FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySOCON

3:0

HomeSUN-BELT

UNC Greensboro def. App State 3–0

(30-28, 25-18, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC G	30	25	26	3
APP ST	28	18	24	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

APP ST above 50 · UNC G below

Biggest swing: 10.5% to UNC Greensboro — set 1, UNC G 30-28 APP ST. Kill by Allie Sweet. APP ST win probability 55% → 45%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNC G 35.0%65.0% APP ST

UNC Greensboro wins

3-0

7.1%

3-1

12.5%

3-2

15.3%

App State wins

3-0

20.0%

3-1

24.9%

3-2

20.1%

UNC G break %: 40.3% vs this opp
APP ST break %: 43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Allie SweetKill+10.5%
Kill by Allie Sweet
Set 1 · UNC G 30-28 APP ST · UNC G 45% → 55%
02
UNC G serverAce+10.0%
UNC Greensboro ace on MeMe Davis
Set 3 · UNC G 26-24 APP ST · UNC G 90% → 100%
03
UNC G serverAce+9.8%
UNC Greensboro ace on Bella Dafforn
Set 1 · UNC G 28-27 APP ST · UNC G 35% → 45%
04
Brooke DohertyKill+9.3%
Kill by Brooke Doherty (set by Raegan Richardson)
Set 1 · UNC G 25-26 APP ST · APP ST 62% → 71%
05
Kendall LanclosKill+9.3%
Kill by Kendall Lanclos (set by Mia Nicklas)
Set 3 · UNC G 25-24 APP ST · UNC G 81% → 90%
06
Kendall LanclosKill+8.7%
Kill by Kendall Lanclos (set by Izora Gragg)
Set 3 · UNC G 24-24 APP ST · UNC G 72% → 81%
07
Brooke DohertyKill+7.4%
Kill by Brooke Doherty
Set 1 · UNC G 23-23 APP ST · APP ST 55% → 62%
08
APP ST serverService error+7.1%
App State service error
Set 1 · UNC G 24-23 APP ST · UNC G 38% → 45%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNC Greensboroaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Allie SweetOH	3	16	4	40	.300	0	1	0	5	2	0	1	0.5	17.5
44Connore' Siler-NixonMB	3	10	0	15	.667	0	2	3	1	0	0	4	2	14
17Hailey CliftonOH	3	8	4	15	.267	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	10
21Akila HardieMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
3Izora GraggS	3	0	0	0	–	35	2	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Ella BurdL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
18Kendall LanclosOH	3	12	3	27	.333	0	0	0	4	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
10Chloe NussbaumL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	15	0	0	0	0	0
9Mia NicklasDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
1Bloom PrincellS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	11	105	.362	43	5	7	40	6	1	14	8	81

App Statehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Brooke DohertyOH	3	12	8	32	.125	1	1	0	7	1	0	0	0	13
23Delanie GrevengoedOH	3	10	3	26	.269	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	1	12
10Bella HutchensOH	3	9	4	20	.250	0	1	2	3	2	1	2	2	12
8Chelsea GilmoreMB	3	9	0	11	.818	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	10
18Raegan RichardsonS	3	1	0	3	.333	33	2	4	7	0	0	0	0	3
98Lou JohnsonMB	2	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
4MeMe DavisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	17	1	0	0	0	1
24Iris WilliamsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Molly TeagueOH	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Bella DaffornL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
5Caroline FarthingL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Eva GoodsonS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Nevaeh HaysMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Amelia MancinoOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		46	17	108	.269	42	6	9	40	5	2	8	6	70

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 UNC G · APP ST 5

Set 1

30-28

Longest run 4 UNC GAPP ST 5

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 3 UNC GAPP ST 3

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 8 UNC GAPP ST 3

Bars above the line = App State leads, below = UNC Greensboro leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNC Greensboro

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	45%5/11
2	53%8/15	56%10/18
3	73%8/11	38%5/13
4	73%8/11	27%3/11
5	78%7/9	56%9/16
6	64%7/11	30%3/10
All	64%46/72	44%35/79

App State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	56%10/18
2	73%8/11	33%4/12
3	57%8/14	43%6/14
4	44%7/16	27%3/11
5	78%7/9	22%2/9
6	60%6/10	13%1/8
All	56%44/79	36%26/72

