Missouri State vs Western Ky.: Western Ky. Wins 3-0 (Oct 2)

FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Ky. 82.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Western Ky. beat visiting Missouri St. 3-0 (25-18, 25-22, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Faith Young and Kaira Knox led Western Ky. with 10 kills each; Missouri St.'s Rilynn Finley had a match-high 16.

Data through Nov 3, 4:50 PM CT · final Oct 2

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MO ST	18	22	22	0
W KY	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.318 to .145: Western Ky. outhit Missouri St.

Win probability never moved more than 2.6 points on one rally; Missouri St. topped out at 16% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Western Ky. at 82%.

Missouri St.Western Ky.

Break %+10.8 pts
36.547.3
35 of 74 on serve vs 23 of 63, so Missouri St.'s sideout was 52.7%.
Hitting+.173
.145.318
43 K / 9 E against 38 K / 20 E.

Western Ky. above 50Missouri St. belowMax swing 2.6%

Missouri St.Western Ky.

Aces: Missouri St. 3·Western Ky. 4
Serve err: Missouri St. 7·Western Ky. 9
Blocks: Missouri St. 2·Western Ky. 90 BS · 4 BA vs 2 BS · 14 BA
Digs: Missouri St. 46·Western Ky. 50

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Western Ky. above 50 · Missouri St. below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Western Ky. — set 2, MO ST 18-19 W KY. Attack error by Hannah Gardner. W KY win probability 89% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MO ST 17.3%82.7% W KY

Missouri St. wins

3-0

2.7%

3-1

5.6%

3-2

8.9%

Western Ky. wins

3-0

34.4%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

17.4%

MO ST break %: 36.0% vs this opp
W KY break %: 43.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Hannah GardnerAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Hannah Gardner
Set 2 · MO ST 18-19 W KY · W KY 89% → 91%
02
Missouri St.Ace+2.6%
Missouri St. ace on Kate Rush
Set 2 · MO ST 17-15 W KY · MO ST 13% → 15%
03
Izzy Van De WieleBlock+2.5%
Hannah Redrow stuffed by Izzy Van De Wiele
Set 2 · MO ST 19-21 W KY · W KY 91% → 94%
04
Eliza McKnightKill+2.4%
Kill by Eliza McKnight (set by Kate Rush)
Set 2 · MO ST 17-17 W KY · W KY 86% → 89%
05
Kaira KnoxAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Kaira Knox
Set 2 · MO ST 15-14 W KY · MO ST 10% → 12%
06
Kaira KnoxAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Kaira Knox
Set 2 · MO ST 13-10 W KY · MO ST 14% → 16%
07
Missouri St.Ace+2.0%
Missouri St. ace on Cali Foster
Set 2 · MO ST 12-10 W KY · MO ST 12% → 14%
08
Western Ky.Ace+2.0%
Western Ky. ace on Brooke Eslinger
Set 2 · MO ST 13-13 W KY · W KY 87% → 89%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Missouri St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Rilynn FinleyOH	3	16	5	41	.268	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16
7Lexi WeinbergOPP	3	8	2	25	.240	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8
1Chloe JuddMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	5.5
18Hannah GardnerS	3	2	4	13	-.154	20	1	0	9	0	1	0.5	3.5
15Avery SandsDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	1
12Hannah RedrowMB	2	0	2	9	-.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
4Jenna WaltersOH	3	2	3	14	-.071	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Halle RillieS	3	1	0	2	.500	10	1	2	7	0	0	0	2
8Brooke EslingerDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	0	2	13	1	0	0	1
10Riley OurthDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0
9Neele'ge' SimsMB	2	2	2	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
6Halle KerkmanOH	1	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		38	20	124	.145	34	3	7	46	4	4	2	62

Western Ky.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Faith YoungOH	3	10	0	21	.476	0	1	1	4	0	1	4	3	14
5Kaira KnoxOH	3	10	3	25	.280	0	1	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
21Eliza McKnightOH	3	8	1	13	.538	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
16Sonja LaaksonenOH	3	5	3	20	.100	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	6
20Kate RushS	3	1	0	3	.333	36	0	2	6	1	0	2	1	2
8Cali FosterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
17Alivia SkidmoreOH	3	8	2	22	.273	0	2	2	5	0	0	2	1	11
25Izzy Van De WieleMB	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3
3Kennedy CherryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
2Tayler BaronL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	14	0	0	0	0	0
9Camila AdamsDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	9	107	.318	41	4	9	50	3	2	14	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Missouri St. vs Western Ky.

