Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Toledo def. Ohio 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Toledo 89.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 3:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Toledo beat visiting Ohio 3-1 (25-14, 16-25, 25-20, 25-21) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Toledo's Ava Siefke led with 18 kills, and Grace Freiberger added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set1234Sets
OHIO142520211
TOLEDO251625253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Serve, receive, attack, block: Toledo won all four.

Win probability never moved more than 3.5 points on one rally; Ohio topped out at 22% in Set 4. Toledo went in as RallyIQ's 89% pick.

OhioToledo
  • Longest run+-1
    76

    Up 7–6 in the third set, Toledo scored 6 straight to make it 13–6. Final score of the set: 25–20.

Toledo above 50Ohio belowMax swing 3.5%

OhioToledo

Hitting
Ohio .208·Toledo .215
Aces
Ohio 3·Toledo 8
Serve err
Ohio 9·Toledo 7
Blocks
Ohio 3·Toledo 71 BS · 4 BA vs 1 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Ohio 55·Toledo 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Toledo above 50 · Ohio below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.5% TOLEDOrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.5% to Toledo — set 4, OHIO 18-18 TOLEDO. Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Madelyn Bach). TOLEDO win probability 86% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

OHIO 12.3%87.7% TOLEDO

Ohio wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.8%
3-2
6.7%

Toledo wins

3-0
40.7%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.3%
OHIO break %
35.6% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %
44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava SiefkeKill+3.5%

    Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Madelyn Bach)

    Set 4 · OHIO 18-18 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 86% → 89%

  2. 02
    Bailey BlairKill+3.5%

    Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Madelyn Bach)

    Set 4 · OHIO 17-14 TOLEDO · OHIO 15% → 19%

  3. 03
    Bailey BlairKill+3.4%

    Kill by Bailey Blair

    Set 3 · OHIO 19-20 TOLEDO · OHIO 12% → 15%

  4. 04
    Rowan KellyBad set+3.4%

    Bad set by Rowan Kelly

    Set 4 · OHIO 18-19 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 89% → 93%

  5. 05
    Ava SiefkeKill+3.3%

    Kill by Ava Siefke

    Set 4 · OHIO 18-17 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 82% → 86%

  6. 06
    Kayla OzanichAttack error+3.3%

    Attack error by Kayla Ozanich

    Set 4 · OHIO 18-14 TOLEDO · OHIO 19% → 22%

  7. 07
    Rose MahinKill+3.2%

    Kill by Rose Mahin (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 4 · OHIO 15-13 TOLEDO · OHIO 12% → 15%

  8. 08
    Lilly MerkKill+3.1%

    Kill by Lilly Merk (set by Madelyn Bach)

    Set 3 · OHIO 19-22 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 88% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ohioaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410831.06520260010.510.5
48318.278111100010.59.5
47215.333000201229
41011.0001610500002
12311-.091001510002
1014-.250002000000
4115.0002100300001
4000–2031720000
313430.3001105000014
38115.467000200008
22Lacy MarxL/DS
2000–000020000
1000–100000000
Team totals5023130.208443955814380
Toledohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418634.35300020031.519.5
48122.31800000031.59.5
44022.182131110010.57.5
44414.00000200132.56.5
4000–2202600000
33414-.07100010010.53.5
49320.30000030010.59.5
4000–4311300003
4000–1400700000
3000–020220002
2114.000000000001
2000–001300000
Team totals4719130.2154187483112791

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Ohio vs Toledo

Season series · Toledo leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 OHIO · TOLEDO 6

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 OHIOTOLEDO 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 7 OHIOTOLEDO 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 OHIOTOLEDO 6

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 3 OHIOTOLEDO 6

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Ohio

SlotSideout %Break %
1
37%10/27
53%9/17
2
56%10/18
33%5/15
3
64%9/14
38%6/16
4
50%8/16
31%4/13
5
88%7/8
38%5/13
6
86%6/7
14%1/7
All
56%50/90
37%30/81

