Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 4, 2026Watch on MW+

New Mexico def. Nevada 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: New Mexico 79.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 2:16 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Mexico beat visiting Nevada 3-1 (23-25, 25-20, 25-17, 25-15) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. New Mexico's Addison France led with 14 kills, and Mina Stanojevic added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 4

Set1234Sets
NEVADA252017151
N MEX232525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

New Mexico broke it open with an 8–0 run in the fourth set.

Win probability never moved more than 7.0 points on one rally; Nevada topped out at 49% in Set 2. RallyIQ gave New Mexico 80% before first serve.

NevadaNew Mexico
  • Break %+13.3 pts
    37.250.5

    49 of 97 on serve vs 29 of 78, so Nevada's sideout was 49.5%.

  • Hitting+.120
    .164.284

    58 kills, 20 errors vs 46 kills, 23 errors.

New Mexico above 50Nevada belowMax swing 7.0%

NevadaNew Mexico

Aces
Nevada 4·New Mexico 7
Serve err
Nevada 9·New Mexico 7
Blocks
Nevada 10·New Mexico 62 BS · 16 BA vs 2 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Nevada 42·New Mexico 55

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

New Mexico above 50 · Nevada below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.0% NEVADArally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.0% to Nevada — set 1, NEVADA 25-23 N MEX. Kill by Paige Thies (set by Karly Bonaventure). N MEX win probability 67% → 60%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NEVADA 14.2%85.8% N MEX

Nevada wins

3-0
2.1%
3-1
4.5%
3-2
7.6%

New Mexico wins

3-0
38.1%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.2%
NEVADA break %
38.0% vs this opp
N MEX break %
46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Paige ThiesKill+7.0%

    Kill by Paige Thies (set by Karly Bonaventure)

    Set 1 · NEVADA 25-23 N MEX · NEVADA 33% → 40%

  2. 02
    NevadaService error+6.9%

    Nevada service error

    Set 1 · NEVADA 24-22 N MEX · NEVADA 29% → 36%

  3. 03
    NevadaService error+5.5%

    Nevada service error

    Set 1 · NEVADA 22-21 N MEX · NEVADA 22% → 28%

  4. 04
    New MexicoService error+4.8%

    New Mexico service error

    Set 1 · NEVADA 23-22 N MEX · NEVADA 24% → 29%

  5. 05
    Paige ThiesAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Paige Thies

    Set 2 · NEVADA 18-21 N MEX · N MEX 66% → 70%

  6. 06
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.7%

    Point Nevada (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 2 · NEVADA 16-17 N MEX · NEVADA 34% → 38%

  7. 07
    NevadaService error+3.7%

    Nevada service error

    Set 1 · NEVADA 22-22 N MEX · N MEX 72% → 76%

  8. 08
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.4%

    Point New Mexico (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 2 · NEVADA 18-20 N MEX · N MEX 62% → 66%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Nevadaaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411640.12511221010.512.5
410728.1070003004212
47011.636283180010.510.5
45415.067100000638
46113.385002201228
4000–300510000
4001.0006011840000
4000–203300000
35220.15000001111.56.5
22312-.08300010010.52.5
1000–000000000
Team totals4623140.16441494272161077
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413730.200121130010.515.5
414434.2942007010115
48427.14802120031.511.5
411218.50000010010.511.5
48118.389000700219
4427.286462280111.57.5
4000–3011030000
3000–112710001
Team totals5820134.284537755428698

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Nevada vs New Mexico

Season series · New Mexico leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 NEVADA · N MEX 8

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 7 NEVADAN MEX 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 NEVADAN MEX 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 NEVADAN MEX 6

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 4 NEVADAN MEX 8

Bars above the line = New Mexico leads, below = Nevada leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Nevada

No clean sets to split.