Season series · Western Ky. leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 2, 2026Missouri St. at Western Ky. · Western Ky. won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 3, 2026Missouri St. at Western Ky. · Western Ky. won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MO ST · W KY 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 MO STW KY 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 MO STW KY 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 MO STW KY 7

Bars above the line = Western Ky. leads, below = Missouri St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Missouri St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	29%2/7
2	100%4/4	38%3/8
3	57%4/7	33%2/6
4	67%4/6	20%1/5
5	44%4/9	43%3/7
6	44%4/9	50%4/8
All	51%25/49	37%15/41

Western Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	56%5/9
2	63%5/8	50%5/10
3	80%4/5	20%1/5
4	50%4/8	33%2/6
5	80%4/5	60%6/10
6	57%4/7	56%5/9
All	63%26/41	49%24/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

137 rallies

#	MO ST-W KY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	W KY	W KY×3	Blocked	Lexi Weinberg	blk Faith Young, Sonja Laaksonen	+1.6
2	0-2	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.5
3	0-3	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Tayler Baron	+1.3
4	1-3	W KY	MO ST	Serve err	Western Ky.		+0.8
5	1-4	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.8
6	2-4	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.8
7	2-5	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.8
8	3-5	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.8
9	3-6	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.9
10	4-6	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.9
11	4-7	MO ST	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.9
12	4-8	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	Western Ky.	aced Riley Ourth	+1.2
13	4-9	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.9
14	5-9	W KY	MO ST	Bad set	Kate Rush		+0.5
15	5-10	MO ST	W KY×4	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.6
16	5-11	W KY	W KY×4	Bad set	Hannah Gardner		+0.7
17	5-12	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
18	5-13	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Faith Young		+0.3
19	6-13	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
20	6-14	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.2
21	7-14	W KY	MO ST	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+0.1
22	8-14	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley		+0.3
23	8-15	MO ST	W KY	Serve err	Missouri St.		+0.3
24	9-15	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.2
25	10-15	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.5
26	10-16	MO ST	W KY	Serve err	Missouri St.		+0.4
27	10-17	W KY	W KY	Blocked	Hannah Gardner	blk Eliza McKnight, Alivia Skidmore	+0.4
28	11-17	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
29	11-18	MO ST	W KY	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+0.2
30	12-18	W KY	MO ST×4	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.1
31	13-18	MO ST	MO ST×4	Bad set	Kate Rush		+0.4
32	14-18	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Eliza McKnight		+0.7
33	15-18	MO ST	MO ST×4	Blocked	Kaira Knox	blk Jenna Walters, Hannah Redrow	+1.1
34	15-19	MO ST	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Eliza McKnight	+0.9
35	15-20	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	Western Ky.	aced Riley Ourth	+0.9
36	15-21	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
37	16-21	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.2
38	17-21	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	Missouri St.	aced Eliza McKnight	+0.5
39	17-22	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.5
40	17-23	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.3
41	18-23	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.1
42	18-24	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.1
43	18-25	W KY	W KY	Blocked	Rilynn Finley	blk Kate Rush, Faith Young	·
Set 2
1	0-1	MO ST	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.7
2	0-2	W KY	W KY×3	Blocked	Hannah Redrow	blk Faith Young	+1.1
3	0-3	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+1.0
4	1-3	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.6
5	2-3	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Brooke Eslinger	+1.1
6	2-4	MO ST	W KY	Blocked	Rilynn Finley	blk Kate Rush, Faith Young	+0.7
7	3-4	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
8	3-5	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.7
9	3-6	W KY	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Eliza McKnight	+1.0
10	4-6	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.6
11	5-6	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+1.2
12	5-7	MO ST	W KY	Serve err	Missouri St.		+0.8
13	5-8	W KY	W KY	Blocked	Hannah Gardner	blk Izzy Van De Wiele, Alivia Skidmore	+1.1
14	6-8	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Halle Rillie	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.7
15	6-9	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.7
16	7-9	W KY	MO ST×4	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+0.7
17	8-9	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+1.3
18	9-9	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Hannah Gardner	+1.6
