Montana vs Northern Ariz.: Northern Ariz. Wins 3-0 (Oct 10)

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ariz. 85.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Ariz. beat visiting Montana 3-0 (25-23, 25-21, 28-26) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Northern Ariz.'s Hanah Stoddard led with 15 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 10

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MONT	23	21	26	0
NAU	25	25	28	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

15 kills in 3 sets for Hanah Stoddard. Northern Ariz. swept Montana.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.0 points. Montana peaked at 22% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave Northern Ariz. 85% before first serve.

No single phase cleared the thresholds (8 pts of break %, .080 of hitting, a 5-point run).

Northern Ariz. above 50Montana belowMax swing 4.0%

MontanaNorthern Ariz.

Hitting: Montana .108·Northern Ariz. .173
Aces: Montana 2·Northern Ariz. 3
Serve err: Montana 6·Northern Ariz. 8
Blocks: Montana 6·Northern Ariz. 110 BS · 12 BA vs 3 BS · 16 BA
Digs: Montana 65·Northern Ariz. 69

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Northern Ariz. above 50 · Montana below

Biggest swing: 4.0% to Montana — set 1, MONT 21-20 NAU. Attack error by Masina Perez. NAU win probability 83% → 79%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MONT 17.1%82.9% NAU

Montana wins

3-0

2.6%

3-1

5.6%

3-2

8.9%

Northern Ariz. wins

3-0

34.6%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

17.4%

MONT break %: 39.3% vs this opp
NAU break %: 46.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Masina PerezAttack error+4.0%
Attack error by Masina Perez
Set 1 · MONT 21-20 NAU · MONT 17% → 21%
02
Avery GottschalkKill+4.0%
Kill by Avery Gottschalk (set by Taryn Davis)
Set 1 · MONT 23-25 NAU · NAU 88% → 92%
03
Avery Gottschalk&Masina PerezBlock+4.0%
Delaney Russell stuffed by Avery Gottschalk & Masina Perez
Set 1 · MONT 21-22 NAU · NAU 82% → 86%
04
Delaney RussellAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Delaney Russell
Set 1 · MONT 21-23 NAU · NAU 86% → 89%
05
MontanaAce+3.2%
Montana ace on Quincey Coyle
Set 1 · MONT 20-20 NAU · MONT 14% → 17%
06
Avery GottschalkKill+3.2%
Kill by Avery Gottschalk (set by Ella Hosfeld)
Set 1 · MONT 22-24 NAU · NAU 87% → 90%
07
Hanah StoddardKill+3.0%
Kill by Hanah Stoddard (set by Ella Hosfeld)
Set 1 · MONT 21-21 NAU · NAU 79% → 82%
08
Elle McCandless&Sophia VellaBlock+2.9%
Quincey Coyle stuffed by Elle McCandless & Sophia Vella
Set 1 · MONT 17-15 NAU · MONT 19% → 22%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Montanaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Alex StoneOH	3	10	7	32	.094	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	11
10Delaney RussellOH	3	9	3	29	.207	1	1	2	13	1	1	0.5	10.5
16Mylee BlakeOH	3	8	3	25	.200	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	9.5
4Josie BlazinaOH	3	8	4	21	.190	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
17Elle McCandlessMB	3	2	4	8	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	4
9Gracie CagleS	3	0	1	4	-.250	21	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
11Sophia VellaMB	3	0	0	13	.000	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	1.5
6Annika WrightS	3	1	0	4	.250	11	0	0	7	0	0	0	1
12Madeline SandersonDS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	1	30	1	0	0	0
20Kaylee PaulsonOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	23	139	.108	34	2	6	65	3	12	6	70