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

151 rallies

Rally log

#	UNC G-APP ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Hailey Clifton	blk Bella Hutchens	+2.3
2	1-1	APP ST	UNC G×4	Serve err	APP ST server		+1.7
3	2-1	UNC G	UNC G×4	Kill	Hailey Clifton		+2.5
4	3-1	UNC G	UNC G×4	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed		+2.5
5	4-1	UNC G	UNC G×4	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Ella Burd	+2.5
6	4-2	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.7
7	5-2	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Chloe Nussbaum	+1.9
8	5-3	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.7
9	6-3	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+1.9
10	6-4	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+1.7
11	7-4	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+2.0
12	8-4	UNC G	UNC G	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+2.6
13	8-5	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.6
14	9-5	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Akila Hardie	set Izora Gragg	+1.9
15	9-6	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+1.6
16	10-6	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+1.9
17	11-6	UNC G	UNC G	Attack err	Lou Johnson	blk Akila Hardie	+2.4
18	11-7	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+1.4
19	12-7	APP ST	UNC G×3	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Chloe Nussbaum	+1.8
20	13-7	UNC G	UNC G×3	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed	blk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Hailey Clifton	+2.1
21	14-7	UNC G	UNC G×3	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+1.6
22	14-8	UNC G	APP ST×3	Serve err	UNC G server		+0.8
23	14-9	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Raegan Richardson	set Izora Gragg	+1.5
24	14-10	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.9
25	15-10	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Hailey Clifton	set Izora Gragg	+1.8
26	15-11	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.4
27	16-11	APP ST	UNC G	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+1.8
28	17-11	UNC G	UNC G	Ace	UNC G server	aced Bella Hutchens	+2.0
29	17-12	UNC G	APP ST	Attack err	Kendall Lanclos	blk Chelsea Gilmore, Delanie Grevengoed	+0.9
30	18-12	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+1.4
31	18-13	UNC G	APP ST	Serve err	UNC G server		+0.9
32	18-14	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+1.7
33	19-14	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+1.8
34	19-15	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+1.2
35	20-15	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+1.8
36	20-16	UNC G	APP ST×5	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set MeMe Davis	+1.1
37	20-17	APP ST	APP ST×5	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Ella Burd	+2.2
38	20-18	APP ST	APP ST×5	Attack err	Hailey Clifton		+3.1
39	20-19	APP ST	APP ST×5	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Delanie Grevengoed	+4.1
40	20-20	APP ST	APP ST×5	Attack err	Allie Sweet	blk Lou Johnson, Delanie Grevengoed	+5.0
41	21-20	APP ST	UNC G×3	Serve err	APP ST server		+4.2
42	22-20	UNC G	UNC G×3	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+5.9
43	23-20	UNC G	UNC G×3	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+4.8
44	23-21	UNC G	APP ST×3	Kill	Lou Johnson	set Raegan Richardson	+1.9
45	23-22	APP ST	APP ST×3	Ace	APP ST server	aced Ella Burd	+4.7
46	23-23	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Brooke Doherty		+7.4
47	24-23	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+7.1
48	24-24	UNC G	APP ST	Serve err	UNC G server		+7.1
49	25-24	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+7.1
50	25-25	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+7.1
51	25-26	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+9.3
52	26-26	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+6.6
53	26-27	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+6.6
54	27-27	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+6.6
55	28-27	UNC G	UNC G	Ace	UNC G server	aced Bella Dafforn	+9.8
56	28-28	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+7.1
57	29-28	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+7.1
58	30-28	UNC G	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet		+10.5
Set 2
1	1-0	UNC G	UNC G	Kill	Hailey Clifton	set Izora Gragg	+2.9
2	1-1	UNC G	APP ST	Attack err	Allie Sweet		+2.0
3	2-1	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Akila Hardie	set Izora Gragg	+2.1
4	3-1	UNC G	UNC G	Attack err	Brooke Doherty	blk Connore' Siler-Nixon, Hailey Clifton	+3.0
5	3-2	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+2.0
6	3-3	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+2.9
7	4-3	APP ST	UNC G×3	Kill	Hailey Clifton	set Izora Gragg	+2.2
8	5-3	UNC G	UNC G×3	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon		+3.2
9	6-3	UNC G	UNC G×3	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+3.2
10	6-4	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+2.0
11	7-4	APP ST	UNC G	Attack err	Brooke Doherty	blk Izora Gragg, Connore' Siler-Nixon	+2.3
12	7-5	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+2.1
13	8-5	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+2.4
14	9-5	UNC G	UNC G	Ace	UNC G server	aced Brooke Doherty	+3.2
15	9-6	UNC G	APP ST	Serve err	UNC G server		+1.9
16	10-6	APP ST	UNC G×3	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+2.3
17	11-6	UNC G	UNC G×3	Kill	Hailey Clifton		+2.9
18	12-6	UNC G	UNC G×3	Ace	UNC G server	aced Bella Hutchens	+2.5
19	12-7	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Raegan Richardson	+1.4
20	12-8	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Kendall Lanclos	+2.4
