Final · 4 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Northern Ariz. def. Montana 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ariz. 71.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Ariz. won at Montana 3-1 (23-25, 25-17, 25-15, 25-19) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Hanah Stoddard led Northern Ariz. with 15 kills; Montana's Alex Stone had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set1234Sets
NAU232525253
MONT251715191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

25 digs from Kate Federico kept Northern Ariz. alive against Montana.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Northern Ariz.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Northern Ariz. 72% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Northern Ariz. 22–22 Montana

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Montana, enough to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0.

    Northern Ariz. 68% → 50%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Northern Ariz. 5–9 Montana

    Northern Ariz. scored 5 straight to turn a 5–9 deficit into a 10–9 lead. The match swung to Northern Ariz.

    Northern Ariz. 37% → 53%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Northern Ariz. 18–19 Montana

    Down 18–19, Northern Ariz. scored 7 straight to lead 25–19.

    Northern Ariz. 78% → >99%

Montana above 50Northern Ariz. belowMax swing 10.2%

Northern Ariz.Montana

Sideout %
Northern Ariz. 59.7·Montana 46.4
Break %
Northern Ariz. 53.6·Montana 40.3
Hitting
Northern Ariz. .255·Montana .114
Longest run
Northern Ariz. 7·Montana 4

Hanah Stoddard
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 15 K, .200, 16.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Montana above 50 · Northern Ariz. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.2% MONTrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.2% to Montana — set 1, NAU 23-25 MONT. Hanah Stoddard stuffed by Josie Blazina & Gracie Cagle. MONT win probability 39% → 50%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NAU 77.4%22.6% MONT

Northern Ariz. wins

3-0
29.1%
3-1
29.4%
3-2
18.9%

Montana wins

3-0
3.8%
3-1
7.6%
3-2
11.1%
NAU break %
46.0% vs this opp
MONT break %
40.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Hanah Stoddard stuffed by Josie Blazina & Gracie Cagle

    Set 1 · NAU 23-25 MONT · MONT 39% → 50%

  2. 02
    Hanah StoddardAttack error+9.2%

    Attack error by Hanah Stoddard

    Set 1 · NAU 23-24 MONT · MONT 30% → 39%

  3. 03
    Gracie CagleAttack error+6.7%

    Attack error by Gracie Cagle

    Set 1 · NAU 23-22 MONT · NAU 68% → 75%

  4. 04
    Josie BlazinaAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Josie Blazina

    Set 4 · NAU 20-19 MONT · NAU 82% → 87%

  5. 05

    Ace by Kate Federico on Isabel Taylor

    Set 4 · NAU 21-19 MONT · NAU 87% → 92%

  6. 06
    Gracie CagleKill+4.9%

    Kill by Gracie Cagle (set by Delaney Russell)

    Set 1 · NAU 23-23 MONT · MONT 25% → 30%

  7. 07
    Gigi GreenleeKill+4.8%

    Kill by Gigi Greenlee (set by Taryn Davis)

    Set 4 · NAU 18-18 MONT · NAU 77% → 82%

  8. 08
    Alex StoneKill+4.7%

    Kill by Alex Stone (set by Gracie Cagle)

    Set 1 · NAU 21-22 MONT · MONT 32% → 36%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415455.200002121111.516.5
412540.175022181132.516.5
48219.31610000174.512.5
49116.5000000004211
44111.273100100215
4000–1800900000
4307.42900010052.55.5
4001.0005202510002
4000–000500000
3000–1830600003
2000–601700000
Team totals5113149.25549758463221498
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418737.2970003000018
49430.1671011600009
46326.11500000031.57.5
44414.000230300007
44216.1252901180010.54.5
43629-.103000520214
46317.176000320006
41011.000611900002
4000–8202300002
3026-.333000010000
Team totals5131176.114466380706376

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Northern Ariz. vs Montana

Season series · Northern Ariz. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 NAU · MONT 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 NAUMONT 4

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 5 NAUMONT 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 7 NAUMONT 3