Northern Ariz.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Hanah StoddardOH	3	15	4	52	.212	0	0	3	10	1	0	1	0.5	15.5
3Gigi GreenleeMB	3	7	1	15	.400	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	3.5	10.5
22Quincey CoyleOH	3	9	6	34	.088	0	0	0	13	1	0	2	1	10
14Avery GottschalkMB	3	6	1	16	.313	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
9Masina PerezOH	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	3	0	1	4	3	4
7Ella HosfeldS	3	0	0	2	.000	19	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	0
5Taryn DavisS	3	2	1	5	.200	15	0	1	13	0	0	0	0	2
18Kate FedericoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	2	2	12	0	0	0	0	2
12Laney WilsonOH	2	0	1	3	-.333	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Lauren EdlundOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Lilly HolmesL/DS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		41	17	139	.173	39	3	8	69	2	3	16	11	78

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Montana vs Northern Ariz.

Season series · Northern Ariz. leads 1-0

Sat, Oct 10, 2026Montana at Northern Ariz. · Northern Ariz. won 3-0This match
Thu, Nov 5, 2026Northern Ariz. at MontanaPreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MONT · NAU 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 MONTNAU 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 MONTNAU 4

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 4 MONTNAU 4

Bars above the line = Northern Ariz. leads, below = Montana leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Montana

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	30%3/10
2	62%8/13	33%4/12
3	62%8/13	43%6/14
4	67%6/9	47%7/15
5	40%6/15	33%3/9
6	46%6/13	45%5/11
All	55%42/77	39%28/71

Northern Ariz.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	38%5/13
2	67%8/12	50%8/16
3	53%8/15	38%5/13
4	67%6/9	40%4/10
5	55%6/11	50%6/12
6	60%6/10	54%7/13
All	61%43/71	45%35/77

