FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeAMERICAN

Fla. Atlantic def. Merrimack 3–0

(25-17, 25-17, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MERMCK	17	17	20	0
FAU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FAU above 50 · MERMCK below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Merrimack — set 1, MERMCK 10-6 FAU. Attack error by Sequoia Layne. FAU win probability 100% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MERMCK 0.1%99.9% FAU

Merrimack wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.1%

Fla. Atlantic wins

3-0

89.3%

3-1

9.9%

3-2

0.7%

MERMCK break %: 33.3% vs this opp
FAU break %: 57.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sequoia LayneAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Sequoia Layne
Set 1 · MERMCK 10-6 FAU · MERMCK 0% → 0%
02
Sequoia LayneAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Sequoia Layne
Set 1 · MERMCK 8-5 FAU · MERMCK 0% → 0%
03
Tamilore AfolaluAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Tamilore Afolalu
Set 1 · MERMCK 10-8 FAU · FAU 100% → 100%
04
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.0%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 1 · MERMCK 9-6 FAU · MERMCK 0% → 0%
05
Tamilore AfolaluAttack error+0.0%
Tamilore Afolalu stuffed by Libby Ashline & Sequoia Layne
Set 1 · MERMCK 10-7 FAU · FAU 100% → 100%
06
Avry BryantAttack error+0.0%
Avry Bryant stuffed by Olivia Hart & Libby Ashline
Set 1 · MERMCK 10-9 FAU · FAU 100% → 100%
07
Tamilore AfolaluKill+0.0%
Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Devon Lowe)
Set 2 · MERMCK 16-15 FAU · MERMCK 0% → 0%
08
Olivia HartAttack error+0.0%
Attack error by Olivia Hart
Set 1 · MERMCK 7-5 FAU · MERMCK 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Merrimackaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	3	8	2	21	.286	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	1	9
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	3	7	1	18	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
7Tamilore Afolalu	3	6	7	24	-.042	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
1Naomi VajdaMB	3	1	0	2	.500	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
13Mia IzzoMB	3	2	3	12	-.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Sophia DeBonisS	3	1	0	3	.333	13	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	11	0	0	0	0	1
15Gabrielle Moore	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
14Maiella Blandin	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Avry BryantOPP	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
19Elizabeth KenneyS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
18Sienna Franks	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Devon Lowe	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	15	90	.133	26	1	6	35	5	2	8	6	54

Fla. Atlantichome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Olivia HartOH	3	8	2	18	.333	1	0	2	6	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
25Libby AshlineMB	3	6	0	9	.667	0	1	1	2	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
7Maya Van HeystS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
2Luye Marquez-MorenoOH	2	5	2	17	.176	1	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	6
30Sequoia LayneOH	2	4	4	12	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
23Brooke CrummelMB	2	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Anna HartmanOH	3	12	0	20	.600	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12
3Emsley VenardS	3	0	0	1	.000	24	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
1Ava NorrisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
11Zoe WinfordL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
24Maggie AllredMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kierstin BevelleOH	1	3	3	9	.000	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3
21Natalie DepaulaOH	1	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
4Sara GamboaOH	1	2	3	8	-.125	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Bre MorganMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		45	17	110	.255	42	5	8	38	1	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MERMCK · FAU 9

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 6 MERMCKFAU 9

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 MERMCKFAU 6

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 MERMCKFAU 5

Bars above the line = Fla. Atlantic leads, below = Merrimack leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	29%2/7
2	60%6/10	40%4/10
3	46%6/13	67%12/18
4	38%5/13	25%2/8
5	45%5/11	29%2/7
6	24%4/17	0%0/5
All	43%32/74	40%22/55