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 7 NAUMONT 3

Bars above the line = Montana leads, below = Northern Ariz. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Ariz.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%7/11
29%2/7
2
70%7/10
30%3/10
3
44%7/16
63%12/19
4
78%7/9
36%4/11
5
67%4/6
74%14/19
6
50%4/8
33%2/6
All
60%36/60
51%37/72

Montana

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
45%5/11
2
44%7/16
30%3/10
3
58%7/12
46%6/13
4
35%6/17
42%5/12
5
33%4/12
38%3/8
6
80%4/5
33%2/6
All
49%35/72
40%24/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#NAU-MONTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Madeline Sanderson+2.2
20-2MONTMONT×3KillDelaney Russellset Madeline Sanderson+2.3
30-3MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Madeline Sanderson+2.3
41-3MONTNAUAttack errDelaney Russell+1.6
51-4NAUMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+1.8
62-4MONTNAU×3KillQuincey Coyleset Gigi Greenlee+1.6
73-4NAUNAU×3Bad setGracie Cagle+2.3
84-4NAUNAU×3Bad setGracie Cagle+2.3
94-5NAUMONT×4KillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+1.8
104-6MONTMONT×4AceMontanaaced Kate Federico+2.5
114-7MONTMONT×4KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+2.6
124-8MONTMONT×4KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+2.5
135-8MONTNAUAttack errAlex Stone+1.6
145-9NAUMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+2.0
156-9MONTNAUServe errAnnika Wright+1.6
166-10NAUMONTKillMylee Blakeset Annika Wright+2.0
177-10MONTNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Mallory Reynolds+1.7
187-11NAUMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+2.0
197-12MONTMONTAttack errMasina Perez+2.5
208-12MONTNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+1.5
218-13NAUMONTAttack errQuincey Coyle+1.9
229-13MONTNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Masina Perez+1.5
2310-13NAUNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Ella Hosfeld+2.3
2410-14NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Sydney Pierce+2.2
2511-14MONTNAUServe errDelaney Russell+1.7
2611-15NAUMONTKillGracie Cagleset Madeline Sanderson+2.2
2712-15MONTNAUBlockedJosie Blazinablk Gigi Greenlee+1.8
2812-16NAUMONTKillMylee Blakeset Madeline Sanderson+2.3
2913-16MONTNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Mallory Reynolds+1.8
3014-16NAUNAUAttack errMylee Blake+2.9
3114-17NAUMONTBlockedQuincey Coyleblk Mylee Blake, Josie Blazina+2.7
3215-17MONTNAUKillLauren Edlundset Mallory Reynolds+2.2
3316-17NAUNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+3.4
3416-18NAUMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Annika Wright+3.1
3517-18MONTNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+2.6
3618-18NAUNAUKillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+4.0
3718-19NAUMONTKillGracie Cagleset Annika Wright+3.4
3819-19MONTNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+3.2
3919-20NAUMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+3.7
4020-20MONTNAUBlockedAlex Stoneblk Gigi Greenlee, Quincey Coyle+3.5
4120-21NAUMONTServe errMallory Reynolds+4.1
4221-21MONTNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Mallory Reynolds+3.8
4321-22NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+4.7
4422-22MONTNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Mallory Reynolds+4.4
4523-22NAUNAUAttack errGracie Cagle+6.7
4623-23NAUMONT×3KillGracie Cagleset Delaney Russell+4.9
4723-24MONTMONT×3Attack errHanah Stoddard+9.2
4823-25MONTMONT×3BlockedHanah Stoddardblk Josie Blazina, Gracie Cagle+10.2
Set 2
10-1NAUMONT×3Serve errHanah Stoddard+2.2