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

148 rallies

#	MONT-NAU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NAU	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Gracie Cagle	+1.2
2	1-1	MONT	NAU	Serve err	Montana		+1.1
3	2-1	NAU	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+1.2
4	2-2	MONT	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.1
5	2-3	NAU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+1.4
6	3-3	NAU	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+1.2
7	4-3	MONT	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+1.6
8	4-4	MONT	NAU	Kill	Taryn Davis	set Laney Wilson	+1.2
9	5-4	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+1.4
10	5-5	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+1.2
11	5-6	NAU	NAU	Blocked	Josie Blazina	blk Quincey Coyle, Gigi Greenlee	+1.5
12	6-6	NAU	MONT	Attack err	Quincey Coyle		+1.3
13	6-7	MONT	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+1.2
14	7-7	NAU	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Annika Wright	+1.3
15	7-8	MONT	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.2
16	8-8	NAU	MONT	Attack err	Quincey Coyle		+1.4
17	9-8	MONT	MONT	Blocked	Masina Perez	blk Delaney Russell, Elle McCandless	+1.9
18	9-9	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.4
19	9-10	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Elle McCandless		+1.7
20	10-10	NAU	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+1.5
21	10-11	MONT	NAU	Serve err	Montana		+1.4
22	11-11	NAU	MONT×3	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+1.5
23	12-11	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Taryn Davis		+2.2
24	13-11	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Laney Wilson		+2.4
25	13-12	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+1.7
26	13-13	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Josie Blazina		+2.2
27	14-13	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+1.9
28	14-14	MONT	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Taryn Davis	+1.8
29	14-15	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Josie Blazina		+2.2
30	15-15	NAU	MONT×3	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Annika Wright	+1.8
31	16-15	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Annika Wright	+2.7
32	17-15	MONT	MONT×3	Blocked	Quincey Coyle	blk Elle McCandless, Sophia Vella	+2.9
33	17-16	MONT	NAU×4	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Taryn Davis	+2.0
34	17-17	NAU	NAU×4	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Ella Hosfeld	+2.7
35	17-18	NAU	NAU×4	Blocked	Alex Stone	blk Gigi Greenlee	+2.6
36	17-19	NAU	NAU×4	Blocked	Gracie Cagle	blk Quincey Coyle, Gigi Greenlee	+2.4
37	18-19	NAU	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Annika Wright	+1.8
38	18-20	MONT	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Ella Hosfeld	+2.0
39	19-20	NAU	MONT×3	Kill	Alex Stone	set Gracie Cagle	+1.9
40	20-20	MONT	MONT×3	Ace	Montana	aced Quincey Coyle	+3.2
41	21-20	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Masina Perez		+4.0
42	21-21	MONT	NAU×3	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+3.0
43	21-22	NAU	NAU×3	Blocked	Delaney Russell	blk Avery Gottschalk, Masina Perez	+4.0
44	21-23	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Delaney Russell		+3.5
45	22-23	NAU	MONT	Kill	Elle McCandless	set Gracie Cagle	+2.1
46	22-24	MONT	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Ella Hosfeld	+3.2
47	23-24	NAU	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+1.9
48	23-25	MONT	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Taryn Davis	+4.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MONT	NAU	Serve err	Montana		+0.7
2	1-1	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+0.8
3	1-2	MONT	NAU	Serve err	Montana		+0.7
4	1-3	NAU	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Kate Federico	+0.9
5	2-3	NAU	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Delaney Russell	+0.7
6	2-4	MONT	NAU	Blocked	Mylee Blake	blk Hanah Stoddard, Avery Gottschalk	+0.7
7	3-4	NAU	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+0.7
8	3-5	MONT	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Kate Federico	+0.7
9	4-5	NAU	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Annika Wright	+0.8
10	5-5	MONT	MONT	Bad set	Laney Wilson		+1.1
11	5-6	MONT	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Kate Federico	+0.8
12	5-7	NAU	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.0
13	6-7	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+0.8
14	7-7	MONT	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.2
15	7-8	MONT	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.9
16	8-8	NAU	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Annika Wright	+1.0
17	8-9	MONT	NAU×3	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.9
18	8-10	NAU	NAU×3	Blocked	Elle McCandless	blk Avery Gottschalk	+1.1
19	8-11	NAU	NAU×3	Ace	Northern Ariz.	aced Delaney Russell	+1.0
20	9-11	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+0.7
21	9-12	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.8
22	10-12	NAU	MONT×3	Kill	Alex Stone	set Kate Federico	+0.8
23	11-12	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Madeline Sanderson	+1.2
24	12-12	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+1.4
25	12-13	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+1.1