New Mexico

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#NEVADA-N MEXSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1N MEXN MEXKillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+1.7
21-1N MEXNEVADA×7Attack errAddison France+1.3
32-1NEVADANEVADA×7KillPaige Thies+1.9
43-1NEVADANEVADA×7AceNevadaaced Camila Canedo+2.1
54-1NEVADANEVADA×7KillKarly Bonaventure+2.2
65-1NEVADANEVADA×7Attack errCampbell Hollister+2.2
76-1NEVADANEVADA×7Attack errMina Stanojevic+2.1
87-1NEVADANEVADA×7AceNevadaaced Camila Canedo+2.0
97-2NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+1.1
108-2N MEXNEVADAAttack errCampbell Hollister+1.5
118-3NEVADAN MEX×4KillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+1.1
128-4N MEXN MEX×4KillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+1.8
138-5N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
148-6N MEXN MEX×4AceNew Mexicoaced Masyn Navarro+2.1
159-6N MEXNEVADAAttack errAddison France+1.8
169-7NEVADAN MEXKillUliana Yastrubset Madeleine Miller+1.5
179-8N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
1810-8N MEXNEVADAKillCeren Sertset Adriana Dorn+1.9
1910-9NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+1.7
2011-9N MEXNEVADABlockedMadeleine Millerblk Malia Pilimai+1.9
2112-9NEVADA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.7
2212-10NEVADAN MEX×3KillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+1.7
2312-11N MEXN MEX×3Serve errNew Mexico+2.5
2412-12N MEXN MEX×3BlockedPaige Thiesblk Campbell Hollister, Madeleine Miller+2.5
2513-12N MEXNEVADAAttack errCampbell Hollister+2.0
2614-12NEVADANEVADAKillKarly Bonaventureset Adriana Dorn+3.0
2714-13NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+1.9
2815-13N MEXNEVADAKillPaige Thiesset Adriana Dorn+2.3
2915-14NEVADAN MEX×4Serve errNevada+2.0
3015-15N MEXN MEX×4Attack errMadison Long+2.9
3115-16N MEXN MEX×4KillUliana Yastrub+2.9
3215-17N MEXN MEX×4Attack errMadison Long+2.6
3316-17N MEXNEVADAKillPaige Thiesset Adriana Dorn+1.8
3417-17NEVADANEVADAAceNevadaaced Camila Canedo+3.1
3517-18NEVADAN MEXKillCampbell Hollisterset Madeleine Miller+2.3
3618-18N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Longset Adriana Dorn+2.4
3718-19NEVADAN MEXKillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+2.5
3819-19N MEXNEVADAKillCeren Sertset Adriana Dorn+2.6
3919-20NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+2.7
4020-20N MEXNEVADAKillAdriana Dorn+2.8
4120-21NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+3.0
4221-21N MEXNEVADAKillAdriana Dornset Summer Suppik+3.1
4322-21NEVADANEVADAServe errNevada+5.5
4422-22NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada+3.7
4523-22N MEXNEVADAServe errNew Mexico+4.8
4624-22NEVADANEVADAServe errNevada+6.9
4724-23N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.7
4825-23N MEXNEVADAKillPaige Thiesset Karly Bonaventure+7.0
Set 2
11-0NEVADANEVADA×3KillAdriana Dorn+2.8
22-0NEVADA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.1
33-0NEVADANEVADA×3KillPaige Thiesset Adriana Dorn+3.2
43-1NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+2.1
54-1N MEXNEVADAServe errNew Mexico+2.4
64-2NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada+2.1
74-3N MEXN MEXServe errNew Mexico+3.0
85-3N MEXNEVADAKillMalia Pilimaiset Adriana Dorn+2.4
95-4N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.2
105-5N MEXN MEXServe errNew Mexico+3.1
116-5N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Longset Adriana Dorn+2.4
126-6NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada+2.2
137-6N MEXNEVADAKillCeren Sertset Adriana Dorn+2.5
147-7NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+2.3
157-8N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.1
168-8N MEXNEVADAKillCeren Sertset Adriana Dorn+2.4
178-9NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada+2.3
189-9N MEXNEVADAKillAdriana Dorn+2.4
199-10NEVADAN MEX×3KillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+2.4
209-11N MEXN MEX×3KillCampbell Hollisterset Madeleine Miller+3.1
219-12N MEXN MEX×3KillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+2.7
2210-12N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Longset Adriana Dorn+1.8
2310-13NEVADAN MEXKillMadeleine Millerset Camila Canedo+2.0
2411-13N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Longset Adriana Dorn+1.9
2512-13NEVADANEVADAKillMadison Longset Masyn Navarro+3.2
2612-14NEVADAN MEX×3KillCampbell Hollisterset Madeleine Miller+2.4
2712-15N MEXN MEX×3AceNew Mexicoaced Malia Pilimai+3.0
2812-16N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
2913-16N MEXNEVADAKillMalia Pilimaiset Adriana Dorn+1.4
3014-16NEVADANEVADABlockedUliana Yastrubblk Ceren Sert, Adriana Dorn+2.7
3114-17NEVADAN MEXKillUliana Yastrubset Adriana Dorn+2.3
3215-17N MEXNEVADAKillMalia Pilimaiset Adriana Dorn+2.0
3316-17NEVADA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
3416-18NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+3.0
3517-18N MEXNEVADAKillCeren Sertset Adriana Dorn+2.9
