FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomePATRIOT

Loyola Maryland def. Saint Peter's 3–0

(25-13, 27-25, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ST PTR	13	25	18	0
LOY MD	25	27	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

LOY MD above 50 · ST PTR below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Saint Peter's — set 2, ST PTR 24-23 LOY MD. Kill by Addison Baglio (set by Zumra Yavuz). LOY MD win probability 93% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ST PTR 10.5%89.5% LOY MD

Saint Peter's wins

3-0

1.4%

3-1

3.2%

3-2

5.9%

Loyola Maryland wins

3-0

43.6%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.3%

ST PTR break %: 38.7% vs this opp
LOY MD break %: 48.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Addison BaglioKill+4.2%
Kill by Addison Baglio (set by Zumra Yavuz)
Set 2 · ST PTR 24-23 LOY MD · ST PTR 7% → 11%
02
Addie LoweKill+3.5%
Kill by Addie Lowe (set by Gabi Verdicchio)
Set 2 · ST PTR 25-26 LOY MD · LOY MD 92% → 95%
03
Ava NepkinKill+3.3%
Kill by Ava Nepkin (set by Madison Monahan)
Set 2 · ST PTR 24-24 LOY MD · LOY MD 89% → 92%
04
Ava NepkinAttack error+3.3%
Ava Nepkin stuffed by Addison Baglio & Julia Whaley
Set 2 · ST PTR 25-24 LOY MD · ST PTR 8% → 11%
05
Ava NepkinKill+3.3%
Kill by Ava Nepkin (set by Gabi Verdicchio)
Set 2 · ST PTR 25-25 LOY MD · LOY MD 89% → 92%
06
Valeria Pagan MunozAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Valeria Pagan Munoz
Set 2 · ST PTR 25-27 LOY MD · LOY MD 95% → 98%
07
LOY MD serverAce+2.7%
Loyola Maryland ace on Team
Set 2 · ST PTR 22-23 LOY MD · LOY MD 92% → 95%
08
Karolina T. Rodriguez MendezKill+2.1%
Kill by Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez (set by Alondra Fargas)
Set 2 · ST PTR 22-21 LOY MD · ST PTR 8% → 10%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Saint Peter'saway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Victoria PruvostOH	3	7	6	24	.042	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
21Julia WhaleyMB	3	4	2	20	.100	0	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	6.5
2Valeria Pagan MunozOH	3	5	8	32	-.094	1	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Karolina T. Rodriguez MendezMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Alondra FargasS	3	0	1	3	-.333	16	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
4Elina ArsovOH	1	1	2	6	-.167	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	2
1Indira T. Benitez DumengOPP	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	4
9Ioanna VerverakiL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	16	0	0	0	0
20Addison BaglioOH	2	4	4	18	.000	0	0	0	5	1	2	1	5
8Zumra YavuzS	2	0	0	1	.000	9	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
17Kylee GilbertL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
6Meleksu OzmenS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	26	123	.024	28	2	1	50	5	12	6	56

Loyola Marylandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
23Morgan CrawfordOH	3	12	0	26	.462	0	0	0	3	1	4	2	14
10Ava NepkinOH	3	12	4	28	.286	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	12
12Elsie AffulMB	3	9	2	19	.368	0	1	1	1	0	3	1.5	11.5
11Addie LoweOH	3	4	6	19	-.105	0	0	0	7	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Gabi VerdicchioS	3	0	0	1	.000	22	1	0	7	0	0	0	1
13Mariah SanabiaMB	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
7Sydnee PetersOPP	3	3	2	13	.077	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	4
6Addie HuberL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	2	1	21	1	0	0	2
2Madison MonahanS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
3Elise BocanegraL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
8Ellie JoffeMB	2	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	4
Team totals		44	18	121	.215	41	5	3	59	2	14	7	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ST PTR · LOY MD 7

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 4 ST PTRLOY MD 7

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 5 ST PTRLOY MD 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 ST PTRLOY MD 4

Bars above the line = Loyola Maryland leads, below = Saint Peter's leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Peter's

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	36%4/11
2	47%7/15	0%0/8
3	55%6/11	53%8/15
4	75%6/8	33%3/9
5	42%5/12	40%4/10
6	50%5/10	0%0/5
All	49%37/75	33%19/58

