Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Middle Tenn. def. Missouri St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Missouri St. 57.5% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Middle Tenn. won at Missouri St. 3-2 (15-25, 27-25, 12-25, 25-21, 15-11) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Middle Tenn.'s Sophia Henry led with 19 kills, and Marianne Garcia added 24 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set12345Sets
MIDTEN15271225153
MO ST25252521112

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sophia Henry scored 22.5 points, and Middle Tenn. needed them all against Missouri St.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Middle Tenn.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Missouri St. went in at 57% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Middle Tenn. 17–22 Missouri St.

    From here Middle Tenn. won 10 of 13 rallies to take the set 27–25.

    Middle Tenn. 11% → 44%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Middle Tenn. 2–0 Missouri St.

    5 straight Missouri St. points turned a 0–2 deficit into a 5–2 lead. The match swung to Missouri St.

    Middle Tenn. 51% → 35%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Middle Tenn. 12–10 Missouri St.

    Middle Tenn. won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–11 and win the match 3–2.

    Middle Tenn. 78% → >99%

Missouri St. above 50Middle Tenn. belowMax swing 15.9%

Middle Tenn.Missouri St.

Sideout %
Middle Tenn. 55.6·Missouri St. 63.4
Break %
Middle Tenn. 36.6·Missouri St. 44.4
Hitting
Middle Tenn. .150·Missouri St. .211
Longest run
Middle Tenn. 4·Missouri St. 7

Sophia Henry
19 kills on .169, 22.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Missouri St. above 50 · Middle Tenn. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+15.9% MIDTENrally 201 · set 5

Biggest swing: 15.9% to Middle Tenn. — set 5, MIDTEN 12-10 MO ST. Attack error by Hannah Redrow. MO ST win probability 38% → 22%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIDTEN 34.0%66.0% MO ST

Middle Tenn. wins

3-0
6.9%
3-1
12.2%
3-2
15.0%

Missouri St. wins

3-0
20.6%
3-1
25.3%
3-2
20.0%
MIDTEN break %
40.5% vs this opp
MO ST break %
43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Hannah RedrowAttack error+15.9%

    Attack error by Hannah Redrow

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 12-10 MO ST · MIDTEN 62% → 78%

  2. 02
    Sophia HenryAttack error+14.1%

    Attack error by Sophia Henry

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 10-10 MO ST · MO ST 36% → 50%

  3. 03
    Sophia HenryKill+12.8%

    Kill by Sophia Henry (set by Caroline Macander)

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 13-10 MO ST · MIDTEN 78% → 90%

  4. 04

    Ace by Kendall Mignerey

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 9-7 MO ST · MIDTEN 58% → 71%

  5. 05
    Sophia HenryKill+11.7%

    Kill by Sophia Henry (set by Caroline Macander)

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 11-10 MO ST · MIDTEN 50% → 62%

  6. 06
    Jenna WaltersKill+11.3%

    Kill by Jenna Walters (set by Halle Rillie)

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 7-7 MO ST · MO ST 39% → 51%

  7. 07
    Jaslyn ReedKill+10.5%

    Kill by Jaslyn Reed (set by Danit Cohen)

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 6-4 MO ST · MIDTEN 56% → 67%

  8. 08
    Jaslyn ReedAttack error+9.8%

    Attack error by Jaslyn Reed

    Set 5 · MIDTEN 4-4 MO ST · MO ST 42% → 51%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517949.16300000010.517.5
59116.50000010031.510.5
55417.05900350031.56.5
5013-.333020320002
5002.0002301700000
2035-.60000010010.50.5
519959.169114103132.522.5
5001.0002111110001
5000–6002410000
49332.1880002010110
4013-.333210080010.50.5
1000–001000000
1000–002100000
1000–501200000
Team totals5931187.15058413757212894
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515233.3940005014318
510325.2802501170132.512.5
56113.3850125022310
55415.06700010052.57.5
5000–0211300002
49640.075100300009
510428.2140003010111
5000–6231710002
5005.0002011900001
5000–2101110001
2117.000000100001
Team totals5621166.211547885451412107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Middle Tenn. vs Missouri St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MIDTEN · MO ST 7