20-2MONT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.0
30-3MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Madeline Sanderson+3.1
41-3MONTNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+2.1
51-4NAUMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+2.4
61-5MONTMONT×3Attack errHanah Stoddard+3.1
71-6MONTMONT×3Attack errQuincey Coyle+2.9
82-6MONTNAUBad setGracie Cagle+1.9
92-7NAUMONTKillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+2.3
102-8MONTMONTBlockedGigi Greenleeblk Mylee Blake, Josie Blazina+2.7
113-8MONTNAU×3KillQuincey Coyleset Kate Federico+1.6
124-8NAUNAU×3AceQuincey Coyleaced Mylee Blake+2.5
135-8NAUNAU×3Bad setGracie Cagle+2.8
145-9NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+2.5
156-9MONTNAU×5KillHanah Stoddardset Mallory Reynolds+2.1
167-9NAUNAU×5BlockedGracie Cagleblk Hanah Stoddard+3.2
178-9NAUNAU×5Attack errMylee Blake+3.4
189-9NAUNAU×5BlockedJosie Blazinablk Avery Gottschalk, Hanah Stoddard+3.4
1910-9NAUNAU×5BlockedMylee Blakeblk Lauren Edlund, Avery Gottschalk+3.4
2010-10NAUMONTKillMylee Blakeset Annika Wright+2.6
2111-10MONTNAU×5BlockedDelaney Russellblk Lauren Edlund, Avery Gottschalk+2.6
2212-10NAUNAU×5KillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+3.3
2313-10NAUNAU×5KillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+3.0
2414-10NAUNAU×5Attack errDelaney Russell+2.5
2515-10NAUNAU×5KillQuincey Coyleset Kate Federico+2.0
2615-11NAUMONTAttack errHanah Stoddard+1.2
2716-11MONTNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+1.5
2817-11NAUNAUAttack errKaylee Paulson+1.4
2917-12NAUMONTAttack errQuincey Coyle+0.8
3017-13MONTMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+1.5
3118-13MONTNAUServe errGracie Cagle+1.5
3218-14NAUMONTKillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+1.1
3319-14MONTNAU×3Attack errAlex Stone+1.5
3420-14NAUNAU×3Attack errSydney Pierce+1.3
3521-14NAUNAU×3AceTaryn Davisaced Mylee Blake+0.7
3621-15NAUMONTKillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+0.3
3722-15MONTNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+0.4
3822-16NAUMONTAttack errGigi Greenlee+0.2
3922-17MONTMONTAceMontana+0.5
4023-17MONTNAU×3KillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+0.6
4124-17NAUNAU×3KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+0.3
4225-17NAUNAU×3BlockedMylee Blakeblk Avery Gottschalk, Lauren Edlund·
Set 3
11-0MONTNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Madeline Sanderson+2.1
21-1NAUMONTKillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+2.2
32-1MONTNAU×6KillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+2.2
43-1NAUNAU×6KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+2.8
54-1NAUNAU×6BlockedMylee Blakeblk Gigi Greenlee, Lauren Edlund+2.6
65-1NAUNAU×6AceTaryn Davisaced Kaylee Paulson+2.3
76-1NAUNAU×6AceTaryn Davis+2.0
87-1NAUNAU×6KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+1.6
97-2NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+1.1
108-2MONTNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+1.2
118-3NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+1.1
128-4MONTMONTKillJosie Blazina+1.8
139-4MONTNAU×7KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+1.5
1410-4NAUNAU×7AceKate Federico+1.6
1511-4NAUNAU×7KillAvery Gottschalk+1.3
1612-4NAUNAU×7Bad setAnnika Wright+0.9
1713-4NAUNAU×7KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+0.6
1814-4NAUNAU×7Attack errKaylee Paulson+0.4
1915-4NAUNAU×7KillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+0.2
2015-5NAUMONTKillIsabel Taylorset Gracie Cagle+0.1