Loyola Maryland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	57%8/14
2	67%8/12	56%10/18
3	50%7/14	50%7/14
4	86%6/7	45%5/11
5	63%5/8	50%5/10
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	67%39/58	51%38/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	ST PTR-LOY MD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ST PTR	LOY MD×7	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.8
2	0-2	LOY MD	LOY MD×7	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.9
3	0-3	LOY MD	LOY MD×7	Attack err	Elina Arsov		+0.8
4	0-4	LOY MD	LOY MD×7	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.7
5	0-5	LOY MD	LOY MD×7	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz	blk Elsie Afful, Morgan Crawford	+0.5
6	0-6	LOY MD	LOY MD×7	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost	blk Morgan Crawford, Elsie Afful	+0.4
7	0-7	LOY MD	LOY MD×7	Attack err	Julia Whaley		+0.3
8	1-7	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+0.2
9	1-8	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Ava Nepkin	+0.2
10	1-9	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Attack err	Julia Whaley		+0.2
11	1-10	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost	blk Mariah Sanabia, Addie Lowe	+0.2
12	2-10	LOY MD	ST PTR×3	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
13	3-10	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.2
14	4-10	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Mariah Sanabia		+0.3
15	4-11	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Mariah Sanabia	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.2
16	4-12	LOY MD	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Madison Monahan	+0.2
17	5-12	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
18	5-13	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Madison Monahan	+0.2
19	6-13	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Elina Arsov	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.1
20	7-13	ST PTR	ST PTR	Ace	ST PTR server	aced Addie Huber	+0.3
21	7-14	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Madison Monahan	+0.2
22	7-15	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Ace	LOY MD server	aced Elina Arsov	+0.2
23	7-16	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.1
24	8-16	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Ioanna Ververaki	+0.1
25	8-17	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Sydnee Peters	set Madison Monahan	+0.1
26	8-18	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.1
27	8-19	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Ace	LOY MD server	aced Elina Arsov	+0.0
28	9-19	LOY MD	ST PTR×4	Attack err	Elise Bocanegra		+0.0
29	10-19	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Attack err	Addie Lowe		+0.0
30	11-19	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Attack err	Addie Lowe		+0.1
31	12-19	ST PTR	ST PTR×4	Attack err	Elsie Afful		+0.1
32	12-20	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.1
33	12-21	LOY MD	LOY MD	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.1
34	13-21	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Addie Lowe		+0.0
35	13-22	ST PTR	LOY MD×4	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.0
36	13-23	LOY MD	LOY MD×4	Serve err	LOY MD server		+0.0
37	13-24	LOY MD	LOY MD×4	Attack err	Elina Arsov	blk Morgan Crawford, Mariah Sanabia	+0.0
38	13-25	LOY MD	LOY MD×4	Ace	LOY MD server	aced Elina Arsov	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	LOY MD	LOY MD	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.7
2	1-1	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+0.6
3	1-2	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Addie Huber	+0.5
4	1-3	LOY MD	LOY MD	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+0.6
5	2-3	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Alondra Fargas	+0.5
6	2-4	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ellie Joffe	set Madison Monahan	+0.5
7	3-4	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.5
8	3-5	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+0.5
9	3-6	LOY MD	LOY MD	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.6
10	4-6	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.5
11	4-7	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.5
12	5-7	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.5
13	5-8	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.5
14	6-8	LOY MD	ST PTR	Serve err	LOY MD server		+0.5
15	6-9	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Addie Huber	+0.5
16	7-9	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+0.5
17	7-10	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ellie Joffe	set Madison Monahan	+0.5
18	7-11	LOY MD	LOY MD	Kill	Sydnee Peters	set Madison Monahan	+0.6
19	8-11	LOY MD	ST PTR×5	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.4
20	9-11	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.7
21	10-11	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Attack err	Ellie Joffe		+0.9
22	11-11	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Attack err	Ava Nepkin	blk Victoria Pruvost, Julia Whaley	+1.1
23	12-11	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Madison Monahan	+1.2
24	12-12	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Madison Monahan	+0.9
25	13-12	LOY MD	ST PTR×3	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+1.0
26	14-12	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+1.5
27	15-12	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Bad set	Madison Monahan		+1.5
28	15-13	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Madison Monahan	+1.0