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 MIDTENMO ST 7

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 4 MIDTENMO ST 4

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 3 MIDTENMO ST 6

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 3 MIDTENMO ST 3

Set 5

15-11

Longest run 4 MIDTENMO ST 2

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = Middle Tenn. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Middle Tenn.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%12/25
41%7/17
2
55%12/22
37%7/19
3
59%10/17
48%10/21
4
60%9/15
31%4/13
5
64%9/14
18%2/11
6
53%8/15
33%4/12
All
56%60/108
37%34/93

Missouri St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%13/23
50%11/22
2
58%11/19
45%10/22
3
71%10/14
48%10/21
4
69%9/13
44%7/16
5
67%8/12
40%6/15
6
67%8/12
33%4/12
All
63%59/93
44%48/108

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

201 rallies

#MIDTEN-MO STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MIDTENMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.8
21-1MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen+1.8
31-2MIDTENMO ST×7KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.8
41-3MO STMO ST×7Attack errDanielle Lee+2.4
51-4MO STMO ST×7Attack errJaslyn Reed+2.3
61-5MO STMO ST×7KillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.1
71-6MO STMO ST×7Attack errJaslyn Reed+1.9
81-7MO STMO ST×7Attack errDanielle Lee+1.6
91-8MO STMO ST×7BlockedMichaela Dlouháblk Chloe Judd+1.3
102-8MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+0.8
112-9MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+0.9
123-9MO STMIDTEN×3BlockedHannah Gardnerblk Michaela Dlouhá, Jaslyn Reed+0.8
134-9MIDTENMIDTEN×3BlockedJenna Waltersblk Michaela Dlouhá, Sophia Henry+1.3
145-9MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillSophia Henryset Danit Cohen+1.7
155-10MIDTENMO STAttack errSophia Henry+1.4
166-10MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Marianne Garcia+1.2
176-11MIDTENMO STAttack errSophia Henry+1.4
187-11MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Danit Cohen+1.2
197-12MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.5
208-12MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen+1.2
218-13MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.5
229-13MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+1.2
239-14MIDTENMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.5
2410-14MO STMIDTENAttack errChloe Judd+1.2
2510-15MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.5
2610-16MO STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.6
2711-16MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+0.8
2811-17MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.1
2912-17MO STMIDTENAttack errHannah Gardner+0.8
3012-18MIDTENMO ST×3Serve errMiddle Tenn.+1.1
3112-19MO STMO ST×3KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+0.9
3212-20MO STMO ST×3BlockedSophia Henryblk Lexi Weinberg+0.5
3313-20MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Danit Cohen+0.2
3413-21MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+0.3
3514-21MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen+0.1
3615-21MIDTENMIDTENAttack errRilynn Finley+0.3
3715-22MIDTENMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+0.4
3815-23MO STMO ST×4AceMissouri St.aced Kendall Mignerey+0.2
3915-24MO STMO ST×4KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+0.1
4015-25MO STMO ST×4BlockedLogan Carrblk Chloe Judd·
Set 2
10-1MO STMO ST×4BlockedSophia Henryblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+2.3
20-2MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+2.2
30-3MO STMO ST×4BlockedSophia Henryblk Hannah Redrow, Lexi Weinberg+2.1
40-4MO STMO ST×4KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.9
51-4MO STMIDTENAttack errHannah Redrow+1.3
62-4MIDTENMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Madison Wehr+2.0
72-5MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.6
82-6MO STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Brooke Eslinger+2.0
93-6MO STMIDTENServe errMissouri St.+1.3
104-6MIDTENMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Addison Burks+2.1
114-7MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.7
125-7MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Marianne Garcia+1.6
135-8MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.7
146-8MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+1.6
156-9MIDTENMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+1.7
167-9MO STMIDTEN×3KillMichaela Dlouháset Danit Cohen+1.6
178-9MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillJaslyn Reedset Madison Wehr+2.5
