Ohio vs Toledo Volleyball: Toledo Wins 3-0 (Oct 23, 2026)

FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Toledo 88.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Toledo beat visiting Ohio 3-0 (25-19, 25-17, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Toledo's Sierra Pertzborn and Sophie Catalano led with 10 kills each, and Grace Freiberger added 11 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 2:50 PM CT · final Oct 23

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OHIO	19	17	22	0
TOLEDO	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.444 and 10 kills for Sierra Pertzborn as Toledo rolled past Ohio.

Win probability never moved more than 1.2 points on one rally; Ohio topped out at 12% in Set 1. Toledo went in as RallyIQ's 88% pick.

OhioToledo

Break %+16.1 pts
27.143.2
Points won on own serve: 32 of 74 vs 16 of 59. Ohio sided out 56.8% of the time.
Hitting+.183
.058.241
43 kills, 17 errors vs 29 kills, 23 errors.

Toledo above 50Ohio belowMax swing 1.2%

OhioToledo

Aces: Ohio 1·Toledo 1
Serve err: Ohio 7·Toledo 10
Blocks: Ohio 5·Toledo 60 BS · 10 BA vs 0 BS · 12 BA
Digs: Ohio 43·Toledo 44

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Toledo above 50 · Ohio below

Biggest swing: 1.2% to Ohio — set 1, OHIO 7-8 TOLEDO. Attack error by Jessica Costlow. TOLEDO win probability 91% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

OHIO 12.3%87.7% TOLEDO

Ohio wins

3-0

1.7%

3-1

3.8%

3-2

6.7%

Toledo wins

3-0

40.7%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.3%

OHIO break %: 35.6% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Jessica CostlowAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Jessica Costlow
Set 1 · OHIO 7-8 TOLEDO · OHIO 9% → 11%
02
Jessica CostlowKill+1.2%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Grace Freiberger)
Set 1 · OHIO 5-7 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 89% → 90%
03
Torre KildowAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Torre Kildow
Set 1 · OHIO 0-1 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 88% → 89%
04
Bailey BlairAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Bailey Blair
Set 1 · OHIO 8-11 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 90% → 91%
05
Sierra PertzbornKill+1.0%
Kill by Sierra Pertzborn (set by Rose Mahin)
Set 1 · OHIO 5-8 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 90% → 91%
06
ToledoService error+1.0%
Toledo service error
Set 1 · OHIO 5-5 TOLEDO · OHIO 11% → 12%
07
Lilly MerkKill+1.0%
Kill by Lilly Merk
Set 1 · OHIO 10-14 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 92% → 92%
08
Torre KildowKill+0.9%
Kill by Torre Kildow
Set 2 · OHIO 1-0 TOLEDO · OHIO 6% → 7%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ohioaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	7	5	23	.087	0	1	0	1	0	2	1	9
4Torre KildowOH	3	6	7	23	-.043	0	0	0	7	0	2	1	7
10Rowan KellyS	3	6	2	12	.333	9	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Emily WaddellMB	2	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	3
7Rose MahinOH	2	1	3	12	-.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
23Olivia GardnerMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
15Sierra EvansMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
3Gentry BrownOH	2	1	0	10	.100	2	0	1	6	0	0	0	1
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
22Lacy MarxL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
6Caroline CurranL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
18Lillie MeinhartS	2	0	0	0	–	9	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
1Cienna LapsleyMB	1	4	1	7	.429	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
13Bryn JankeS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	23	103	.058	27	1	7	43	1	10	5	58

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
23Lilly MerkMB	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	10.5
22Sierra PertzbornMB	3	10	2	18	.444	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	6	6	25	.000	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	8
6Jessica CostlowOH	3	5	3	18	.111	2	0	1	7	0	0	0	5
10Kayla OzanichMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Madelyn BachS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	1	9	0	0	0	0
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	3	10	3	20	.350	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	11
3Janelle GreenS	3	0	0	1	.000	20	1	4	3	0	0	0	1
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	2	11	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	17	108	.241	39	1	10	44	1	12	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Ohio vs Toledo

Season series · Toledo leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 23, 2026Ohio at Toledo · Toledo won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 24, 2026Ohio at Toledo · Toledo won 3-1Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 OHIO · TOLEDO 3

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 2 OHIOTOLEDO 3

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 OHIOTOLEDO 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 OHIOTOLEDO 3

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	45%5/11
2	62%8/13	20%2/10
3	50%8/16	20%2/10
4	58%7/12	38%5/13
5	55%6/11	13%1/8
6	63%5/8	14%1/7
All	57%42/74	27%16/59

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	30%3/10
2	73%8/11	50%8/16
3	62%8/13	43%6/14
4	100%7/7	42%5/12
5	75%6/8	54%7/13
6	86%6/7	33%3/9
All	73%43/59	43%32/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

