Middle Tenn. vs Western Ky. Volleyball: Western Ky. Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Ky. 84.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 10:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Western Ky. beat visiting Middle Tenn. 3-0 (25-23, 25-13, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Kaira Knox led Western Ky. with 11 kills; Middle Tenn.'s Gabrielle Clinkscale had a match-high 12.

Data through Nov 3, 9:20 PM CT · final Oct 16

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MIDTEN	23	13	22	0
W KY	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

5 aces from Kaira Knox in a Western Ky. rout.

Win probability never moved more than 5.4 points on one rally; Middle Tenn. topped out at 30% in Set 1. Western Ky. went in as RallyIQ's 84% pick.

Middle Tenn.Western Ky.

Break %+14.3 pts
35.049.3
36 of 73 on serve vs 21 of 60, so Middle Tenn.'s sideout was 50.7%.
Hitting+.157
.129.286
Kills and errors: 38–10 vs 31–18.

Western Ky. above 50Middle Tenn. belowMax swing 5.4%

Middle Tenn.Western Ky.

Aces: Middle Tenn. 3·Western Ky. 10
Serve err: Middle Tenn. 5·Western Ky. 11
Blocks: Middle Tenn. 3·Western Ky. 70 BS · 6 BA vs 4 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Middle Tenn. 41·Western Ky. 43

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Western Ky. above 50 · Middle Tenn. below

Biggest swing: 5.4% to Western Ky. — set 1, MIDTEN 23-25 W KY. Kill by Kaira Knox (set by Kate Rush). W KY win probability 86% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIDTEN 12.0%88.0% W KY

Middle Tenn. wins

3-0

1.7%

3-1

3.7%

3-2

6.6%

Western Ky. wins

3-0

41.2%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.2%

MIDTEN break %: 38.2% vs this opp
W KY break %: 47.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kaira KnoxKill+5.4%
Kill by Kaira Knox (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · MIDTEN 23-25 W KY · W KY 86% → 92%
02
Aubrey SearsKill+5.1%
Kill by Aubrey Sears (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · MIDTEN 22-23 W KY · W KY 80% → 85%
03
Kaira KnoxKill+4.7%
Kill by Kaira Knox (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · MIDTEN 23-24 W KY · W KY 82% → 86%
04
Alivia SkidmoreBlock+4.1%
Jaslyn Reed stuffed by Alivia Skidmore
Set 1 · MIDTEN 21-21 W KY · W KY 76% → 81%
05
Alivia SkidmoreAttack error+3.7%
Attack error by Alivia Skidmore
Set 1 · MIDTEN 22-21 W KY · MIDTEN 19% → 23%
06
Izzy Van De WieleBad set+3.7%
Bad set by Izzy Van De Wiele
Set 1 · MIDTEN 23-23 W KY · MIDTEN 15% → 18%
07
Kaira KnoxBlock+3.4%
Sophia Henry stuffed by Kaira Knox
Set 1 · MIDTEN 21-20 W KY · W KY 73% → 76%
08
Izzy Van De WieleKill+3.4%
Kill by Izzy Van De Wiele (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · MIDTEN 22-22 W KY · W KY 77% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Middle Tenn.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Sophia HenryOH	3	8	6	32	.063	0	1	2	8	2	0	0	9
13Michaela DlouháMB	3	6	3	13	.231	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
16Caroline MacanderS	3	1	0	5	.200	17	1	0	9	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Logan CarrMB	3	0	4	8	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
14Kendall Mignerey	3	0	1	4	-.250	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0
7Jaslyn ReedOH	2	2	3	10	-.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
3Gabrielle ClinkscaleOH	3	12	1	23	.478	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
4Addison BurksL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	2
8Marianne GarciaL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	0	14	1	0	0	0
19Danit CohenS	2	0	0	1	.000	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
17Danielle Lee	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
0Ellie WattsOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
Team totals		31	18	101	.129	29	3	5	41	10	6	3	58

Western Ky.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Kaira KnoxOH	3	11	2	28	.321	0	5	2	4	0	1	2	2	18
17Alivia SkidmoreOH	3	6	2	17	.235	1	2	1	6	0	1	0	1	9
22Faith YoungOH	3	7	2	12	.417	0	1	3	3	0	0	2	1	9
20Kate RushS	3	6	1	15	.333	31	0	2	5	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
25Izzy Van De WieleMB	3	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
3Kennedy CherryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
21Eliza McKnightOH	3	3	0	10	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
18Aubrey SearsOH	3	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Cali FosterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
2Tayler BaronL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	13	1	0	0	0	0
15Izzie DelacherS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Sonja LaaksonenOH	1	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Kendall MellerOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Camila AdamsDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	10	98	.286	37	10	11	43	3	4	6	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Middle Tenn. vs Western Ky.

