Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on Midco Sports+

St. Thomas (MN) def. Omaha 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: St. Thomas (MN) 84.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

St. Thomas (MN) beat visiting Omaha 3-1 (24-26, 25-16, 25-18, 25-23) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. St. Thomas (MN)'s Anya Schmidt led with 15 kills.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
OMAHA261618231
STTHOM242525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

St. Thomas (MN) held Omaha to .119 hitting.

No single rally moved win probability more than 9.0 points. Omaha peaked at 38% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave St. Thomas (MN) 84% before first serve.

OmahaSt. Thomas (MN)
  • Break %+9.7 pts
    39.349.0

    48 of 98 on serve vs 33 of 84, so Omaha's sideout was 51.0%.

  • Hitting+.112
    .119.231

    Kills and errors: 58–22 vs 40–23.

  • Longest run+4
    59

    St. Thomas (MN) scored 9 straight in the fourth set to open the set 9–0. The set finished 25–23.

St. Thomas (MN) above 50Omaha belowMax swing 9.0%

OmahaSt. Thomas (MN)

Aces
Omaha 7·St. Thomas (MN) 9
Serve err
Omaha 7·St. Thomas (MN) 13
Blocks
Omaha 9·St. Thomas (MN) 81 BS · 16 BA vs 5 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Omaha 64·St. Thomas (MN) 68

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

St. Thomas (MN) above 50 · Omaha below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.0% OMAHArally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.0% to Omaha — set 1, OMAHA 26-24 STTHOM. Kill by Alizabeth Jacobsen (set by Maddie Stuesser). STTHOM win probability 74% → 65%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

OMAHA 16.0%84.0% STTHOM

Omaha wins

3-0
2.4%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
8.4%

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0
35.9%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
17.0%
OMAHA break %
38.6% vs this opp
STTHOM break %
46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Alizabeth Jacobsen (set by Maddie Stuesser)

    Set 1 · OMAHA 26-24 STTHOM · OMAHA 26% → 35%

  2. 02
    Audrey KoconKill+7.9%

    Kill by Audrey Kocon (set by Morgan Kealy)

    Set 1 · OMAHA 24-24 STTHOM · STTHOM 72% → 79%

  3. 03

    Ace by Ellie Gustafson on Lara Maric

    Set 4 · OMAHA 23-25 STTHOM · STTHOM 93% → 100%

  4. 04
    Ellie GustafsonAttack error+6.5%

    Attack error by Ellie Gustafson

    Set 4 · OMAHA 22-23 STTHOM · STTHOM 86% → 92%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ellie Gustafson (set by Morgan Kealy)

    Set 4 · OMAHA 23-24 STTHOM · STTHOM 87% → 93%

  6. 06
    St. Thomas (MN)Service error+5.6%

    St. Thomas (MN) service error

    Set 1 · OMAHA 25-24 STTHOM · OMAHA 21% → 26%

  7. 07

    Audrey Kocon stuffed by Dara Obeid & Hayden Hart

    Set 4 · OMAHA 21-20 STTHOM · OMAHA 12% → 18%

  8. 08
    Anya SchmidtAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Anya Schmidt

    Set 1 · OMAHA 23-21 STTHOM · OMAHA 24% → 29%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Omahaaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414645.178234131010.517.5
45213.23112220052.59.5
46116.31300010031.57.5
41011.00033101000213
4001.000000830000
4000–000400000
47527.0740002214310
41625-.200010400002
41011.0003011920001
35314.14300010010.55.5
Team totals4023143.1193977649116983
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415742.190313173111.517.5
414230.4000000012216
412639.15412011200014
44111.2734902110313.57.5
4000–032910003
4139-.22210010010.51.5
412325.36020020010.512.5
4000–2231600002
4000–013100001
4000–000000000
Team totals5822156.2315891368756899

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Omaha vs St. Thomas (MN)

Season series · St. Thomas (MN) leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 OMAHA · STTHOM 9

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 5 OMAHASTTHOM 3

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 OMAHASTTHOM 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 4 OMAHASTTHOM 6

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 5 OMAHASTTHOM 9

Bars above the line = St. Thomas (MN) leads, below = Omaha leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Omaha