189-9MIDTENMIDTEN×3Attack errHannah Redrow+2.8
199-10MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.1
209-11MO STMO STAttack errMichaela Dlouhá+2.8
2110-11MO STMIDTENKillTrinniti Stevensset Madison Wehr+1.9
2211-11MIDTENMIDTENKillTrinniti Stevensset Madison Wehr+3.0
2311-12MIDTENMO ST×3Attack errMichaela Dlouhá+2.2
2411-13MO STMO ST×3BlockedSophia Henryblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+3.0
2511-14MO STMO ST×3AceMissouri St.aced Sophia Henry+2.8
2612-14MO STMIDTENKillTrinniti Stevensset Madison Wehr+1.8
2712-15MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.1
2813-15MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Addison Burks+1.8
2913-16MIDTENMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.1
3014-16MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Danit Cohen+1.9
3115-16MIDTENMIDTENAttack errRilynn Finley+3.1
3215-17MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.6
3315-18MO STMO STBlockedJaslyn Reedblk Hannah Gardner+3.2
3416-18MO STMIDTENBlockedJenna Waltersblk Danielle Lee, Logan Carr+1.9
3516-19MIDTENMO ST×3BlockedDanielle Leeblk Jenna Walters+2.4
3616-20MO STMO ST×3KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.6
3716-21MO STMO ST×3KillHannah Redrow+1.8
3817-21MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Marianne Garcia+0.7
3917-22MIDTENMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Brooke Eslinger+1.2
4018-22MO STMIDTEN×3Serve errMissouri St.+0.6
4119-22MIDTENMIDTEN×3BlockedHannah Redrowblk Sophia Henry+1.5
4220-22MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillTrinniti Stevensset Caroline Macander+2.5
4320-23MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.9
4421-23MO STMIDTEN×4Serve errMissouri St.+1.6
4522-23MIDTENMIDTEN×4Bad setHannah Gardner+4.1
4623-23MIDTENMIDTEN×4Attack errRilynn Finley+6.9
4724-23MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+9.3
4824-24MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+6.8
4924-25MO STMO STBlockedSophia Henryblk Chloe Judd, Lexi Weinberg+9.1
5025-25MO STMIDTEN×3KillTrinniti Stevensset Caroline Macander+6.6
5126-25MIDTENMIDTEN×3BlockedRilynn Finleyblk Logan Carr, Caroline Macander+9.3
5227-25MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+9.7
Set 3
11-0MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Brooke Eslinger+3.4
22-0MIDTENMIDTENAttack errRilynn Finley+3.4
32-1MIDTENMO ST×5Serve errMiddle Tenn.+2.4
42-2MO STMO ST×5Attack errTrinniti Stevens+3.4
52-3MO STMO ST×5Attack errJaslyn Reed+3.4
62-4MO STMO ST×5KillRilynn Finleyset Brooke Eslinger+3.3
72-5MO STMO ST×5AceMissouri St.aced Sophia Henry+3.2
83-5MO STMIDTENServe errMissouri St.+2.2
93-6MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.3
103-7MO STMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+3.0
114-7MO STMIDTEN×3KillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+1.9
125-7MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+3.1
136-7MIDTENMIDTEN×3AceMiddle Tenn.+3.5
146-8MIDTENMO ST×4Attack errJaslyn Reed+2.7
156-9MO STMO ST×4AceMissouri St.aced Marianne Garcia+3.5
166-10MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Brooke Eslinger+3.1
176-11MO STMO ST×4BlockedJaslyn Reedblk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner+2.7
187-11MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+1.6
197-12MIDTENMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.0
207-13MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Riley Ourth+2.2
217-14MO STMO ST×4AceMissouri St.aced Addison Burks+1.6
227-15MO STMO ST×4Attack errMichaela Dlouhá+1.1
238-15MO STMIDTENServe errMissouri St.+0.6
248-16MIDTENMO STKillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+0.8
259-16MO STMIDTENAttack errJenna Walters+0.5
269-17MIDTENMO ST×6KillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+0.7
279-18MO STMO ST×6Attack errKendall Mignerey+0.6
289-19MO STMO ST×6Attack errTrinniti Stevens+0.3
299-20MO STMO ST×6KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+0.1
309-21MO STMO ST×6Attack errSophia Henry+0.1
319-22MO STMO ST×6AceMissouri St.aced Kendall Mignerey·
3210-22MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen·
3310-23MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.·
3411-23MO STMIDTENServe errMissouri St.·
3511-24MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner·
3612-24MO STMIDTENBlockedRilynn Finleyblk Trinniti Stevens·
3712-25MIDTENMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie·
Set 4
11-0MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Sophia Henry+2.3
22-0MIDTENMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Marianne Garcia+3.2