Toledo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
58%11/19
2
77%10/13
57%13/23
3
56%9/16
44%7/16
4
60%9/15
36%5/14
5
88%7/8
30%3/10
6
86%6/7
13%1/8
All
63%51/81
44%40/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#OHIO-TOLEDOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TOLEDOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanich+1.1
20-2TOLEDOTOLEDOAceJessica Costlowaced Torre Kildow+1.0
31-2TOLEDOOHIOAttack errAva Siefke+0.7
41-3OHIOTOLEDOAttack errBailey Blair+0.7
51-4TOLEDOTOLEDOBad setGentry Brown+0.9
62-4TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.6
72-5OHIOTOLEDOServe errCienna Lapsley+0.6
83-5TOLEDOOHIOAttack errLilly Merk+0.6
93-6OHIOTOLEDO×3Attack errTorre Kildow+0.6
103-7TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errTorre Kildow+0.8
113-8TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+0.6
124-8TOLEDOOHIOKillSierra Evansset Rowan Kelly+0.4
135-8OHIOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+0.7
145-9OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+0.5
156-9TOLEDOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Caroline Curran+0.5
166-10OHIOTOLEDOBlockedCienna Lapsleyblk Jessica Costlow, Kayla Ozanich+0.5
177-10TOLEDOOHIOServe errMadelyn Bach+0.5
187-11OHIOTOLEDO×3KillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+0.5
197-12TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errGentry Brown+0.6
207-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.5
218-13TOLEDOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Lillie Meinhart+0.2
229-13OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Darbi Ricketts+0.5
239-14OHIOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.4
249-15TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+0.4
259-16TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.3
2610-16TOLEDOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
2710-17OHIOTOLEDO×4Serve errCienna Lapsley+0.2
2810-18TOLEDOTOLEDO×4KillLilly Merk+0.1
2910-19TOLEDOTOLEDO×4BlockedTorre Kildowblk Sophie Catalano, Lilly Merk+0.1
3010-20TOLEDOTOLEDO×4BlockedBailey Blairblk Lilly Merk, Ava Siefke·
3111-20TOLEDOOHIOKillSierra Evansset Lillie Meinhart·
3212-20OHIOOHIOAttack errLilly Merk·
3312-21OHIOTOLEDO×4KillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green·
3412-22TOLEDOTOLEDO×4AceAvery Adamski·
3512-23TOLEDOTOLEDO×4Attack errBailey Blair·
3612-24TOLEDOTOLEDO×4AceAvery Adamskiaced Lacy Marx·
3713-24TOLEDOOHIOKillSierra Evansset Rowan Kelly·
3814-24OHIOOHIOAttack errSophie Catalano·
3914-25OHIOTOLEDOServe errTorre Kildow·
Set 2
11-0OHIOOHIOBad setMadelyn Bach+0.9
21-1OHIOTOLEDO×3KillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+0.6
31-2TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Grace Freiberger+0.8
41-3TOLEDOTOLEDO×3AceJessica Costlow+0.7
52-3TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+0.5
62-4OHIOTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+0.5
73-4TOLEDOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+0.5
84-4OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.9
95-4OHIOOHIO×3Attack errAva Siefke+1.0
105-5OHIOTOLEDOServe errDarbi Ricketts+0.6
116-5TOLEDOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Lillie Meinhart+0.7
126-6OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+0.7
136-7TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errRose Mahin+0.9
147-7TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.7
157-8OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+0.6
168-8TOLEDOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.7
178-9OHIOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+0.7
188-10TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errBailey Blair+0.9
199-10TOLEDOOHIO×7KillLillie Meinhartset Avery Adamski+0.6
2010-10OHIOOHIO×7KillGentry Brownset Darbi Ricketts+1.1
2111-10OHIOOHIO×7KillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+1.3
2212-10OHIOOHIO×7Attack errSierra Pertzborn+1.4
2313-10OHIOOHIO×7BlockedSierra Pertzbornblk Sierra Evans, Gentry Brown+1.5
2414-10OHIOOHIO×7AceLillie Meinhartaced Avery Adamski+1.5
2515-10OHIOOHIO×7KillGentry Brownset Rose Mahin+1.4
2615-11OHIOTOLEDOAttack errSierra Evans+0.7
2716-11TOLEDOOHIO×3BlockedAva Siefkeblk Sierra Evans, Bailey Blair+1.0
2817-11OHIOOHIO×3Attack errAva Siefke+1.2
2918-11OHIOOHIO×3AceGentry Brown+0.9
3018-12OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Jessica Costlow+0.3
3119-12TOLEDOOHIO×3KillSierra Evansset Lillie Meinhart+0.6
3220-12OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Bailey Blair+0.5
3321-12OHIOOHIO×3Attack errAva Siefke+0.3
3421-13OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.1
3522-13TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.1
3623-13OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.1
3723-14OHIOTOLEDOServe errBailey Blair·
3823-15TOLEDOTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Grace Freiberger·
3924-15TOLEDOOHIOAttack errSophie Catalano·
4024-16OHIOTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green·
4125-16TOLEDOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly·
Set 3
10-1TOLEDOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+2.0
21-1TOLEDOOHIOKillSierra Evansset Lillie Meinhart+1.4
31-2OHIOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.3