21	13-8	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+2.1
22	14-8	UNC G	UNC G	Attack err	Bella Hutchens	blk Allie Sweet, Akila Hardie	+2.5
23	14-9	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.3
24	15-9	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+1.8
25	16-9	UNC G	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+1.8
26	16-10	UNC G	APP ST×3	Kill	Lou Johnson	set Raegan Richardson	+0.9
27	16-11	APP ST	APP ST×3	Ace	APP ST server	aced Allie Sweet	+1.7
28	16-12	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set MeMe Davis	+2.2
29	17-12	APP ST	UNC G×3	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+2.2
30	18-12	UNC G	UNC G×3	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+2.3
31	19-12	UNC G	UNC G×3	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon		+1.5
32	19-13	UNC G	APP ST	Serve err	UNC G server		+0.6
33	20-13	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Mia Nicklas	+1.0
34	21-13	UNC G	UNC G	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+0.7
35	21-14	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Amelia Mancino	set Eva Goodson	+0.2
36	22-14	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+0.4
37	22-15	UNC G	APP ST	Serve err	UNC G server		+0.1
38	23-15	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.3
39	23-16	UNC G	APP ST×3	Attack err	Kendall Lanclos		+0.1
40	23-17	APP ST	APP ST×3	Attack err	Allie Sweet	blk Lou Johnson	+0.2
41	23-18	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set MeMe Davis	+0.4
42	24-18	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Hailey Clifton	set Izora Gragg	+0.7
43	25-18	UNC G	UNC G	Attack err	Delanie Grevengoed	blk Hailey Clifton, Akila Hardie	+0.2
Set 3
1	0-1	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Team	+2.2
2	1-1	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+1.6
3	2-1	UNC G	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+2.3
4	2-2	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.6
5	3-2	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Hailey Clifton	set Izora Gragg	+1.7
6	3-3	UNC G	APP ST×3	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.7
7	3-4	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Brooke Doherty	+2.3
8	3-5	APP ST	APP ST×3	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+2.2
9	4-5	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+1.6
10	4-6	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.6
11	5-6	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+1.6
12	5-7	UNC G	APP ST	Serve err	UNC G server		+1.7
13	5-8	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Team	+2.2
14	6-8	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Akila Hardie	set Izora Gragg	+1.5
15	6-9	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set Eva Goodson	+1.6
16	6-10	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Kendall Lanclos		+2.0
17	7-10	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+1.2
18	7-11	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Molly Teague	set Eva Goodson	+1.4
19	8-11	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+1.3
20	8-12	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.4
21	9-12	APP ST	UNC G	Attack err	Brooke Doherty	blk Hailey Clifton, Connore' Siler-Nixon	+1.3
22	10-12	UNC G	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+2.2
23	10-13	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Nevaeh Hays	set Raegan Richardson	+1.8
24	11-13	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Chloe Nussbaum	+1.6
25	11-14	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.8
26	11-15	APP ST	APP ST	Ace	APP ST server	aced Allie Sweet	+2.2
27	12-15	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon	set Izora Gragg	+1.3
28	12-16	UNC G	APP ST	Attack err	Allie Sweet		+1.6
29	13-16	APP ST	UNC G	Bad set	Eva Goodson		+1.3
30	13-17	UNC G	APP ST	Attack err	Hailey Clifton	blk Chelsea Gilmore, Bella Hutchens	+1.6
31	14-17	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Hailey Clifton	set Izora Gragg	+1.3
32	14-18	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Bella Hutchens	set MeMe Davis	+1.6
33	14-19	APP ST	APP ST	Attack err	Hailey Clifton	blk Nevaeh Hays, Bella Hutchens	+1.7
34	15-19	APP ST	UNC G	Serve err	APP ST server		+0.8
35	15-20	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
36	16-20	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Chloe Nussbaum	+0.7
37	16-21	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Brooke Doherty	set Raegan Richardson	+1.1
38	16-22	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Delanie Grevengoed	set Raegan Richardson	+0.8
39	17-22	APP ST	UNC G	Kill	Allie Sweet	set Izora Gragg	+0.3
40	18-22	UNC G	UNC G	Kill	Connore' Siler-Nixon		+0.7
41	18-23	UNC G	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.9
42	18-24	APP ST	APP ST	Kill	Chelsea Gilmore	set Raegan Richardson	+0.5
43	19-24	APP ST	UNC G×8	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Chloe Nussbaum	+0.1
44	20-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Attack err	Molly Teague	blk Akila Hardie, Kendall Lanclos	+0.2
45	21-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Attack err	Brooke Doherty		+0.6
46	22-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Attack err	Bella Hutchens		+1.4
47	23-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+3.5
48	24-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Izora Gragg	+8.7
49	25-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Kill	Kendall Lanclos	set Mia Nicklas	+9.3
50	26-24	UNC G	UNC G×8	Ace	UNC G server	aced MeMe Davis	+10.0

Score shown after each rally, UNC Greensboro first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.