Season series · Western Ky. leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 16, 2026Middle Tenn. at Western Ky. · Western Ky. won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 17, 2026Middle Tenn. at Western Ky. · Western Ky. won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MIDTEN · W KY 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 MIDTENW KY 3

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 3 MIDTENW KY 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 MIDTENW KY 4

Bars above the line = Western Ky. leads, below = Middle Tenn. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Middle Tenn.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	30%3/10
2	67%8/12	11%1/9
3	55%6/11	38%5/13
4	45%5/11	25%2/8
5	45%5/11	55%6/11
6	56%5/9	44%4/9
All	51%37/73	35%21/60

Western Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	63%10/16
2	73%8/11	43%6/14
3	73%8/11	43%6/14
4	71%5/7	55%6/11
5	42%5/12	44%4/9
6	56%5/9	44%4/9
All	65%39/60	49%36/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

133 rallies

#	MIDTEN-W KY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.0
2	0-2	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.3
3	1-2	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Caroline Macander	+1.0
4	1-3	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Izzy Van De Wiele	set Kate Rush	+0.9
5	2-3	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Alivia Skidmore		+1.0
6	3-3	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Ace	Sophia Henry	aced Cali Foster	+1.5
7	3-4	MIDTEN	W KY	Bad set	Addison Burks		+1.1
8	4-4	W KY	MIDTEN	Attack err	Faith Young		+1.2
9	5-4	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+1.8
10	5-5	MIDTEN	W KY	Serve err	Michaela Dlouhá		+1.2
11	6-5	W KY	MIDTEN	Attack err	Kate Rush		+1.4
12	6-6	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.3
13	7-6	W KY	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	+1.4
14	8-6	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Bad set	Kennedy Cherry		+2.1
15	9-6	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry		+2.2
16	9-7	MIDTEN	W KY	Attack err	Sophia Henry		+1.4
17	9-8	W KY	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+2.0
18	10-8	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Faith Young		+1.7
19	11-8	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Caroline Macander	+2.4
20	11-9	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.5
21	12-9	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Kate Rush		+1.8
22	13-9	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Marianne Garcia	+2.4
23	13-10	MIDTEN	W KY	Attack err	Sophia Henry		+1.4
24	13-11	W KY	W KY	Ace	Alivia Skidmore	aced Addison Burks	+2.2
25	14-11	W KY	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Caroline Macander	+2.0
26	15-11	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Marianne Garcia	+2.6
27	16-11	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Blocked	Sonja Laaksonen	blk Michaela Dlouhá, Caroline Macander	+2.3
28	16-12	MIDTEN	W KY	Attack err	Sophia Henry		+1.2
29	17-12	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Marianne Garcia	+1.8
30	17-13	MIDTEN	W KY×3	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.2
31	17-14	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	Kaira Knox	aced Sophia Henry	+2.1
32	17-15	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	Kaira Knox	aced Sophia Henry	+2.4
33	18-15	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Kaira Knox		+2.4
34	19-15	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	+2.9
35	19-16	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.5
36	20-16	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	+2.2
37	20-17	MIDTEN	W KY	Blocked	Sophia Henry	blk Faith Young, Kate Rush	+1.4
38	20-18	W KY	W KY	Bad set	Caroline Macander		+2.6
39	21-18	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Faith Young		+2.8
40	21-19	MIDTEN	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.9
41	21-20	W KY	W KY×3	Blocked	Sophia Henry	blk Kaira Knox	+3.4
42	21-21	W KY	W KY×3	Blocked	Jaslyn Reed	blk Alivia Skidmore	+4.1
43	22-21	W KY	MIDTEN	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+3.7
44	22-22	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Izzy Van De Wiele	set Kate Rush	+3.4
45	22-23	W KY	W KY	Kill	Aubrey Sears	set Kate Rush	+5.1
46	23-23	W KY	MIDTEN	Bad set	Izzy Van De Wiele		+3.7
47	23-24	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+4.7
48	23-25	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+5.4
Set 2
1	0-1	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Tayler Baron	+1.0
2	0-2	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.9
3	0-3	W KY	W KY×3	Blocked	Logan Carr	blk Izzy Van De Wiele	+0.8
4	1-3	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Kate Rush		+0.6
5	1-4	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Izzy Van De Wiele	set Kate Rush	+0.6
6	1-5	W KY	W KY	Bad set	Kendall Mignerey		+0.7
7	2-5	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Jaslyn Reed	set Caroline Macander	+0.5
8	2-6	MIDTEN	W KY×4	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
9	2-7	W KY	W KY×4	Bad set	Caroline Macander		+0.6
10	2-8	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Michaela Dlouhá		+0.5
11	2-9	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.4
12	3-9	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Danit Cohen	+0.2
13	3-10	MIDTEN	W KY×4	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.3
14	3-11	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	Kaira Knox	aced Addison Burks	+0.3
