Ball State vs Toledo Volleyball: Toledo Wins 3-1 (Oct 2)

Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026ESPN+

1:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Toledo 54.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Toledo beat visiting Ball St. 3-1 (25-19, 25-18, 16-25, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Toledo's Sophie Catalano led with 11 kills, and Grace Freiberger added 19 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 2:50 PM CT · final Oct 2

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
BALLST	19	18	25	16	1
TOLEDO	25	25	16	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Toledo trailed 2–6 in the second and took that set, dropped the third, and won the match 3–1.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Toledo's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Toledo went in as RallyIQ's 55% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Ball St. 16–14 Toledo
5 straight Toledo points turned a 14–16 deficit into a 19–16 lead. The match swung to Toledo.
Toledo 48% → 66%
Turning point 2: Set 2 · Ball St. 15–12 Toledo
Down 12–15, Toledo scored 6 straight to lead 18–15.
Toledo 63% → 83%

Toledo above 50Ball St. belowMax swing 4.3%

Ball St.Toledo

Sideout %: Ball St. 52.2·Toledo 60.8
Break %: Ball St. 39.2·Toledo 47.8
Hitting: Ball St. .169·Toledo .258
Longest run: Ball St. 7·Toledo 6

Kayla Ozanich
10 kills on .280, 13.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Toledo above 50 · Ball St. below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Toledo — set 1, BALLST 16-17 TOLEDO. Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Janelle Green). TOLEDO win probability 54% → 59%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BALLST 36.4%63.6% TOLEDO

Ball St. wins

3-0

7.6%

3-1

13.1%

3-2

15.7%

Toledo wins

3-0

19.2%

3-1

24.4%

3-2

20.0%

BALLST break %: 39.5% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 42.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Jessica CostlowKill+4.3%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Janelle Green)
Set 1 · BALLST 16-17 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 54% → 59%
02
Audrey GeerAttack error+4.2%
Attack error by Audrey Geer
Set 1 · BALLST 16-18 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 59% → 63%
03
Jessica CostlowKill+4.1%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Grace Freiberger)
Set 4 · BALLST 9-10 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 77% → 81%
04
Kayla Ozanich&Jessica CostlowBlock+4.1%
Madison Buckley stuffed by Kayla Ozanich & Jessica Costlow
Set 1 · BALLST 16-16 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 50% → 54%
05
Sophie CatalanoKill+4.0%
Kill by Sophie Catalano (set by Janelle Green)
Set 4 · BALLST 9-11 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 81% → 85%
06
Sophie CatalanoAttack error+3.9%
Attack error by Sophie Catalano
Set 1 · BALLST 16-14 TOLEDO · BALLST 48% → 52%
07
Kayla OzanichKill+3.9%
Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · BALLST 15-16 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 72% → 76%
08
Sophie CatalanoKill+3.8%
Kill by Sophie Catalano (set by Jessica Costlow)
Set 4 · BALLST 8-8 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 73% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ball St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Gwen CrullMB	4	8	0	11	.727	1	0	0	3	0	0	5	2.5	10.5
11Tiffany SnookMB	4	9	4	27	.185	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	10
14Ava SmithOH	4	8	8	35	.000	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	0	8
17Camryn WiseMB	4	6	2	23	.174	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
8Lindsey GreenS	4	0	0	0	–	22	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
1Audrey GeerOH	2	0	2	13	-.154	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
21Madison BuckleyOPP	4	8	2	19	.316	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	10
4Kendall EdenL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Reese AxnessS	4	0	0	0	–	16	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
12Sophie LedbetterDS	4	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	21	0	0	0	0	0
9Mallory PikeOH	3	6	2	25	.160	0	2	2	9	0	0	0	0	8
3Elizabeth TabelingDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
10Leah PikeMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		46	20	154	.169	44	3	7	72	4	1	12	7	78

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Kayla OzanichMB	4	10	3	25	.280	1	1	0	5	0	5	2.5	13.5
22Sierra PertzbornMB	4	10	2	25	.320	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	11
23Lilly MerkMB	4	9	6	17	.176	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	9.5
6Jessica CostlowOH	4	8	3	29	.172	2	0	1	16	0	1	0.5	8.5
15Madelyn BachS	4	1	0	1	1.000	24	0	1	9	0	0	0	1
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	6	1	0	0	0
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	4	11	2	30	.300	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	12
3Janelle GreenS	4	3	0	3	1.000	17	1	2	12	0	0	0	4
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	6	2	1	19	0	0	0	2
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	3	1	16	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Olivia HeitkampOH	1	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
9Audrey DyasMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Meg JarrettL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		59	18	159	.258	52	4	8	74	3	12	6	91