SlotSideout %Break %
1
37%10/27
36%5/14
2
82%9/11
50%10/20
3
69%9/13
36%5/14
4
57%8/14
27%3/11
5
33%7/21
50%8/16
6
58%7/12
22%2/9
All
51%50/98
39%33/84

St. Thomas (MN)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
62%13/21
2
45%9/20
47%8/17
3
100%9/9
0%0/9
4
57%8/14
53%10/19
5
62%8/13
27%3/11
6
64%7/11
67%14/21
All
61%51/84
49%48/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#OMAHA-STTHOMSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1OMAHASTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.0
20-2STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Emma Nash+1.3
30-3STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillMorgan Kealyset Anya Schmidt+1.2
41-3STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+0.8
51-4OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+0.8
62-4STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+0.9
72-5OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Kira Brundage+0.9
83-5STTHOMOMAHABlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Alizabeth Jacobsen, Maddie Stuesser+0.9
93-6OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+0.9
104-6STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+0.9
114-7OMAHASTTHOM×3Attack errLara Maric+0.9
124-8STTHOMSTTHOM×3BlockedMadison Corfblk Morgan Kealy+1.1
134-9STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+0.9
145-9STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+0.6
155-10OMAHASTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+0.6
165-11STTHOMSTTHOMBlockedLara Maricblk Anya Schmidt, Addie Schmotzer+0.7
176-11STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+0.4
186-12OMAHASTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+0.5
197-12STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+0.4
208-12OMAHAOMAHABlockedAnya Schmidtblk Dara Obeid, Maddie Stuesser+0.8
218-13OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+0.7
229-13STTHOMOMAHAAttack errAudrey Kocon+0.6
239-14OMAHASTTHOMBad setMaddie Stuesser+0.7
249-15STTHOMSTTHOMAceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Sarah Galligan+0.7
2510-15STTHOMOMAHAKillFaith Venableset Anya Schmidt+0.4
2610-16OMAHASTTHOMAttack errMadison Corf+0.5
2711-16STTHOMOMAHA×5Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+0.4
2812-16OMAHAOMAHA×5BlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Alizabeth Jacobsen, Lara Maric+0.8
2913-16OMAHAOMAHA×5KillLara Maricset Maddie Stuesser+1.1
3014-16OMAHAOMAHA×5Attack errEllie Gustafson+1.5
3115-16OMAHAOMAHA×5AceOmahaaced Anya Schmidt+2.1
3215-17OMAHASTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.6
3315-18STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Emma Nash+1.9
3415-19STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Sarah Galligan+1.4
3516-19STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+0.8
3617-19OMAHAOMAHAAceOmahaaced Ellie Gustafson+1.6
3717-20OMAHASTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.5
3818-20STTHOMOMAHA×4KillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+1.2
3919-20OMAHAOMAHA×4Attack errAddie Schmotzer+2.5
4020-20OMAHAOMAHA×4KillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+3.5
4121-20OMAHAOMAHA×4Attack errMorgan Kealy+4.3
4221-21OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+3.0
4322-21STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+3.7
4423-21OMAHAOMAHAAttack errAnya Schmidt+5.4
4523-22OMAHASTTHOMBlockedFaith Venableblk Morgan Kealy, Heidi Wingate+2.7
4624-22STTHOMOMAHAAttack errHeidi Wingate+4.8
4724-23OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.6
4824-24STTHOMSTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+7.9
4925-24STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+5.6
5026-24OMAHAOMAHAKillAlizabeth Jacobsenset Maddie Stuesser+9.0
Set 2
10-1STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errLara Maric+2.4
21-1STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+1.9
31-2OMAHASTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.7
42-2STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+1.9
53-2OMAHAOMAHAAceOmahaaced Anya Schmidt+2.9
63-3OMAHASTTHOMServe errOmaha+2.0