2116-5MONTNAUKillLauren Edlundset Taryn Davis+0.2
2217-5NAUNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
2317-6NAUMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright·
2417-7MONTMONTAttack errAvery Gottschalk+0.1
2518-7MONTNAUKillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
2618-8NAUMONTKillAnnika Wrightset Gracie Cagle+0.1
2719-8MONTNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
2820-8NAUNAUBlockedAlex Stoneblk Masina Perez, Gigi Greenlee+0.1
2920-9NAUMONT×3KillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle·
3020-10MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle·
3120-11MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Madeline Sanderson+0.1
3221-11MONTNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Ella Hosfeld+0.1
3322-11NAUNAUAttack errDelaney Russell·
3422-12NAUMONT×3Attack errQuincey Coyle·
3522-13MONTMONT×3KillGracie Cagle·
3622-14MONTMONT×3AceMontana+0.1
3723-14MONTNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+0.1
3824-14NAUNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis·
3924-15NAUMONTServe errQuincey Coyle·
4025-15MONTNAUKillLauren Edlundset Taryn Davis·
Set 4
10-1NAUMONTServe errHanah Stoddard+2.0
20-2MONTMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+2.7
31-2MONTNAUAttack errSydney Pierce+1.9
41-3NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+2.1
51-4MONTMONTKillIsabel Taylor+2.9
62-4MONTNAU×5BlockedIsabel Taylorblk Gigi Greenlee, Masina Perez+1.9
73-4NAUNAU×5KillQuincey Coyleset Kate Federico+2.7
84-4NAUNAU×5BlockedAlex Stoneblk Quincey Coyle, Gigi Greenlee+2.7
95-4NAUNAU×5Attack errAlex Stone+2.7
106-4NAUNAU×5Attack errSydney Pierce+2.5
116-5NAUMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+1.9
126-6MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stone+2.8
136-7MONTMONT×3AceMontana+3.0
147-7MONTNAUKillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+2.2
157-8NAUMONTServe errQuincey Coyle+2.4
167-9MONTMONTKillIsabel Taylorset Annika Wright+3.3
178-9MONTNAUBlockedIsabel Taylorblk Gigi Greenlee, Lauren Edlund+2.3
188-10NAUMONTKillIsabel Taylorset Gracie Cagle+2.6
199-10MONTNAUKillHanah Stoddardset Kate Federico+2.4
209-11NAUMONT×3KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+2.7
219-12MONTMONT×3AceMontanaaced Hanah Stoddard+3.5
229-13MONTMONT×3AceMontanaaced Quincey Coyle+3.3
2310-13MONTNAUKillAvery Gottschalkset Ella Hosfeld+2.1
2411-13NAUNAUBlockedSydney Pierceblk Quincey Coyle+3.2
2511-14NAUMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+2.9
2612-14MONTNAUKillQuincey Coyleset Ella Hosfeld+2.4
2713-14NAUNAUKillMasina Perezset Ella Hosfeld+3.6
2813-15NAUMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+3.1
2914-15MONTNAUBlockedAlex Stoneblk Gigi Greenlee, Quincey Coyle+2.8
3014-16NAUMONT×3KillIsabel Taylorset Gracie Cagle+3.3
3114-17MONTMONT×3Bad setGigi Greenlee+4.2
3214-18MONTMONT×3KillAlex Stoneset Sydney Pierce+3.8
3315-18MONTNAU×4KillQuincey Coyleset Taryn Davis+2.1
3416-18NAUNAU×4AceQuincey Coyleaced Isabel Taylor+3.6
3517-18NAUNAU×4KillHanah Stoddardset Taryn Davis+4.3
3618-18NAUNAU×4KillGigi Greenleeset Taryn Davis+4.8
3718-19NAUMONTKillIsabel Taylorset Gracie Cagle+4.0
3819-19MONTNAU×7KillHanah Stoddardset Kate Federico+3.8
3920-19NAUNAU×7Attack errJosie Blazina+5.4
4021-19NAUNAU×7AceKate Federicoaced Isabel Taylor+5.0
4122-19NAUNAU×7Bad setDelaney Russell+3.9
4223-19NAUNAU×7Attack errIsabel Taylor+2.5
4324-19NAUNAU×7KillAvery Gottschalkset Taryn Davis+1.1
4425-19NAUNAU×7Attack errMylee Blake+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ariz. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).