19	10-9	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Jenna Walters	+1.8
20	10-10	MO ST	W KY	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+1.1
21	11-10	W KY	MO ST×3	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.2
22	12-10	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	Missouri St.	aced Cali Foster	+2.0
23	13-10	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+2.1
24	13-11	MO ST	W KY×4	Serve err	Missouri St.		+1.1
25	13-12	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.9
26	13-13	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	Western Ky.	aced Brooke Eslinger	+2.0
27	13-14	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+1.9
28	14-14	W KY	MO ST	Serve err	Western Ky.		+1.2
29	15-14	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+2.2
30	15-15	MO ST	W KY	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+1.3
31	16-15	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+1.5
32	17-15	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	Missouri St.	aced Kate Rush	+2.6
33	17-16	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.4
34	17-17	W KY	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+2.4
35	18-17	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Brooke Eslinger	set Hannah Gardner	+1.8
36	18-18	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.6
37	18-19	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+2.6
38	19-19	W KY	MO ST	Serve err	Western Ky.		+1.7
39	19-20	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Izzy Van De Wiele	set Kate Rush	+1.7
40	19-21	W KY	W KY	Blocked	Hannah Redrow	blk Izzy Van De Wiele	+2.5
41	20-21	W KY	MO ST	Serve err	Western Ky.		+1.3
42	20-22	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.7
43	20-23	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+1.8
44	21-23	W KY	MO ST	Serve err	Western Ky.		+0.6
45	21-24	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.1
46	22-24	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.4
47	22-25	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.9
Set 3
1	1-0	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.4
2	1-1	MO ST	W KY	Serve err	Missouri St.		+0.4
3	1-2	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+0.6
4	2-2	W KY	MO ST×3	Serve err	Western Ky.		+0.4
5	3-2	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.7
6	4-2	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.8
7	4-3	MO ST	W KY	Serve err	Missouri St.		+0.4
8	4-4	W KY	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.7
9	5-4	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Avery Sands	+0.5
10	5-5	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.4
11	6-5	W KY	MO ST×3	Serve err	Western Ky.		+0.5
12	7-5	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Neele'ge' Sims		+0.8
13	8-5	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Hannah Gardner	+0.9
14	8-6	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
15	8-7	W KY	W KY	Blocked	Jenna Walters	blk Izzy Van De Wiele, Kaira Knox	+0.8
16	9-7	W KY	MO ST	Serve err	Western Ky.		+0.6
17	9-8	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.5
18	10-8	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.6
19	10-9	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
20	11-9	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.6
21	12-9	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Hannah Gardner	+1.0
22	12-10	MO ST	W KY	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+0.5
23	13-10	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
24	13-11	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
25	13-12	W KY	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.9
26	14-12	W KY	MO ST×3	Serve err	Western Ky.		+0.7
27	15-12	MO ST	MO ST×3	Blocked	Alivia Skidmore	blk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner	+1.1
28	16-12	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Halle Kerkman		+1.0
29	16-13	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Tayler Baron	+0.5
30	17-13	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.7
31	17-14	MO ST	W KY	Serve err	Missouri St.		+0.5
32	18-14	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Neele'ge' Sims	set Halle Rillie	+0.7
33	19-14	MO ST	MO ST	Bad set	Kate Rush		+0.9
34	19-15		W KY	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.3
35	19-16	W KY	W KY×7	Attack err	Neele'ge' Sims		+0.7
36	19-17	W KY	W KY×7	Attack err	Lexi Weinberg		+1.0
37	19-18	W KY	W KY×7	Attack err	Neele'ge' Sims		+1.2
38	19-19	W KY	W KY×7	Kill	Faith Young		+1.4
39	19-20	W KY	W KY×7	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.4
40	19-21	W KY	W KY×7	Blocked	Halle Kerkman	blk Sonja Laaksonen, Faith Young	+1.2
41	20-21	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.6
42	20-22	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.8
43	21-22	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
44	21-23	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Tayler Baron	+0.9
45	22-23	W KY	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.6
46	22-24	MO ST	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.0
47	22-25	W KY	W KY	Ace	Western Ky.	aced Rilynn Finley	+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Missouri St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Western Ky. def. Missouri St. 3–0

.318 to .145: Western Ky. outhit Missouri St.