74-3STTHOMOMAHAKillDara Obeidset Maddie Stuesser+2.2
84-4OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.0
94-5STTHOMSTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.7
105-5STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.1
115-6OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.0
126-6STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.1
136-7OMAHASTTHOM×3KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.0
146-8STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errMadison Corf+2.6
156-9STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)+2.3
167-9STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+1.6
177-10OMAHASTTHOMServe errOmaha+1.7
188-10STTHOMOMAHAKillDara Obeidset Maddie Stuesser+1.6
198-11OMAHASTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.7
208-12STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillMorgan Kealyset Ellie Gustafson+2.0
218-13STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Emma Nash+1.5
229-13STTHOMOMAHAKillSarah Galliganset Madison Corf+1.0
2310-13OMAHAOMAHAAceOmahaaced Anya Schmidt+1.8
2410-14OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.5
2511-14STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.4
2611-15OMAHASTTHOM×4KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.5
2711-16STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errMadison Corf+1.6
2811-17STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+1.1
2911-18STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillEllie Gustafsonset Audrey Kocon+0.7
3012-18STTHOMOMAHAKillAlizabeth Jacobsenset Maddie Stuesser+0.3
3113-18OMAHAOMAHAKillLara Maricset Sarah Galligan+0.7
3213-19OMAHASTTHOM×4KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+0.7
3313-20STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedFaith Venableblk Addie Schmotzer, Audrey Kocon+0.6
3413-21STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillEllie Gustafsonset Audrey Kocon+0.3
3513-22STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errFaith Venable+0.1
3614-22STTHOMOMAHAKillHayden Hartset Sarah Galligan·
3714-23OMAHASTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy·
3815-23STTHOMOMAHAKillAlizabeth Jacobsenset Maddie Stuesser·
3915-24OMAHASTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy·
4016-24STTHOMOMAHAKillLara Maricset Maddie Stuesser·
4116-25OMAHASTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy·
Set 3
10-1OMAHASTTHOM×3KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.7
20-2STTHOMSTTHOM×3AceKira Brundageaced Madison Corf+2.1
30-3STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.9
41-3STTHOMOMAHA×4Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.4
52-3OMAHAOMAHA×4BlockedHeidi Wingateblk Madison Corf, Alizabeth Jacobsen+2.2
63-3OMAHAOMAHA×4BlockedAnya Schmidtblk Lara Maric, Alizabeth Jacobsen+2.5
74-3OMAHAOMAHA×4Attack errAnya Schmidt+2.9
84-4OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.0
95-4STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.2
105-5OMAHASTTHOM×3KillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.0
115-6STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillEllie Gustafsonset Kira Brundage+2.7
125-7STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errMadison Corf+2.4
136-7STTHOMOMAHA×3KillLara Maricset Maddie Stuesser+1.8
147-7OMAHAOMAHA×3KillDara Obeidset Maddie Stuesser+2.9
158-7OMAHAOMAHA×3Attack errAudrey Kocon+3.3
168-8OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.2
179-8STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+2.5
1810-8OMAHAOMAHAKillHayden Hartset Maddie Stuesser+3.7
1910-9OMAHASTTHOM×3Serve errOmaha+2.4
2010-10STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errHayden Hart+3.4
2110-11STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+3.2
2211-11STTHOMOMAHAKillHayden Hartset Maddie Stuesser+2.5
2312-11OMAHAOMAHAKillHayden Hartset Maddie Stuesser+3.8
2412-12OMAHASTTHOMAttack errAlizabeth Jacobsen+2.6
2512-13STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errHayden Hart+3.5
2613-13STTHOMOMAHAAttack errEllie Gustafson+2.7