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Ball St. vs Toledo

Season series · Toledo leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 2, 2026Ball St. at Toledo · Toledo won 3-1This match
Sat, Oct 3, 2026Ball St. at Toledo · Toledo won 3-1Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 BALLST · TOLEDO 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 BALLSTTOLEDO 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 BALLSTTOLEDO 6

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 7 BALLSTTOLEDO 4

Set 4

16-25

Longest run 3 BALLSTTOLEDO 5

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Ball St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Ball St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	53%8/15
2	69%9/13	44%7/16
3	40%8/20	36%5/14
4	50%8/16	27%3/11
5	70%7/10	43%6/14
6	40%6/15	22%2/9
All	52%47/90	39%31/79

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	53%8/15
2	60%9/15	40%6/15
3	67%8/12	33%4/12
4	73%8/11	56%10/18
5	62%8/13	47%7/15
6	46%6/13	53%8/15
All	61%48/79	48%43/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

169 rallies

#	BALLST-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.5
2	0-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn		+2.5
3	1-2	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+1.7
4	1-3	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.8
5	2-3	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+1.7
6	2-4	BALLST	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ball St.		+1.8
7	2-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Toledo		+2.5
8	3-5	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.6
9	4-5	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Audrey Geer	+2.5
10	4-6	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.9
11	4-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+2.6
12	5-7	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+1.7
13	5-8	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+1.8
14	6-8	TOLEDO	BALLST	Blocked	Jessica Costlow	blk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull	+1.7
15	6-9	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.9
16	7-9	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+1.7
17	7-10	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+1.9
18	8-10	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+1.8
19	8-11	BALLST	TOLEDO	Blocked	Ava Smith	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn	+2.0
20	9-11	TOLEDO	BALLST×3	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.8
21	10-11	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+2.9
22	11-11	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook		+3.3
23	11-12	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.4
24	12-12	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Sophie Ledbetter	+2.4
25	13-12	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+3.6
26	13-13	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+2.5
27	14-13	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+2.6
28	14-14	BALLST	TOLEDO	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+2.6
29	15-14	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+2.8
30	16-14	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+3.9
31	16-15	BALLST	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.5
32	16-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Blocked	Madison Buckley	blk Kayla Ozanich, Jessica Costlow	+4.1
33	16-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+4.3
34	16-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+4.2
35	16-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+3.7
36	17-19	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+2.1
37	17-20	BALLST	TOLEDO	Attack err	Camryn Wise		+2.7
38	17-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Lindsey Green	+2.9
39	18-21	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
40	18-22	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+2.0
41	19-22	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
42	19-23	BALLST	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.9
43	19-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Grace Freiberger	+1.2
44	19-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.7
2	1-1	TOLEDO	BALLST×3	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Reese Axness	+1.7
3	2-1	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+2.5
4	3-1	BALLST	BALLST×3	Ace	Ball St.		+2.5
5	3-2	BALLST	TOLEDO	Blocked	Ava Smith	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sophie Catalano	+1.7
6	4-2	TOLEDO	BALLST×3	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.8
7	5-2	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Gwen Crull	+2.5
8	6-2	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+2.3
9	6-3	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.5
10	6-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+2.3
11	7-4	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+1.8
12	7-5	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.7
13	7-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Camryn Wise		+2.6
14	8-6	TOLEDO	BALLST	Attack err	Lilly Merk		+2.0
15	8-7	BALLST	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ball St.		+1.9
16	8-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Toledo	aced Elizabeth Tabeling	+2.9
17	9-8	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+2.1
18	10-8	BALLST	BALLST	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Tiffany Snook, Gwen Crull	+3.0
19	10-9	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+2.0
20	11-9	TOLEDO	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+2.2
21	12-9	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Lilly Merk		+2.9
22	13-9	BALLST	BALLST×3	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Gwen Crull, Madison Buckley	+2.7
23	13-10	BALLST	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ball St.		+1.6
24	13-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Toledo		+2.7
25	14-11	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Reese Axness	+2.2
26	14-12	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+1.9
27	15-12	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+2.3
28	15-13	BALLST	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.9
29	15-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+3.3
30	15-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Ava Smith		+3.7
31	15-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+3.9
32	15-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+3.8
33	15-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Blocked	Madison Buckley	blk Kayla Ozanich, Ava Siefke	+3.4
