan Kealy+3.3
3416-18STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+4.2
3516-19STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Lauren Greeny+3.5
3616-20STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+2.6
3717-20STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Audrey Kocon+1.4
3817-21MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.9
3917-22STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errKarli Heidemann+1.5
4018-22STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+0.6
4118-23MONTST STTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.0
4218-24STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+0.5
4318-25STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+0.1
Set 4
10-1MONTST STTHOMServe errMontana St.+1.5
20-2STTHOMSTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.9
31-2STTHOMMONTST KillLauren Greeny+1.4
42-2MONTST MONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+2.1
52-3MONTST STTHOMBlockedLauren Greenyblk Anya Schmidt, Addie Schmotzer+1.5
63-3STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.6
73-4MONTST STTHOM×4Serve errMontana St.+1.6
83-5STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Elli Tufto+2.0
93-6STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedJoelie Speltsblk Addie Schmotzer+1.8
103-7STTHOMSTTHOM×4Bad setTeagan Jaynes+1.5
114-7STTHOMMONTST BlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Lauren Greeny, Joelie Spelts+1.1
124-8MONTST STTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.1
135-8STTHOMMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.1
145-9MONTST STTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+1.2
155-10STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errJoelie Spelts+1.3
166-10STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Emory Brosnahan+0.9
176-11MONTST STTHOM×3KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.0
186-12STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElli Tufto+1.0
196-13STTHOMSTTHOM×3BlockedAlice Stemanblk Reilly Kurth, Anya Schmidt+0.7
207-13STTHOMMONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+0.4
217-14MONTST STTHOM×4KillAnya Schmidtset Emory Brosnahan+0.5
227-15STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errElli Esko+0.5
237-16STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Afton Thomsen+0.3
247-17STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errElli Esko+0.2
258-17STTHOMMONTST Attack errAnya Schmidt+0.1
269-17MONTST MONTST Attack errAddie Schmotzer+0.2
279-18MONTST STTHOM×3KillEmory Brosnahanset Kira Brundage+0.2
289-19STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Teya Yeomans+0.1
299-20STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Nicolette Noble+0.1
3010-20STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)·
3110-21MONTST STTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy·
3211-21STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes·
3311-22MONTST STTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy·
3412-22STTHOMMONTST Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)·
3512-23MONTST STTHOMKillMaddy Benkaset Morgan Kealy·
3613-23STTHOMMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes·
3713-24MONTST STTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy·
3814-24STTHOMMONTST BlockedMiriam Unongoblk Alice Steman, Elli Esko·
3915-24MONTST MONTST BlockedMiriam Unongoblk Alice Steman, Elli Esko·
4015-25MONTST STTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy·

Score shown after each rally, Montana St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).