2713-14OMAHASTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+2.6
2813-15STTHOMSTTHOM×3BlockedLara Maricblk Anya Schmidt+3.3
2913-16STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.8
3014-16STTHOMOMAHAKillAlizabeth Jacobsenset Maddie Stuesser+1.9
3115-16OMAHAOMAHABlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Lara Maric+3.3
3215-17OMAHASTTHOMAttack errLara Maric+2.6
3316-17STTHOMOMAHAKillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+2.6
3416-18OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Heidi Wingate+2.8
3517-18STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.7
3617-19OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+3.0
3718-19STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.9
3818-20OMAHASTTHOM×6Serve errOmaha+3.2
3918-21STTHOMSTTHOM×6BlockedDara Obeidblk Addie Schmotzer+3.5
4018-22STTHOMSTTHOM×6KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+2.3
4118-23STTHOMSTTHOM×6BlockedHayden Hartblk Morgan Kealy+1.2
4218-24STTHOMSTTHOM×6KillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+0.4
4318-25STTHOMSTTHOM×6Attack errFaith Venable+0.1
Set 4
10-1STTHOMSTTHOM×9AceEllie Gustafsonaced Lara Maric+1.8
20-2STTHOMSTTHOM×9KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.6
30-3STTHOMSTTHOM×9KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.4
40-4STTHOMSTTHOM×9KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.2
50-5STTHOMSTTHOM×9KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.0
60-6STTHOMSTTHOM×9KillMorgan Kealyset Anya Schmidt+0.8
70-7STTHOMSTTHOM×9Attack errFaith Venable+0.6
80-8STTHOMSTTHOM×9Attack errAlizabeth Jacobsen+0.5
90-9STTHOMSTTHOM×9BlockedFaith Venableblk Morgan Kealy+0.3
101-9STTHOMOMAHA×5KillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+0.2
112-9OMAHAOMAHA×5Attack errAnya Schmidt+0.4
123-9OMAHAOMAHA×5Attack errAddie Schmotzer+0.5
134-9OMAHAOMAHA×5KillLara Maricset Alizabeth Jacobsen+0.7
145-9OMAHAOMAHA×5Attack errAnya Schmidt+1.0
155-10OMAHASTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+0.8
166-10STTHOMOMAHAKillLara Maricset Maddie Stuesser+0.7
176-11OMAHASTTHOMKillMorgan Kealyset Anya Schmidt+0.8
187-11STTHOMOMAHAAttack errHeidi Wingate+0.7
197-12OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+0.8
207-13STTHOMSTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+0.9
218-13STTHOMOMAHABad setMorgan Kealy+0.5
228-14OMAHASTTHOMKillHeidi Wingateset Morgan Kealy+0.6
239-14STTHOMOMAHAKillMaddie Stuesserset Sarah Galligan+0.5
249-15OMAHASTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+0.6
2510-15STTHOMOMAHA×3KillAlizabeth Jacobsenset Maddie Stuesser+0.5
2611-15OMAHAOMAHA×3BlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Alizabeth Jacobsen, Lara Maric+1.0
2712-15OMAHAOMAHA×3AceMaddie Stuesseraced Taylor McNear+1.4
2812-16OMAHASTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.2
2913-16STTHOMOMAHAKillHayden Hartset Maddie Stuesser+1.0
3013-17OMAHASTTHOMAttack errMadison Corf+1.2
3114-17STTHOMOMAHA×4KillMadison Corfset Maddie Stuesser+1.0
3215-17OMAHAOMAHA×4AceAlizabeth Jacobsenaced Ellie Gustafson+2.0
3316-17OMAHAOMAHA×4BlockedAnya Schmidtblk Lara Maric, Dara Obeid+2.7
3417-17OMAHAOMAHA×4KillDara Obeidset Maddie Stuesser+3.4
3517-18OMAHASTTHOMServe errOmaha+2.6
3618-18STTHOMOMAHAKillLara Maricset Madison Corf+2.7
3718-19OMAHASTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.8
3818-20STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+3.5
3919-20STTHOMOMAHA×3KillDara Obeidset Maddie Stuesser+2.3
4020-20OMAHAOMAHA×3AceMadison Corf+4.3
4121-20OMAHAOMAHA×3BlockedAudrey Koconblk Dara Obeid, Hayden Hart+5.4
4221-21OMAHASTTHOMServe errOmaha+3.7
4322-21STTHOMOMAHAKillDara Obeidset Maddie Stuesser+4.6
4422-22OMAHASTTHOMServe errOmaha+4.2
4522-23STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errEllie Gustafson+6.5
4623-23STTHOMOMAHAServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.6
4723-24OMAHASTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+5.8
4823-25STTHOMSTTHOMAceEllie Gustafsonaced Lara Maric+6.8

Score shown after each rally, Omaha first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).