34	16-18	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+1.9
35	16-19	BALLST	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.5
36	16-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+2.7
37	16-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Mallory Pike		+1.8
38	16-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
39	16-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Ace	Toledo		+0.4
40	17-23	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
41	18-23	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
42	18-24	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Jessica Costlow	+0.4
43	18-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
2	2-0	BALLST	BALLST	Bad set	Madelyn Bach		+1.5
3	2-1	BALLST	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
4	2-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Ava Smith		+1.5
5	2-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Ava Smith		+1.6
6	2-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.5
7	3-4	TOLEDO	BALLST	Blocked	Kayla Ozanich	blk Camryn Wise	+1.0
8	4-4	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+1.6
9	4-5	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.1
10	5-5	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
11	5-6	BALLST	TOLEDO	Blocked	Ava Smith	blk Sierra Pertzborn, Lilly Merk	+1.2
12	6-6	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+1.2
13	6-7	BALLST	TOLEDO	Bad set	Madison Buckley		+1.2
14	7-7	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+1.2
15	7-8	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Janelle Green	set Grace Freiberger	+1.2
16	8-8	TOLEDO	BALLST×7	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Reese Axness	+1.2
17	9-8	BALLST	BALLST×7	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.9
18	10-8	BALLST	BALLST×7	Ace	Ball St.		+1.9
19	11-8	BALLST	BALLST×7	Bad set	Janelle Green		+1.8
20	12-8	BALLST	BALLST×7	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.6
21	13-8	BALLST	BALLST×7	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Sophie Ledbetter	+1.4
22	14-8	BALLST	BALLST×7	Blocked	Jessica Costlow	blk Camryn Wise, Tiffany Snook	+1.1
23	14-9	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.6
24	14-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+1.1
25	15-10	TOLEDO	BALLST×4	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+1.0
26	16-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
27	17-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Ace	Ball St.	aced Avery Adamski	+0.8
28	18-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.5
29	18-11	BALLST	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ball St.		+0.2
30	19-11	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
31	19-12	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
32	20-12	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
33	20-13	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
34	21-13	TOLEDO	BALLST×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.2
35	22-13	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Lilly Merk		+0.1
36	23-13	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	·
37	23-14	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	·
38	24-14	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	·
39	24-15	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	·
40	24-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	·
41	25-16	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	·
Set 4
1	0-1	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+2.3
2	1-1	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+2.3
3	2-1	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+3.4
4	2-2	BALLST	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ball St.		+2.3
5	3-2	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+2.4
6	3-3	BALLST	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	Ball St.		+2.4
7	3-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Grace Freiberger	+3.5
8	3-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+3.4
9	4-5	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+2.3
10	5-5	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Sophie Ledbetter	+3.5
11	5-6	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Madelyn Bach	+2.5
12	6-6	TOLEDO	BALLST×3	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+2.5
13	7-6	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Sophie Ledbetter	+3.8
14	8-6	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+3.8
15	8-7	BALLST	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ball St.		+2.5
16	8-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Jessica Costlow	+3.8
17	9-8	TOLEDO	BALLST	Blocked	Olivia Heitkamp	blk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull	+2.8
18	9-9	BALLST	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Janelle Green	set Grace Freiberger	+2.8
19	9-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+4.1
20	9-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+4.0
21	9-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Janelle Green	set Janelle Green	+3.7
22	9-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+3.3
23	10-13	TOLEDO	BALLST	Serve err	Toledo		+1.9
24	10-14	BALLST	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+2.3
25	10-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Lindsey Green	+2.7
26	10-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+2.1
27	11-16	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
28	11-17	BALLST	TOLEDO	Blocked	Ava Smith	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sophie Catalano	+1.4
29	11-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+1.3
30	12-18	TOLEDO	BALLST	Bad set	Jessica Costlow		+0.6
31	12-19	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Madelyn Bach	set Kayla Ozanich	+0.9
32	12-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+0.7
33	13-20	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
34	13-21	BALLST	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
35	13-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk		+0.2
36	13-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Ava Smith		+0.1
37	14-23	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	·
38	15-23	BALLST	BALLST	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull	·
39	15-24	BALLST	TOLEDO	Attack err	Mallory Pike		+0.1
40	16-24	TOLEDO	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	·
41	16-25	BALLST	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	·

Score shown after each rally, Ball St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Toledo def. Ball St. 3–1

Toledo trailed 2–6 in the second and took that set, dropped the third, and won the match 3–1.