15	3-12	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	Kaira Knox	aced Ellie Watts	+0.2
16	3-13	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	Kaira Knox	aced Ellie Watts	+0.1
17	4-13	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	+0.1
18	4-14	MIDTEN	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush		+0.1
19	4-15	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Alivia Skidmore	+0.1
20	4-16	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Kennedy Cherry	·
21	5-16	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	·
22	6-16	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Blocked	Kaira Knox	blk Gabrielle Clinkscale, Logan Carr	·
23	6-17	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Kennedy Cherry	·
24	7-17	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	·
25	8-17	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Jaslyn Reed	set Caroline Macander	·
26	8-18	MIDTEN	W KY×4	Attack err	Logan Carr		·
27	8-19	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Sophia Henry		·
28	8-20	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Jaslyn Reed		·
29	8-21	W KY	W KY×4	Blocked	Jaslyn Reed	blk Izzy Van De Wiele, Kaira Knox	·
30	9-21	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Caroline Macander	·
31	9-22	MIDTEN	W KY	Attack err	Kendall Mignerey		·
32	10-22	W KY	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Caroline Macander	·
33	11-22	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Kendall Mignerey	·
34	12-22	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Ace	Addison Burks	aced Cali Foster	·
35	12-23	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	·
36	13-23	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Tayler Baron		·
37	13-24	MIDTEN	W KY	Serve err	Sophia Henry		·
38	13-25	W KY	W KY	Ace	Izzie Delacher	aced Addison Burks	·
Set 3
1	0-1	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.4
2	0-2	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.5
3	1-2	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Caroline Macander	+0.4
4	1-3	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Izzy Van De Wiele	set Kate Rush	+0.3
5	1-4	W KY	W KY	Ace	Alivia Skidmore	aced Marianne Garcia	+0.4
6	2-4	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Caroline Macander	set Addison Burks	+0.3
7	2-5	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.3
8	2-6	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.4
9	3-6	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Tayler Baron		+0.3
10	3-7	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.3
11	4-7	W KY	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Addison Burks		+0.3
12	5-7	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Marianne Garcia	+0.4
13	6-7	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Blocked	Aubrey Sears	blk Logan Carr, Danielle Lee	+0.5
14	6-8	MIDTEN	W KY×4	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.4
15	6-9	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Kate Rush	set Tayler Baron	+0.5
16	6-10	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Logan Carr		+0.4
17	6-11	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	Kennedy Cherry		+0.3
18	7-11	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Danit Cohen	+0.2
19	7-12	MIDTEN	W KY×3	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.2
20	7-13	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	Faith Young	aced Kendall Mignerey	+0.2
21	7-14	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Kennedy Cherry	+0.2
22	8-14	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Faith Young		+0.1
23	8-15	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.1
24	9-15	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Danit Cohen	+0.1
25	9-16	MIDTEN	W KY	Serve err	Addison Burks		+0.1
26	10-16	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Caroline Macander	+0.1
27	10-17	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.1
28	11-17	W KY	MIDTEN	Serve err	Tayler Baron		+0.1
29	12-17	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+0.2
30	12-18	MIDTEN	W KY	Blocked	Michaela Dlouhá	blk Kaira Knox, Faith Young	+0.2
31	13-18	W KY	MIDTEN×4	Serve err	Kaira Knox		+0.1
32	14-18	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Attack err	Faith Young		+0.3
33	15-18	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Ace	Caroline Macander	aced Tayler Baron	+0.4
34	16-18	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Caroline Macander	+0.6
35	16-19	MIDTEN	W KY	Attack err	Gabrielle Clinkscale		+0.5
36	16-20	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Logan Carr		+0.5
37	17-20	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Danit Cohen	+0.3
38	18-20	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Bad set	Alivia Skidmore		+0.6
39	18-21	MIDTEN	W KY	Serve err	Kendall Mignerey		+0.6
40	19-21	W KY	MIDTEN	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+0.4
41	20-21	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Danielle Lee	set Danit Cohen	+0.9
42	20-22	MIDTEN	W KY	Attack err	Danit Cohen		+0.9
43	20-23	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.9
44	21-23	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Danit Cohen	+0.4
45	21-24	MIDTEN	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.6
46	22-24	W KY	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Caroline Macander	+0.3
47	22-25	MIDTEN	W KY	Serve err	Sophia Henry		+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Middle Tenn. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Western Ky. def. Middle Tenn. 3–0

5 aces from Kaira Knox in a Western Ky. rout.