42-2TOLEDOOHIOAttack errAva Siefke+1.5
52-3OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+1.4
62-4TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errEmily Waddell+1.9
73-4TOLEDOOHIOAttack errLilly Merk+1.3
83-5OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Grace Freiberger+1.3
94-5TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Gentry Brown+1.4
104-6OHIOTOLEDOBlockedRowan Kellyblk Lilly Merk+1.3
115-6TOLEDOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+1.4
125-7OHIOTOLEDOAttack errGentry Brown+1.3
136-7TOLEDOOHIOServe errMadelyn Bach+1.4
146-8OHIOTOLEDO×6KillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.4
156-9TOLEDOTOLEDO×6Attack errRose Mahin+1.8
166-10TOLEDOTOLEDO×6BlockedGentry Brownblk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn+1.5
176-11TOLEDOTOLEDO×6KillAva Siefke+1.1
186-12TOLEDOTOLEDO×6AceJessica Costlowaced Lacy Marx+0.8
196-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×6Attack errBailey Blair+0.6
207-13TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+0.3
218-13OHIOOHIOAttack errSierra Pertzborn+0.6
228-14OHIOTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+0.5
239-14TOLEDOOHIOKillSierra Evansset Lillie Meinhart+0.4
2410-14OHIOOHIOAttack errLilly Merk+0.9
2510-15OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.8
2610-16TOLEDOTOLEDOBad setRose Mahin+0.8
2711-16TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+0.4
2812-16OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.9
2912-17OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+0.8
3013-17TOLEDOOHIO×3KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+0.6
3114-17OHIOOHIO×3Attack errSophie Catalano+1.4
3215-17OHIOOHIO×3AceRose Mahinaced Avery Adamski+2.1
3315-18OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.7
3416-18TOLEDOOHIOServe errLilly Merk+1.5
3516-19OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.7
3617-19TOLEDOOHIOAttack errSierra Pertzborn+1.5
3717-20OHIOTOLEDOBad setLillie Meinhart+1.8
3818-20TOLEDOOHIOServe errJessica Costlow+1.5
3919-20OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blair+3.4
4019-21OHIOTOLEDO×4Serve errGentry Brown+2.8
4119-22TOLEDOTOLEDO×4KillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+3.1
4219-23TOLEDOTOLEDO×4AceGrace Freibergeraced Darbi Ricketts+1.7
4319-24TOLEDOTOLEDO×4AceGrace Freiberger+0.6
4420-24TOLEDOOHIOServe errGrace Freiberger+0.1
4520-25OHIOTOLEDOServe errDarbi Ricketts+0.2
Set 4
10-1OHIOTOLEDOAttack errSierra Evans+1.0
21-1TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Madelyn Bach+1.1
31-2OHIOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.0
42-2TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+1.1
53-2OHIOOHIOKillEmily Waddell+1.9
63-3OHIOTOLEDOServe errDarbi Ricketts+1.2
74-3TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+1.3
85-3OHIOOHIOKillRowan Kelly+2.2
95-4OHIOTOLEDOServe errBailey Blair+1.3
106-4TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.6
116-5OHIOTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+1.3
126-6TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errBailey Blair+2.0
137-6TOLEDOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.5
147-7OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.3
158-7TOLEDOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+1.5
168-8OHIOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.4
179-8TOLEDOOHIOAttack errOlivia Heitkamp+1.6
189-9OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+1.4
1910-9TOLEDOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Bailey Blair+1.7
2010-10OHIOTOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+1.5
2111-10TOLEDOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.7
2211-11OHIOTOLEDOAttack errRose Mahin+1.6
2311-12TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errRose Mahin+2.2
2412-12TOLEDOOHIOServe errMeg Jarrett+1.6
2513-12OHIOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.7
2613-13OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.7
2714-13TOLEDOOHIOServe errLilly Merk+2.0
2815-13OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.2
2915-14OHIOTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+1.9
3016-14TOLEDOOHIO×3KillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.4
3117-14OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Madelyn Bach+3.5
3218-14OHIOOHIO×3Attack errKayla Ozanich+3.3
3318-15OHIOTOLEDO×6KillOlivia Heitkampset Madelyn Bach+1.6
3418-16TOLEDOTOLEDO×6KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+2.9
3518-17TOLEDOTOLEDO×6KillAva Siefke+3.3
3618-18TOLEDOTOLEDO×6KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+3.5
3718-19TOLEDOTOLEDO×6Bad setRowan Kelly+3.4
3818-20TOLEDOTOLEDO×6BlockedBailey Blairblk Ava Siefke, Kayla Ozanich+3.0
3919-20TOLEDOOHIOKillSierra Evansset Rowan Kelly+1.8
4019-21OHIOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+2.1
4119-22TOLEDOTOLEDO×3BlockedBailey Blairblk Ava Siefke, Lilly Merk+2.3
4219-23TOLEDOTOLEDO×3AceGrace Freibergeraced Darbi Ricketts+1.3
4320-23TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+0.4
4420-24OHIOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Grace Freiberger+0.7
4521-24TOLEDOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+0.2
4621-25OHIOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).