32-1MIDTENMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.2
43-1MO STMIDTENKillTrinniti Stevensset Danit Cohen+2.4
54-1MIDTENMIDTENAttack errLexi Weinberg+3.2
64-2MIDTENMO STServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.2
75-2MO STMIDTENServe errMissouri St.+2.4
85-3MIDTENMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+2.2
96-3MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+2.4
106-4MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+2.2
117-4MO STMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+2.5
127-5MIDTENMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.3
138-5MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.6
148-6MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.3
159-6MO STMIDTEN×3KillLogan Carrset Caroline Macander+2.6
1610-6MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillTrinniti Stevensset Marianne Garcia+3.3
1711-6MIDTENMIDTEN×3Bad setHannah Gardner+3.0
1811-7MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.8
1912-7MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Danit Cohen+2.2
2012-8MIDTENMO ST×3KillLexi Weinbergset Rilynn Finley+1.8
2112-9MO STMO ST×3Attack errJaslyn Reed+2.9
2212-10MO STMO ST×3KillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+3.5
2313-10MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+2.9
2413-11MIDTENMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Brooke Eslinger+2.6
2514-11MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+3.0
2615-11MIDTENMIDTENAttack errJenna Walters+3.7
2715-12MIDTENMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.2
2816-12MO STMIDTEN×3KillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+2.8
2917-12MIDTENMIDTEN×3AceKendall Mignereyaced Riley Ourth+3.1
3018-12MIDTENMIDTEN×3BlockedHannah Gardnerblk Michaela Dlouhá, Sophia Henry+2.3
3118-13MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.1
3219-13MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+1.6
3319-14MIDTENMO STAttack errCaroline Macander+1.0
3420-14MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+1.5
3520-15MIDTENMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+0.8
3621-15MO STMIDTENKillTrinniti Stevensset Caroline Macander+1.4
3722-15MIDTENMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Marianne Garcia+1.0
3822-16MIDTENMO STKillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+0.3
3922-17MO STMO STAceHalle Rillieaced Sophia Henry+0.7
4023-17MO STMIDTENKillTrinniti Stevensset Caroline Macander+1.0
4123-18MIDTENMO STKillAshlyn Blazerset Halle Rillie+0.3
4223-19MO STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Brooke Eslinger+0.9
4324-19MO STMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+1.3
4424-20MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+0.3
4524-21MO STMO STBlockedJaslyn Reedblk Hannah Redrow, Hannah Gardner+1.0
4625-21MO STMIDTENServe errChloe Judd+2.9
Set 5
11-0MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+6.4
21-1MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+6.3
32-1MO STMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+6.7
42-2MIDTENMO STAttack errTrinniti Stevens+6.5
53-2MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen+6.9
64-2MIDTENMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+9.6
74-3MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+6.4
84-4MO STMO STAttack errJaslyn Reed+9.8
95-4MO STMIDTENAttack errAshlyn Blazer+7.6
106-4MIDTENMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+10.5
116-5MIDTENMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+6.9
127-5MO STMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Danit Cohen+8.0
137-6MIDTENMO STServe errAddison Burks+7.2
147-7MO STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+11.3
158-7MO STMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+9.0
169-7MIDTENMIDTENAceKendall Mignerey+12.4
179-8MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+7.9
1810-8MO STMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+9.7
1910-9MIDTENMO STKillJenna Waltersset Riley Ourth+8.2
2010-10MO STMO STAttack errSophia Henry+14.1
2111-10MO STMIDTEN×4KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+11.7
2212-10MIDTENMIDTEN×4Attack errHannah Redrow+15.9
2313-10MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+12.8
2414-10MIDTENMIDTEN×4BlockedLexi Weinbergblk Logan Carr, Sophia Henry+7.3
2514-11MIDTENMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.6
2615-11MO STMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen+3.8

Score shown after each rally, Middle Tenn. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).