Fla. Atlantic

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	64%9/14
2	38%6/16	50%6/12
3	55%6/11	54%7/13
4	83%5/6	62%8/13
5	83%5/6	29%2/7
6	83%5/6	67%10/15
All	60%33/55	57%42/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	MERMCK-FAU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
2	2-0	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sequoia Layne	blk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.0
3	2-1	MERMCK	FAU×5	Attack err	Mia Izzo		+0.0
4	2-2	FAU	FAU×5	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
5	2-3	FAU	FAU×5	Ace	FAU server	aced Team	+0.0
6	2-4	FAU	FAU×5	Kill	Sequoia Layne	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
7	2-5	FAU	FAU×5	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
8	3-5	FAU	MERMCK×6	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
9	4-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
10	5-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Brooke Crummel	blk Naomi Vajda	+0.0
11	6-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Olivia Hart		+0.0
12	7-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Olivia Hart		+0.0
13	8-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Sequoia Layne		+0.1
14	8-6	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Sequoia Layne	set Zoe Winford	+0.0
15	9-6	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
16	10-6	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sequoia Layne		+0.1
17	10-7	MERMCK	FAU×9	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Libby Ashline, Sequoia Layne	+0.0
18	10-8	FAU	FAU×9	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.1
19	10-9	FAU	FAU×9	Attack err	Avry Bryant	blk Olivia Hart, Libby Ashline	+0.0
20	10-10	FAU	FAU×9	Ace	FAU server	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
21	10-11	FAU	FAU×9	Bad set	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.0
22	10-12	FAU	FAU×9	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
23	10-13	FAU	FAU×9	Kill	Libby Ashline	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
24	10-14	FAU	FAU×9	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
25	10-15	FAU	FAU×9	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Libby Ashline, Olivia Hart	+0.0
26	11-15	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
27	11-16	MERMCK	FAU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
28	11-17	FAU	FAU	Kill	Libby Ashline	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
29	12-17	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
30	12-18	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Libby Ashline	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
31	12-19	FAU	FAU	Kill	Anna Hartman		+0.0
32	13-19	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
33	13-20	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
34	13-21	FAU	FAU	Ace	FAU server	aced Maddy Fennessy	+0.0
35	14-21	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
36	14-22	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Luye Marquez-Moreno	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
37	15-22	FAU	MERMCK	Attack err	Brooke Crummel		+0.0
38	16-22	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
39	16-23	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Zoe Winford	+0.0
40	16-24	FAU	FAU	Kill	Libby Ashline	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
41	17-24	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
42	17-25	MERMCK	FAU	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Sequoia Layne, Libby Ashline	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
2	1-1	MERMCK	FAU×3	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
3	1-2	FAU	FAU×3	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
4	1-3	FAU	FAU×3	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Zoe Winford	+0.0
5	2-3	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
6	3-3	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
7	3-4	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Luye Marquez-Moreno	set Olivia Hart	+0.0
8	4-4	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
9	5-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Luye Marquez-Moreno	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Naomi Vajda	+0.0
10	5-5	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
11	6-5	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
12	6-6	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Luye Marquez-Moreno	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
13	7-6	FAU	MERMCK	Bad set	Olivia Hart		+0.0
14	8-6	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
15	8-7	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Brooke Crummel	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
16	8-8	FAU	FAU	Kill	Sequoia Layne	set Luye Marquez-Moreno	+0.0
17	9-8	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
18	9-9	MERMCK	FAU×3	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
19	9-10	FAU	FAU×3	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
20	9-11	FAU	FAU×3	Bad set	Mia Izzo		+0.0
21	10-11	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
22	10-12	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
23	11-12	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
24	11-13	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Luye Marquez-Moreno	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
25	12-13	FAU	MERMCK×3	Kill	Sophia DeBonis	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
26	13-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Maggie Allred		+0.0
27	14-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Luye Marquez-Moreno	blk Naomi Vajda, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.0
28	14-14	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
29	15-14	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
30	15-15	MERMCK	FAU	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
31	16-15	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
32	16-16	MERMCK	FAU×4	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
33	16-17	FAU	FAU×4	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
34	16-18	FAU	FAU×4	Attack err	Maiella Blandin	blk Olivia Hart, Libby Ashline	+0.0
35	16-19	FAU	FAU×4	Kill	Sequoia Layne	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
36	17-19	FAU	MERMCK	Attack err	Sequoia Layne	blk Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
37	17-20	MERMCK	FAU×6	Kill	Libby Ashline	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
38	17-21	FAU	FAU×6	Attack err	Mia Izzo		+0.0
39	17-22	FAU	FAU×6	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
40	17-23	FAU	FAU×6	Kill	Luye Marquez-Moreno	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
41	17-24	FAU	FAU×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
42	17-25	FAU	FAU×6	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	FAU	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
2	2-0	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
3	3-0	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Kierstin Bevelle		+0.0
4	3-1	MERMCK	FAU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
5	4-1	FAU	MERMCK×4	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
6	5-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Kierstin Bevelle	+0.0
7	6-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Kierstin Bevelle		+0.0
8	7-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
9	7-2	MERMCK	FAU×4	Kill	Natalie Depaula	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
10	7-3	FAU	FAU×4	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Olivia Hart	+0.0
11	7-4	FAU	FAU×4	Kill	Natalie Depaula	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
12	7-5	FAU	FAU×4	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
13	8-5	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
14	8-6	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
15	9-6	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
16	9-7	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Libby Ashline	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
17	9-8	FAU	FAU	Kill	Kierstin Bevelle	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
18	10-8	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
19	10-9	MERMCK	FAU×5	Kill	Kierstin Bevelle	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
20	10-10	FAU	FAU×5	Attack err	Mia Izzo		+0.0
21	10-11	FAU	FAU×5	Kill	Olivia Hart	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
22	10-12	FAU	FAU×5	Ace	FAU server	aced Gabrielle Moore	+0.0
23	10-13	FAU	FAU×5	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
24	11-13	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Avry Bryant	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
25	11-14	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
26	11-15	FAU	FAU	Ace	FAU server	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
27	12-15	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
28	12-16	MERMCK	FAU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
29	13-16	FAU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
30	13-17	MERMCK	FAU×4	Kill	Natalie Depaula	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
31	13-18	FAU	FAU×4	Kill	Kierstin Bevelle	set Maya Van Heyst	+0.0
32	13-19	FAU	FAU×4	Kill	Sara Gamboa	set Kierstin Bevelle	+0.0
33	13-20	FAU	FAU×4	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.0
34	14-20	FAU	MERMCK	Attack err	Sara Gamboa		+0.0
35	15-20	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sara Gamboa	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+0.0
36	15-21	MERMCK	FAU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
37	16-21	FAU	MERMCK	Attack err	Kierstin Bevelle		+0.0
38	17-21	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Sara Gamboa		+0.0
39	17-22	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Sara Gamboa	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
40	18-22	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
41	18-23	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Bre Morgan	set Emsley Venard	+0.0
42	18-24	FAU	FAU	Bad set	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.0
43	19-24	FAU	MERMCK	Serve err	FAU server		+0.0
44	20-24	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
45	20-25	MERMCK	FAU	Kill	Anna Hartman	set Emsley Venard	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Merrimack first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.