29	16-13	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Zumra Yavuz	+1.3
30	17-13	ST PTR	ST PTR	Attack err	Elsie Afful		+1.6
31	17-14	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.9
32	17-15	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Gabi Verdicchio	+1.4
33	17-16	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Attack err	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng		+1.5
34	18-16	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Addie Lowe		+1.4
35	18-17	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng		+1.2
36	19-17	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Zumra Yavuz	+1.6
37	20-17	ST PTR	ST PTR	Ace	ST PTR server	aced Morgan Crawford	+2.0
38	20-18	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Addie Lowe	set Gabi Verdicchio	+1.1
39	20-19	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Madison Monahan	+1.8
40	20-20	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Ace	LOY MD server	aced Addison Baglio	+2.0
41	21-20	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+1.9
42	21-21	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost	blk Ellie Joffe, Morgan Crawford	+1.7
43	22-21	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+2.1
44	22-22	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Sydnee Peters	set Madison Monahan	+1.9
45	22-23	LOY MD	LOY MD	Ace	LOY MD server	aced Team	+2.7
46	23-23	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Valeria Pagan Munoz	+2.1
47	24-23	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+4.2
48	24-24	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Madison Monahan	+3.3
49	25-24	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Ava Nepkin	blk Addison Baglio, Julia Whaley	+3.3
50	25-25	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Gabi Verdicchio	+3.3
51	25-26	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Kill	Addie Lowe	set Gabi Verdicchio	+3.5
52	25-27	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+2.8
Set 3
1	0-1	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.3
2	1-1	LOY MD	ST PTR	Serve err	LOY MD server		+0.3
3	1-2	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+0.3
4	2-2	LOY MD	ST PTR×3	Serve err	LOY MD server		+0.3
5	3-2	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Alondra Fargas	+0.4
6	4-2	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Addie Lowe	blk Addison Baglio, Julia Whaley	+0.5
7	4-3	ST PTR	LOY MD	Serve err	ST PTR server		+0.3
8	5-3	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Alondra Fargas	+0.4
9	5-4	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+0.3
10	6-4	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.4
11	6-5	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz	blk Sydnee Peters, Ellie Joffe	+0.4
12	7-5	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Ava Nepkin	blk Julia Whaley, Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	+0.4
13	7-6	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.4
14	8-6	LOY MD	ST PTR	Bad set	Gabi Verdicchio		+0.4
15	8-7	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.4
16	9-7	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Addie Lowe	blk Valeria Pagan Munoz, Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	+0.4
17	9-8	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.4
18	10-8	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Ellie Joffe		+0.5
19	10-9	ST PTR	LOY MD×3	Kill	Addie Lowe	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.4
20	10-10	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Madison Monahan	+0.5
21	10-11	LOY MD	LOY MD×3	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+0.5
22	11-11	LOY MD	ST PTR	Bad set	Madison Monahan		+0.4
23	11-12	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Madison Monahan	+0.4
24	11-13	LOY MD	LOY MD	Kill	Ellie Joffe	set Addison Baglio	+0.5
25	12-13	LOY MD	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Sydnee Peters	blk Julia Whaley, Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	+0.4
26	13-13	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.6
27	14-13	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Ava Nepkin		+0.7
28	14-14	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Madison Monahan	+0.5
29	14-15	LOY MD	LOY MD	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz	blk Sydnee Peters, Elsie Afful	+0.6
30	15-15	LOY MD	ST PTR	Attack err	Sydnee Peters		+0.5
31	15-16	ST PTR	LOY MD×4	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Madison Monahan	+0.5
32	15-17	LOY MD	LOY MD×4	Attack err	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng		+0.6
33	15-18	LOY MD	LOY MD×4	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.5
34	15-19	LOY MD	LOY MD×4	Kill	Ava Nepkin	set Addie Huber	+0.3
35	16-19	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Zumra Yavuz	+0.2
36	16-20	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Elsie Afful	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.3
37	16-21	LOY MD	LOY MD	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+0.2
38	17-21	LOY MD	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.1
39	17-22	ST PTR	LOY MD	Attack err	Alondra Fargas		+0.1
40	17-23	LOY MD	LOY MD	Kill	Addie Lowe	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.1
41	18-23	LOY MD	ST PTR	Bad set	Gabi Verdicchio		+0.0
42	18-24	ST PTR	LOY MD	Kill	Morgan Crawford	set Gabi Verdicchio	+0.0
43	18-25	LOY MD	LOY MD	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Saint Peter's first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.