3617-19NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada+3.2
3718-19N MEXNEVADAServe errNew Mexico+3.0
3818-20N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
3918-21N MEXN MEX×5Attack errPaige Thies+3.8
4018-22N MEXN MEX×5KillMadeleine Millerset Mina Stanojevic+2.5
4118-23N MEXN MEX×5KillMina Stanojevic+1.3
42–4319-24NEVADA · N MEX
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
4420-24NEVADANEVADAKillMadison Longset Adriana Dorn+0.2
4520-25NEVADAN MEXAttack errMadison Long+0.4
Set 3
11-0N MEXNEVADAKillKarly Bonaventureset Adriana Dorn+2.1
21-1N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
31-2N MEXN MEXAceNew Mexicoaced Paige Thies+2.6
42-2N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Long+2.0
53-2NEVADANEVADAKillMalia Pilimaiset Adriana Dorn+3.0
63-3NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+2.1
73-4N MEXN MEXKillUliana Yastrubset Madeleine Miller+2.8
84-4N MEXNEVADABlockedAddison Franceblk Malia Pilimai, Karly Bonaventure+2.1
94-5NEVADAN MEXAttack errPaige Thies+2.0
105-5N MEXNEVADAServe errNew Mexico+2.2
115-6NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada+2.1
126-6N MEXNEVADAKillMalia Pilimaiset Adriana Dorn+2.2
137-6NEVADA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
147-7NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+2.3
158-7N MEXNEVADAKillPaige Thiesset Adriana Dorn+2.6
168-8NEVADAN MEXKillMadeleine Millerset Addison France+2.4
178-9N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.2
189-9N MEXNEVADAKillKarly Bonaventureset Adriana Dorn+2.4
199-10NEVADAN MEX×3KillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+2.4
209-11N MEXN MEX×3Attack errMadison Long+3.1
219-12N MEXN MEX×3Bad setAdriana Dorn+2.7
2210-12N MEXNEVADAKillKarly Bonaventure+1.8
2311-12NEVADANEVADAAttack errCampbell Hollister+3.1
2411-13NEVADAN MEX×6Attack errKarly Bonaventure+2.3
2511-14N MEXN MEX×6AceNew Mexicoaced Masyn Navarro+2.9
2611-15N MEXN MEX×6KillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+2.3
2711-16N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
2811-17N MEXN MEX×6Serve errNew Mexico+1.2
2911-18N MEXN MEX×6KillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+0.8
3012-18N MEXNEVADAKillMckaley Herrset Masyn Navarro+0.4
3112-19NEVADAN MEXKillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+0.5
3213-19N MEXNEVADAKillMckaley Herrset Adriana Dorn+0.3
3313-20NEVADAN MEXKillUliana Yastrubset Madeleine Miller+0.5
3414-20N MEXNEVADAKillCeren Sertset Adriana Dorn+0.3
3514-21NEVADAN MEX×3KillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+0.4
3614-22N MEXN MEX×3KillMina Stanojevic+0.2
3714-23N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
3815-23N MEXNEVADA×3KillPaige Thies·
3916-23NEVADANEVADA×3Attack errReagan Miller·
4017-23NEVADA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
4117-24NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+0.1
4217-25N MEXN MEXAttack errPaige Thies·
Set 4
11-0NEVADANEVADAAceNevadaaced Ella Joesting+2.3
22-0NEVADA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
32-1NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevic+1.6
42-2N MEXN MEXKillMina Stanojevic+2.3
53-2N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Long+1.8
63-3NEVADAN MEX×8KillAddison France+1.6
73-4N MEXN MEX×8KillCampbell Hollisterset Madeleine Miller+2.2
83-5N MEXN MEX×8Attack errMadison Long+2.0
93-6N MEXN MEX×8KillCampbell Hollisterset Madeleine Miller+1.8
10–144-10NEVADA · N MEX 4
NCAA feed gap5 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.2
154-11NEVADAN MEXKillUliana Yastrub+0.5
164-12N MEXN MEXAttack errCeren Sert+0.5
175-12N MEXNEVADAAttack errCeren Sert+0.3
185-13N MEX
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
195-14N MEXN MEX×3Attack errMckaley Herr+0.3
20–216-15NEVADA · N MEX
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
226-16NEVADAN MEXKillMina Stanojevic+0.1
237-16N MEXNEVADAAttack errMina Stanojevic+0.1
247-17NEVADAN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller+0.1
25–269-17NEVADA 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
2710-17NEVADANEVADA×4KillPaige Thiesset Summer Suppik+0.3
2811-17NEVADANEVADA×4KillPaige Thiesset Summer Suppik+0.4
2911-18NEVADAN MEX×4KillMina Stanojevicset Madeleine Miller+0.4
3011-19N MEXN MEX×4AceNew Mexicoaced Summer Suppik+0.3
3111-20N MEXN MEX×4BlockedKarly Bonaventureblk Mina Stanojevic, Campbell Hollister+0.2
3211-21N MEXN MEX×4KillAddison Franceset Madeleine Miller+0.1
3312-21N MEXNEVADABlockedMina Stanojevicblk Madison Long, Karly Bonaventure·
3413-21NEVADANEVADABlockedMina Stanojevicblk Karly Bonaventure, Mckaley Herr+0.1
3513-22NEVADAN MEXAttack errMadison Long+0.1
3614-22N MEXNEVADAServe errNew Mexico·
3714-23NEVADAN MEXBlockedMckaley Herrblk Addison France·
3815-23N MEXNEVADAKillMadison Longset Adriana Dorn·
3915-24NEVADAN MEXServe errNevada·
4015-25N MEXN MEXKillReagan Millerset Madeleine Miller·

Score shown after each rally, Nevada first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).