26	12-14	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Delaney Russell		+1.3
27	13-14	NAU	MONT×3	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+1.0
28	14-14	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Quincey Coyle		+1.6
29	15-14	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Annika Wright	+1.8
30	15-15	MONT	NAU	Kill	Taryn Davis	set Kaylee Paulson	+1.3
31	16-15	NAU	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Annika Wright	+1.6
32	17-15	MONT	MONT	Ace	Montana	aced Hanah Stoddard	+2.1
33	17-16	MONT	NAU×3	Serve err	Montana		+1.4
34	17-17	NAU	NAU×3	Blocked	Alex Stone	blk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez	+1.9
35	17-18	NAU	NAU×3	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.9
36	18-18	NAU	MONT	Bad set	Kate Federico		+1.6
37	19-18	MONT	MONT	Attack err	Gigi Greenlee		+2.4
38	19-19	MONT	NAU×4	Attack err	Quincey Coyle		+1.8
39	19-20	NAU	NAU×4	Attack err	Elle McCandless		+2.3
40	19-21	NAU	NAU×4	Attack err	Alex Stone		+2.0
41	19-22	NAU	NAU×4	Blocked	Alex Stone	blk Masina Perez	+1.5
42	20-22	NAU	MONT	Attack err	Hanah Stoddard		+0.9
43	21-22	MONT	MONT	Blocked	Hanah Stoddard	blk Sophia Vella, Mylee Blake	+1.9
44	21-23	MONT	NAU×3	Blocked	Alex Stone	blk Masina Perez, Gigi Greenlee	+2.0
45	21-24	NAU	NAU×3	Ace	Northern Ariz.	aced Alex Stone	+1.6
46	21-25	NAU	NAU×3	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Kate Federico	+0.6
Set 3
1	1-0	NAU	MONT	Bad set	Masina Perez		+0.4
2	1-1	MONT	NAU	Bad set	Alex Stone		+0.4
3	1-2	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Mylee Blake		+0.5
4	2-2	NAU	MONT×4	Bad set	Avery Gottschalk		+0.4
5	3-2	MONT	MONT×4	Blocked	Hanah Stoddard	blk Mylee Blake, Josie Blazina	+0.6
6	4-2	MONT	MONT×4	Attack err	Avery Gottschalk		+0.6
7	5-2	MONT	MONT×4	Kill	Alex Stone	set Gracie Cagle	+0.6
8	5-3	MONT	NAU×3	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.5
9	5-4	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Josie Blazina		+0.6
10	5-5	NAU	NAU×3	Kill	Lauren Edlund	set Taryn Davis	+0.6
11	6-5	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+0.5
12	7-5	MONT	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Annika Wright	+0.7
13	7-6	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Kate Federico	+0.5
14	8-6	NAU	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Madeline Sanderson	+0.6
15	9-6	MONT	MONT	Attack err	Lauren Edlund		+0.7
16	9-7	MONT	NAU	Bad set	Delaney Russell		+0.5
17	9-8	NAU	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+0.7
18	10-8	NAU	MONT	Kill	Annika Wright		+0.6
19	11-8	MONT	MONT	Blocked	Quincey Coyle	blk Elle McCandless, Sophia Vella	+0.8
20	11-9	MONT	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+0.5
21	11-10	NAU	NAU	Kill	Masina Perez	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.7
22	12-10	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+0.6
23	12-11	MONT	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.6
24	13-11	NAU	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+0.7
25	13-12	MONT	NAU	Serve err	Montana		+0.6
26	14-12	NAU	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+0.7
27	14-13	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.6
28	14-14	NAU	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Taryn Davis	+0.8
29	15-14	NAU	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+0.7
30	16-14	MONT	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Annika Wright	+1.0
31	16-15	MONT	NAU	Attack err	Hanah Stoddard		+0.7
32	17-15	NAU	MONT	Serve err	Northern Ariz.		+0.8
33	17-16	MONT	NAU×4	Blocked	Delaney Russell	blk Avery Gottschalk, Lauren Edlund	+0.7
34	17-17	NAU	NAU×4	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+0.9
35	17-18	NAU	NAU×4	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Taryn Davis	+0.9
36	17-19	NAU	NAU×4	Ace	Northern Ariz.	aced Madeline Sanderson	+0.8
37	18-19	NAU	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+0.6
38	18-20	MONT	NAU	Serve err	Montana		+0.7
39	19-20	NAU	MONT×3	Kill	Elle McCandless	set Annika Wright	+0.7
40	20-20	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Quincey Coyle		+1.1
41	21-20	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+1.4
42	21-21	MONT	NAU×3	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.0
43	21-22	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Elle McCandless		+1.4
44	21-23	NAU	NAU×3	Blocked	Mylee Blake	blk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez	+1.2
45	22-23	NAU	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+0.7
46	23-23	MONT	MONT	Blocked	Hanah Stoddard	blk Mylee Blake, Elle McCandless	+1.6
47	23-24	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+1.7
48	24-24	NAU	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Gracie Cagle	+1.7
49	25-24	MONT	MONT	Bad set	Hanah Stoddard		+2.5
50	25-25	MONT	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+2.0
51	26-25	NAU	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+2.0
52	26-26	MONT	NAU×3	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+2.0
53	26-27	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Alex Stone		+2.2
54	26-28	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Alex Stone		+1.8

Score shown after each rally, Montana first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Northern Ariz. def. Montana 3–0

15 kills in 3 sets for Hanah Stoddard. Northern Ariz. swept Montana.