133 rallies

#	OHIO-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+1.2
2	1-1	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.8
3	1-2	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
4	2-2	TOLEDO	OHIO	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Bailey Blair, Emily Waddell	+0.9
5	2-3	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.8
6	3-3	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+0.9
7	3-4	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.8
8	4-4	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.9
9	4-5	OHIO	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ohio		+0.9
10	5-5	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+1.0
11	5-6	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	Ohio		+0.9
12	5-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+1.2
13	5-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Rose Mahin	+1.0
14	6-8	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.7
15	7-8	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+1.2
16	7-9	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.9
17	8-9	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.9
18	8-10	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.9
19	8-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+1.1
20	9-11	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.7
21	9-12	OHIO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kendall Hickey		+0.8
22	10-12	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+0.8
23	10-13	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.8
24	10-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk		+1.0
25	11-14	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
26	11-15	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.6
27	11-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Rose Mahin	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sophie Catalano	+0.7
28	11-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.5
29	12-17	TOLEDO	OHIO	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+0.2
30	12-18	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
31	13-18	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
32	13-19	OHIO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.3
33	14-19	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+0.2
34	15-19	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.5
35	15-20	OHIO	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ohio		+0.4
36	16-20	TOLEDO	OHIO	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Bailey Blair, Emily Waddell	+0.3
37	16-21	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
38	16-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
39	16-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Emily Waddell	blk Ava Siefke, Lilly Merk	+0.1
40	17-23	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		·
41	18-23	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Kendall Hickey	+0.1
42	18-24	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.1
43	19-24	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		·
44	19-25	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	·
Set 2
1	1-0	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow		+0.9
2	1-1	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.6
3	1-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
4	1-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.7
5	2-3	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.5
6	3-3	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Caroline Curran	+0.9
7	3-4	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+0.6
8	3-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.8
9	4-5	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+0.6
10	4-6	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
11	4-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.7
12	4-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Olivia Gardner	blk Lilly Merk, Ava Siefke	+0.6
13	5-8	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+0.4
14	5-9	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.4
15	5-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.5
16	5-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.3
17	6-11	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+0.2
18	6-12	OHIO	TOLEDO	Blocked	Torre Kildow	blk Sophie Catalano, Lilly Merk	+0.2
19	6-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.2
20	7-13	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.1
21	7-14	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.2
22	8-14	TOLEDO	OHIO×4	Serve err	Toledo		+0.1
23	9-14	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+0.3
24	10-14	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	Bailey Blair		+0.4
25	11-14	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+0.6
26	11-15	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
27	11-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
28	11-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.3
29	12-17	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Gentry Brown	+0.2
30	12-18	OHIO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Rowan Kelly		+0.2
31	13-18	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+0.1
32	13-19	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
33	13-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Janelle Green		+0.2
34	14-20	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
35	14-21	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+0.1
36	14-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sierra Evans		+0.1
37	15-22	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	·
38	16-22	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	·
39	16-23	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
40	17-23	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Sierra Evans	set Lillie Meinhart	·
41	17-24	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	·
42	17-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	·
Set 3
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.4
2	1-1	TOLEDO	OHIO	Bad set	Madelyn Bach		+0.3
3	1-2	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Bad set	Torre Kildow		+0.3
4	1-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
5	1-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Cienna Lapsley		+0.3
6	2-4	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
7	2-5	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.2
8	2-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.3
9	3-6	TOLEDO	OHIO	Serve err	Toledo		+0.2
10	4-6	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.3
11	4-7	OHIO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.2
12	5-7	TOLEDO	OHIO	Blocked	Sophie Catalano	blk Torre Kildow, Sierra Evans	+0.2
13	5-8	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.2
14	5-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.3
15	6-9	TOLEDO	OHIO	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.2
16	6-10	OHIO	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ohio		+0.2
17	7-10	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Darbi Ricketts	+0.2
18	7-11	OHIO	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ohio		+0.2
19	8-11	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
20	8-12	OHIO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.2
21	8-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.2
22	9-13	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
23	9-14	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
24	10-14	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
25	10-15	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.2
26	11-15	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Gentry Brown	+0.1
27	11-16	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.2
28	11-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.2
29	12-17	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Darbi Ricketts	+0.1
30	13-17	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.2
31	13-18	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.2
32	14-18	TOLEDO	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
33	14-19	OHIO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
34	15-19	TOLEDO	OHIO	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.1
35	15-20	OHIO	TOLEDO	Serve err	Ohio		+0.1
36	16-20	TOLEDO	OHIO×3	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
37	17-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.2
38	18-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.4
39	18-21	OHIO	TOLEDO×3	Serve err	Ohio		+0.4
40	18-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.3
41	18-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Bailey Blair	blk Ava Siefke, Lilly Merk	+0.2
42	19-23	TOLEDO	OHIO×4	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	·
43	20-23	OHIO	OHIO×4	Blocked	Sophie Catalano	blk Sierra Evans, Torre Kildow	+0.1
44	21-23	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Lilly Merk		+0.3
45	22-23	OHIO	OHIO×4	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Sierra Evans, Rowan Kelly	+0.7
46	22-24	OHIO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Rowan Kelly		+0.8
47	22-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Toledo def. Ohio 3–0

.444 and 10 kills for Sierra Pertzborn as Toledo rolled past Ohio.